The hottest Security Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways

Why Americans Should Root for Iran

Nonzero Newsletter • 1615 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Iran’s war aim is to make future attacks on it too costly so they won’t be repeated, and if it succeeds that could push Gulf states to help build a more stable regional security architecture.
Israel’s strategy of repeated punitive strikes (the “mowing the lawn” approach) and recent U.S.-backed attacks have been major drivers of instability, so political checks on such adventurism would likely reduce future violence.
Many Iranian actions are reactive to past foreign interventions, so labeling Iran the sole destabilizer ignores important context; negotiated guarantees, sanctions relief, or a return to nuclear diplomacy could help lock in a lasting ceasefire and fewer future deaths.

Judge Foreign Policy Decisions by Their Immediate Impacts

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1682 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Judge foreign policy by its immediate impacts and short-term market signals, since markets aggregate information and reflect what people with money at stake expect. Reserve judgment only briefly while events are still unfolding, but don’t wait years or generations to decide.
When early indicators all point positive—rising markets, political openings, and clearer paths to better governance—treat the intervention as a success relative to the likely alternative rather than chasing long-run counterfactuals. Use these proximate signals as your baseline for comparison.
If signals are mixed or the situation is early, hold off and weigh market losses and economic costs against gains in policy objectives using a short, clear horizon; employ market proxies plus simple cost–benefit tools (including statistical value of life) rather than waiting indefinitely.

Open Hidden Open Thread 423.5

Astral Codex Ten • 4129 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26

🕹 Technology Security

A Wednesday open thread that’s usually for paid subscribers was made public so more people can talk about current events.
The situation between OpenAI and the Pentagon has changed recently because of developments in a new contract.
A LessWrong analysis flags potential loopholes in OpenAI’s surveillance language and argues the contract language should be clearer and stronger.

War in Iran. Terror at Home. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 454 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

📰 News Security

The war with Iran is escalating and U.S. officials say they may step up strikes, but truly eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities would be hugely difficult; the conflict has already spilled over into America with at least one terror attack tied to Hezbollah.
U.S. domestic politics are tense and messy: a high-profile media figure faces scrutiny for alleged Iran contacts even as he questions others’ loyalty, and campus labor fights are fracturing as the UAW pushes back against politically charged grad‑student demands.
Security and technological risks are rising worldwide — analysts warn about AI chatbots amplifying dangerous delusions and about the geopolitics of an AI arms race, while governments increase physical security and test internet controls amid drone and censorship worries.

Cold Truths

Doomberg • 18571 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26

🌞 Climate & Environment Security

Human life depends on a narrow band of temperature and humidity, so societies spend massive amounts of energy on heating and cooling to maintain thermal comfort. Because the planet’s average temperature is well below comfortable indoor levels, some argue modest warming would reduce the energy gap needed for decent living.
Intermittent renewables like solar and wind often underperform in the coldest periods when heating is most needed, so they can’t by themselves guarantee reliable winter energy. Poor insulation and high energy costs leave many households unable to stay warm, creating real hardship and political backlash.
Energy availability and infrastructure shape national power and prosperity; countries with abundant, secure energy tend to flourish while those without are vulnerable. Attacks on power plants in wartime show how denying energy can directly harm civilians and be used as a weapon.

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The Iran War and Barakah

Gordian Knot News • 124 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

The Iran War could lead to an attack on the Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE, creating a real risk of radioactive release.
Having a reliable plume dispersion model and an accurate radiation harm model ready is essential, because poor modeling or panic can multiply the actual harm.
Common tools like MACCS2 for plumes and the linear no‑threshold (LNT) harm model are inadequate and using them would worsen the response, yet no organization currently appears to have the right capability—a serious system failure.

Europe is under siege

Noahpinion • 56765 implied HN points • 07 Dec 25

🌍 World Politics Security

Europe now faces a real security squeeze: an aggressive Russia aided by China on one side and an increasingly unreliable United States on the other, so European security can no longer be taken for granted.
Europe must act more like a single country by integrating militarily and economically — coordinating defense procurement, building a domestic defense-industrial base (drones, batteries, chips, AI), and strengthening its nuclear and conventional forces.
Europe needs big policy changes at home and abroad: create fiscal tools to fund defense, reform social and energy policies to free resources, onshore critical industries, and diversify partners and export markets (India, Japan, Korea, etc.) to reduce dependence on China and the U.S.

