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Noahpinion explores global economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and societal changes. It critiques western leftist politics, examines the impacts of shifting power dynamics post-Pax Americana, and discusses technological progress, environmental debates, and policy solutions to international conflicts. The blog also covers cultural and lifestyle topics, emphasizing rational analysis and forward-looking perspectives.

Global Economic Trends Geopolitical Shifts Societal Changes Environmental Debates Technological Progress International Conflicts Policy Solutions Cultural and Lifestyle Topics

The hottest Substack posts of Noahpinion

And their main takeaways

Good cities can't exist without public order

18000 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Urbanism Public Safety Housing policy Crime Rates
  1. Good cities need safety and order for people to feel comfortable walking around. This makes neighborhoods lively and helps build a strong community.
  2. High crime can lead to people opposing new housing and transit options. This fear can contribute to NIMBY attitudes, stopping cities from growing and improving.
  3. Cities in Europe and Asia, along with places like New York City, show that having a strong police presence helps keep areas safe and makes urban living more appealing.

Five possible reasons China's productivity slowed down

15529 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics International Trade Productivity Corporate strategy Market Trends
  1. China's productivity growth has slowed down due to hitting natural limits in technology absorption and an aging population. As they reached the tech frontier, it became harder to improve productivity at the same pace.
  2. R&D productivity in China is low, especially in state-owned companies. The focus has shifted to quantity over quality in research, leading to many low-quality studies and less innovation.
  3. China's economy is heavily reliant on investment rather than consumption. Unlike the U.S., which benefits from high consumer spending, China may be missing out on productivity gains from a robust consumer market.

Macroeconomics: The predator of foolish regimes

19353 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Debt Management Economic Policy Socialism
  1. Bad economic decisions, like keeping currency overvalued or borrowing too much in foreign currency, can lead to big problems for any government. This can happen regardless of whether a country is socialist or capitalist.
  2. Countries often face different types of economic crises. For example, some might deal with inflation while others face deflation, and they need to respond differently to fix these situations.
  3. Leaders who think they can control the economy through micromanaging are usually getting it wrong. Big economic problems need big-picture solutions.

America doesn't really have a working class

36765 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Identity politics Voting Trends Political Discourse
  1. Many Americans, including those with college degrees, identify as 'working class', even if they earn good money. This shows that people often see themselves based on their experiences rather than their economic status.
  2. Class politics in America is tricky because the idea of a distinct 'working class' is fading. Many jobs are now varied and fragmented, making it hard for people to feel united as one economic group.
  3. Addressing economic issues is important, but Democrats should connect with voters as fellow Americans rather than trying to spark class struggle. Simply pushing class politics may not be effective.

The blue cities must be fixed

41294 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Trends Crime Rates
  1. Many big cities are struggling with issues like crime, high living costs, and poor services. This has led people to feel frustrated and move away, even voting for different political leaders.
  2. To fix these cities, it's crucial to build more housing and make it more affordable for everyone. Cities need to find ways to increase housing supply, instead of limiting it.
  3. Cities should focus on providing better public services and enforcing laws to maintain order. This means ensuring the government serves everyone effectively, not just those in charge or nonprofit groups.
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Democrats need to loudly reject progressive extremism

24823 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Elections Public Opinion Activism Progressivism
  1. Democrats need to clearly distance themselves from the progressive activist movement. This is important because many voters still see them as too extreme.
  2. Public perception can heavily impact a political candidate's success. Even if a candidate shifts towards the center, voters might still label them based on past associations.
  3. Social media has shifted how people interact with politics, making it easier for extreme views to be noticed. Many people have had firsthand experiences with progressive activism, which shapes their opinions and voting behavior.

The Taiwan posts

9706 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Conflict Studies Public Policy
  1. Taiwan has a unique culture that combines influences from both Chinese and Japanese traditions. It's famous for its delicious food and vibrant nightlife, making it a fun place to visit.
  2. Taiwan's public health system is highly effective, demonstrated by how well they handled the COVID-19 pandemic. They used strict measures and technology to keep their population safe.
  3. Taiwan is a progressive society, leading in areas like gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights. It's known for being tolerant and open-minded, setting an example in a region often dominated by conservatism.

