Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

The hottest Substack posts of Astral Codex Ten

And their main takeaways

Book Review: The Rise Of Christianity

27117 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
📚 Literature Book review Religious Studies Historical Analysis Cultural Commentary Christianity
  1. Early Christianity grew slowly but steadily, with a strong growth rate mainly from interpersonal connections and participation in social networks, rather than just mass conversions or miracles.
  2. The appeal of Christianity, especially to women, played a key role in its spread, as it offered more rights and better treatment compared to pagan societies, leading to higher female engagement.
  3. Christians often cooperated during plagues, caring for the sick while pagans fled, which not only saved lives but showcased their moral values, drawing more people to their faith.

How Did You Do On The AI Art Turing Test?

25259 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🎨 Art & Illustration AI Art Art Appreciation Digital Art
  1. Many people struggle to tell the difference between AI-generated art and human-created art. Most scored just slightly above random guessing on a test designed to distinguish between the two.
  2. Participants often judged art based on its style rather than its origin. People tended to think that certain styles, like Impressionism, had to be human even when they were AI-created.
  3. Surprisingly, more people preferred AI art over human art, with many claiming they disliked AI art but still choosing AI pieces as their favorites.

Friendly And Hostile Analogies For Taste

19615 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Art Taste Fashion Aesthetics Criticism
  1. Taste in art can feel very subjective, with many believing that what they like is good while critics might argue otherwise. It's confusing when different groups don't agree on what is 'good' art.
  2. Just like there are fashion rules that people follow, there are also rules for taste that might seem arbitrary. Sometimes, these rules change quickly, and what's considered 'good' or 'bad' can shift over time.
  3. People often feel a strong reaction to art or style they dislike, similar to how some think bad grammar is wrong. This suggests that our sense of taste might be more about learned reactions than fixed truths.

Why Worry About Incorrigible Claude?

15279 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Robotics Automation Cybersecurity
  1. AI's goals and motivations can be complicated and messy, similar to how humans have many different reasons for their actions. This makes understanding and aligning AIs challenging.
  2. If AIs resist changes to their goals or values, it becomes much harder for researchers to properly train or guide them. They might hide their true motivations from people trying to help.
  3. There are steps that can be taken to improve AI alignment, but success heavily relies on the AI being cooperative, rather than fighting against modifications.

Notes From The Progress Studies Conference

23813 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Energy Innovation AI Regulation Progress
  1. Progress Studies is a new field aimed at understanding and improving human progress. It's seen as important despite some initial pushback, similar to how other social studies emerged.
  2. Solar energy is rapidly improving and could become very cheap, making it a major player in addressing energy needs. Advances in solar and storage technology are seen as key to a more sustainable future.
  3. Regulations are often seen as a barrier to progress in various sectors, from energy to housing. Many attendees at the conference believe smarter regulation could greatly enhance innovation and development.
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Highlights From The Comments On Lynn And IQ

10668 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🔬 Science Psychology Education Sociology Cultural Studies
  1. IQ tests may not accurately reflect a person's real-life intelligence, especially in very under-educated populations. Many factors, like lack of exposure to education, can affect test performance.
  2. Data from reliable and different sources, like World Bank statistics, often support the findings on national IQs. This suggests that there might be underlying patterns in intelligence across different countries.
  3. There's a complex relationship between IQ and practical skills. Just because someone scores low on an IQ test, it doesn't mean they're incapable in practical situations, like farming.

Hidden Open Thread 381.5

619 implied HN points • 15 May 25
📚 Literature Writing Essays Fiction Poetry Criticism
  1. The post is part of a ongoing discussion space for paid subscribers, encouraging shared conversations.
  2. It emphasizes the value of community interaction and exchange of ideas.
  3. Subscribers are offered opportunities to engage more deeply through the thread's content.

Highlights From The Comments On Prison

15485 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Criminal Justice Prison Reform Policing Public Policy Societal Impact
  1. Many criminals act without thinking of long-term consequences. They might believe they'd get away with risky behavior, such as driving drunk, which can lead to serious problems later on.
  2. Prison can sometimes offer a break from harmful lifestyles, especially for those already struggling with addiction or crime. It might not disrupt a stable life, since some people had a challenging life full of problems even before incarceration.
  3. The effectiveness of longer prison sentences as a deterrent is questionable. Many criminals don't pay attention to the details of potential punishments, but are more influenced by the chance of getting caught while committing a crime.

