The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Factors come and go…

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Portfolio Management Risk Assessment Economic Factors
  1. Investment trends often come and go, leading to mixed results. It's important to recognize that what works today may not work tomorrow.
  2. Combining different types of investments can help manage risks, but it also comes with uncertainties about what factors might perform well in the future.
  3. Using flexible models that adapt to changing market conditions can be useful, but they can overlook new factors that may become important. The investment world is always changing, making it an exciting challenge.

What's Wrong With This Picture (Team Training Exercise)

The Rotten Apple • 10 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🍲 Food & Drink Food Safety Training Hygiene Risk Assessment Team Building
  1. The post discusses a team training exercise for front-line workers in food service to identify food safety issues.
  2. The activity aims to get team members thinking about food safety, engage in a risk assessment, and learn about food safety principles such as hygienic design and hand hygiene.
  3. The exercise involves showing an image of someone slicing bacon and asking team members to identify potential food safety problems, errors, or non-conformities.
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New Zealand OIA request reveals the COVID vaccines increased your risk of dying

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Data Analysis Mortality Rates Risk Assessment
  1. The New Zealand OIA request revealed that COVID vaccines were found to increase the risk of dying, instead of providing protection against COVID.
  2. The data released under OIA showed that vaccinated individuals experienced a significant increase in mortality during the COVID outbreak, contrary to what was expected.
  3. Mainstream epidemiologists have avoided analyzing the data that shows the vaccines increased the risk of dying from COVID, leading to a lack of public discussion and questioning.

What makes a market ‘look risky’?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Risk Assessment Market Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. How股票价格表现过往的涨跌次数会影响投资者的风险感知。投资者会觉得涨得多的股票更安全。
  2. 如果股票的涨跌超过某个时间段集中在一起，投资者会觉得这支股票风险更高，因为可能面临连续的亏损。
  3. 最近的表现越好，股票看起来越吸引人，风险感知也会降低。人们倾向于基于最新的结果来做决策。

Who’s Responsible for the Toxic Train Disaster in East Palestine, Ohio?

The Status Kuo • 3 HN points • 16 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investigative Reporting Government Response Regulations Risk Assessment
  1. The blame game around the toxic train disaster in East Palestine, Ohio, has become highly political, with Republicans targeting the infrastructure bill and current administration.
  2. The ultimate responsibility for the disaster lies with Norfolk Southern, due to a combination of mechanical failures, inadequate safety measures, and regulatory loopholes.
  3. There is a need to revisit and strengthen regulations regarding the transportation of hazardous materials by rail to prioritize public safety over industry interests.

Black swans and Covid-19

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Mar 21
🔬 Science Pandemics Risk Assessment Infectious Diseases Vaccines Global impact
  1. Covid-19 was not truly a black swan event despite its extreme consequences, as a global pandemic was predictable based on historical precedent and scientific consensus.
  2. Several unexpected positive outcomes emerged during the pandemic, such as minimal surface transmission, limited spread outdoors, and the rapid development of effective vaccines.
  3. The pandemic's string of good luck should serve as a reminder of the unpredictability and potential severity of future global infectious disease events, urging caution and preparedness.

Are temperature checks a good screen?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 28 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Screening Symptoms Guidelines Risk Assessment
  1. Temperature checks can be a useful initial screening method for Covid-19, as fever is a common symptom among infected individuals.
  2. Precision and accuracy of temperature checks are crucial, as the specificity and prevalence can significantly impact the probability of having Covid-19.
  3. Human factors, like how people interpret and act on temperature readings, are important to consider when implementing screening measures.

When did we know enough to act?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Risk Assessment Public Health
  1. Acting early against a virus like COVID-19 is crucial to keeping it under control. Waiting too long can make it much harder to contain.
  2. Experts, like public health officials, were aware of the seriousness of the situation regarding the virus well before certain key dates - like the Wuhan lockdown.
  3. In the early stages of a pandemic, personal risk assessments may not be adequate, and governments should be proactive in imposing restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus.

January 2019 Data Update 3: Playing the Numbers Game!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 19
💰 Finance Market Analysis Data Trends Valuation Investment strategy Risk Assessment
  1. In 2019, a lot of companies around the world are included in the data analysis, and their classifications are based on geography and industry. This helps in understanding market trends more clearly.
  2. The U.S. firms are still the largest in terms of market value, but the emerging markets have a significant number of companies, highlighting diverse risks and opportunities.
  3. When analyzing financial data, it's important to remember that the numbers can change and may take time to update, so always verify information and be aware of timing issues.