Why Japan opened itself up to immigration

13059 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economics Policy International relations
  1. Japan used to be very strict about immigration for a long time, unlike many other rich countries. But starting around 2010, Japan began allowing more immigrants into the country.
  2. Despite not taking in many immigrants for years, Japan had a good quality of life during the 1990s and 2000s. However, the country faced issues like low wages and living standards, which led them to change their immigration policies.
  3. Many people think Japan is unique because of its racial homogeneity, but it's actually similar to other developed countries in how it deals with immigration. It's important not to create myths about Japan that could mislead other countries.

At least five interesting things: Will of the Masses edition (#55)

17353 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion Elections Social media Immigration International relations
  1. Many young Americans are moving away from platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. They are using social media less, possibly because they prefer real-life interactions or find these platforms unhealthy.
  2. The rise of drones is changing our lives and making us more vulnerable. As drones become more common, people are realizing the potential threats they pose to safety and privacy.
  3. Asian voters are increasingly leaning towards the GOP in elections. Key issues driving this shift include concerns about crime, inflation, and educational opportunities.

Identity politics isn't working

36824 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voting Trends Identity politics Public Opinion
  1. Identity politics isn't connecting with voters. Treating people as part of a racial group rather than as individuals hasn’t worked well for Democrats.
  2. Inflation is a bigger concern for people than unemployment. Voters are more focused on rising costs than job numbers.
  3. The educated class is losing touch with regular folks. There needs to be better understanding and communication between these groups.

America is losing the physical technologies of the future

15294 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Electric Vehicles National Security Energy Policy Innovation
  1. America is falling behind in key physical technologies like electric vehicles and renewable energy. This is a big deal for the country's future power and economic success.
  2. The shift in focus towards electrical technologies is often viewed through the lens of climate change rather than national power. This misunderstanding could hurt America's position in global technology.
  3. Countries like China are gaining an advantage in these technologies, which could impact America's leadership in the world. It's essential to prioritize these innovations beyond just climate talk.

Liberalism is the rebellion now

29882 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Liberalism Freedom Authoritarianism Social justice
  1. Liberalism, which values individual freedom and dignity, is losing its presence in politics today. People are beginning to feel that discussing freedom is not as popular or important as it used to be.
  2. Societal freedoms are decreasing, with fewer leaders advocating for individual rights. Issues like abortion and freedom of speech are increasingly under threat from both political sides.
  3. In today's world, believing in liberal ideals feels like joining a rebellion against powerful authoritarian influences. People who support freedom and dignity are now faced with many challenges and obstacles.

Nobody knows how to stop humanity from shrinking

26647 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demography Fertility Immigration Public Policy
  1. Humanity faces a big problem with declining population and aging, which is not getting enough attention. As birth rates drop, we risk having fewer young people to support our growing older population.
  2. The U.S. now relies heavily on immigration to maintain its population. Many other parts of the world are experiencing the same low birth rate trends, making future immigration uncertain.
  3. Fertility rates are continuously declining globally, and no one knows how to stop this trend. A smaller, older population could threaten the quality of life and economic stability.

The educated professional class is out of touch with America

28294 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Demographics Policy Analysis
  1. The educated professional class in America is growing more disconnected from the values and beliefs of the rest of the population. This split affects political views and voting patterns.
  2. Education levels in America have become polarized, with the non-college-educated voters increasingly leaning towards the Republican party. This creates challenges for Democrats, who mostly appeal to college-educated individuals.
  3. Many Americans are reconsidering the value of a college education due to rising costs and minimal benefits. If colleges want to improve enrollment, they need to make their programs more affordable and relevant.

