The hottest Investment Strategies Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Reading the Tea Leaves

The Last Bear Standing • 49 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Market sentiment is influenced by human emotions and can swing widely, affecting prices up and down. This means that even if things look strong, feelings can drive prices lower.
  2. Historically, the market goes through cycles of growth and decline, shaped by economic changes and human behavior. We can learn from the past to understand current trends.
  3. While recent years saw some major challenges, like inflation and market drops, the economy proved resilient. New investments helped start a fresh period of growth and optimism.

Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets • 179 implied HN points • 19 Mar 22
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a lot of instability in financial markets, affecting bond and equity prices. Many investors are worried about defaults and have pulled back from investing.
  2. Commodity prices, especially oil and gas, have surged due to the ongoing conflict, further impacting inflation expectations. This rise in prices can strain economies globally.
  3. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with people feeling more uncertain about the economy. If consumers spend less, it could lead to slower economic growth in the US and Europe.

MAPS: Half-Baked Governance

Nongaap Investing • 47 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. WM Technology's stock price is reacting to a non-binding buyout proposal. The offer of $1.70 per share seems low compared to the company's potential growth targets.
  2. The recent appointment of a new CEO and his equity compensation raises red flags about the timing and motivation behind the proposal. There are concerns about whether the company is acting in the best interests of all shareholders.
  3. The governance practices at WM Technology may involve manipulation, especially regarding stock compensation and the timing of news releases. This creates distrust among investors about the sincerity of the management's intentions.

It Only Takes One Data Point to Disprove an Investment Thesis

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. It only takes one data point to disprove an investment thesis by testing for the counterfactual, which allows identifying data points that go against the thesis.
  2. A question-driven approach to investing focuses on formulating the right questions to deeply understand the investment landscape, prioritizing curiosity and critical thinking.
  3. Designing an investment thesis involves setting measurable outcomes, defining timeframes, identifying dependencies, establishing checkpoints, and being aware of the current valuation. It's crucial to recognize what's in the valuation already and how your views differ.
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A Year in Review

The Last Bear Standing • 45 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. 2024 showed a strong bull market, with big tech and AI leading the way while smaller companies struggled early on.
  2. Mid-year, signs of inflation and unemployment triggered some market concerns but were quickly eased by positive economic data and rate cuts.
  3. In general, equities did well this year, while bonds had a tougher time, especially U.S. Treasuries, which struggled with rising yields.

Shen Jianguang on Five Major Misunderstandings of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Package

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The fiscal stimulus package in China is larger than it seems. It includes various measures that could lead to significant economic support, potentially amounting to 20% of the GDP.
  2. Debt replacement efforts will not only improve local government finances but also allow for more government spending. This shift can help stimulate the economy by boosting aggregate demand.
  3. The package aims to help local governments, which can indirectly benefit businesses and households too. Increased spending can stimulate consumption and support recovery in multiple sectors.

Lessons from the Crypto Bloodbath[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 25 Jun 22
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. First principles analysis of information is crucial to avoid being manipulated on social media
  2. Crypto crashes are often fueled by greed, FOMO, lack of regulations, and vulnerability to malicious actors
  3. Cryptocurrency market crashes are not the same as stock market sales, as many crypto projects lack profitability plans and are based on speculative principles

The Most Misleading Chart

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. A commonly shared chart about U.S. credit card debt is misleading and creates unnecessary panic. It's crucial to look at the bigger picture to understand what this number really means.
  2. Despite rising credit card debt, consumers are still confident and spending money, which is often a good sign for the economy and stock market.
  3. When you see alarming headlines about growing credit card debt, remember that it's important to consider the overall context and how it reflects consumer behavior.

Quant Letter: January 2025, Week-4

The Parlour • 34 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Advanced models like the MDQR help understand market dependencies, which can make it easier for traders to create effective strategies.
  2. New methods for portfolio optimization can handle many assets at once, moving beyond the traditional limits that were previously in place.
  3. Research shows AI can effectively forecast financial risks and rewards, highlighting the growing importance of technology in finance.