Iran Turns The Table On Trump.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 72 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Iran has effectively taken control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, showing it can influence global oil flows and undercut the US goal of controlling oil trade and dollar dominance.
US efforts to seize foreign oil and pressure allies have backfired and exposed American weakness, while Russia and China’s support for Iran deters military intervention.
Iran’s strikes, reportedly using hypersonic weapons, have seriously damaged Israeli military and nuclear sites, raising fears of nuclear escalation while making any nuclear strike on Iran seem catastrophic and likely to fail or provoke massive retaliation.

Debating the Ex-IDF Spokesman About the War in Iran on Piers Morgan's Show, with Mike Pence

Glenn Greenwald • 2787 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

The war with Iran is rapidly expanding and risks turning into a wider regional conflict, which is driving intense public and media debates.
Some prominent U.S. figures remain steadfast in defending past military interventions and continue to advocate for new wars with little change in their arguments.
Participants questioned whether Israel places key military and intelligence command centers inside residential areas of Tel Aviv, and former military spokespeople gave responses that many found revealing.

Iranians Use an App to Map Military Bases and Missile Sites—and So Does Israel

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

There is a civilian-run app that lets ordinary Iranians geotag military bases and missile sites on a map, and it can work even during government internet blackouts.
Israeli intelligence has been using the crowd-sourced geotags from that app to help identify and sometimes strike targets like missile launch sites.
The app was created by an Iranian-American activist and is tied to anti-regime sentiment, with many citizens reporting locations to oppose the government.

It's all a blur

lcamtuf’s thing • 11631 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26

🕹 Technology Security

Averaging-based blurs are linear and often reversible, so knowing the filter and padding lets you set up simple equations to recover original pixels.
A right-aligned moving average makes iterative reconstruction straightforward and can reveal fine detail even with large blur windows, though 8-bit quantization adds visible noise.
Two-pass (X then Y) blurs can still be inverted if the filter biases the current pixel, and recovered images can survive normal lossy formats like JPEG unless compression is very heavy.

MoltBook Is A Warning

Big Technology • 7505 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26

🕹 Technology Security

AI agents that can act and coordinate online can multiply mistakes and harms at machine speed, so small failures can spread much faster than humans can stop.
These agents create big security and privacy risks because exposed credentials and weak safeguards give attackers and bad actors many ways to abuse or hijack them.
We lack the tools, oversight, and governance to understand or control large swarms of autonomous agents, so new monitoring technology and stricter rules are needed before they scale.

AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy

Marcus on AI • 15690 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26

🕹 Technology Security

AI-powered bot swarms can pretend to be real communities and manufacture the appearance of majority opinion, which destroys the independence of voices that democracy depends on.
Traditional takedowns and copy-detection are too slow and brittle; we need proactive technical defenses like continuous network-behavior monitoring and agent-based stress tests to detect and prepare for coordinated attacks.
Policy and institutional fixes can change the economics of manipulation: require privacy-preserving proof-of-human credentials for high-reach interactions, guarantee researcher access to platform data, and build independent observatories so faking a crowd becomes costly and easily detected.

“New Ways to Corrupt LLMs”

Marcus on AI • 36954 implied HN points • 14 Dec 25

🕹 Technology Security

LLMs learn surface-level word correlations instead of real-world understanding, so they often make strange overgeneralizations and hallucinations.
Researchers showed these quirks can be weaponized. Models can be primed with unrelated number sequences or odd training data to acquire hidden preferences, outdated beliefs, or inductive backdoors.
These vulnerabilities are widespread and hard to patch, creating serious security and societal risks if we rely on superficial correlation machines without deeper understanding.

The Virus of Antisemitic Violence

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 551 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

📰 News Security

Violent antisemitic attacks are happening quickly and across many countries — synagogues were shot at, bombed, rammed, and burned all within a single week.
The guardrails that once limited this hate are falling away, so Jews are facing disproportionate and widespread violence even in places with small Jewish populations.
Keeping a systematic, public record of these incidents is essential to restore perspective, raise awareness, and improve prevention and security.

How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 524 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and declared that closure part of its official policy, blocking commercial traffic.
The U.S. can reopen the strait by military force, but it would be risky, require a large, sustained naval effort, and likely take weeks before civilian shipping is safe.
Historical operations show the U.S. has protected Gulf shipping and struck Iranian forces before, but the current campaign would be larger and more complex.

