The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

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Elon and the dangers of artificial ignorance

Irregular Thoughts • 19 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Elon Musk and experts call for a pause in developing powerful AI systems to assess risks and benefits.
  2. AI is just software processing data and spitting out results; it doesn't think or make autonomous decisions.
  3. Some AI models like ChatGPT and Bard support a pause in AI development to ensure systems are not harmful to humans.

Trusted AI #007 - My thoughts on AI Existentialism

Trusted • 19 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. In the near-term, the risk of AI causing extinction is extremely unlikely based on current knowledge.
  2. In the long-term, the risk of extinction from AI is higher but uncertain, requiring more research and caution.
  3. Efforts to reduce uncertainty about AI risks are crucial, but hasty actions could potentially do more harm than good.

There’s a 110 Percent Chance That Our Discomfort With Statistics Is Costing Us

I Might Be Wrong • 10 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
🚌 Education Risk Assessment
  1. Many people struggle to understand statistics and probability, which can lead to poor decision-making. For example, weather forecasts often misrepresent low probabilities to avoid backlash from confused audiences.
  2. Vague language used in warnings, like 'possible' or 'could', can create misunderstanding and result in people ignoring important alerts. It would be better to provide specific probabilities so that people can respond appropriately.
  3. Improving statistical education could help people make better choices and improve communication between authorities and the public. Clear numbers would be more useful than unclear descriptions.
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Avian Influenza: Updated Threat Assessment

Who is Robert Malone • 19 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. The threat from Avian Influenza is considered low, similar to previous assessments. Recent cases mostly involve those working closely with infected animals.
  2. There is a concern about how fear and misinformation in the media can influence public perception of health threats. This can lead to unnecessary panic or government responses.
  3. California's state of emergency regarding bird flu may be influenced by interests in the state's testing and monitoring industry rather than actual health risks.

URGENT: Giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behavior in their young, a new study shows

Unreported Truths • 48 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. A study showed that giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behaviors in their offspring.
  2. Pregnant women were excluded from the initial vaccine trials, but they have been strongly encouraged to get the shots due to Covid risks associated with pregnancy.
  3. Understanding the potential impact of vaccines on autism and brain changes in offspring would require extensive and costly research.

The DEATH safety signals in VAERS were obvious if anyone looked

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. There was a significant increase in death reports after the COVID vaccine was given, over 100 times higher than normal for other vaccines. This raises questions about vaccine safety.
  2. The number of death reports linked with the COVID vaccine is way higher compared to all other vaccines combined, suggesting something might be unusual with the COVID vaccine.
  3. Healthcare providers are required to report any deaths they suspect are related to vaccines, but many have reported difficulties and frustrations with the reporting process, indicating a possible problem with the system.

The latest round in the $2M debate

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. The vaccines may have caused more COVID cases and deaths than they helped prevent. Data shows that vaccinated individuals had higher case rates during 2021 and 2022.
  2. Some studies suggest that vaccines may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes, like myocarditis and all-cause mortality, especially with certain brands.
  3. There is ongoing debate and skepticism surrounding vaccine safety, with some polls indicating that a significant number of people believe vaccines have contributed to deaths similar to COVID itself.

Who’s Responsible for the Toxic Train Disaster in East Palestine, Ohio?

The Status Kuo • 3 HN points • 16 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Risk Assessment
  1. The blame game around the toxic train disaster in East Palestine, Ohio, has become highly political, with Republicans targeting the infrastructure bill and current administration.
  2. The ultimate responsibility for the disaster lies with Norfolk Southern, due to a combination of mechanical failures, inadequate safety measures, and regulatory loopholes.
  3. There is a need to revisit and strengthen regulations regarding the transportation of hazardous materials by rail to prioritize public safety over industry interests.

What's Wrong With This Picture (Team Training Exercise)

The Rotten Apple • 10 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🍲 Food & Drink Risk Assessment
  1. The post discusses a team training exercise for front-line workers in food service to identify food safety issues.
  2. The activity aims to get team members thinking about food safety, engage in a risk assessment, and learn about food safety principles such as hygienic design and hand hygiene.
  3. The exercise involves showing an image of someone slicing bacon and asking team members to identify potential food safety problems, errors, or non-conformities.

