The hottest Geopolitics Substack posts right now

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NATO's Nemesis

Diane Francis • 979 implied HN points • 11 Jul 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Military Alliances Conflict Studies Eastern Europe
  1. NATO needs to step up its strength and resolve in the face of threats like Putin's actions. The alliance was formed to counter aggressiveness similar to what we see today.
  2. To truly support Ukraine, NATO should declare a clear path for Ukraine’s membership. This would reduce Putin's motivation to continue the war.
  3. NATO’s military budget is significantly larger than Russia’s, which shows that if united, the alliance could effectively counter Putin’s aims.

20 Predictions For AI in 2025

The Algorithmic Bridge • 573 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Geopolitics Business Innovation
  1. Geopolitical issues are becoming more important than concerns about AI posing a threat to humanity. The struggle between democracy and authoritarianism will be at the forefront.
  2. AI advancements will lead to new products and services, with some expected to be quite expensive. However, there won't be a significant drop in jobs due to AI progress.
  3. Not all AI challenges will be solved, and mistakes will still happen. Even as AI improves, it will occasionally produce incorrect or 'hallucinated' information.

U.S. venture capital has a globalism problem

Jeff Giesea • 279 implied HN points • 16 Sep 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Venture Capital Foreign Investment Geopolitics Innovation National Security
  1. A lot of U.S. venture capital comes from foreign investors, which can present risks to national security. It's important to know where the money is coming from to protect innovation.
  2. Stricter rules and more transparency are needed in venture capital to prevent foreign influence and risks, especially in critical tech sectors.
  3. We should encourage the creation of venture funds that support U.S. interests and work with government agencies to secure technological advancements.
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Destroying Ukraine with Idealism

Glenn’s Substack • 1019 implied HN points • 02 Jul 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Security Studies NATO Geopolitics Conflict analysis
  1. Ukraine's desire to join NATO is an idealistic view that ignores the reality of global power dynamics. Instead of thinking about what should be, it's important to consider how nations actually function and secure their interests.
  2. Pushing for NATO expansion in Ukraine can escalate conflict and create a cycle of tension. It suggests to Russia that NATO is a direct threat, leading to a need for military intervention.
  3. The argument that Ukraine has a right to join NATO oversimplifies a complex situation. Real peace might come from recognizing the security concerns of all parties rather than insisting on alliance expansion that could lead to further instability.

AI Roundup 105: AI Action Summit

Artificial Ignorance • 54 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Innovation Geopolitics Research
  1. AI regulation is slowing down as countries disagree on how to move forward. Some leaders are critical of existing acts, leading to a lack of international agreement.
  2. China is pushing ahead in an AI arms race, pushing other countries to provide more resources for AI development. Leaders in the industry are predicting rapid advancements in AI, suggesting it might drastically change society soon.
  3. Big tech companies are making strategic partnerships and adjustments to survive in the competitive AI landscape. For example, Apple plans to work with Alibaba for AI in China while other firms are focusing on custom AI designs to reduce dependency on major chip manufacturers.

War of Attrition & War Propaganda

Glenn’s Substack • 619 implied HN points • 26 Jul 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict Diplomacy Propaganda Media Geopolitics
  1. In a war of attrition, defeating the enemy is more important than capturing land, but this can lead to heavy casualties and slow progress.
  2. The media often downplays the reality of casualties to maintain public support for the conflict, creating a false image of victory.
  3. Calls for peace and negotiations are often dismissed or punished, even though they could help save lives and end the fighting.

Predictions and Prophecies for 2025

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 2601 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Geopolitics Military conflict Political Analysis
  1. The petrodollar system is declining, which could change how countries trade oil. This could cause major shifts in global finance.
  2. There’s a lot of conflict happening around the world, and some believe we might already be in World War III, though experts mostly disagree.
  3. The upcoming presidency will be crucial for America. There are concerns about potential economic collapse and global conflict affecting the country.

Chartbook 341 On thinking in medias res: An Interview with Ding Xiongfei from the Shanghai Review of Books (summer 2024)

Chartbook • 2846 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Economy Climate Policy Crisis Management
  1. Polycrisis shows that our world is facing multiple interconnected issues that can't be simply solved with clear solutions. It's about ongoing management rather than resolution.
  2. China's role in the climate crisis is crucial, and it may lead the global response to climate change, changing the narrative where the West is no longer the main actor.
  3. Understanding statistics and data is important, but they need to be seen as part of a broader political and economic system, not just as numbers reflecting reality.