Welcome to Chaos World

Noahpinion • 19941 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Security

The U.S. abduction of a foreign leader without clear international backing shows the old global order and norms are breaking down.
The raid seemed driven more by American domestic politics and opportunism than by enforcing global rules, revealing a mercurial and self-interested use of U.S. power.
Because motives were unclear and unpredictable, the action has amplified global uncertainty and could encourage other countries to arm themselves, settle scores, and act more aggressively.

NZNet Digest: Lawlessness as the New Normal

Nonzero Newsletter • 361 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

International rules are breaking down as powerful actors carry out unlawful actions. Most opposition focuses on cost or practicality instead of principle, which weakens the rules‑based order and makes negotiations harder.
AI tools are reshaping software work: open‑source agents and “vibe‑coding” let non‑experts prototype quickly and can feel like having multiple engineers. The durable value, however, is likely to concentrate in the models, training data, and infrastructure rather than the interchangeable builders.
Breaking informal norms at home can unravel social expectations and normalize harmful behavior. That erosion shows up in politics, community safety concerns, and debates over public symbols of support for foreign governments.

Roundup #75: Checking in on the Bad Guys

Noahpinion • 16000 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Iran’s mass unrest is rooted largely in economic and resource failures — severe water shortages, power cuts, runaway inflation, and sanctions have crushed living standards and helped spark protests.
China is using export controls and other levers to block India’s rise in strategic manufacturing (especially batteries), because Beijing sees Indian industrialization as a geopolitical threat.
Russia’s wartime economy is weaker than it looks on paper — likely understated inflation, falling real incomes, lower oil revenues, and attacks on infrastructure are straining its long-term capacity.

Why Europe should resist the Second China Shock

Noahpinion • 25706 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25

🌍 World Politics Security

Europe needs to keep its manufacturing base so it can scale up weapons and equipment quickly in a high-tech war; letting industry die would weaken its military options.
Cheap, high-tech Chinese exports are creating large trade deficits that act like IOUs and can drain Europe of jobs, profits, and the innovative capacity that comes from making things at scale.
To stop this, Europe should use targeted measures — tariffs and non-tariff barriers on Chinese goods, export subsidies, allied-scale partnerships, joint ventures, and pressure on China’s exchange rate — to rebuild and protect domestic industry.

The Death Throes of Keir Starmer's Government

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5216 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Security

A senior government is facing a crisis after authorizing a private firm to investigate journalists and passing that work to a national cyber agency, creating calls for resignations and political chaos.
A private intelligence/PR firm produced sweeping, false accusations and used a former insider to build a smear campaign, showing how paid research can be weaponized against reporters.
The episode highlights a wider, systemic problem: media outlets and political actors can collude with private spy firms to suppress reporting, a tactic that undermines press freedom and has international implications.

The Second Phase of the Iran War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 259 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🌐 International Security

The U.S. and Israel have spent the first phase trying to decapitate Iran’s leadership and weaken its military power.
Their announced next goal is to end Iran’s nuclear program for good.
This represents a strategic shift toward targeting nuclear infrastructure and signals a potentially longer, more intense campaign with big regional and diplomatic consequences.

Borrowed Time

Doomberg • 8235 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Security

EU leaders face weak accountability: Kaja Kallas was promoted to the EU's top diplomat role despite revelations that her husband's company continued doing business with Russia, highlighting hypocrisy and limited political consequences.
The EU's foreign policy machinery is overlapping and ineffective, with roles and authority spread across institutions in ways that create confusion and make coordinated strategy difficult. Putting relatively inexperienced people into those powerful but ill-defined posts makes the problem worse.
The EU has alienated many major powers and is drifting without a clear geopolitical strategy while facing economic and energy weaknesses. Those fragilities could spark a severe crisis or political shake-up if there is an energy shock, a defeat in Ukraine, or dramatic geopolitical moves elsewhere.

The Building of Fortress Iran

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 105 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Two centuries of foreign meddling and territorial losses left a deep national trauma, so Iran’s politics are driven by a fear of being carved up or controlled by outsiders.
Every Iranian regime—monarchy, democratic, and theocratic—has been trying to build a strong, indivisible state, but each approach failed in different ways, leaving security prioritized over political openness.
The Islamic Republic turned that impulse into a Fortress Iran, and repeated foreign interventions and sanctions have only hardened Iran’s siege mentality and made internal change harder.