At least five interesting things: Nerdy economics edition (#54)

16529 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Taxation Health care Regulation Productivity
  1. The Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) could help companies invest more and boost U.S. exports. It changes how corporate taxes work, making it easier for companies to grow and innovate.
  2. Construction productivity in the U.S. has been dropping, partly due to strict land-use regulations. These rules lead to smaller, less efficient construction firms, which impacts how quickly and effectively projects are completed.
  3. Not all so-called 'irrational' decisions people make are true mistakes; sometimes, it's just that the choices are too complex. We need to rethink how we view human decision-making in economics.

"Paycheck-to-paycheck" and five other popular myths

17000 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Public Policy Surveys Political Commentary
  1. Many popular economic claims, like '60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck,' are often incorrect and based on unreliable sources.
  2. Surveys from trusted government institutions show that a majority of people actually have enough savings to cover three months of expenses, contradicting the paycheck-to-paycheck myth.
  3. There are many other myths about exercise, education, immigration, and spending that are widely accepted but lack proper evidence, showing that misinformation can spread even in an information-rich society.

7 Reasons Democrats Should Be Optimistic About Their Chances in 2026 and 2028

23176 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign strategies Political Analysis
  1. Lower voter turnout could actually help Democrats win in future elections, as they tend to do better when fewer voters show up.
  2. Republicans face a challenge in finding a strong leader to replace Trump, which may hurt their ability to energize voters in upcoming elections.
  3. Historically, when one party is in power, the public often shifts against them, suggesting Democrats might benefit in the next elections.

Trumpism is kakistocracy

24882 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
  1. Trumpism focuses on loyalty over skills, leading to leaders who may not be the best choices. It seems people who worked closely with Trump often end up disliking him.
  2. Supporters of Trump seem to prioritize their loyalty to him rather than the principles he once stood for. This creates a system where only those who show unwavering loyalty are kept close.
  3. The gap between educated and less-educated voters has grown, impacting who supports Trump. Many uneducated voters feel neglected by institutions, which pushes them toward Trumpism as a reaction.

At least five interesting things: The new conservative era (#53)

16764 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Science Education reform Consumer confidence
  1. There's a big shift happening in American politics. Many people who once protested against issues like police brutality are now showing support for a conservative viewpoint.
  2. The Democratic Party seems to be influenced too much by special interest groups and might need to listen more to regular voters to regain support.
  3. Science and politics are mixing too much, causing trust issues. There's a push for science to stand apart from political debates to restore confidence in its findings.

Four years of Noahpinion

16882 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Policy Analysis International relations Social Issues
  1. The return of Trump as president signals a big change in American politics. Progressivism seems to be struggling, and many Democrats need to rethink their strategies to reconnect with voters.
  2. Global liberalism is facing serious challenges as countries like China and Russia assert more power. The cooperation among democracies to combat authoritarianism seems to be fading.
  3. Advances in technology, especially in AI and industrial policy, hold promise for the future. While concerns about job loss due to AI exist, there are reasons to be optimistic about how technology can enhance human workers' capabilities.

Why on Earth does Trump want to cancel the CHIPS Act??

23823 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Foreign Policy Manufacturing Bipartisanship
  1. The CHIPS Act is important because it helps the U.S. regain its manufacturing capacity in the semiconductor industry, crucial for technology and defense.
  2. If Trump cancels the CHIPS Act, it could weaken America's ability to compete with China, especially as China grows its manufacturing and military power.
  3. Many people are worried that this move would create greater risks for the U.S. in a time when it needs strong alliances and manufacturing capabilities to face external threats.

At least five interesting things: Trump aftermath edition (#52)

20117 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voting behavior Public Policy Social Issues
  1. Election narratives that blame racism or sexism might not explain how people voted in 2024. Many nonwhite voters shifted towards Trump, showing Democrats need to rethink their approach to win back support.
  2. Democrats could benefit from focusing on economic growth while also supporting social safety nets. They should prioritize public services and aim for a shared American identity to unite voters.
  3. Recent signs suggest that progress in AI might be slowing. A variety of factors, including data limitations and ongoing issues like 'hallucinations', point to a more uncertain future for AI development.

