The hottest Investment Strategies Substack posts right now

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Lessons from the Crypto Bloodbath[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 25 Jun 22
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Financial Education Investment Strategies Regulation
  1. First principles analysis of information is crucial to avoid being manipulated on social media
  2. Crypto crashes are often fueled by greed, FOMO, lack of regulations, and vulnerability to malicious actors
  3. Cryptocurrency market crashes are not the same as stock market sales, as many crypto projects lack profitability plans and are based on speculative principles

Clouded Judgement 1.16.25 - December Inflation

Clouded Judgement • 4 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic data Investment Strategies Valuation Metrics Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market's current mood is cautious, as investors are eagerly waiting for important data about the economy. Strong data might mean higher interest rates could stay longer than expected.
  2. Recent inflation figures came in lower than expected, causing a positive reaction in the stock market, particularly with a significant rise in the Nasdaq index.
  3. SaaS companies are often valued based on their expected revenue growth. Despite some not being profitable now, their future growth potential can make them appealing to investors.

The Road to Global Fintech and Crypto Adoption

Ben’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 28 Jun 22
💰 Finance Fintech Cryptocurrency Digital Assets Investment Strategies Market Trends
  1. Many traditional banks are slow to adopt new technology, which harms their ability to innovate and serve customers effectively.
  2. There is a big chance for fintech to grow since a lot of people around the world still don't have access to basic banking services.
  3. For crypto and fintech to succeed, they need better systems for security and transparency, plus the ability to process payments quickly and easily.

Quant Letter: December 2023, Week-3

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
💰 Finance Quantitative Financial Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. Recent research is exploring innovative methods for quantitative investing, such as using deep learning algorithms and new portfolio optimization models.
  2. There are profitable opportunities in the ETF lending market due to cost differences between borrowing ETFs and stocks, creating room for cross-ETF arbitrage.
  3. Studies are showcasing the importance of adaptive investment strategies focused on resilience, active ownership, and broader financial models to navigate fast-changing environments.
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How To Find Problem-Solution Fit? (A Framework) | VC Jobs

Venture Curator • 2 HN points • 04 Jun 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies Venture Capital Market Analysis
  1. Startups need to ensure their solutions fit the problems they are trying to solve for a successful venture.
  2. The process of finding Problem-Solution Fit involves moving from idea conception to validation in phases.
  3. It's crucial for founders to understand the distinction between Problem-Solution Fit and Product-Market Fit to navigate their startup's growth effectively.

Clouded Judgement 10.11.24 - Budget Flush

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Corporate Finance Startup funding
  1. A budget flush happens when companies spend leftover budget at the end of the year to avoid losing any funds. This can boost sales for software companies looking to close deals quickly.
  2. Last year's budget flush was stronger than usual, with companies spending more due to concerns over budget cuts. This year, a similar trend could happen, driven by a more positive economic outlook.
  3. The performance of software stocks is rising, signaling optimism in the market. Investors are hopeful that major companies will report good earnings, which could lead to more investments in the software sector.

Clouded Judgement 2.23.24 - Rule of X

Clouded Judgement • 15 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Valuation Metrics Company performance Investment Strategies Financial trends
  1. The importance of growth and profitability in the Rule of 40 for cloud software companies varies over time, with current public markets valuing growth 3.0x more than FCF margin in valuation multiples.
  2. 2024 guides from Q4 calls are not increasing consensus estimates, indicating companies are setting cautious expectations amidst market uncertainty.
  3. Valuation multiples for SaaS businesses are calculated based on their projected revenue, with growth, FCF margin, and NTM growth rate influencing stock valuations.

Live-In House Flipping 101

Austin's Analects • 19 implied HN points • 10 Aug 22
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Real estate investing requires both learning and actually taking action - spending time learning is important, but actually doing it is crucial for success.
  2. The Live-In Flip strategy is a conservative way to start real estate investing without high risks, providing opportunities for learning and DIY renovations to build equity.
  3. Live-In Flipping has pros such as tax benefits, renovating at a comfortable pace, learning opportunities, saving money with DIY projects, but also cons like living in a construction zone, potential emotional attachment to the property, and continuous work requirements.

Data Update 3 for 2022: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets • 39 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Asset Classes Investment Strategies
  1. Inflation has been high for a while, affecting how investors view the market. People are worried it won't just go away and are trying to figure out its impact on stocks and bonds.
  2. How we measure inflation can change depending on what we look at. What's important is how the market expects inflation to behave in the future, rather than just focusing on what's already happened.
  3. Interest rates and inflation are closely linked. If inflation expectations rise, it can push interest rates up, and this also affects how different investments perform, particularly when inflation is unexpected.

Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 08 Jan 22
💰 Finance Data Analysis Investment Strategies Market Trends Company Valuation Economic Indicators Corporate Finance
  1. Having a lot of data isn't always helpful. Sometimes, too much information can make it harder to make good decisions.
  2. Just because everyone thinks something is right doesn't mean it is. Crowds can be wrong, so it's important to think critically about popular opinions.
  3. Using data effectively requires understanding and skill. Knowing how to read the data properly can help you make better investment choices.

Back in the Classroom: Time to Teach!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 21
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Online Learning Investment Strategies
  1. Online teaching can come very close to the experience of being in a classroom, so it's important for teachers to offer something special to keep students engaged.
  2. Some subjects work better in an online format and will continue to be taught that way even after the pandemic, making it essential to adapt teaching methods.
  3. While teaching online has its perks, there's a unique energy and connection in a physical classroom that many teachers miss and cherish.

The ESG Movement: The "Goodness" Gravy Train Rolls On!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 14 Sep 21
💼 Business Finance Corporate Governance Sustainability Investment Strategies Market Trends
  1. Measuring goodness in businesses is really hard. Different people have different views on what is 'good,' making it tough to agree on what counts.
  2. Being a good company might help some businesses make more money, but it can also hurt others. The proof that being good pays off is still unclear.
  3. Trusting companies to be good for society isn’t enough. It’s important for individuals to make their own choices and not just rely on businesses to solve social issues.

Harmony is finally coming to the carbon markets: how this marketplace platform delivers clarity

The Green Techpreneur • 4 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Data Transparency Investment Strategies Climate solutions
  1. CEEZER is a marketplace platform bringing harmony, transparency, and data to the carbon market.
  2. CEEZER aims to help buyers and sellers navigate the complexity of carbon quality and buying decisions by providing 3.5 million data points and AI analysis.
  3. Magnus and his team built CEEZER to provide a data-driven, non-BS approach to the carbon market, focusing on impactful climate action and long-term commitment.

Sounding good or Doing good? A Skeptical Look at ESG

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 21 Sep 20
💼 Business Corporate Finance Investment Strategies Social Responsibility Market Trends
  1. ESG, which stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, is a popular business approach, but its actual benefits are unclear. Some argue it makes companies better, while others believe companies that do well just appear more socially responsible.
  2. Measuring social goodness is complicated because different services often give very different scores to the same company. This inconsistency makes it hard to agree on what makes a company 'good' or 'bad.'
  3. Investors should be cautious with ESG investments. Sometimes, focusing on social responsibility might not lead to higher profits. It's important to look at the bigger picture and not just rely on ESG ratings.

Can you Scale a Venture Capital Fund?

Superfluid • 2 HN points • 14 Jun 23
💼 Business Venture Capital Investment Strategies Startup Ecosystem Financial Analysis
  1. The current venture capital model is flawed with oversupply of capital leading to inflated early-stage valuations.
  2. There is a need for a rethinking of venture capital funding model to balance fund size, number of investments, and ownership stake.
  3. Smaller seed rounds focused on hitting milestones may be more rewarding than accepting large cheques with high valuations.

How equity in tech companies works

The Skip • 2 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
💼 Business Employee Benefits Investment Strategies
  1. Equity in tech companies is important as it can result in significant financial gains for employees
  2. Understanding terms like vesting, cliff, exercise, and strike price is crucial in valuing equity packages
  3. Different types of equity instruments like restricted stock, stock options, and RSUs have unique tax implications and considerations

Value Investing III: Requiem, Rebirth or Reinvention?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Asset Valuation Investment Strategies
  1. Value investing has become too strict and doesn't adapt to new businesses, especially in tech. This has caused some investors to miss great opportunities.
  2. It's important to understand the difference between value and price when investing. These concepts are different and need different ways to look at them.
  3. Investing isn't about being morally right; it's about making smart choices. Value investors should respect other investing styles and learn from them to improve their own strategies.

A Viral Market Update XI: The Flexibility Premium

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 Jul 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Corporate Finance Risk management Economic Trends
  1. Flexibility is key for businesses during tough times. Companies that can quickly adapt their operations are often more successful.
  2. Investment, operating, financing, and cash return flexibilities are important factors. Companies that manage these well are more likely to thrive.
  3. However, focusing on flexibility can have trade-offs like shorter business lifecycles and social costs. It's crucial to balance flexibility with long-term stability.

A Viral Market Update VII: Mayhem with Multiples

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 Apr 20
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Risk Assessment Equity markets
  1. Market prices have been very volatile as the coronavirus crisis continues, but there's been some recovery in stock values recently. People are looking for signs of stability in their investments.
  2. The use of pricing multiples, like PE ratios, is becoming less reliable during this crisis. Investors need to be cautious and consider the uncertainties that come with these financial metrics.
  3. Different asset classes have performed differently, with healthcare stocks generally doing well while energy and financial sectors have struggled. Understanding these trends can help investors make better choices.