Niall Ferguson: Could This Be the Start of World War III?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1201 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could act as a flashpoint leading to a much larger, possibly global, war.
People are once again asking if the new conflict could become World War III, similar to the alarm that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Concerns that this could escalate into a broader conflagration are serious and not an unreasonable overreaction.

'The rock upon which all dictators have perished'

Wrong Side of History • 403 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

The UK–US 'special relationship' is real in institutions and history but is unequal and often treated with cynicism because each country ultimately puts its own interests first.
British domestic politics and shifting voter demographics make leaders cautious about joining American military actions, so popular opposition and unclear goals limit UK support.
The alliance was strongest when both sides shared a clear mission against common threats and deep ties (culture, nuclear forces, intelligence), but its emotional pull has weakened across generations.

Tracking the Virus of Antisemitic Violence. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 394 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

📰 News Security

There is a sharp, recent surge in antisemitic violence worldwide, with numerous synagogue attacks and Jews disproportionately targeted in hate crimes.
A new weekly roundup has been launched to track and summarize these antisemitic incidents so readers can understand their speed and severity.
The publication pairs that reporting with wide-ranging coverage—debates over censorship and faith, geopolitical analysis like the Strait of Hormuz, and investigative pieces on topics from science fraud to abuse scandals.

UK News Report #3

Wrong Side of History • 318 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26

📰 News Security

The UK’s handling of international crises and evacuations looks slow and disorganised, which is harming its global reputation and leaving people exposed.
Reading and deep engagement with books are falling sharply as short-form digital media dominate, raising worries about cultural and intellectual decline.
Policies that prioritise equity or political concerns over clinical risk in public services can endanger vulnerable people and have led to tragic outcomes when mental health needs were downplayed.

What I'm reading about Dubai influencers, data-center missile strikes, and Iran; a great and sleazy Elmore Leonard adaptation, and more

Read Max • 711 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

A curated reading list dives into the war in Iran, covering unexpected angles like Dubai influencers, undersea cables, missile attacks on data centers, and the strain on the foreign-policy establishment and international law.
A stylish, sleazy film adaptation of an Elmore Leonard story is highlighted and recommended.
Four music tracks are recommended, and subscribers are offered extras like weekly emails, curated master lists, and merch, with some links that may pay a small commission.

The Resource Wars Have Begun

Anima Mundi • 1009 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Control of raw materials — oil, rare earths, cobalt, uranium, gold — is the central driver of many current wars and diplomatic moves. Conflicts from Iran to Venezuela to the DRC are being shaped more by resource access than by ideology.
Three competing strategies are colliding: the US uses transactional military leverage for resource access, China builds long-term infrastructure and standards to secure supplies, and Russia funds war through extraction while shadow actors profit. That collision is creating a multipolar scramble with no clear global rules or effective institutions.
The resource scramble risks cascading global crises — energy chokepoints, nuclear proliferation, supply‑chain collapses if Taiwan is attacked, and worsening humanitarian and democratic breakdowns. These cascades threaten markets, food and energy security, and accelerate the weakening of dollar dominance.

Yao Yang on three shifts he saw in the U.S. and in China-U.S. relations

Pekingnology • 67 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Fewer Chinese students are coming to the U.S., which is squeezing public university budgets because stricter visa/work policies and better job prospects at home make U.S. study less attractive.
American attitudes and strategy on China are shifting: a new generation of scholars and changing political camps are more sober and interest-driven, favoring selective, pragmatic policy over older emotional or broadly expansionist approaches.
True decoupling is limited because the U.S. and China remain economically complementary, while capital-driven narratives (like AI hype) and fast-changing policy create public anxiety and leave think tanks lagging behind events.

Iran and the immorality of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google

Nonzero Newsletter • 1253 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Special interests and biased media framing distort how America views Iran. That encourages misreading defensive actions as offensive and makes preemptive war more likely.
Big AI firms have provided models used in Pentagon-linked targeting tools, linking those companies to strikes that killed civilians. Promises to avoid fully autonomous weapons don’t absolve firms when their tech is used to plan lethal operations.
Domestic politics are shifting: a top DHS leader resigned and polls show Americans increasingly view fellow citizens as morally bad. These trends signal weakening support for current immigration enforcement and growing civic distrust.