Q3 2024: Clock Starts Anew

Interconnected • 46 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The new fund started on October 1, focusing on technology related to cloud computing and AI. This means the fresh investments will reflect the latest strategies and insights.
  2. Big tech companies like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are showing strong growth, indicating a possible recovery in the cloud market. This is an exciting time for investing in these sectors.
  3. With the upcoming U.S. elections and economic changes, there may be market fluctuations. It's better to stay calm and stick to long-term investing rather than reacting to short-term news.

Tippets #197

Tippets by Taps • 14 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Accenture is struggling to stay relevant as AI allows clients to do more on their own. They need to change quickly or risk being left behind by competitors.
  2. Meta is trying hard to attract top talent in AI, even attempting to hire key people from other companies. This shows how competitive the AI field is becoming.
  3. Research from MIT shows that using AI chatbots like ChatGPT could lower our brain activity, making it harder for us to think independently over time.

It’s good business, but knee-bending is gross

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Chip stocks are doing well because of high demand for AI servers, especially after positive news from Foxconn. This growth indicates a strong start for the tech sector in 2025.
  2. There are concerns about the current concentration of power in US politics, particularly with Trump in charge. Many companies feel the need to align with him for their business safety, which is seen as distasteful.
  3. Sam Altman believes we are making progress toward advanced AI and that it could significantly change industries. He is optimistic about the future of AI, stating it could lead to greater innovations and prosperity.

The Road to Global Fintech and Crypto Adoption

Ben’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 28 Jun 22
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Many traditional banks are slow to adopt new technology, which harms their ability to innovate and serve customers effectively.
  2. There is a big chance for fintech to grow since a lot of people around the world still don't have access to basic banking services.
  3. For crypto and fintech to succeed, they need better systems for security and transparency, plus the ability to process payments quickly and easily.

The Perverse Incentives Depreciating Your House

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Home prices are rising fast, making it hard for many people to think they'll ever own one. It's more of a struggle for the average person to afford a home nowadays.
  2. Builders often focus on making homes quickly and cheaply instead of making them durable and long-lasting. This means new homes might not hold their value as well as older ones.
  3. Homebuyers are not paying as much attention to quality. They’re more interested in lower prices, which can lead to issues later as newer homes may need repairs sooner.

People Have More Money Than Ever

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Many people have more money now than ever because wages have been rising faster than inflation for over a year. This means that they can buy more with their earnings.
  2. Homeowners are seeing their property values increase, while those looking to buy are facing more expensive housing costs. This shows the trade-off between rising asset values and affordability.
  3. Overall, both asset prices and wages are at all-time highs, which has led to a significant increase in net worth for Americans across all income levels, especially the bottom 50%.

A Crash vs. a Correction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps understand the reasons behind changes in housing prices. It can show whether a price change is due to a crash or a correction.
  2. Using examples from places like Phoenix and Austin can clarify how different factors influence real estate trends. Looking at specific cities can provide a clearer picture.
  3. Being aware of market trends can help you make smarter decisions in buying or selling homes. It's important to understand what is happening in the housing market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up 3.7% compared to last year, showing a steady increase in home prices.
  2. Florida has many cities experiencing large price declines, with 18 out of the top 35 cities affected.
  3. If more houses are available for sale and sales remain low, we might see a slowdown in home price growth early next year.

Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. There's a discussion about housing trends, led by Mike Simonsen from Altos Research. It's important to know what's happening in the housing market right now.
  2. The video linked offers insights on various housing aspects. Watching it can help you understand current market conditions better.
  3. CalculatedRisk Newsletter is supported by its readers. Subscribing helps the creator continue sharing valuable information.