2024 could be the pivotal year for Cold War 2

Noahpinion • 10529 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Cold War Global Economics Alliances
  1. 2024 could be a pivotal year for Cold War 2, with China's weakening economy and potential U.S. instability altering the global balance of power.
  2. China's economic strength is the core of New Axis power, posing a significant threat to the liberal world order by potentially overwhelming the U.S. in a war.
  3. The economic rise of China is a key factor driving Cold War 2, with its manufacturing might elevating the threat posed by the New Axis.

Putin's Hungarian

Diane Francis • 839 implied HN points • 04 Jul 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics European Union Political Leadership Foreign Policy
  1. Viktor Orbán is now leading the EU for six months, but he's got a close relationship with Russia, making him an outsider in European politics.
  2. Orbán suggested a ceasefire in Ukraine, but his request doesn't align with EU policies and seems irrational given the past invasions.
  3. He's faced criticism for undermining EU values and institutions, raising concerns about the potential impacts on Europe during his presidency.

R1 is reasoning for the masses

Artificial Ignorance • 176 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Models Deep Learning Open Source Geopolitics Research
  1. DeepSeek's new AI model, R1, is making waves in the tech community. It can solve tough problems and is much cheaper to use than existing models.
  2. The research behind R1 is very transparent, showing how it was developed using common methods. This could help other researchers create similar models in the future.
  3. R1's success signals a shift in the AI race, especially with a Chinese company achieving this level of performance. It raises questions about the future of global AI competition.

Ukraine's Trojan Trucks

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 66 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Conflict resolution Defense Policy
  1. Ukraine executed a surprise drone attack deep inside Russia that damaged a significant part of its nuclear capabilities. This shows Ukraine's military skill and creativity.
  2. The success of this operation highlights gaps in Russia's defense and intelligence, suggesting it may struggle to maintain its military strength. This could change the balance of power in the region.
  3. The use of cheap drones against a nuclear power illustrates a new direction in warfare. It raises questions about traditional military strategies and defenses for all nations, including the U.S.

The US Seems to Be Deliberately Weakening its Global Position

Phillips’s Newsletter • 120 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy International relations Economics Global Strategy Geopolitics
  1. The US is becoming weaker on the global stage, which affects its influence and power. This might lead to challenges in maintaining its leadership in international matters.
  2. Alliances between countries are more powerful than relying on individual nations alone. Strong partnerships can help ensure security and success in conflicts.
  3. China's economic strength is growing, and when considering purchasing power, it may be leading over the US. This shows that economic measures can change the perception of power between countries.

Putin's Third Front

Diane Francis • 739 implied HN points • 27 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Studies Security Studies Geopolitics Military Alliances
  1. Putin opened a new front in his conflicts by forming a security agreement with North Korea. This relationship is meant to counteract Western influence.
  2. The agreement between Russia and North Korea has worried several countries in the region, including China, Japan, and South Korea. South Korea's president criticized it as a dangerous move.
  3. The partnership raises tensions since both countries have histories of war, and it could lead to an arms race in the region.

The future of AI, work, and the world

Granted • 4751 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Work Geopolitics Psychology Podcasts
  1. Encourage a love for learning in kids rather than pushing for practical majors. Liberal arts education is about expanding minds, not just building careers.
  2. Gain diverse perspectives to broaden your mind. Explore topics like AI, global geopolitics, and work happiness.
  3. Question the status quo in education and work. Focus on asking the right questions, embracing ambiguity, and challenging common myths.

Taiwan is "Strategic" and its Fate will Determine the Future of the Asia-Pacific Region

Phillips’s Newsletter • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Asia-Pacific International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Diplomatic Affairs
  1. Taiwan is incredibly important for the Asia-Pacific region. Its location and resources make it crucial for maintaining stability and power in the area.
  2. The future of Taiwan affects not just China but also its neighbors like Japan and South Korea. If Taiwan is threatened, it can impact these countries' ability to remain independent.
  3. Political decisions regarding Taiwan can have serious consequences. For instance, changes in the U.S. stance on Taiwan could lead to major strategic setbacks for the U.S. in the region.

Davos Impressions and Ukraine: Dealing with a Cult

Phillips’s Newsletter • 124 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Issues Conflict Studies Political Analysis
  1. Visiting Davos can give insights into the current global situation, though the information may not be completely reliable. It helps in understanding different perspectives on important issues.
  2. There's a perception that American views on Ukraine are somewhat cult-like, focused mainly on understanding their leader's thoughts. This can create a narrow viewpoint.
  3. European leaders seem to recognize the danger of this mindset surrounding Ukraine but often try to appease it instead of addressing the underlying issues.