Why AI X-Risk Gets Overestimated

Abstraction • 2 HN points • 16 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Risk Assessment Artificial Intelligence Ethics Safety
  1. AI takeover requires a confluence of conditions that must align perfectly, making it less likely than some might think.
  2. AI might lack the motive to take over the world, as it may lack agency, self-preservation, or perfect alignment.
  3. AI could lack the means to successfully take over, as scaling limitations, diminishing returns to intelligence, and overwhelming complexity pose significant obstacles.

Assess your Risk

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 19 May 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Preventive measures
  1. Assess both individual and societal risks when making decisions, particularly in a pandemic.
  2. Understand the facts about COVID-19 such as handwashing, social distancing, and mask-wearing to make informed decisions.
  3. Apply the facts to your situation, weigh the risks against benefits, mitigate risks, then decide what actions to take - whether it's about wearing masks outside, seeing family over holidays, or sending kids to summer camp.

Active Shooter: When you can’t run, can’t hide, and can’t fight

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 0 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Mass Shootings Emergency Response Security Measures Risk Assessment
  1. Guidance during active shooter situations usually advises to run, hide, or fight, but sometimes all options are impossible.
  2. Certain locations like concert venues, nightclubs, movie theaters, churches, shopping malls, and office spaces may limit the ability to run, hide, or fight during an active shooter event.
  3. When traditional responses are not viable, rapid assessment, basic trauma first aid, and improvisation with available items can make a difference in saving lives during an active shooter attack.

How A.I. Could Hurt Humanity Soon

The Digital Anthropologist • 0 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Risk Assessment Consciousness Governance
  1. AI could potentially cause significant harm to humanity, driven by humans in unexpected ways.
  2. Current limitations include the need for significant processing power, data, and energy for AI to pose serious risks.
  3. The lack of guardrails in place for AI development raises concerns about ethics, governance, and the potential for malicious use by rogue actors.

Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 21
💰 Finance Investment strategy Risk Assessment Capital allocation Market Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. A hurdle rate is the minimum return a business wants from an investment based on its risk. If it's set too high, the company might miss good opportunities.
  2. There are different ways to calculate a hurdle rate, like looking at the cost of raising funds or considering the risk of the specific project. Using the right method helps better match the risk and reward.
  3. Hurdle rates can change based on business type, geography, and currency. It's important to understand these factors to make smart investment decisions.

Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 21
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk Assessment Bond Markets Equities
  1. The price of risk is the extra return investors seek to earn when taking on risky investments. It’s shaped by how much people are willing to spend and their feelings about market conditions.
  2. Risk premiums can change based on investors' fears and greed. When fear is high, people usually want higher risk premiums, which can lower the prices of investments.
  3. There are different ways to evaluate market risk, like looking at bond yields or estimating earnings for stocks, and these methods help us understand if investments are overvalued or undervalued.

A Viral Market Update IX: A Do-it-Yourself S&P 500 Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Valuation Methods Equity Research Investment strategy Risk Assessment
  1. Stock prices can rise even when the economy is doing badly. This happens because companies can still make money, which keeps investors interested.
  2. The market doesn’t always reflect the current situation. Sometimes, it takes time for stock prices to catch up with economic changes.
  3. Investors should have a clear story or a plan about why they think the market will go up or down. It’s important to avoid getting mad when the market doesn’t match their expectations.

A Viral Market Update VII: Mayhem with Multiples

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 Apr 20
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Risk Assessment Equity markets
  1. Market prices have been very volatile as the coronavirus crisis continues, but there's been some recovery in stock values recently. People are looking for signs of stability in their investments.
  2. The use of pricing multiples, like PE ratios, is becoming less reliable during this crisis. Investors need to be cautious and consider the uncertainties that come with these financial metrics.
  3. Different asset classes have performed differently, with healthcare stocks generally doing well while energy and financial sectors have struggled. Understanding these trends can help investors make better choices.

