The hottest Investment Strategies Substack posts right now

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What Will Last Long-Term: A Framework

DeFi Education • 1079 implied HN points • 21 May 22
🔮 Crypto Investment Strategies
  1. It's tough to stay motivated when prices drop, but that's a common feeling in crypto. Giving up seems easy, but believing in the future is important.
  2. Many people doubt blockchain ideas, but there's real power in decentralized systems. It's a new way of doing things that requires patience.
  3. Instead of selling your investments in frustration, consider holding on for better times. Staying committed could pay off in the long run.

Top Links 625 Decomposing economic surprise. When threats work and when they don't. Is quantum the new AI? And the Secret Leviathan.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index for the US shows how unexpected events in the economy can change predictions. It's important to pay attention to these surprises to get a better understanding of the current economic climate.
  2. Understanding when threats are effective or not can help in managing situations better. Knowing the right time to take action can make a big difference in outcomes.
  3. Quantum technology is being compared to AI as a new frontier in innovation. It's exciting to think about how these technologies might change our future.

A Year-End Update

Concoda • 335 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The year was challenging, but the blog has successfully focused on financial topics and gained more readers.
  2. Infographics created by the blog have helped explain complex monetary systems, making them more accessible to subscribers.
  3. There is excitement for what's coming next year, with plans for even more detailed content.

Daily Chartbook #222

Daily Chartbook • 1388 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The number of homes for sale in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level and saw the first annual decline since April 2022.
  2. The median U.S. home sale price was $419,103 in May, just a 3.1% decrease from the previous year.
  3. The American Trucking Associations' For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.4% in May after a decrease in April.

Top Links 616 Global corporate debt surge. Chicago's fiscal blues. Depoliticizing the railways of the Raj.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Global corporate debt is rising sharply, which might affect the economy. This shows companies are borrowing a lot more money than before.
  2. Chicago is facing serious financial problems. The city's budget issues could impact its services and operations.
  3. There is a movement to make the railways in India less political. This could help improve efficiency and service for train travelers.
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Limbo

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 39 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Volatility is common in later stages of a market. Expect wild changes in market prices as things shift.
  2. Job cuts are increasing, showing a potential economic downturn. Many big companies are laying off workers due to various pressures.
  3. The housing market is cooling off with more sellers than buyers. This imbalance suggests that home prices may start to fall soon.

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

Sushi Part 2, Valuation and Consolidated Q&A

DeFi Education • 1418 implied HN points • 18 Aug 21
🔮 Crypto Investment Strategies
  1. Valuation of the protocol and its income are key topics discussed. Understanding how much a protocol is worth and how it generates money is important.
  2. The aggressive pressure from venture capitalists appears to be easing off. This change can affect the market price positively.
  3. The price of the asset has finally moved back into the teens after some fluctuation. Tracking these price movements can help investors make informed decisions.

Venture Capital Unbundled

Investing 101 • 235 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capital is shifting away from big brands and focusing more on individual investors. People want to work with specific individuals who they feel are genuine and relatable.
  2. Many investors are moving around to find better opportunities or roles, but this trend is also about the changing business model in venture capital. Investors are looking for ways to adapt and thrive in a new landscape.
  3. The term 'venture capital' is becoming less useful as it tries to cover many different investment strategies. There is a need for diverse approaches and voices in building startups, which is exciting and refreshing.

Revisiting One Last Funny Chart

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Low interest rates are often thought to cause high housing prices, but the actual situation is more complicated and involves other factors.
  2. Migration from places like Los Angeles to Phoenix affected housing demand, suggesting that it wasn't just low rates driving the price spikes.
  3. There's debate about how much the increase in debt and risky borrowing contributed to the housing market issues, complicating the traditional narratives about housing crises.

Why Do VC Firms Want an Option Pool Before the VC Round? | Lessons from the Dot-Com Era for Generative AI Hype| How Startups Use VC Funds to Invest in Other Startups? | VC Remote Jobs and More

Venture Curator • 179 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. VC firms prefer having an option pool before the funding round to ensure proper allocation of shares and ownership percentages among founders, investors, and future employees.
  2. Lessons from the Dot-Com era suggest parallels with the current Generative AI hype, highlighting potential trends in commoditization, emergence of innovative disruptors, and advice for startups to focus on long-term goals.
  3. Startups often reinvest VC funds into other startups, showcasing a trend seen during peak market craziness, where companies like Stripe and Coinbase made significant investments.

Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash flows

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Buybacks are becoming more common than dividends for companies to return cash to shareholders. Companies find buybacks more flexible and less of a commitment than regular dividend payments.
  2. Dividends should be one of the last steps in a company's financial decisions. If a company has no good investments, it should consider paying dividends or buybacks as a way to return cash to owners.
  3. There are tax differences between dividends and buybacks that may influence shareholder preferences. Although dividends used to be taxed more heavily, the gap has narrowed in recent years.

Elon's Twitter Play: Valuation Question or Political Rorschach Test?

Musings on Markets • 719 implied HN points • 21 Apr 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investment Strategies
  1. Elon Musk's involvement with Twitter raises questions about the platform's current value and management. Some believe his takeover could bring needed changes, while others worry about his unpredictable nature.
  2. Twitter's business struggles are evident despite its vast user base and cultural impact. The platform has failed to convert engagement into significant revenue growth, leading to disappointing stock performance.
  3. Political beliefs heavily influence opinions on Musk's bid for Twitter. Supporters view it as a chance for free speech, while opponents worry about concentrated ownership and influence in media.

Does a hundred wrongs make one right?

inexactscience • 59 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. A famous bet involving coin flips shows how people's risk preferences can be inconsistent. People might reject a single gamble but accept multiple repeats because they think it lowers their risk.
  2. The original advice about investing suggests buying stocks when young and bonds as you age. However, Samuelson's argument raises doubts about this common belief, challenging how we think about risk.
  3. The idea of loss aversion helps explain why people might choose to repeat risky bets. People tend to feel the pain of losing money more than the joy of gaining, which can lead to seemingly irrational decisions.

MercadoLibre, Inc Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. MercadoLibre (MELI) is a Latin American e-commerce giant with remarkable growth, experiencing over 4,000% return in 16 years since its IPO.
  2. MELI's success is driven by a strong ecosystem of online commerce, digital payments, logistics, and advertising solutions.
  3. The company faces risks like regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and increasing competition, but has growth opportunities in the unbanked market and logistics services.

Thoughts on the contract-for-differences (CfD)

GEM Energy Analytics • 179 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. A contract-for-difference (CfD) helps energy producers by giving them a stable price. This way, they won't lose money if market prices drop.
  2. CfDs can reduce the risk of high profits during energy crises, aiming to keep electricity prices lower for consumers. They're designed to share some of the financial risks between producers and the government.
  3. The success of CfDs depends on accurately predicting future energy prices, which is really hard. If prices drop too low, it could hurt new energy projects and make it tougher for power producers to plan.

Raising DeFi's Standards: Where We Need to go if We Want Institutions to Buy Our Bags

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 01 Feb 22
🔮 Crypto Investment Strategies
  1. DeFi needs to improve its standards to attract institutional investors. Nobody wants to invest in low-quality or risky projects.
  2. Investors should be more careful with where they put their money. Supporting better projects could lead to a healthier market.
  3. The crypto space should focus on creating long-term value rather than quick gains. This will benefit everyone in the long run.

Disinflation vs Deflation Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 159 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Disinflation means prices are still going up, but not as fast as before. It's a slowdown in inflation, which can be seen as a good sign for the economy.
  2. Deflation is when prices actually fall, which can seem good for prices but often leads to negative effects like less spending and economic slowdown.
  3. A balanced approach is crucial. Some inflation is often healthy for the economy because it encourages people to spend and invest, avoiding the risks linked to both disinflation and deflation.

When we lost our minds: Pt.1 Overview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Many people believe the 2008 financial crisis was inevitable, but this oversimplifies what really happened. It's important to question how we understand the events leading up to the crisis.
  2. High home prices and rental costs are more about limited housing supply than just low interest rates. Building more homes could help address these issues.
  3. Experts often misunderstood the role of foreign capital and how it influenced the US economy. Rather than viewing borrowing negatively, it can be a way to invest in growth.

The Curious Case of NASDAQ:ARM's Low Float

Irrational Analysis • 79 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Masayoshi Son's involvement in ARM (LTD) through SoftBank and Vision Funds sheds light on the company's strategic financial structures.
  2. The low free-float of NASDAQ:ARM due to the private transaction between SoftBank and Vision Fund 1 raises concerns about the IPO valuation and the overall stock price.
  3. ARM's position in the embedded/IoT market faces challenges due to RISC-V competition and customers' trend towards vertical integration, posing a threat to ARM's dominance in this market.

Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Every housing downturn has its own unique challenges. Just like unhappy families, each downturn has different reasons why it's tough.
  2. It's important to avoid comparing today's housing market with the past bubble and bust. The lending standards today are much stricter, making a big difference.
  3. Demographics play a big role in the housing market. Today, we're seeing a slower population growth compared to the early 80s, which affects house prices differently.