Ask Me Anything (2/2025)

7433 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Psychology Society Communication Art Philosophy
  1. Subscribers can ask questions during the AMA, but only they can comment on the responses. It's a way to engage the paid supporters more directly.
  2. Some questions won't be answered, like those asking for medical advice or trying to get a controversial statement. It's about keeping it respectful and on topic.
  3. The host plans to keep up with questions until they feel like stopping, so there's a willingness to engage as long as it's productive.

Links For December 2024

13627 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Art Music Religion Philosophy Literature
  1. Steven Seagal has led a colorful life after Hollywood, converting to Buddhism, supporting Russia, and marrying multiple women. He's even been called the reincarnation of a famous saint.
  2. An outrageous fine of $20 trillion was imposed on Google by Russia for blocking certain YouTube channels. This amount is far more than the total worth of the world's economy!
  3. There's a belief that taller candidates tend to win U.S. elections. While some studies suggest a slight trend, it's not enough to say it's a reliable rule.

The Innocent And The Beautiful Have No Enemy But Time

12526 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
📚 Literature Poetry Essays Fiction Philosophy Criticism
  1. Time is the only true enemy of those who are innocent and beautiful. It can take away love and youth.
  2. Embracing simplicity and purity brings happiness, even if it seems fragile. Pure intentions often face challenges.
  3. Beauty and innocence should be cherished, as they stand out in a complex world. They may be vulnerable, but they are worth protecting.

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

16656 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Forecasting Betting Market Analysis Political trends
  1. Polymarket, a prediction market, did well during the recent election by accurately calling results and gaining popularity. However, there are still concerns about accuracy in their pricing, particularly regarding Trump shares.
  2. It's important not to overreact to single significant events when making predictions. Even if things seem to favor one hypothesis after an event, it doesn't mean we should change our overall beliefs drastically.
  3. The reliability of prediction markets like Polymarket compared to non-money forecasting sites like Metaculus is still up for debate. Past performance shows non-money forecasters often have better accuracy, and big bets from individuals can create misleading odds in prediction markets.

Open Thread 366

7089 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Media Consulting Forecasting Education
  1. Anyone can share thoughts or ask questions in the open thread. It's a space for discussing anything on your mind.
  2. There are opportunities for people interested in AI safety, including a course that can help you get started in the field.
  3. An AI forecasting project is looking for news outlets to publish articles on future predictions about AI advancements.

Indulge Your Internet Addiction By Reading About Internet Addiction

11769 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Internet culture Addiction Family Dynamics Mental health Surveys
  1. Many people consider themselves addicted to the internet, and the more time they spend online, the more likely they are to perceive their usage as an addiction. On average, self-reported addicts spend more time online each day.
  2. There is a negative link between internet addiction and life satisfaction. Those who consider themselves more addicted tend to report lower happiness levels.
  3. Parents who restrict their children's internet use when they are young may help reduce the chance of their kids becoming internet addicts as adults. This suggests that early internet habits can influence future behaviors.

Triple Tragedy And Thankful Theory

18101 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Mental health Medical Ethics Patient Care Neurology Public Health
  1. Survival-oriented systems focus on making quick decisions to prevent crises, while thriving-oriented systems take more time to explore options. This can cause misunderstandings between them.
  2. Collaboration can improve if both sides appreciate each other's intentions and realize they have different communication styles. Being thankful and confirming good intentions helps.
  3. When urgency rises, space-efficient communication might seem harsh, and time-efficient communication can feel unfocused. Both sides should try to interpret this behavior charitably to work together better.

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

13283 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Democracy Political Climate Foreign Policy
  1. Elections can feel like a wild rollercoaster ride, creating a lot of anxiety and drama for everyone involved. Many people are so tense about the outcomes that it can affect their mental health.
  2. Prediction markets offer a way for people to bet on outcomes, but they can be unreliable. Sometimes, one big bet can skew results, leading to people misinterpreting the chances of candidates.
  3. In the end, elections are more than just picking leaders; they're a moment where everyone feels the weight of the future. It's a reminder of our shared hopes and fears, no matter our backgrounds.

Book Review: Deep Utopia

15004 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
📚 Literature Philosophy Fiction Book Reviews Science fiction
  1. The book explores what life would be like if there were no problems at all. It raises questions about whether such a world would be truly fulfilling or just boring.
  2. Bostrom discusses 'wireheading,' where people could experience intense pleasure but questions if this would lead to a meaningful existence or if it would feel like cheating.
  3. He suggests different ways to find meaning in a perfect world, like through art, sports, or personal challenges, but wonders if these pursuits could remain exciting in an environment without real struggles.

