The hottest Stocks Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Markets Stocks Indicators
  1. Money supply growth is crucial for supporting the stock market as it indicates the tightness or looseness of current monetary conditions, regardless of interest rates set by the Fed.
  2. Monitoring money supply trends can provide insight into the direction of the economy and stock market - a rise in money supply can have inflationary effects.
  3. Historical trends show that fluctuations in money supply can influence stock market movements, with drops often preceding market dips.

Finding The Next Warren Buffett-Style Investment: Chris DeMuth

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 12 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Hedge Funds Value investing Financial advice
  1. Chris DeMuth Jr. aims to find hidden value in investments rather than seeking stock picking grandeur like Warren Buffett.
  2. Warren Buffett's successful investments with Berkshire Hathaway have resulted in substantial gains over the years, dwarfing many other financial endeavors.
  3. Investors have benefitted immensely by sticking with Warren Buffett over the long term, showcasing the power of patience and consistent investment strategies.

How Elon's Plans for Twitter affect your wallet[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 16 Apr 22
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Entrepreneurship
  1. Understanding the difference between public and private companies is essential, as it affects stock markets and individual salaries.
  2. Equity-based compensation can be a risky but rewarding strategy for startups and employees.
  3. Elon Musk's plan to buy Twitter and take it private highlights the importance of knowing how equity and stock markets work.
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Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 1

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Bonds Risk Diversification
  1. The book 'Stocks for the Long Run' by Jeremy Siegel may present an overly positive view of equities as a fail-proof long-term investment. It's crucial to understand that investing in stocks comes with risks and uncertainties, even over longer periods.
  2. Historical data corrected by Professor McQuarrie reveals the importance of considering a wider range of factors like failures, defaults, and market conditions when evaluating equity investments' returns.
  3. While equities can be a rewarding long-term investment, they are not risk-free. International diversification is crucial to balance potential negative outcomes and ensure successful equity investing in the long run.

Clouded Judgement 5.19.23

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💼 Business Software Stocks Earnings Valuation Metrics
  1. Cloud software companies saw a boost in stock prices, but operating performance is not as positive.
  2. Companies added less new ARR in Q1 '23 compared to the previous year, indicating a headwind in new bookings.
  3. Median revenue growth rate declined in Q1 '23, along with net retention rates, CAC payback periods, but FCF margins showed improvement.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 2

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Bonds Portfolio Diversification
  1. Stocks may not always outperform bonds over long periods - research shows that stocks in the US did not consistently outperform bonds, except for specific time frames
  2. Data suggests that even over the longest investment horizons, there is a significant chance that bonds will outperform stocks
  3. Considering global trends, many countries show significant underperformance of stocks compared to bonds over 20 and 50 years, highlighting the importance of diversification

Highly leveraged growth stocks: compounding mistakes

Metacritic Capital • 9 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis Financial Modeling Growth Strategies
  1. Companies reporting pre-revenue numbers are often valued higher in the market.
  2. Market often extrapolates current growth to predict long-term growth, leading to significant movements in growth stocks.
  3. Assumptions and dependencies in companies' growth models can cause sharp price swings, even without financial leverage.

Why quality stocks perform so well

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis Risk Behavioral Finance
  1. Companies with higher profitability, known as 'quality stocks,' tend to outperform less profitable companies in the market.
  2. Highly profitable companies do not necessarily come with higher risks, as they have lower probability of share price crashes and tend to perform better in negative market conditions.
  3. The outperformance of highly profitable companies seems to be driven by systematic market mispricing rather than compensation for higher risks, making it a potentially persistent investment strategy.

Retail investors and earnings surprises

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Retail Market Efficiency Stocks
  1. Retail investors often trade based on noise rather than fundamental information, impacting market efficiency.
  2. Retail investors tend to buy stocks with low price momentum and large earnings surprises, leading to market mispricing.
  3. Post earnings announcement drift is influenced by retail investors and can be seen in stocks with low institutional ownership.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 3

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Bonds Portfolios Asset Classes
  1. Stocks are riskier in the long term than many investors believe, with fluctuating equity risk premiums influenced by economic drivers like interest rates and growth.
  2. Using longer historical data to predict equity risk premiums may not work, investors need to analyze the historical track record based on the current market regime.
  3. The correlation between stocks and bonds has varied over time, influenced by factors like inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, impacting the diversification benefits of stock/bond portfolios.

