Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

The hottest Substack posts of Astral Codex Ten

And their main takeaways

Open Thread 316

2271 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Community Grants Research Contest AI safety
  1. ACX provides an open thread for weekly discussions where users can post anything, ask questions, and engage in various topics.
  2. ACX Grants project includes initiatives like exploring a mutation to turn off suffering and opportunities for researchers in AI safety.
  3. ACX mentions upcoming events like a book review contest with updated rules and a pushed back due date.

Open Thread 314

3097 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🚌 Education Articles
  1. Weekly visible open thread for posting anything.
  2. Clarifications on prediction markets and schizophrenia genetics.
  3. Announcement of new subscriber-only post about Democratic Socialists' budget crisis.

Open Thread 315

2615 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post is about an open thread where people can discuss different topics freely.
  2. There is information about ACX Grants projects and a request for legal help with charity and tax deductions.
  3. The post mentions links to related channels like a subreddit, Discord, bulletin board, and in-person meetups.

Open Thread 310

4749 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Psychology Social Science
  1. Weekly open thread for sharing anything or asking questions.
  2. Seeking volunteers in different expertise areas for reviewing proposals.
  3. Discussion on the impact of distinctively black names on job interviews and life outcomes.

Open Thread 313

2202 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Genetics Psychology Fiction Education
  1. Genes matter 2x as much as the environment in schizophrenia, not 4x as previously thought
  2. A study on political reasoning errors failed to replicate, questioning a larger literature on the topic
  3. Humans merging with AI may not be unprecedented, as evidenced by a medieval Italian man merging with a knife
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The Extinction Tournament

9153 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
🔬 Science Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Existential Risk Technology
  1. Experts and superforecasters had a strong disagreement on the likelihood of global catastrophes.
  2. The tournament explored global disaster risks, with 'Catastrophe' meaning an event killing over 10% of the population, and 'Extinction' meaning reducing human population below 5,000.
  3. The tournament highlighted the challenges in aligning expert predictions, potential biases in forecasts, and the complexities of forecasting AI-related risks.

More Memorable Passages From "The Man Without A Face"

6194 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Russian Politics Activism Corruption Media influence Political Campaigns
  1. During the fall of the Soviet Union, activists creatively countered authorities by using lemons to silence a brass band.
  2. Corrupt officials, including Vladimir Putin, diverted imported meat from Leningrad to Moscow leading up to a failed coup.
  3. US politicians have cute personal stories to humanize, but Putin's lack of reaction to his dog's death reflects his impervious exterior.

Links For May 2023

8396 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🕹 Technology AI Research Ethics Regulations Innovation
  1. The Nisean horse was highly regarded by ancient civilizations and fought over in wars
  2. UNAM university in Mexico is operating an octopus farm disguised as a research center
  3. Research shows that the Success Sequence may not accurately measure outcomes due to various factors

Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints?

9498 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🏥 Health & Wellness
  1. Transgender people have reported higher rates of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS) and joint disorders.
  2. Possible reasons for this include genetics, estrogen, and a connection to autism.
  3. Research shows a higher incidence of joint issues in transgender individuals, suggesting a potential link that requires further exploration.

Hidden Open Thread 309.5

1101 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
🚌 Education
  1. It is a paid post for subscribers only.
  2. The content is from astralcodexten.com.
  3. There are options to subscribe or sign in if you are a paid subscriber.

Links For February 2023

9635 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
  1. Cultured meat companies preparing to sell exotic meats like lion and tiger meat.
  2. Government lifting restrictions on suboxone prescription for opioid abuse treatment.
  3. Interesting facts about Carl Sagan's marriages and personal life.

Hidden Open Thread 311.5

757 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🚌 Education Blogging
  1. The post 'Hidden Open Thread 311.5' is intended for paid subscribers only.
  2. The article was published on January 19, 2024.
  3. To access the full content, users need to subscribe to Astral Codex Ten.

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

Hidden Open Thread 315.5

344 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🚌 Education Blog
  1. The post is exclusive for paid subscribers, indicating it contains premium content for a specific audience.
  2. Readers can subscribe to access the post or sign in if they are already paid subscribers.
  3. The post shares a link and encourages engagement by allowing sharing and comments.

Hidden Open Thread 310.5

619 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post 'Hidden Open Thread 310.5' is for paid subscribers only.
  2. The post was published on January 11, 2024.
  3. The post has a link to comments section, but requires a subscription to access.

Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices

4542 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💼 Business Economics Urban planning Housing Market City Development Real Estate
  1. Density is correlated with high prices, but demand, rather than new units, drives prices up.
  2. Long-term, attracting people through desirability is more impactful than building more houses alone.
  3. Building new housing may attract trendy cities, but some cities may have capped trendiness and adding density won't make them more popular.

Mantic Monday 4/24/23

3923 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI Data Analysis API Funding
  1. Using AI for forecasting future world events is a growing field with potential benefits over human forecasters.
  2. Metaculus has been found to be more accurate than low-information priors and its competitor Manifold Markets, showing the potential of crowdsourcing for predictions.
  3. Exploring AI forecasting through platforms like Polymarket, Metaculus, and Manifold provides insight into trends, such as the interest in prediction markets among sci-tech celebrities.

Hidden Open Thread 312.5

344 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post is for paid subscribers only
  2. The post is from January 26, 2024
  3. There is a link to subscribe for access to the post