New Zealand OIA request reveals the COVID vaccines increased your risk of dying

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. The New Zealand OIA request revealed that COVID vaccines were found to increase the risk of dying, instead of providing protection against COVID.
  2. The data released under OIA showed that vaccinated individuals experienced a significant increase in mortality during the COVID outbreak, contrary to what was expected.
  3. Mainstream epidemiologists have avoided analyzing the data that shows the vaccines increased the risk of dying from COVID, leading to a lack of public discussion and questioning.

Factors come and go…

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Investment trends often come and go, leading to mixed results. It's important to recognize that what works today may not work tomorrow.
  2. Combining different types of investments can help manage risks, but it also comes with uncertainties about what factors might perform well in the future.
  3. Using flexible models that adapt to changing market conditions can be useful, but they can overlook new factors that may become important. The investment world is always changing, making it an exciting challenge.

Black swans and Covid-19

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Mar 21
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Covid-19 was not truly a black swan event despite its extreme consequences, as a global pandemic was predictable based on historical precedent and scientific consensus.
  2. Several unexpected positive outcomes emerged during the pandemic, such as minimal surface transmission, limited spread outdoors, and the rapid development of effective vaccines.
  3. The pandemic's string of good luck should serve as a reminder of the unpredictability and potential severity of future global infectious disease events, urging caution and preparedness.

Political stability is necessary to attract investments

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Political stability makes a country more attractive for investments. When governments are stable, investors feel more secure putting their money there.
  2. Economic Policy Uncertainty can hurt investment. High levels of uncertainty about policies lead to lower returns and make investors hesitant.
  3. Recent research shows a drop in foreign investments during times of high policy uncertainty. Countries like the UK saw many foreign investors pull out after political events like Brexit.

Are temperature checks a good screen?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 28 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Temperature checks can be a useful initial screening method for Covid-19, as fever is a common symptom among infected individuals.
  2. Precision and accuracy of temperature checks are crucial, as the specificity and prevalence can significantly impact the probability of having Covid-19.
  3. Human factors, like how people interpret and act on temperature readings, are important to consider when implementing screening measures.

When did we know enough to act?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Acting early against a virus like COVID-19 is crucial to keeping it under control. Waiting too long can make it much harder to contain.
  2. Experts, like public health officials, were aware of the seriousness of the situation regarding the virus well before certain key dates - like the Wuhan lockdown.
  3. In the early stages of a pandemic, personal risk assessments may not be adequate, and governments should be proactive in imposing restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus.

I want it to matter, but it doesn’t

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Biodiversity issues in investing are gaining attention, but they still don't seem to affect stock prices much. Even with better data, the connection remains unclear.
  2. A recent study in China tried to measure how awareness of biodiversity risks impacts stock trading. The results showed that stocks related to biodiversity had similar performance, with minimal difference.
  3. Overall, the research suggests that focusing on biodiversity risks might not lead to better investment returns, making it hard to justify their importance in decision-making.

Winning the power to lose

world spirit sock stack • 3 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Winning is not always about immediate power; it's about the real outcomes that come afterward. Sometimes, what seems like a win can lead to a bigger loss for everyone involved.
  2. When people want the same ultimate outcome, like a better future with AI, it’s better to focus on who is making the right choices rather than who has the most power.
  3. If one side pushes for something without considering reality, they might end up hurting everyone, including themselves. True success is about aligning efforts toward a common goal.

What makes a market ‘look risky’?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. How股票价格表现过往的涨跌次数会影响投资者的风险感知。投资者会觉得涨得多的股票更安全。
  2. 如果股票的涨跌超过某个时间段集中在一起，投资者会觉得这支股票风险更高，因为可能面临连续的亏损。
  3. 最近的表现越好，股票看起来越吸引人，风险感知也会降低。人们倾向于基于最新的结果来做决策。

January 2019 Data Update 3: Playing the Numbers Game!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 19
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. In 2019, a lot of companies around the world are included in the data analysis, and their classifications are based on geography and industry. This helps in understanding market trends more clearly.
  2. The U.S. firms are still the largest in terms of market value, but the emerging markets have a significant number of companies, highlighting diverse risks and opportunities.
  3. When analyzing financial data, it's important to remember that the numbers can change and may take time to update, so always verify information and be aware of timing issues.

