The hottest Stocks Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. The author is identifying stocks to watch for 2025 based on market trends. This can help investors focus on specific opportunities in the stock market.
  2. In the past year, the stocks chosen performed well but not as well as the overall market, particularly the biggest tech companies.
  3. This post offers insights for paid subscribers, suggesting it provides detailed analysis and guidance for making investment decisions.

Cathie Wood's $14.3 Billion Implosion

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 50 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Cathie Wood's ARK funds lost an estimated $14.3 billion in shareholder value over a 10-year period.
  2. Wood underperformed her benchmark, Nasdaq QQQ, by about 95% in the last 3 years.
  3. Despite poor performance, Wood remains in the spotlight as a financial media celebrity.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.
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Clouded Judgement 1.5.24

Clouded Judgement • 24 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Software stocks have seen a drop in the start of the year due to rising interest rates.
  2. Valuation of SaaS businesses is generally done based on revenue multiples for the next 12 months.
  3. The growth rate of a company plays a significant role in determining its valuation multiple.

Startup stock options: Liquidity options

Brick by Brick • 18 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Common shares vs Preferred shares: Know the differences. Common shareholders may face challenges like Right of First Refusal (ROFR) when transacting with their shares.
  2. Liquidity avenues for startup common shares include IPOs (least likely), M&A, tender offers, private share sales, and equity financing. Each option comes with its own set of complexities and approvals.
  3. Preferred shareholder rights like Liquidation Preference and Participation Right can significantly impact common shareholders during exits, potentially wiping out their earnings completely. Understanding these rights is crucial in startup shareholder dynamics.

Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Money supply growth is crucial for supporting the stock market as it indicates the tightness or looseness of current monetary conditions, regardless of interest rates set by the Fed.
  2. Monitoring money supply trends can provide insight into the direction of the economy and stock market - a rise in money supply can have inflationary effects.
  3. Historical trends show that fluctuations in money supply can influence stock market movements, with drops often preceding market dips.

[P] FNMA/FMCC: Charitable Stock Tip

Nongaap Investing • 5 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Investing can sometimes benefit charity, but it's important to know where your money is really going.
  2. A stock tip may seem charitable, but it could just be helping someone else's profits instead.
  3. Investors need to be careful and do their research before following tips from others.

Finding The Next Warren Buffett-Style Investment: Chris DeMuth

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 12 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Chris DeMuth Jr. aims to find hidden value in investments rather than seeking stock picking grandeur like Warren Buffett.
  2. Warren Buffett's successful investments with Berkshire Hathaway have resulted in substantial gains over the years, dwarfing many other financial endeavors.
  3. Investors have benefitted immensely by sticking with Warren Buffett over the long term, showcasing the power of patience and consistent investment strategies.

Clouded Judgement 5.19.23

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💼 Business Stocks
  1. Cloud software companies saw a boost in stock prices, but operating performance is not as positive.
  2. Companies added less new ARR in Q1 '23 compared to the previous year, indicating a headwind in new bookings.
  3. Median revenue growth rate declined in Q1 '23, along with net retention rates, CAC payback periods, but FCF margins showed improvement.

[P] SPHR: Sphere-Priced Incentives

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Sphere-Priced Incentives are a new way to evaluate investments. They help in making decisions based on a specific pricing strategy.
  2. Understanding the risks can help in deciding whether to invest or not. We often find ourselves in tough situations when choosing these options.
  3. Paid subscriptions provide deeper insights into investing strategies. It's a good idea for those serious about improving their investment knowledge.

[P] EVLV: Scanning for Upside

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. A new CEO is joining the company and there's hope for a positive change in the future.
  2. The company has faced difficulties, but there might be opportunities for growth ahead.
  3. Investors are being encouraged to keep an eye on potential upsides as changes take place.

Highly leveraged growth stocks: compounding mistakes

Metacritic Capital • 9 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Companies reporting pre-revenue numbers are often valued higher in the market.
  2. Market often extrapolates current growth to predict long-term growth, leading to significant movements in growth stocks.
  3. Assumptions and dependencies in companies' growth models can cause sharp price swings, even without financial leverage.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 1

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. The book 'Stocks for the Long Run' by Jeremy Siegel may present an overly positive view of equities as a fail-proof long-term investment. It's crucial to understand that investing in stocks comes with risks and uncertainties, even over longer periods.
  2. Historical data corrected by Professor McQuarrie reveals the importance of considering a wider range of factors like failures, defaults, and market conditions when evaluating equity investments' returns.
  3. While equities can be a rewarding long-term investment, they are not risk-free. International diversification is crucial to balance potential negative outcomes and ensure successful equity investing in the long run.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 2

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Stocks may not always outperform bonds over long periods - research shows that stocks in the US did not consistently outperform bonds, except for specific time frames
  2. Data suggests that even over the longest investment horizons, there is a significant chance that bonds will outperform stocks
  3. Considering global trends, many countries show significant underperformance of stocks compared to bonds over 20 and 50 years, highlighting the importance of diversification

European stocks offer earnings stability in surprising places

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. European stocks can provide surprisingly stable earnings even in tough times. It's good to look for companies that have shown consistent growth before.
  2. In this uncertain economic climate, having a strategy can help investors feel more secure. Focusing on steady performers might be a smart approach.
  3. Many investors are looking for ways to adapt and manage risks this year. Finding reliable stocks in Europe could be part of the answer.