Persistence > performance

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Momentum Returns Strategies
  1. Persistence of performance is more important than pure price momentum in predicting future returns.
  2. The Directional High Minus Low (D-HML) strategy focuses on the persistence of positive returns to generate excess returns of around 1% per month.
  3. D-HML strategy offers more downside protection during extreme drawdowns compared to traditional momentum strategies.

New Model Portfolio: "Decent Dividends"

Theory A : Visualize Value Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Dividends Stocks Portfolio Analysis
  1. New model portfolio 'Decent Dividends' aims to find companies with healthy cash flow and commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders.
  2. The portfolio includes stocks like ABBV, VZ, and EOG that show potential for dividend yield and price appreciation.
  3. Using Theory A allows investors to screen and analyze stocks based on various financial factors for long-term investment decisions.

Investing Update: Bull Market or Bear Rally?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Markets Stocks Portfolios
  1. Major U.S. stock indices experienced a recent downturn after a strong upward trend earlier in the year.
  2. Technology stocks are showing a strong performance in 2023, potentially leading to profit-taking by investors.
  3. Different experts have conflicting views on the market's direction, with some predicting continued bear market while others are bullish on a new bull market.

Vol. 3, No. 22 — The Everything Portfolio

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Diversification Stocks Bonds
  1. The Everything Portfolio recommends diversifying across stocks, bonds, and real estate to boost risk-adjusted returns.
  2. Real estate has historically outperformed stocks and bonds in terms of risk-adjusted returns over the past 130 years.
  3. Including real estate in an investment portfolio can help reduce risk and improve returns due to its unique performance characteristics.

Vol. 4, No. 3 — No headroom for headsets

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Markets Economics Business
  1. Apple released a new virtual reality headset called Vision Pro, but it may not be a mainstream consumer success due to its design and lack of personal interaction like smartphones.
  2. Investors are overly hyped about Apple's new device, which may not make it a good investment as the shares are considered expensive.
  3. Virtual and augmented reality headsets like the Vision Pro may have commercial and professional uses, such as in architecture and real estate, but may not be ideal for personal daily use.

Vol. 4, No. 2 — Winging it

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Economics Investment Productivity
  1. Boeing's stock price is in a nosedive, and investors should be cautious about buying
  2. The British economy is struggling with low productivity due to credit contraction, lack of capital investment, and rising house prices
  3. Forecasts for Boeing stock's value are too optimistic, with more downside risk than upside potential

Part 2: Deep dive writeup of Nubank ($NU)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Earnings Reports Company analysis Financial Performance
  1. NU is a company with an IPO date of December 9, 2021, at $9.00 per share.
  2. NU has a market cap of $23.1 billion with a 52-week high of $8.47 and a 52-week low of $3.26.
  3. NU has positive net cash/debt of +$3.42 billion and an average analyst price target of $7.20, which is 45.7% higher than the current stock price.

Model Portfolio: Too Big to Fail

Theory A : Visualize Value Investing • 0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Analysis Portfolio Management Financial advice
  1. The FIRE movement recommends dollar cost averaging into low cost index funds like SPY for potential returns of 7-8% annually.
  2. The 'Too Big to Fail' portfolio selects high-quality subset of SP500 companies based on certain criteria for potential outperformance.
  3. Key companies like Adobe, Johnson & Johnson, and Intuit are part of the selected portfolio due to strong financial performance and future growth expectations.

The Case for Buying WTI Crude Oil Futures & Selling Crude Oil ETFs (USO) Cash Covered Puts

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Commodities Markets Trading
  1. The price of WTI Crude oil & USO tends to fluctuate throughout the year, being higher at year-end and more volatile in the first quarter.
  2. Global economic state, geopolitical events, and technological advancements impact oil demand and prices.
  3. Considering patterns in oil trading, historical data, and global economic growth can guide investment decisions in oil futures.

Macro bears should do DCFs: a bottoms-up approach to bearish S&P 500 calls

Metacritic Capital • 0 implied HN points • 24 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Economics Analysis Markets
  1. Macro bears should consider doing discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis for individual companies.
  2. Ground-level realities of individual companies may not always align with overarching macro predictions.
  3. Understanding the financial intricacies and value of individual companies is crucial for accurate market analysis.

Part 1: Deep dive writeup on Albemarle ($ALB)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Trading Earnings Valuation
  1. Albemarle (ALB) is a company expected to show strong revenue and earnings growth due to the increasing demand for lithium from the EV industry.
  2. ALB is considered undervalued, trading at a low multiple of earnings despite the positive growth projections.
  3. Analysts are cautious about ALB's future performance, but if EV adoption remains strong, the stock could outperform.