The hottest Investment strategy Substack posts right now

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Please Keep The Government Closed

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Keeping the government closed can actually be better for gold prices. When the government is open, it tends to spend more money, which can harm the value of gold.
  2. High national debt leads to rising gold prices. As the US debt increases, foreign governments are buying gold as a safer investment away from the US dollar.
  3. Recent market shifts show investors moving away from tech and crypto toward more stable investments like gold. This trend emphasizes the desire for safety during uncertain economic times.

Under The Hood Of Kima Ventures

Venture Prose • 1058 implied HN points • 03 Jul 20
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Kima Ventures, led by Xavier Niel, focuses on investing in French tech founders worldwide.
  2. Their investment strategy involves making $150k investments in 100 new startups annually, with a particular focus on French tech founders.
  3. Kima Ventures aims to stay with companies for the long haul, providing support through their portfolio management platform and maintaining steady returns.
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Why investors are getting the US debasement trade all wrong

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 16 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. The popular "dollar debasement" trade is overblown and investors are likely overestimating how much trouble the dollar actually faces.
  2. Investors are underestimating the risk to U.S. Treasuries, which may be the more vulnerable asset class right now.
  3. Either the debasement narrative is misplaced or investors are only catching up to trends that began about fifteen years ago, so this isn’t a new surprise and may reflect outdated thinking.

Reflections from Our 2025 AGM - $1T Private Companies, AI Fundraising, and Outbound Sourcing

Venture Reflections • 9 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Large VC funds can still generate strong returns if the ceiling for private-company outcomes expands a lot—imagine private companies reaching $1 trillion, which makes the numbers work.
  2. AI companies are setting the fundraising bar because rapid, AI-driven growth attracts VCs hunting for outliers, so investors prefer to back things already showing steep traction rather than hope slow growers will accelerate.
  3. Outbound sourcing is now a standard tool and founders have learned to send the right signals, so being early isn’t enough—outreach must be thoughtful, specific, and add real value to get attention.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.

How Amazon Survived The Dot Com Bust

Jon’s Newsletter • 139 implied HN points • 29 Jan 23
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Amazon's stock price fell a lot during the dot com bust, but the company's internal metrics showed growth. Jeff Bezos believed that as long as their business got better, the stock value would eventually catch up.
  2. Having enough cash was crucial for Amazon to survive the tough times. They raised a significant amount of money right before the downturn, which meant they didn't have to scramble for funds later.
  3. Knowing when to stop investing in losing ideas helped Amazon save money. Bezos made tough choices to cut losses on companies that weren't performing, ensuring Amazon could focus on what was truly important for its future.

FOMO and the optimal portfolio size

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Random global portfolios need hundreds of stocks (often 250–750) to meaningfully diversify stock-specific risk and narrow return outcomes, because a few big winners drive returns while many stocks fail.
  2. ESG-weighted portfolios converge even more slowly, so applying ESG selection typically increases the number of holdings required to stabilize volatility and returns.
  3. Concentrated portfolios still make sense for genuinely skilled active managers because concentration amplifies and reveals skill quickly; if managers are effectively random, broad indexing or very large portfolios are the better choice.

The Market Is Puking Back Good News

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Meta and Microsoft reported strong earnings, surprising many with better-than-expected results. However, despite this good news, the stock market started to drop after an initial rise.
  2. The market is showing signs of stress, particularly because a few large companies dominate it. If their stock prices fall, the whole market could be affected significantly.
  3. Valuation matters just as much as earnings. Even with good earnings reports, if investors feel prices are too high, they may start selling off stocks.

3 Misconceptions About US Debt: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. The US debt isn't just owed to ourselves; it includes many foreign and domestic entities. Splitting the debt equally isn't straightforward since different people hold different amounts.
  2. Governments usually don't default on debts in their own currency, but they can devalue the currency instead. This can impact bondholders and taxpayers in different ways.
  3. A selective default on some debt holders, like foreign entities or the Federal Reserve, could create complicated consequences, potentially damaging trust in US financial stability.

Lessons for today’s investors from the UK in the 1970s

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Cost-push shocks like big commodity price jumps can become long-lasting inflation when governments boost wages and spending while central banks keep rates too low.
  2. Large fiscal deficits or tax cuts can create a short-term growth 'sugar rush' but risk reigniting inflation later if monetary policy is pressured to stay easy.
  3. Fiscal and monetary coordination is crucial: when fiscal policy is expansionary the central bank must act to anchor inflation expectations or inflation will remain elevated.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently about 2% lower than their peak in 2022. This means people may find better deals on homes than before.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is down by 9.3% since the peak in 2022. It suggests that renting may be more cost-effective compared to buying right now.
  3. Historically, house prices tend to increase over time, but real prices being above past bubbles shows that it's still a complicated market for buyers.