Americans hate inflation more than they hate unemployment

21882 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Opinion Policy Analysis Political strategy
  1. Inflation annoys people more than unemployment. When prices go up, it feels like everyone's money is worth less, making people unhappy.
  2. Many voters care about how the economy is doing, especially inflation. This has been shown in surveys where people mention inflation as a big concern.
  3. Democratic strategies may need to change. Focusing too much on full employment without worrying about inflation could lead to big political losses.

What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024

16529 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political trends Demographics Party Dynamics
  1. Asian and Hispanic voters shifted to the right in the 2024 election due to a mix of economic concerns and perceived disconnection from the Democratic Party's values. Many felt that their priorities were not being addressed.
  2. For Asian voters, issues like crime and education were key factors. Many were frustrated with rising crime rates and felt that the Democrats were not prioritizing their safety and educational opportunities.
  3. Hispanic voters also expressed economic concerns, especially about inflation and rising costs. Some felt that the Democratic Party was out of touch with their family values and priorities, contributing to their shift toward Republicans.

Why targeted tariffs are more effective than broad tariffs

16882 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic Policy Tariffs Supply Chains International relations
  1. Targeted tariffs focus on specific industries or products, helping to reduce dependence on foreign sources like China for critical goods, such as batteries.
  2. Broad tariffs can create problems by raising costs for American manufacturers, making them less competitive against foreign companies, which may worsen trade deficits.
  3. To effectively improve trade balances, policies should avoid broad tariffs and instead concentrate on targeted measures that do not negatively affect American industries.

Four reasons not to vote for Trump, and four reasons to vote for Harris

20235 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Political parties Candidates Campaigns
  1. Voting for Trump might increase threats from foreign adversaries like China and Russia. Many believe a leader needs to focus on these global challenges instead of internal conflicts.
  2. The people who tend to work with Trump often end up leaving or criticizing him. This raises concern about who would truly be in charge of the country if he were elected again.
  3. Kamala Harris is expected to continue the policies that have helped improve the economy recently, and she brings a more optimistic and patriotic tone to the Democratic party.

The alternate reality of RFK and the antivaxers

13470 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Health Policy Social movements Science communication Public Health
  1. RFK Jr. has been a strong opponent of vaccines, which may influence U.S. vaccination policies if he takes a leadership role in the government. This could lead to less public support for vaccinations.
  2. Beliefs can be useful for creating group unity, even if those beliefs are not based on facts. Sometimes, being a part of a group means accepting ideas that might not be true in reality.
  3. The tension between what is real and what people believe can impact society. It shows how important it is to balance scientific facts with how communities view and accept those facts.

If Trump loses the election, our nation can finally rest

20000 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
  1. If Trump loses the election, it might bring less drama and chaos to the country. Many people believe this could lead to a calmer environment.
  2. Trump's aggressive style of communicating can stir up conflict and unrest. His words can provoke strong reactions and lead to even more division among people.
  3. The situation in America could improve if leaders shift away from a focus on political extremes. A more peaceful and moderate approach could help heal the country.

On immigration, what Americans want is democratic control

16823 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Public Opinion Political trends Democracy Election Impact
  1. Many Americans want more control over immigration because they feel it should be a democratic process where everyone has a say. They want to choose who comes into the country.
  2. Polls show that while many people support high-skilled immigration and a pathway to citizenship, there is also support for deporting those who are in the country illegally. This shows mixed feelings about immigration.
  3. The recent surge in asylum seekers has frustrated many because it seems to bypass established immigration laws. People want better management of immigration to reflect their democratic choices.

Democrats fixed many of the problems of the early 2020s

15059 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
  1. Biden's policies helped reduce unemployment significantly after the pandemic, restoring millions of jobs. This economic recovery shows the effectiveness of government action during tough times.
  2. Biden and the Federal Reserve took steps to control inflation, leading to a quicker decrease in prices compared to other countries. Actions like raising interest rates and ending pandemic spending played a key role in this process.
  3. Crime rates began to decline as pro-police measures were put in place, and Biden's approach helped support these local efforts. The administration also finally addressed the border crisis, responding to public concerns about illegal crossings.