Venture Investing 101: Equal’s Required Reading List for New Hires

Equal Ventures • 0 implied HN points • 14 May 20
💼 Business Startups Investment Strategies Market Analysis
  1. Equal Ventures values cognitive diversity in their team, believing it provides unique insights into the markets and companies they invest in.
  2. The firm has a standard reading list for new hires, consisting of books that have influenced the structure of Equal Ventures, their investment decisions, and how they work with entrepreneurs.
  3. Books recommended by Equal Ventures include titles exploring technological revolutions, Venture Capital history, platform business models, management frameworks like OKRs, and strategies for value creation and competitive advantage in investing.

A Viral Market Meltdown Part II: Clues in the Debris!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 20
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Impacts Investment Strategies Risk Assessment Stock Analysis
  1. The coronavirus has significantly impacted global markets, causing a loss of around $7.3 trillion globally in just three weeks. Investors are clearly reacting strongly to the uncertainty surrounding the virus.
  2. Different sectors are feeling the effects of the market downturn unevenly. Industries like energy and finance have suffered the most while health care and utilities have remained more stable.
  3. Market behaviors suggest a movement towards larger companies as safer investments, but some smaller stocks have seen slight gains. This goes against the usual trend of investors flocking to larger entities during crises.

Data Update 5: Relative Risk and Hurdle Rates

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 20
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Risk management Investment Strategies Valuation Methods Market Analysis
  1. You can estimate the risk of different companies even if you don't like using betas. There are other ways to measure risk that might suit you better.
  2. When valuing investments, it’s important to first determine their risk, because that helps set a safe buying price. This means understanding both equity and debt costs.
  3. The cost of capital is calculated by looking at how much companies have to pay for funding, taking into account their mix of debt and equity. This is key for valuing companies correctly.

A Viral Market Meltdown: Fear or Fundamentals?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 26 Feb 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Indicators Investment Strategies Risk Assessment Valuation Methods
  1. The recent market crisis is driven by fear stemming from the COVID-19 virus, which complicates predictions about economic impacts. Investors are feeling uncertain and need to approach their decisions with caution.
  2. Market drops can be alarming, but it's important to view them in the larger context of overall market performance. Regular investors might not see major changes in their portfolios over the long term despite recent losses.
  3. It's essential to rely on your own judgment when making investment decisions, especially during uncertain times. With ongoing developments regarding the virus, staying informed and adaptable is key.

Data Update 1 for 2020: Setting the table

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 Jan 20
💰 Finance Data Analysis Corporate Finance Risk Assessment Investment Strategies
  1. Accessing raw data for companies is easy now, but choosing the right data sources and how to analyze it is important. It's like picking the best ingredients for a recipe.
  2. Using different types of data, like macro and micro data, helps provide a clearer picture of a company's financial health. Each type of data tells a part of the company's story.
  3. Data can be biased and misused, so it's important to look beyond just numbers. Making decisions based on data should include critical thinking and understanding the context.

The Market is Huge! Revisiting the Big Market Delusion

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Dec 19
💼 Business Market Analysis Valuation Methods Investment Strategies Entrepreneurship Venture Capital
  1. A lot of new companies think they can succeed just because the market seems big. They often ignore the fact that success isn't guaranteed, and many companies fail despite the big market promise.
  2. Overconfidence is a major issue for entrepreneurs and investors, leading them to believe their app or service will win big without considering competition or practical challenges.
  3. Investors and companies often focus on growth numbers instead of actual profits, leading to high prices for companies that may not have a solid business model, which can result in dramatic price corrections later.

A Teaching Manifesto: An Invitation to my Spring 2020 classes

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Dec 19
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Online Learning Investment Strategies
  1. The Spring 2020 classes will be available online for free, allowing anyone to watch the sessions and access materials at their convenience. You can choose to take the classes in real-time or catch up later with the recorded videos.
  2. There is a free online version of the classes that offers shorter, 12-15 minute videos for easier viewing. These are designed to fit better into people's busy lives compared to the longer, full-length sessions.
  3. NYU now offers a paid certificate version of the classes, which includes quizzes, projects, and live sessions with the instructor to help deepen understanding and ensure learning. This version is different from the free classes and has additional requirements.

US Equities: Resilient Force or Case Study in Denial?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 19
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Market Analysis Risk Assessment Economic Trends
  1. The stock market has been strong despite bad news, but investors feel unsure and divided about the future. It’s hard to know whether to be optimistic or pessimistic right now.
  2. Some people worry that stocks are overpriced compared to history, but it's important to consider if earnings have also increased. Prices can be high, but that doesn't necessarily mean they’re not justified.
  3. A few big companies have driven a lot of the stock gains, which can be concerning. However, this concentration isn't new, and it often reflects changes in the economy and how businesses operate.