Why AI X-Risk Gets Overestimated

Abstraction • 2 HN points • 16 May 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. AI takeover requires a confluence of conditions that must align perfectly, making it less likely than some might think.
  2. AI might lack the motive to take over the world, as it may lack agency, self-preservation, or perfect alignment.
  3. AI could lack the means to successfully take over, as scaling limitations, diminishing returns to intelligence, and overwhelming complexity pose significant obstacles.

Qualitative Factors

Business Breakdowns • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Risk Assessment
  1. Risk of permanent loss in investments should be limited by considering qualitative factors like management quality.
  2. A strong moat is essential to protect a business from competitors, with factors like brand, switching costs, and pricing power playing a key role.
  3. Pricing power can come from demand side (like brand) and customer acquisition side, which help in creating a robust value proposition that is hard to replicate.

The Tri-Point Decision

Marcio Klepacz • 0 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
💼 Business Risk Assessment
  1. Decision-making framework based on three questions: goal, consequences, and recovery.
  2. Consider the worst-case scenario when making decisions to weigh the risks.
  3. Importance of making a decision rather than staying stagnant, as mistakes can lead to learning and growth.

We can do better on pre-risk assessment

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Pre-risk assessment is crucial for better allocation of Covid-19 tests. Higher pre-risk means test results carry more weight.
  2. CDC's protocol for point-of-care tests at nursing homes considers pre-risk, but lacks specific numerical data. More granular information would enhance testing protocols.
  3. Contact tracing apps could be leveraged to assess pre-risk levels, aiding in more accurate test allocation without compromising privacy.

Credentials versus passports

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 28 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. The distinction between a 'passport' and a 'credential' is important in managing individual risk and allowing economies to function with minimal restrictions.
  2. Denmark's digital app for showing negative test results, vaccinations, and previous infections can serve as a useful information substrate allowing markets to operate more effectively.
  3. There is value in using verified information as credentials rather than passports, as it provides organizations the flexibility to manage their own Covid-19 risks and policies.

The Proposal: Will you Red Team Me?

Locks and Leaks • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Risk Assessment
  1. The Red Team Proposal is crucial for gaining buy-in, being prepared, and protecting against potential issues during assessments.
  2. Including legal safeguards and seeking approvals help in showcasing professionalism and increasing the likelihood of approval from leadership.
  3. A well-prepared Red Team Proposal should contain components like introduction, prioritization, context, intelligence & analysis, timeline, TTPs, safety plan, and more, making it a vital document for a successful red team operation.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) 's growing popularity with regulators & industries - A behind the scenes view

Beyond Harm • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) predicts the 'frequency' of industrial accidents, but this can be misleading as it does not reveal how soon the next accident might occur.
  2. PRA has limitations due to its optimistic bias, which leads to under-predicting accident rates because it ignores important factors like climate change and technology wear-out.
  3. An alternative to PRA would be using Prescriptive Protection Design Requirements, which have been historically successful in ensuring safety without relying on probability mathematics.

The Reopening Party

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. People responded to government reopening by venturing out quickly, even more eagerly than they curtailed activities before lockdowns.
  2. The trusted government theory suggests that people trusted government information post-lockdown, but not pre-lockdown, leading to their swift return to activities.
  3. Alternative theories suggest that post-lockdown rush could be due to pent-up demand after restrictions, or due to perceived safety improvements like social distancing measures.

Give Thanks

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 23 Nov 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Don't attend events if you have symptoms. Call a doctor and get tested to be sure.
  2. Vaccination and boosting significantly reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection and transmission.
  3. Consider safety measures indoors like rapid testing, ventilation, limited guests, and mask-wearing to reduce COVID-19 spread.

What to make of AstraZeneca?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. AstraZeneca has been linked to rare blood clot issues, particularly in younger individuals, presenting a challenge in vaccine distribution and risk assessment.
  2. The distribution of AstraZeneca vaccine is crucial due to its wide availability, but balancing the risk of blood clots against the benefits of vaccination is a complex task.
  3. Messaging around AstraZeneca vaccination plays a significant role in managing vaccine hesitancy and public perception, highlighting the need for a balanced approach and continual adjustment based on new information.