Former econ official says "trillions" to come, but be patient

Pekingnology • 56 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. A big economic plan is coming from China, but people need to be patient and not expect immediate results. Changes will happen over time.
  2. The government's strategy involves much more than just money; it includes a variety of policies to support different areas of the economy. This means they are looking at the bigger picture.
  3. Not every policy will show clear numbers right away. Some are about creating a better business environment and building for the future, which might take longer to see the effects.

Fund Size is Strategy - Extreme Power Law Will Make Portfolio Company Conflicts a Relic of the Past

Venture Reflections • 13 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Larger venture funds need to invest in the biggest winning companies, which may lead to conflicts of interest with portfolio companies.
  2. The traditional norm of avoiding investments in competing companies might fade away as firms seek to secure positions in top-performing startups.
  3. Founders generally prefer that their investors don't back competing companies, but large funds might ignore this preference if it conflicts with their investment strategies.

Small Bets

Fish Food for Thought • 10 implied HN points • 20 Aug 25
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. It's better to make lots of small changes rather than one big change. Small experiments can teach you valuable lessons without a lot of risk.
  2. In product development, don't rely on gut feelings or big ideas. Use data to guide your decisions and make smaller bets that can adapt quickly.
  3. A culture of learning from failure is important. Embrace mistakes as they help you improve, and focus on learning fast instead of aiming for perfection.

2025 Macro Outlook

The Last Bear Standing • 36 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. The Fed is in a new phase of monetary policy, raising questions about whether easing measures are just beginning or already finished. This uncertainty affects markets and investor confidence.
  2. The labor market is showing mixed signals, with job growth continuing but other indicators suggesting a slowdown. This could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
  3. Inflation progress has stalled, and how labor data evolves in 2025 will greatly influence inflation and monetary policy going forward.

Failing upwards

davidj.substack • 35 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Taking risks is a natural part of business. Employees at all levels face risks, and their roles should help manage those risks effectively.
  2. Data teams need to engage with business risks and help optimize rewards. Building data infrastructure should only be a means to support this goal.
  3. Not everyone is suited for risk-taking roles in the private sector. Some people may excel at politics but fail to deliver real results, which leads to inefficiencies in recruitment.

Improving factor returns through structural factors

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Reported factor returns are partly driven by changing valuation multiples, not just fundamentals; removing those valuation effects reveals a structural premium that better reflects underlying, fundamental-driven returns.
  2. Valuation-driven revaluation effects shrink over longer horizons, so structural factor returns become more important for long-term investors and should guide long-term factor weightings.
  3. Constructing multi-factor portfolios using structural premiums improves expected long-term performance versus conventional approaches, though investors will still experience realized valuation swings that cannot be hedged.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

Global LP Perspectives in a Changing Market

Tippets by Taps • 10 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. Liquidity is a big issue for investors everywhere. They are waiting for returns, especially in regions like Australia where companies like Canva are under a lot of pressure to go public.
  2. AI is seen as a huge opportunity by all investors. They feel they can't miss out on the companies shaping the future, even if they are frustrated by the current lack of liquidity.
  3. The US, especially Silicon Valley, is still the main hub for tech and AI innovation. Many investors want to get involved there while waiting for their local markets to grow.

The Aftermath

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. After the election, the stock market jumped a lot, especially small and tech stocks, showing a positive reaction to the new leadership.
  2. Different companies reacted in various ways; some like energy stocks did well due to traditional support while others, like solar, saw drops.
  3. Concerns about tariffs and manufacturing shifts are growing, with many companies considering moving production out of China to avoid potential issues.

Trading The Shit Show: November 2024 Market Review

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. The market is facing changes due to a significant political event, specifically the Trump administration's win. This could lead to a shift in how people invest and view their portfolios.
  2. As the new year approaches, it's important for investors to assess their portfolio positioning. Understanding market trends can help make better financial decisions.
  3. Overall, staying informed about political and economic changes is key for successful trading and investing. Keeping an eye on these factors can influence your financial strategies.

5 Takeaways from CalSTRS’ Private Equity Performance Report

East Wind • 7 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Traditional buyout strategies are the main focus in private market investing, making up the majority of capital deployed. This means investors often look for large returns by channeling money into these proven strategies.
  2. Private equity investments take a long time to provide returns, sometimes over a decade. Many firms are staying private longer, which can slow down how quickly capital returns to investors.
  3. Venture capital investments have seen a significant decrease lately, with much lower capital contribution compared to previous years. This change highlights a shift in the market, making it harder for funds to generate strong returns.

China's Tech Crackdown: Its about Control, not Consumers or Competition!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 01 Sep 21
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. China's tech crackdown focuses on control by the government rather than protecting consumers or fostering competition. This means the government wants to maintain power over tech companies and the data they possess.
  2. Chinese tech companies have seen significant changes in their market value due to increased government regulations. Investors are now reassessing their expectations and pricing based on the new reality of government control.
  3. The success of Chinese tech companies stems from their ability to adapt to the local market needs and not just copying foreign models. However, their dependency on domestic growth makes them vulnerable to government actions.