Is there a signal in the noise? Yield Curves, Economic Growth and Stock Prices!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Dec 18
💰 Finance Economic Indicators Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Stock Market
  1. Yield curves can give clues about the economy, but they are not always reliable predictors. It’s important to consider all the data when interpreting changes in the yield curve.
  2. The short end of the yield curve seems to have a stronger link to economic growth, while the long end shows little correlation. This suggests that short-term rates are more significant for understanding economic trends.
  3. In recent years, the relationship between yield curves and economic performance has changed. It's essential to be cautious when using past indicators to predict future markets, as the economic environment is different now.

Trillion Dollar Toppers: Market Triggers, Value Drivers and Pricing Catalysts!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Sep 18
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Valuation Corporate Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Market capitalization milestones, like reaching a trillion dollars, don't change a company's fundamentals, but they can affect investor emotions and behavior. These numbers can create buzz and might influence decisions, even if nothing actually changes in the company.
  2. Investors often react differently to market triggers. Some focus on long-term value based on earnings while others rely on technical indicators. Understanding both perspectives can help investors navigate the market more effectively.
  3. The distinction between value drivers and pricing effects is important. Value is based on a company's fundamentals, while pricing can be influenced by market mood. Recognizing this difference can guide investors in making more informed decisions.

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: It's Complicated!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 18
💰 Finance Interest Rates Stock Markets Economic Policies Market Trends Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve doesn't have total control over interest rates. It can influence short-term rates, but other economic factors play a bigger role in how markets react.
  2. The link between interest rates and stock prices is not simple. While higher rates typically hurt stock prices, other factors like economic growth and inflation can change that effect.
  3. When looking at stock values, it's important to have a clear story. Different scenarios about the economy and interest rates can lead to different conclusions about stock prices.

A Viral Market Meltdown VI: The Price of Risk

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Apr 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Risk Assessment Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. The stock market has been very volatile recently, but there was a slight calm where prices only changed by small amounts, which felt stable compared to earlier weeks.
  2. Investors are worried about risks, which has made them demand higher returns on both stocks and bonds. This means that the price of risk is rising across the board.
  3. The pandemic is making it vital for companies to regularly update their estimates of risk and returns instead of relying on old data, as the market is shifting rapidly.

The ebb and flow

do clouds feel vertigo? • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Models Risk Analysis
  1. Time isn't always the same for everyone. There's regular time for coordination and a deeper, personal sense of timing that shapes our experiences.
  2. The concept of 'kairos' highlights the right moment to take action - it's about finding those critical opportunities in life.
  3. Financial markets show that prices reflect collective disagreements and decisions. They hold important information about how people view value over time.

Looking Back on the First Annual Climate Capital Summit

Equal Ventures • 0 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Green Technology Investment Strategies
  1. Climate progress is not solely dependent on federal legislation like the IRA; local and state levels play a crucial role in accelerating climate action.
  2. Storage technology was a major focus at the Climate Capital Summit, with discussions on its versatile applications across various industries and its potential to drive positive growth in the climate sector.
  3. While there's a push to reduce funding to big oil, there's also recognition of the role oil and gas companies can play in advancing climate initiatives, leveraging their resources and expertise for progress.

Marking Time: A new year, a fresh semester and its class time!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 21
🚌 Education Corporate Finance Valuation Investment Strategies Teaching Methods
  1. Teaching is all about having a clear story throughout the course. Each class connects through a central theme that helps students remember what they learned.
  2. Corporate finance is super important because it relates to any decision involving money. Knowing how to run a business means understanding corporate finance.
  3. Investment philosophies show that there isn't just one way to be a successful investor. Different strategies work for different people, and trying to copy famous investors often doesn't lead to the same level of success.

Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 09 Jan 21
💰 Finance Data Analysis Market Trends Investment Strategies Corporate Finance Economic Impact
  1. Data is most valuable when it's unique and exclusive. If everyone has access to the same data, it loses its worth.
  2. It's important to look at the big picture with data to avoid tunnel vision. By understanding industry norms, investors can better judge individual stocks.
  3. Data can expose misinformation and challenge common beliefs. Relying on facts rather than opinions helps clarify the truth in financial discussions.

A Viral Market Update XIV: A Wrap on the COVID market, premature or not!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 05 Nov 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Stock Market Economic Trends Risk management
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic caused major shifts in financial markets, with significant gains in technology and healthcare sectors while energy and real estate suffered. Companies that adapted quickly have done better than those that did not.
  2. Younger and high-growth companies have gained more value during the crisis, while older and low-growth firms have lost ground. This shows a trend towards investing in future potential rather than established stability.
  3. The stock market's recovery suggests that investors are hopeful about the economy bouncing back despite ongoing uncertainties. This reflects a belief that the worst of the crisis has passed, even though challenges remain.