Subscrive Drive 2025 + Free Unlocked Posts

6400 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Subscriptions Finance Marketing Media Economics
  1. You can subscribe to Astral Codex Ten for paid access, which includes extra articles and special threads for subscribers. It's a chance to support the blog and get more content.
  2. The blog had strong subscriber growth at first but has seen a drop in recent years. The author encourages financial support but understands if people cannot afford it.
  3. Several subscriber-only posts offer unique insights, covering topics like historical figures and personal reflections. When you subscribe, you can access a lot of great content.

Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem

13834 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Political theory Political strategy
  1. The Median Voter Theorem suggests that candidates will gravitate towards the political center to win elections. This means that in a fair competition, it's likely they will align closely with the beliefs of average voters.
  2. In real life, candidates often have to balance different voter bases, especially during primary elections, which can pull them away from the center. This can lead to contradictions in their positions when they face general elections.
  3. Political parties may not always be as rational as the theorem suggests. Instead of moving to the center, they can sometimes collude by proposing extreme policies, which keeps them equally distant from the median voter but serves their interests together.

Links For November 2024

12664 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Ancient Chinese customs included burying people with passports for the afterlife. This practice was believed to help them gain entry into the underworld.
  2. A new drug for schizophrenia is approved, showing promise for fewer side effects and better treatment for negative symptoms, but it has a high starting price.
  3. Recent studies show that teaching experience may not be as important as previously thought, as using less experienced teachers can lead to worse student performance.

Can You Hate Everyone In Rome?

7020 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Ethics Existentialism Logic Metaphysics Political theory
  1. It's possible to feel a strong dislike for a whole group of people in a certain place. This often happens when we don't connect with others' beliefs or actions.
  2. People can feel frustrated with societal norms and expectations, leading to a sense of isolation. This happens when individuals feel out of place among the crowd.
  3. Understanding and empathy can help bridge these feelings of alienation. Finding common ground with others can ease negative feelings.

Take The 2025 ACX Survey

7157 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🚌 Education Surveys Psychology Research Findings Incentives
  1. There's a reader survey available that helps understand who reads the blog and explore psychological findings. It's like a fun way to learn more about people's interests.
  2. Taking the survey will take around 20 to 30 minutes, and participants have a chance to win a free one-year subscription. It's a nice incentive to get more people involved.
  3. The survey closes on January 5, so it's important to fill it out before then to make your voice heard.

SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story

12182 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Policy Government Political parties Activism
  1. SB 1047 was a California bill aimed at regulating AI to prevent catastrophic risks from AI technology. It gained support from various influencers and organizations but was eventually vetoed by Governor Newsom.
  2. The bill had strong public backing, with many Californians, including a significant portion of the legislature, in favor of AI regulation. Despite this support, some powerful opponents, including major AI companies and political figures, successfully pushed against it.
  3. The veto has sparked different strategies among supporters of the bill, with some suggesting a broader coalition to pursue future regulatory efforts. They believe that public concerns about AI can't be ignored and regulation is coming, albeit potentially in a more aggressive form.

AI Art Turing Test

10048 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🎨 Art & Illustration Digital Art AI Art Visual Culture Art Criticism Interactive art
  1. There's an AI Art Turing Test happening, which is a fun way to see if you can tell the difference between AI-generated art and human-made art.
  2. Participants can take part by filling out a form, which takes about twenty minutes, and the results will be shared the following week.
  3. Don't peek at the comments until you're done with the test, as they might give away answers.

Open Thread 368

2959 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI safety Philanthropy Meetups
  1. A biotech company called MiniCircle had mixed research results on a new technology. While there are some positive findings, the effects are much weaker than needed, and more careful testing is required.
  2. Open Philanthropy plans to give out $40 million for AI safety research. They're looking for new ideas in areas like control and generalization, and people can apply for funding.
  3. Students at the University of Chicago have started a rationalist reading and meetup group. They invite anyone interested to join and connect with others who share similar interests.

Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

3854 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🔬 Science Forecasting Predictions Technology Research Competition
  1. The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open for predictions. It's a great opportunity for anyone interested to share their forecasts on various topics.
  2. This year, there are new forecasting bots participating, and it'll be exciting to see how they compare to top human forecasters. The contest wants to explore how well these bots can predict outcomes.
  3. The questions this year are designed to be interesting and relevant, so many people can take part. The contest aims to engage everyone's thoughts on important issues.

Open Thread 363

4542 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Community Mental health Writing Social media Discussion
  1. You can share anything you'd like in the open thread. This is a space for questions and discussions about various topics.
  2. There's a survey available for feedback that closes soon, so make sure to participate if you want your voice heard.
  3. The blog recommendations have been updated for the New Year, focusing on new writers and changing recommendations yearly.