Cannibal Spirits

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Markets can go both up and down, which is a natural part of freedom in trading. It's important to understand that fluctuations are normal.
  2. The term 'animal spirits' is often used to explain market behavior, but many believe it's overused and doesn't accurately describe what's really happening.
  3. There's a perception that the financial system is rigged, relying heavily on inflation and debt, which can create skepticism about the true state of the markets.

All These Things That I Have Longed

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Markets are changing rapidly, and many people seem confused about their movements. This uncertainty can affect how prices are set.
  2. Information processing is key to trading today. Knowing how to filter through news and social media can give a trader an advantage.
  3. There is a growing concern that technology might soon outpace human intuition in trading. If everyone relies on AI, we might lose our ability to think critically about market dynamics.

How To Find Problem-Solution Fit? (A Framework) | VC Jobs

Venture Curator • 2 HN points • 04 Jun 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Startups need to ensure their solutions fit the problems they are trying to solve for a successful venture.
  2. The process of finding Problem-Solution Fit involves moving from idea conception to validation in phases.
  3. It's crucial for founders to understand the distinction between Problem-Solution Fit and Product-Market Fit to navigate their startup's growth effectively.

Three Future States of the Early-Stage VC Ecosystem

Venture Reflections • 21 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. The early-stage VC market might return to old ways, but it's unlikely because many multi-stage firms are now investing in seed rounds. This means the landscape is changing, and firms might not find comfort in going back to the past.
  2. There could be a split in how seed and multi-stage firms operate. Seed firms may focus on smaller exits around $1 billion, while multi-stage firms chase much larger exits over $5 billion. This will change how both types of firms approach investments and support their companies.
  3. Multi-stage firms might take over the seed investing space thanks to their resources and strong networks. If they attract the best startups, smaller seed-focused firms may struggle to compete, which could reshape the future of venture capital.

Quant Letter: November 2024, Week-4

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Quanto options pricing can be improved using a mix of models that handle various aspects of finance and asset behavior. This could help in more accurate predictions and simulations.
  2. Hedge funds adapt their activist strategies to align with the preferences of major investors, leading to better results when trying to influence company decisions. This emphasizes the importance of understanding stakeholder interests.
  3. Simple machine learning models can sometimes outperform more complex ones when it comes to predicting financial markets. This shows that less can be more in data analysis.

Quant Letter: January 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 12 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. AI is being used in finance to help with investment decisions, but it might make the gap between experts and novices bigger.
  2. New research is exploring better ways to model financial risks and predict market movements using advanced tools, like machine learning.
  3. Legislative events can influence stock market performance, as seen when Congress is in session, which may lead to declines in equity values.

Chaos kills coordination

Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investment Strategies
  1. Chaos in policies can hurt the economy by making it hard to predict what will happen next. This uncertainty stops businesses from wanting to invest money.
  2. When prices change unpredictably, they become less helpful as signals for making decisions. This means people may hold off on projects that could benefit the economy.
  3. A stable set of rules is important for economic growth. Even if policies aren't perfect, having clear and consistent ones helps businesses and workers plan for the future.

Volatility "Can Be Beneficial": Trading The Election Results

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Volatility in the market can actually provide good trading opportunities. When things are uncertain, smart traders can find chances to profit.
  2. Listening to expert traders can be really helpful, especially those who are honest about their successes and failures. It helps build trust and understand the market better.
  3. Election results often change market dynamics, creating unique situations for investors. Keeping track of these changes can be essential for making informed decisions.

Live-In House Flipping 101

Austin's Analects • 19 implied HN points • 10 Aug 22
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Real estate investing requires both learning and actually taking action - spending time learning is important, but actually doing it is crucial for success.
  2. The Live-In Flip strategy is a conservative way to start real estate investing without high risks, providing opportunities for learning and DIY renovations to build equity.
  3. Live-In Flipping has pros such as tax benefits, renovating at a comfortable pace, learning opportunities, saving money with DIY projects, but also cons like living in a construction zone, potential emotional attachment to the property, and continuous work requirements.