Hitler's Avatar

Diane Francis • 2078 implied HN points • 01 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Military Strategy Conflict analysis European Politics
  1. Czech President Petr Pavel believes that Europe is in danger of war again, much like it was before World War II. He wants to support Ukraine to prevent further conflict.
  2. Pavel has organized the delivery of a lot of ammunition to Ukraine quickly because he thinks if Ukraine loses, Europe will also be at risk.
  3. European leaders are starting to take the threat from Russia seriously and are discussing actions they might need to take to prepare for possible conflict. Pavel advises readiness, not fear, regarding the situation.

Tipping Point Quick Hits (02.01.24)

Tipping Point Prophecy Update by Jimmy Evans • 3341 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East Iran Neuralink United States Geopolitics
  1. The Middle East situation is extremely dangerous and volatile, with potential for wider conflict.
  2. Neuralink, the brain-computer interface company, has implanted its device in a human brain for the first time.
  3. The world is more divided than ever, with geopolitical and economic tensions reminiscent of pivotal historic conflicts.

Fortress Democracy

Diane Francis • 879 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Military Aid Geopolitics Elections
  1. The 80th anniversary of D-Day shifted global relations, with a strong focus on supporting Ukraine against Russia.
  2. Biden apologized to Ukraine for military aid delays, highlighting America’s commitment to their defense.
  3. Upcoming G7 and NATO meetings may lead to significant actions like seizing Russian assets and increasing security guarantees for Ukraine.

Taiwan: Trump’s Most Dangerous Global Challenge

The Upheaval • 1135 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Military Strategy Global relations Geopolitics
  1. China sees taking over Taiwan as a crucial goal to establish itself as a world superpower. They've set deadlines for this, with some leaders believing they need to act soon before circumstances change.
  2. The U.S. military faces serious challenges in defending Taiwan, including its reliance on long supply chains and manufacturing that could leave it vulnerable in a conflict. This might make it hard to respond quickly if an invasion happens.
  3. Defending Taiwan is not just about supporting democracy; it's about protecting U.S. interests globally. Losing Taiwan could shake the U.S.'s standing in the world and lead to a big economic crisis at home.

Power transitions: Britain, America, China

World Game • 9 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Energy Climate International relations Power Dynamics
  1. Geopolitics drives changes in energy sources, and this isn't just about climate; it's about power. The race to find new energy solutions can change global dominance.
  2. Historically, shifts in energy use have transformed world leaders. Britain rose to power with coal and steam, followed by America with electricity and factories.
  3. We may be on the brink of a new energy transition with solar power and AI. This could reshape global power dynamics again, just like past energy revolutions.

Let's map every tree on the planet

Jeff Giesea • 259 implied HN points • 28 Aug 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Policy Resource Management Geopolitics National Security
  1. The U.S. should create a new intelligence discipline called Climate & Natural Resources Intelligence (CNRINT) to better understand and manage the world's resources.
  2. Using advanced technology like drones and satellites, we can map and monitor natural resources globally, helping countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo protect their wealth from outside exploitation.
  3. There is an urgent need for the U.S. to lead in natural resources intelligence, ensuring that gathered data is used for good and benefits humanity for future generations.

China Waits

Diane Francis • 1638 implied HN points • 08 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Foreign Policy Security Studies
  1. China is benefiting from Russia's war by getting cheap energy while avoiding direct involvement. It is using this situation to increase its influence while waiting for the right moment to act.
  2. If Russia's power weakens, China may try to take back areas like Manchuria, which holds many resources. This territory has been historically important to China.
  3. While Russia struggles in the war, China is carefully repositioning itself to strengthen its economy and global influence, especially as it faces challenges from the West.

Appeasement at Munich

Thinking about... • 775 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Studies Military History Diplomacy Geopolitics
  1. History shows that appeasing aggressors can lead to greater conflicts. Just like in 1938, giving in can make things worse in the long run.
  2. Ukraine’s resistance has changed the situation. By fighting back, they have prevented further aggression and have kept a major conflict from escalating.
  3. If the U.S. supports appeasement, it risks creating a stronger aggressor. A Russian victory over Ukraine could lead to more wars and even nuclear threats in the future.

Turning the Tide in Ukraine, but Not in the Middle East

John’s Substack • 8 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Studies Geopolitics Foreign Policy Security Studies
  1. U.S. policy is changing significantly towards Ukraine and Russia, showing a shift in approach. This suggests new strategies may be developing to address the conflict in that region.
  2. However, U.S. policy towards Israel remains stagnant and hasn't adapted despite changes elsewhere. This could indicate a complex and possibly outdated perspective on the Middle East.
  3. The differences in U.S. foreign policy highlight how different regions can have vastly different responses from the same country. It's important to understand these nuances in global politics.

