John’s Substack • 14 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
- Trump's State of the Union can be read as him pulling back from attacking Iran because he only demanded a clear pledge that Iran will never get nuclear weapons.
- Iran's foreign minister already publicly said Iran will never develop nuclear weapons, and Trump did not insist Iran give up enrichment, ballistic missiles, or support for proxies, which makes a negotiated outcome more feasible.
- Almost every country, US military leaders, and Trump's advisers are urging against a war due to its risks and political costs, while Israel and its powerful US lobby remain the main forces pushing for military action.