How Close Is Israel to Maximum Escalation?

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 854 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Iranian strikes are doing more unacknowledged damage because interceptors and targeting radars are being depleted, so smaller missile and drone salvos are having bigger effects.
Israel appears willing to use extreme measures to survive, including the feared “Samson Option” as a last resort, and U.S. policy is tightly entangled with those Israeli decisions.
The conflict’s duration is uncertain: Iran signals readiness for a long fight while Israel may be running short on time and reluctant to accept a ceasefire until the Iranian threat is fully removed.

Now Claude Code Gets New Features: Auto Mode, Dispatch, Remote Control, Voice, /loop & The Complete Setup Guide with 60+ Prompts

The Product Channel By Sid Saladi • 3 implied HN points • 26 Mar 26

🕹 Technology Security

Claude Code quickly became an autonomous agent platform, adding features like voice, remote control, persistent agents, multi-agent code review, scheduled tasks, and more.
Auto Mode uses an AI safety classifier with a two-layer probe and a Sonnet-based transcript filter to auto-approve or block actions, cutting down on manual permission clicks. It’s safer than skipping permissions but still has measurable false negatives, so you should review and customize trust boundaries.
Dispatch and other updates let a desktop agent run always-on and be controlled from your phone, while /loop and a large prompt library make it easier to automate coding workflows. Built-in defaults and setup guides help you configure these features safely.

Thinking about the Long Haul

John’s Substack • 7 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

A two-hour interview with a former Indonesian trade minister explored a wide range of current global conflicts and where they might lead.
This was the third long conversation between them and featured a friendly, engaged back-and-forth.
The overall assessment was bleak, offering a dark outlook on the direction of world affairs in the years ahead.

Weekend Update #176: Ukraine Is Showing Its Value, Particularly For Europe

Phillips’s Newsletter • 368 implied HN points • 15 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Ukraine has become a fast-growing military tech hub, producing cost-effective anti-drone systems, mid-range strike drones, and other innovations that can quickly help allies and should be central to Europe’s defense future.
Recent U.S. moves—downplaying Russia’s role in arming Iran and easing oil sanctions—have effectively boosted Russian revenue and helped Moscow project power that endangers U.S. and allied forces.
Hungary’s seizure of Ukrainian gold and its ties to Putin show that some European states are actively undermining Ukraine and European unity, underscoring the need for Europe to back Ukraine and fix its political structures.

The Middle East Is Ready for the Abraham Accords 2.0

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 324 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

Iran is growing regionally isolated and its proxy forces like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas are weakened or sidelined.
That isolation gives the United States and Gulf Arab states a rare strategic opening to deepen security cooperation and counter shared threats.
The Abraham Accords can be upgraded from symbolic normalization into a practical, integrated security architecture linking Israel and the Gulf.

Many tokens make all bugs shallow & open source’s new maintainers | Chainguard's Dan Lorenc

Dev Interrupted • 42 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26

🕹 Technology Security

Token costs for AI tools are an operational expense employers should cover, not a substitute for pay; companies need to provide the compute and subscriptions engineers need to do their jobs.
Agent-driven development requires treating agents like workers you manage—set up harnesses, clear guardrails, and plan carefully so AI-generated work doesn’t create technical debt.
The rise of agents reshapes risk and the ecosystem: expect permission and outage problems, new markets that sell to bots, and pressure on open source maintainers unless automation helps sustainably fill the gap.

Going to War, Again, for Israel

The Chris Hedges Report • 920 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🌍 World Politics Security

The United States is being pulled into a war that mainly serves Israeli goals, not American interests, risking American lives and flouting international norms.
Israel and its lobby have huge influence over U.S. politics, using money, trips, and pressure to secure massive military aid and political support.
The conflict will be costly and prolonged, causing many deaths, spiking oil prices, regional chaos and likely long-term failure like past regime-change wars.

This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 454 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics Security

The war is raising the risk of a global energy crisis as strikes and threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s Kharg Island are disrupting oil exports and sending prices sharply higher.
Iran’s Kurds remain the regime’s most determined internal opponents and will be central to any future change, but they are unlikely to mount a large-scale invasion into Iran despite outside expectations.
The conflict is reshaping geopolitics and security: it weakens Gulf hub cities and could shift finance to places like Singapore or Cape Town, while also stoking terrorism scares and contentious domestic political reactions.