Why quality stocks perform so well

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Companies with higher profitability, known as 'quality stocks,' tend to outperform less profitable companies in the market.
  2. Highly profitable companies do not necessarily come with higher risks, as they have lower probability of share price crashes and tend to perform better in negative market conditions.
  3. The outperformance of highly profitable companies seems to be driven by systematic market mispricing rather than compensation for higher risks, making it a potentially persistent investment strategy.

Retail investors and earnings surprises

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Retail investors often trade based on noise rather than fundamental information, impacting market efficiency.
  2. Retail investors tend to buy stocks with low price momentum and large earnings surprises, leading to market mispricing.
  3. Post earnings announcement drift is influenced by retail investors and can be seen in stocks with low institutional ownership.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 3

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Stocks are riskier in the long term than many investors believe, with fluctuating equity risk premiums influenced by economic drivers like interest rates and growth.
  2. Using longer historical data to predict equity risk premiums may not work, investors need to analyze the historical track record based on the current market regime.
  3. The correlation between stocks and bonds has varied over time, influenced by factors like inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, impacting the diversification benefits of stock/bond portfolios.

New Model Portfolio: "Decent Dividends"

Theory A : Visualize Value Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. New model portfolio 'Decent Dividends' aims to find companies with healthy cash flow and commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders.
  2. The portfolio includes stocks like ABBV, VZ, and EOG that show potential for dividend yield and price appreciation.
  3. Using Theory A allows investors to screen and analyze stocks based on various financial factors for long-term investment decisions.

Persistence > performance

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Persistence of performance is more important than pure price momentum in predicting future returns.
  2. The Directional High Minus Low (D-HML) strategy focuses on the persistence of positive returns to generate excess returns of around 1% per month.
  3. D-HML strategy offers more downside protection during extreme drawdowns compared to traditional momentum strategies.

Part 1: Deep dive writeup on Albemarle ($ALB)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Albemarle (ALB) is a company expected to show strong revenue and earnings growth due to the increasing demand for lithium from the EV industry.
  2. ALB is considered undervalued, trading at a low multiple of earnings despite the positive growth projections.
  3. Analysts are cautious about ALB's future performance, but if EV adoption remains strong, the stock could outperform.

Model Portfolio: Too Big to Fail

Theory A : Visualize Value Investing • 0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. The FIRE movement recommends dollar cost averaging into low cost index funds like SPY for potential returns of 7-8% annually.
  2. The 'Too Big to Fail' portfolio selects high-quality subset of SP500 companies based on certain criteria for potential outperformance.
  3. Key companies like Adobe, Johnson & Johnson, and Intuit are part of the selected portfolio due to strong financial performance and future growth expectations.

Investing Update: Panic Creates Opportunity

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. Investors are currently overweight bonds, banks, and cash, while underweight tech and equities.
  2. The high number of new 52-week lows in security instruments may indicate a bear market bottom is near.
  3. People are less interested in buying stocks, with allocations to equities at their lowest in years.

Part 2: Deep dive writeup on Tidewater ($TDW)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. The stock Tidewater (TDW) has a market cap of $2.2 billion and 52-week high of $51.88.
  2. The author runs a stocktwits room and shares details of their investment and trading portfolios.
  3. The post provides in-depth analysis of Tidewater including information on competitive advantages, management, and financials.

Part 2: Deep dive writeup of Nubank ($NU)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. NU is a company with an IPO date of December 9, 2021, at $9.00 per share.
  2. NU has a market cap of $23.1 billion with a 52-week high of $8.47 and a 52-week low of $3.26.
  3. NU has positive net cash/debt of +$3.42 billion and an average analyst price target of $7.20, which is 45.7% higher than the current stock price.

The Case for Buying WTI Crude Oil Futures & Selling Crude Oil ETFs (USO) Cash Covered Puts

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
💰 Finance Stocks
  1. The price of WTI Crude oil & USO tends to fluctuate throughout the year, being higher at year-end and more volatile in the first quarter.
  2. Global economic state, geopolitical events, and technological advancements impact oil demand and prices.
  3. Considering patterns in oil trading, historical data, and global economic growth can guide investment decisions in oil futures.