Data Update 3 for 2022: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets • 39 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Inflation has been high for a while, affecting how investors view the market. People are worried it won't just go away and are trying to figure out its impact on stocks and bonds.
  2. How we measure inflation can change depending on what we look at. What's important is how the market expects inflation to behave in the future, rather than just focusing on what's already happened.
  3. Interest rates and inflation are closely linked. If inflation expectations rise, it can push interest rates up, and this also affects how different investments perform, particularly when inflation is unexpected.

Clouded Judgement 10.25.24 - Misaligned Incentives

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capitalists are changing how they work with founders. Instead of focusing on big wins together, some are now just trying to make quick money from management fees.
  2. Founders should be careful about raising too much money too early. Getting larger sums from investors can often come with higher valuations, which can hurt the business long-term.
  3. It's important for founders to know how many other companies their investors are supporting. If an investor has too many companies, they might not have enough time to help yours succeed.

Clouded Judgement 12.27.24 - 2024 Year End Review

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. In 2024, the median multiple for cloud software stocks was 6.1x, showing stability throughout the year. This means that software companies were valued similarly at the beginning and end of the year.
  2. Only a few companies had impressive growth, with just 3 companies increasing over 100% in stock price. Most companies had mild performance, with half going up and half going down.
  3. Key companies like Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, and Datadog consistently ranked in the top ten for valuation multiples. This shows their strong market position over the past few years.

Quant Letter: December 2023, Week-3

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Recent research is exploring innovative methods for quantitative investing, such as using deep learning algorithms and new portfolio optimization models.
  2. There are profitable opportunities in the ETF lending market due to cost differences between borrowing ETFs and stocks, creating room for cross-ETF arbitrage.
  3. Studies are showcasing the importance of adaptive investment strategies focused on resilience, active ownership, and broader financial models to navigate fast-changing environments.

It wasn’t always this way

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Central banks today are better at managing inflation than they were 25 years ago. They now have a more effective system that targets inflation instead of just controlling money supply.
  2. Inflation targeting has become the main approach for many central banks, replacing older methods that often failed. This helps ensure more stable economies.
  3. While some people want to try new economic policies, the current system is generally better than past strategies that led to crises. It's important to remember the lessons learned from history.

Clouded Judgement 2.23.24 - Rule of X

Clouded Judgement • 15 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The importance of growth and profitability in the Rule of 40 for cloud software companies varies over time, with current public markets valuing growth 3.0x more than FCF margin in valuation multiples.
  2. 2024 guides from Q4 calls are not increasing consensus estimates, indicating companies are setting cautious expectations amidst market uncertainty.
  3. Valuation multiples for SaaS businesses are calculated based on their projected revenue, with growth, FCF margin, and NTM growth rate influencing stock valuations.

Philosophical economics: The golden calf of business and finance

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Cutting taxes isn't always the best option for improving the economy. Sometimes, raising taxes can actually help fund important things like infrastructure and education.
  2. There's a lot of disagreement about whether low taxes lead to higher profits and growth. In reality, many developed countries show no clear link between tax rates and economic growth.
  3. It's important to consider how tax money is spent. If governments invest in useful projects, they can create more value than just cutting taxes.

Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 08 Jan 22
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Having a lot of data isn't always helpful. Sometimes, too much information can make it harder to make good decisions.
  2. Just because everyone thinks something is right doesn't mean it is. Crowds can be wrong, so it's important to think critically about popular opinions.
  3. Using data effectively requires understanding and skill. Knowing how to read the data properly can help you make better investment choices.

Back in the Classroom: Time to Teach!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 21
🚌 Education Investment Strategies
  1. Online teaching can come very close to the experience of being in a classroom, so it's important for teachers to offer something special to keep students engaged.
  2. Some subjects work better in an online format and will continue to be taught that way even after the pandemic, making it essential to adapt teaching methods.
  3. While teaching online has its perks, there's a unique energy and connection in a physical classroom that many teachers miss and cherish.