Thinking about "temporary hardship"

12823 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Deficits Government Public Policy
  1. The US economy is doing well, but the government has high borrowing and deficits that need to be addressed. People are worried about rising interest costs eating into the budget.
  2. Elon Musk is suggesting big cuts to federal spending to help reduce the deficit, which could lead to temporary economic hardship for many. This has raised questions about how much pain people might actually feel if these cuts happen.
  3. There's a debate over the best way to handle spending cuts and taxes. Some believe there are better methods to manage these changes without causing so much impact on everyday people, especially the poor and middle class.

Western leftists have lost the plot

67295 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International Ideology Leaders Conflict
  1. Western leftists have shown support for violent actions that are considered inhumane, such as massacres.
  2. The Western leftist movement's support for violent actions has led to a lack of moral consistency and compassion.
  3. The Palestinian cause has become central to the Western leftist movement, but recent events have caused division and moral disgust.

This is not a good way to fight racism in America

34882 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Race relations Discrimination Diversity Social Issues Government Policy
  1. Creating a multiracial society requires deep societal changes and can't be achieved through quick fixes or shortcuts
  2. Forging a shared national identity in a diverse society is challenging but achievable through extended, cooperative contact between racial groups
  3. Efforts to combat racism through shortcuts like discriminatory practices or oversimplified diversity training often backfire and require long-term, thoughtful solutions

The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

36647 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Russia Ukraine NATO Military
  1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is deeply tied to Russia's historical rivalry with Poland and its desire to extend its influence over East Europe.
  2. Ethnic imperialism, where a country seeks to dominate a region due to linguistic and cultural similarities, is a core motivation behind Russia's actions in Ukraine.
  3. Poland's economic success and strategic autonomy pose a threat to Russia's dominance in East Europe, fueling Putin's desire to maintain control and influence in the region.

You're not going to like what comes after Pax Americana

55706 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Global order
  1. The global order is experiencing increased conflict and instability following the decline of Pax Americana.
  2. Recent events like the Hamas attack on Israel and the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrate the shifting power dynamics and challenges to peace.
  3. The rise of a multipolar world with new power players like China is ushering in a more chaotic international landscape.

Trump just rug-pulled the China hawks on TikTok

21470 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Elections Propaganda Political Influence
  1. Trump's recent actions regarding TikTok have stunned many conservative China hawks, revealing potential ulterior motives and alliances.
  2. The debate on forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok involves concerns about data privacy, propaganda dissemination, and national security, highlighting the app's significant influence.
  3. The situation with TikTok exemplifies broader international conflicts, potential financial influences, and political interplays that impact policymaking and national security strategies.

Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

20235 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Jobs Economy Automation Opportunity Cost
  1. The concept of comparative advantage means that even in a world where AI outperforms humans in many tasks, humans can still find plentiful, high-paying jobs by focusing on what they do relatively better compared to other tasks.
  2. Wages have historically increased despite automation, suggesting that the job market continuously evolves and diversifies, creating new tasks for humans to perform.
  3. Concerns about AI causing human obsolescence and stagnant wages should be considered in the context of factors like energy constraints and the potential for increased inequality and adjustment challenges in the economy.

Economic losses for our allies are not wins for the U.S.

23412 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economic Disparities Trade Relations
  1. Economic losses for our allies should not be seen as wins for the U.S. It's important not to compare their economic struggles to U.S. achievements.
  2. The U.S. has outpaced many rich nations economically since 1990, sustaining a fairly constant share of global GDP.
  3. It's crucial for the U.S. to view allies like Germany, the UK, and Japan as partners, not rivals. Their strength contributes to American strength, and vice versa.

A bunch of handy charts about climate change

21882 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Green Energy Emissions Technology Global impact
  1. Climate change is becoming increasingly severe, evidenced by events like record-breaking heat, melting sea ice, and more frequent natural disasters.
  2. Efforts to address climate change are promising, with advancements in green technologies like solar power and batteries offering hope for managing the crisis.
  3. The responsibility for carbon emissions is shifting, with developed countries like the US and Europe reducing emissions significantly, while countries like China remain major contributors.