January 2019 Data Update 3: Playing the Numbers Game!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 19
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. In 2019, a lot of companies around the world are included in the data analysis, and their classifications are based on geography and industry. This helps in understanding market trends more clearly.
  2. The U.S. firms are still the largest in terms of market value, but the emerging markets have a significant number of companies, highlighting diverse risks and opportunities.
  3. When analyzing financial data, it's important to remember that the numbers can change and may take time to update, so always verify information and be aware of timing issues.

Regime Change and Value: A Follow up Post on Aramco

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 19
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Valuing a company like Aramco requires looking at both its expected cash flows and political stability. Changes in government can hugely impact its value.
  2. Risk is an important factor in investments and can be split into 'going concern' risk, which means worrying about future cash flows, and 'truncation' risk, which means worrying about whether the company will still exist in the future.
  3. There are pros and cons to investing in businesses within democracies versus autocracies. Democracies can lead to more stable cash flows but also introduce more frequent changes, while autocracies can appear stable but may lead to sudden and drastic changes.

Data Update 7 for 2020: Debt Delusions and Reality

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Mar 20
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Companies with high debt are more likely to fail during tough times. It's important for them to manage their debt levels carefully to survive crises.
  2. Borrowing can seem appealing due to tax benefits, but it carries risks. The real impact of debt on a company's success depends on its ability to generate stable income.
  3. When assessing a company's debt, looking at different calculations is key. Debt measures based on earnings can reveal whether a company can handle its debt payments, even if its overall debt ratio looks good.

A Viral Market Meltdown V: Back to Basics!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 31 Mar 20
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. The market is experiencing a lot of ups and downs, with some recovery seen recently. However, many global indices are still down significantly compared to earlier this year.
  2. Investors should go back to basic evaluation strategies during this unpredictable time. It's important to assess potential company shakeups and their financial health rather than solely relying on past data.
  3. The survival of companies is at risk, especially those with high debt or poor earnings. The post-crisis market might look very different as new winners and losers emerge.

A Viral Market Update IX: A Do-it-Yourself S&P 500 Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 20
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Stock prices can rise even when the economy is doing badly. This happens because companies can still make money, which keeps investors interested.
  2. The market doesn’t always reflect the current situation. Sometimes, it takes time for stock prices to catch up with economic changes.
  3. Investors should have a clear story or a plan about why they think the market will go up or down. It’s important to avoid getting mad when the market doesn’t match their expectations.

Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 21
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. A hurdle rate is the minimum return a business wants from an investment based on its risk. If it's set too high, the company might miss good opportunities.
  2. There are different ways to calculate a hurdle rate, like looking at the cost of raising funds or considering the risk of the specific project. Using the right method helps better match the risk and reward.
  3. Hurdle rates can change based on business type, geography, and currency. It's important to understand these factors to make smart investment decisions.

Financial Management: Modelling & Analysis

Logos • 0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 20
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Only create financial models when necessary. If the decision is clear, don't waste time building a model just to check a box.
  2. Focus on the key variables that have the biggest impact. It's often just a couple of factors that make the most difference in the results.
  3. Use tools like Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis to understand risks and potential outcomes better. They can help you see how different situations might play out.

What happens to stocks when the Fed pauses on rate hikes?

Jon’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. When the Fed pauses rate hikes for three months or more, it usually boosts stock performance. Historically, stocks saw average gains of over 8% during these pauses.
  2. Shorter pauses in the tightening cycle have mixed results. In some cases, stocks went up mildly, while in others, they saw small declines.
  3. If the Fed maintains the pause until September, it suggests a positive outlook for stocks, especially if interest rates have peaked. However, if rates continue to rise, the market impact is less clear.

Deep dive on Palantir ($PLTR)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. Palantir ($PLTR) is a company with a solid financial standing and a detailed deep dive analysis available.
  2. The stock has had fluctuations in its price and market performance.
  3. Paid subscribers get access to in-depth insights on Palantir and other stocks through Jonah's Growth Stock Deep Dives.

Our Secret: Delivering the Same VC "Product" to the Next Generation of Founders

Equal Ventures • 0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 22
💼 Business Investment strategy
  1. The VC industry needs to evolve to serve the next generation of founders in areas like insurance, energy, and logistics.
  2. Founders in new business sectors may struggle to access VCs who lack knowledge about their industries.
  3. To support the new wave of founders, VCs must develop a deeply prepared understanding of specific industries to provide the necessary support.

Investing Update: Is Apple Losing Its Taste?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investment strategy
  1. The stock market has been reaching new all-time highs with strong performance across various sectors and asset classes.
  2. Despite Apple's underperformance compared to the S&P 500 and other tech stocks, it may present a potential buying opportunity as past dips in Apple have been followed by strong recoveries.
  3. The current market trend is leaning towards risk-on behavior, with evidence in the rise of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and certain ETFs.