Depreciation explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Depreciation is when things lose their value over time, like cars and electronics. This impacts how much you could sell them for later.
  2. For businesses, depreciation helps account for the decrease in value of their assets, matching costs with how much money those assets help make over time.
  3. Knowing how quickly something depreciates can guide your buying decisions. Some items, like luxury goods, hold their value better than others.

What is an ETF?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 179 implied HN points • 18 May 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. An ETF is a collection of different investments that you can buy as one package. This lets you invest in many assets like stocks and bonds without picking each one separately.
  2. ETFs are traded throughout the day like stocks, while mutual funds are only traded at the end of the day. This makes ETFs more flexible for buying and selling.
  3. ETFs usually have lower costs than mutual funds because they are passively managed. They also show their holdings daily, making it easier to know what you're investing in.

When venture incentives and founder needs diverge

Alex's Personal Blog • 164 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Venture capitalists can make money off their 2% fees without needing successful company exits. This creates a situation where they might prioritize raising more funds over helping founders succeed.
  2. Large venture funds may overpay for investments to quickly deploy capital, which can lead to problems for founders who might be offered too much money at high valuations.
  3. There's a debate about how much authors should be paid for their work being used in AI training. Some authors feel $2,500 per book isn't enough compensation for potentially being replaced by technology.

Net worth: what is it and how to calculate it

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Net worth is the total value of what you own minus what you owe. It's like seeing how much money you have if you sold everything and paid off your bills.
  2. Calculating your net worth helps you understand your financial situation. It can show if you're actually doing well or if debt is holding you back.
  3. Regularly checking your net worth can help you track your financial progress. You want it to grow over time as you save and earn more money.

Ode to America

Net Interest • 41 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The story of finance in America is tied to its roots in railroads. Railroads brought massive investments, which led to innovative financial practices and the rise of stock markets.
  2. American optimism is a big part of its business culture. Investors in the U.S. often look at the best potential outcomes and are willing to take risks, which helps create new companies and technologies.
  3. The U.S. has one of the largest and most dynamic financial systems in the world, making it easier for entrepreneurs to get funding. This strong market encourages growth and renewal in the economy.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 67 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The next market crash may have serious psychological effects on investors. Many people today haven't experienced a long-lasting downturn, which could be shocking for them.
  2. Current stock prices are very high compared to earnings, which might lead to a big correction. People are buying stocks without truly understanding their worth.
  3. The economy is facing challenges that could lead to stagflation. If that happens, it might hurt everyday people more than the wealthy, widening financial inequalities.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

We've Already Defaulted

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Government spending is increasing rapidly, and there's a constant cycle of debt without real change. Politicians often promise to cut deficits but end up spending more.
  2. People are finally understanding inflation as they feel its impact at grocery stores. This awareness is prompting more conversations about money and economic policies.
  3. The bond market is crucial to watch for signs of financial health. It's important to pay attention to its trends instead of just focusing on stocks.

Walk Your Talk

do clouds feel vertigo? • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Navigating emotions in finance is tough. Just like a story, the market has ups and downs, often driven by fear and greed.
  2. Understanding market patterns can help you make better choices. Key events, like earnings reports, can change how stocks perform quickly.
  3. It's smart to think about who benefits from market movements. Often, the loudest voices can mislead you, so keep a clear perspective.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

Performative Failure

Investing 101 • 69 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Performative failure, where people act as if they are failing for show, can prevent real learning and growth. It's better to genuinely take risks and embrace true failure.
  2. Shame often stops people from trying because they confuse their self-worth with their success or failure. It’s important to separate who you are from what you achieve.
  3. Choosing the right challenges to pursue is key. Aiming for meaningful goals makes any failures valuable and worthwhile, as they contribute to growth and character.

Top questions ahead of Eagle Alpha's Unbound New York Conference

The Data Score • 39 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💼 Business Investment Strategies
  1. Data monetization involves creating revenue streams by refining and selling accumulated data.
  2. Large Language Models (LLMs) are advanced AI models trained on vast amounts of text data for generating human-like responses in various applications.
  3. Alpha generation in finance refers to outperforming the market or generating excess returns in an investment strategy.

NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The apartment market conditions are getting tighter, which means it's becoming more competitive to find available units.
  2. There is slightly more activity in buying and selling apartments, signaling some optimism despite overall uncertainty in the economy.
  3. While borrowing money for apartments is improving, getting equity financing is still a bit harder than it was before.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 10th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Strategies
  1. The stock market went up after Trump's election, as investors seem unsure if he will actually change global trade and deport many people.
  2. This week is important for tech earnings, with companies like Spotify and Disney sharing their financial results.
  3. Keep an eye on economic events like consumer confidence and inflation rates in different countries throughout the week.