A Viral Market Meltdown VI: The Price of Risk

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Apr 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Risk Assessment Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. The stock market has been very volatile recently, but there was a slight calm where prices only changed by small amounts, which felt stable compared to earlier weeks.
  2. Investors are worried about risks, which has made them demand higher returns on both stocks and bonds. This means that the price of risk is rising across the board.
  3. The pandemic is making it vital for companies to regularly update their estimates of risk and returns instead of relying on old data, as the market is shifting rapidly.

Data Update 7 for 2020: Debt Delusions and Reality

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Mar 20
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Debt Management Investment strategy Risk Assessment Market Analysis
  1. Companies with high debt are more likely to fail during tough times. It's important for them to manage their debt levels carefully to survive crises.
  2. Borrowing can seem appealing due to tax benefits, but it carries risks. The real impact of debt on a company's success depends on its ability to generate stable income.
  3. When assessing a company's debt, looking at different calculations is key. Debt measures based on earnings can reveal whether a company can handle its debt payments, even if its overall debt ratio looks good.

Qualitative Factors

Business Breakdowns • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Risk Assessment Management
  1. Risk of permanent loss in investments should be limited by considering qualitative factors like management quality.
  2. A strong moat is essential to protect a business from competitors, with factors like brand, switching costs, and pricing power playing a key role.
  3. Pricing power can come from demand side (like brand) and customer acquisition side, which help in creating a robust value proposition that is hard to replicate.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) 's growing popularity with regulators & industries - A behind the scenes view

Beyond Harm • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🔬 Science Risk Assessment Physics Mathematics Regulation
  1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) predicts the 'frequency' of industrial accidents, but this can be misleading as it does not reveal how soon the next accident might occur.
  2. PRA has limitations due to its optimistic bias, which leads to under-predicting accident rates because it ignores important factors like climate change and technology wear-out.
  3. An alternative to PRA would be using Prescriptive Protection Design Requirements, which have been historically successful in ensuring safety without relying on probability mathematics.

The Proposal: Will you Red Team Me?

Locks and Leaks • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Management Risk Assessment Operations Leadership Communication
  1. The Red Team Proposal is crucial for gaining buy-in, being prepared, and protecting against potential issues during assessments.
  2. Including legal safeguards and seeking approvals help in showcasing professionalism and increasing the likelihood of approval from leadership.
  3. A well-prepared Red Team Proposal should contain components like introduction, prioritization, context, intelligence & analysis, timeline, TTPs, safety plan, and more, making it a vital document for a successful red team operation.

Credentials versus passports

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 28 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine distribution
  1. The distinction between a 'passport' and a 'credential' is important in managing individual risk and allowing economies to function with minimal restrictions.
  2. Denmark's digital app for showing negative test results, vaccinations, and previous infections can serve as a useful information substrate allowing markets to operate more effectively.
  3. There is value in using verified information as credentials rather than passports, as it provides organizations the flexibility to manage their own Covid-19 risks and policies.

What to make of AstraZeneca?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination COVID-19 Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine Hesitancy
  1. AstraZeneca has been linked to rare blood clot issues, particularly in younger individuals, presenting a challenge in vaccine distribution and risk assessment.
  2. The distribution of AstraZeneca vaccine is crucial due to its wide availability, but balancing the risk of blood clots against the benefits of vaccination is a complex task.
  3. Messaging around AstraZeneca vaccination plays a significant role in managing vaccine hesitancy and public perception, highlighting the need for a balanced approach and continual adjustment based on new information.

We can do better on pre-risk assessment

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Information Management Risk Assessment Data Collection
  1. Pre-risk assessment is crucial for better allocation of Covid-19 tests. Higher pre-risk means test results carry more weight.
  2. CDC's protocol for point-of-care tests at nursing homes considers pre-risk, but lacks specific numerical data. More granular information would enhance testing protocols.
  3. Contact tracing apps could be leveraged to assess pre-risk levels, aiding in more accurate test allocation without compromising privacy.

The Reopening Party

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Government Influence Consumer behavior Risk Assessment Safety measures
  1. People responded to government reopening by venturing out quickly, even more eagerly than they curtailed activities before lockdowns.
  2. The trusted government theory suggests that people trusted government information post-lockdown, but not pre-lockdown, leading to their swift return to activities.
  3. Alternative theories suggest that post-lockdown rush could be due to pent-up demand after restrictions, or due to perceived safety improvements like social distancing measures.