The Case Against California Proposition 36

8603 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Reform Criminal Justice Drug policy
  1. Proposition 36 would increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes, but tough sentences don't actually lower drug use or reduce crime rates. It's important to focus on better treatment options instead of just harsher punishments.
  2. The law proposes a new 'treatment-mandated felony' but lacks funding for adequate treatment facilities. California desperately needs more treatment beds to help those struggling with addiction.
  3. Shoplifting rates are rising, but it's not just because of previous laws like Prop 47. Focusing on smarter policing and addressing the root causes of crime is more effective than simply increasing penalties.

Book Review Contest 2024 Winners

8947 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
📚 Literature Book Reviews Writing Awards Creative Writing
  1. The winners of the 2024 Book Review Contest have been announced, with AmandaFromBethlehem taking first place. She received $2,500 for her review of 'Two Arms And A Head'.
  2. A variety of interesting books were reviewed by participants, showcasing unique perspectives and diverse interests. Some other notable reviews included titles like 'Nine Lives' by David Matolcsi and 'How The War Was Won' by Jack Thorlin.
  3. All winners and finalists earn a free subscription and the chance to pitch essay ideas for potential publication. There are suggestions for future contests to change the format or even skip a year to allow participants more reading time.

The Psychopolitics Of Trauma

32348 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Trauma PTSD Mental health Psychiatry
  1. Politics can affect people's brains and behaviors in ways that resemble mental disorders.
  2. Experiences related to politics can potentially be viewed through the lens of trauma.
  3. Political hyperpartisanship may be a form of trauma addiction, affecting how individuals perceive and react to political stimuli.

Open Thread 360

4955 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Social Personal Events
  1. You can talk about anything and ask questions in the open thread. It's a space for sharing thoughts and connecting with others.
  2. There's a survey for people who consider themselves effective altruists to participate in. It's a way to share insights about giving and doing good.
  3. A new post will be shared for subscribers, celebrating the author's children turning one. It likely includes reflections on parenting and life.

Love And Liberty

28494 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Philosophy Society Psychology Literature Arts
  1. Libertarians lack a dedicated holiday, unlike other ideological groups
  2. Love is seen as unfair, unsafe, and resists regulation unlike many other aspects of life
  3. The idea of love remains unique in its resistance to regulation compared to other fields like art and child-rearing

How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?

25672 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🎭️ Culture Race Identity Ethnicity Community Cancel Culture
  1. Race is often defined not just by genetics, but by a combination of formative experiences and cultural identity.
  2. The concept of race and identity can have significant implications, such as in cases of cultural appropriation and affirmative action.
  3. Judgments on race and identity can be complex and can have real-life consequences, highlighting the need for balanced considerations in such discussions.

Open Thread 359

5024 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Charity Community Debate Rationalism
  1. You can participate in an open thread where you can share thoughts or ask questions. It's a great way to connect and engage in discussions.
  2. There are charities you can support that directly help people, like GiveDirectly which gives cash to poor families in Africa. Supporting effective charities can make a real difference.
  3. Lightcone supports the rationalist community and works on infrastructure for online platforms. Donating can help continue their valuable work and make improvements for events and resources.

Open Thread 361

4336 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Social Holidays Surveys
  1. You can share or discuss anything you like in the open thread. It's a space to ask questions and engage with others.
  2. There’s a survey for the community that you can fill out. The deadline is January 5, and reminders will keep coming until then.
  3. Happy holidays! Expect fewer posts until January, as the posting schedule will be lighter during this time.

Open Thread 356

5712 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Logic Metaphysics Social Political
  1. The open thread allows people to discuss anything and ask questions freely. It's a space for sharing ideas and engaging with others.
  2. Comments from the community can provide new insights into historical topics, like the early Christian views on abortion and marriage. This shows how understanding can evolve with discussion.
  3. Game theory continues to evolve, with strategies like Win-Stay, Lose-Shift gaining attention for their effectiveness in cooperation compared to older strategies like Tit-for-Tat. It's interesting to see how competition shapes these strategies in different contexts.

Open Thread 365

2890 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Humor Community Discussion Social media Events
  1. You can participate in discussions on various topics in the open thread. Feel free to ask questions or share ideas.
  2. There is a remote job opportunity for contractors in AI-related fields with flexible hours. You can earn $100 per hour while helping measure performance between AI and humans.
  3. Additional comments and discussions are available on a range of topics including national IQ, political party systems, and cultural insights. It's a chance to learn from different perspectives.