US Fights Democracy Abroad

Nonzero Newsletter • 372 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Democracy Political trends Geopolitics
  1. The U.S. is facing criticism for overlooking democratic backsliding in allied countries, like Romania and Georgia, to focus on countering Russian influence.
  2. AI technology is causing concerns, with incidents involving chatbots leading to severe mental health issues, highlighting the need for better safety measures in the industry.
  3. There is a political shift happening, with traditional left and right divides blurring, as some Democrats and Republicans are finding common ground against the political establishment.

Asia's Great Power Wars

ChinaTalk • 815 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Historical context Conflict resolution
  1. East Asian countries have a long history of peaceful coexistence, unlike Europe, where wars were common. They managed to build relationships based on respect and understanding, even with power imbalances.
  2. Many conflicts in East Asia were driven by internal issues rather than outside threats. Most dynasties fell because of internal problems, showing that the real danger often comes from within rather than from other nations.
  3. The idea that smaller nations have to band together against a bigger power like China isn't always true. East Asian countries often engage with China on their own terms, navigating relationships carefully without treating it as a direct threat.

The Russian Draft Dodgers Who Fled to Paradise

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 366 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🌐 International Conflict Immigration Culture Travel Geopolitics
  1. Many Russians are escaping to places like Bali to avoid military drafts and the war. They enjoy a cheaper lifestyle and beautiful surroundings.
  2. Despite their new paradise, some locals in Bali are frustrated with Russian tourists due to bad behavior, which has them on edge.
  3. Not all Russians are focusing on leisure; some, like influencers, share their experiences and concerns about the changing community.

A Requiem For Ba'athism (Part 3 of 3)

Fisted by Foucault • 60 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Nationalism Conflict Identity Ideology History
  1. Ba'athism, meant to unite Arabs, failed because tribal identities are stronger than national ones in many regions. People often identify more with their local tribes than a broader Arab identity.
  2. Religious differences present another challenge, as the intertwining of state and religion makes it hard for diverse groups to bond over a single national identity. This creates conflict among different confessions.
  3. The struggle for Ba'athist leadership between Syria and Iraq shows how internal divisions, personality clashes, and tribal loyalties made it difficult to create a unified movement in the Arab world.

Who Can Claim the Palestine Region?

Uncharted Territories • 5110 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Israel-Palestine conflict Middle East Peace process Geopolitics International relations
  1. The conflict between Israel and Palestine revolves around the question of who can legitimately claim the land.
  2. The history of the region involves various populations ruling over the land, with complex dynamics of religion, ethnicity, and governance.
  3. Ultimately, both Israelis and Palestinians have strong claims to the land, but the resolution should focus on factors like self-determination, international recognition, and adherence to legal norms.

Makers and takers

Wyclif's Dust • 2146 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Economic Models Geopolitics Conflict analysis
  1. Wars aren't always won by the richest countries. Sometimes, less wealthy states focus more on military spending and fighting, giving them advantages in conflict.
  2. Countries that struggle economically may prioritize making weapons and preparing for war, using their limited resources to specialize in conflict instead of production.
  3. Trade and economics are deeply connected to politics. In a world with no clear authority, countries often use military power to protect or expand their economic interests.

Israel's strike on Iran, Part II

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 13 implied HN points • 14 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Middle East Military International relations Conflict Geopolitics
  1. Israel's recent attacks on Iran have targeted key military leaders and nuclear facilities. This suggests that Israel aims to weaken Iran's military strength significantly.
  2. The situation is creating a power vacuum within Iran, as seen by a degree of support among Iranians for the strikes against their oppressive regime. Some Iranians feel relieved to see their oppressors targeted.
  3. There are concerns that without further action, like targeting more fortified facilities, Israel's military efforts may not achieve long-term success in stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Revisiting the Thucydides Trap

Gideon's Substack • 42 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Foreign Policy Economic Policy
  1. America's current strategy against China may be pushing us closer to conflict, even if it makes logical sense. Each action taken against China can lead to more tension and responses from them.
  2. The idea of America being the top power is becoming less certain. Other countries might start to prefer working with China, which could weaken America's alliances and influence.
  3. Instead of trying to stay the dominant power, America might benefit from fostering relationships based on shared interests. This could lead to a more complex but stable global balance, instead of constant competition.