The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

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Your guide to watching the US election

Comment is Freed • 63 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Political Analysis
  1. Polls are hard to trust this election because they might be missing certain groups of voters. Some people who usually don’t vote are expected to show up but are less likely to answer polls.
  2. Different states have different rules for counting votes, which can make it tricky to know the results quickly. Some states can count early votes before polls close, while others cannot.
  3. US exit polls are often not very helpful for predicting results. Unlike the UK, they don’t provide clear insight into voting intentions and motivations.

December 14, 2024

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis History Current Events Government Social Commentary
  1. Spending time with family and friends is valuable and can make for a lovely day. It's important to prioritize connections with loved ones.
  2. Winter sunrises can be incredibly beautiful and are worth appreciating. Nature has a way of providing stunning views that can lift spirits.
  3. An early bedtime can be refreshing and a good way to end a nice day. Taking care of yourself is important for wellbeing.
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Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 28.01.2025

steigan.no • 7 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political Analysis National Security Public Opinion
  1. Rwanda is expanding into the Kivu provinces of the DRC, with support from Western countries. This has led to significant control over mineral resources in the area.
  2. The German economy is struggling due to reduced growth and increasing global competition, especially from Chinese car manufacturers. Many companies are laying off workers and there seems to be no clear plan for recovery.
  3. The partnership between Russia and Iran is strengthening as both seek to bypass Western sanctions. This agreement may create economic ties that could affect global trade and politics.

A Postmortem, of sorts

Unpopular Front • 33 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Democratic Party Political Commentary Current affairs
  1. The author discusses problems faced by the Democratic Party. They believe there are significant issues that need to be addressed for future success.
  2. The title of the piece was intended to be different but was changed, showing that writers often have little control over how their work is presented.
  3. The author's thoughts on the situation are ongoing and they plan to share more insights in the future.

Election Update #9: No, Trump is Not Leading Now

Phillips’s Newsletter • 67 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Polls can make people feel either hopeful or scared. Some people focus on good polls, while others worry about bad ones.
  2. Currently, there isn't much change happening in the election race. Even events that seemed impactful didn't really alter the polling results significantly.
  3. It's important to avoid getting too excited or too worried about polls. Small shifts don't always mean big changes in the election outcome.

The Hollow Regret of Biden Coverage

Marginally Compelling • 14 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Critique Public Opinion Elections Political Leadership
  1. There's growing concern about President Biden's mental and physical health, especially after some recent news articles highlighted these issues.
  2. Many people have suspected for a while that Biden isn't fully in charge, and this realization is now being acknowledged more openly.
  3. The media faced pressure not to question Biden's condition, which affected their coverage and how they reported on him.

The Shape of Things To Come

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 100 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Behavior Political Analysis Economic Policy
  1. Voters feel that the Democratic Party no longer represents the working class, leading to a sense of distrust. Many are struggling economically and expect more from their leaders.
  2. Democratic leaders deny that they have abandoned workers and continue to focus on fundraising, which creates wealth for politicians and affects their ability to serve the public.
  3. Both political parties are stuck in a cycle of shifting populist candidates without making real changes to help people. This pattern could continue unless a new party emerges that truly addresses the needs of everyday citizens.

Notes from a quiet week in the House

Matt’s Five Points • 239 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Elections Political parties Government Structure Political Analysis
  1. The current Speaker pro tempore, McHenry, has very limited powers, mainly just to oversee the election of a new Speaker. This has been accepted by both political parties as a way to avoid major conflicts until after the election.
  2. Even though things appear quiet in the House, it can still act without a Speaker. The House's authority allows it to pass legislation, meaning it's not truly inactive; it's just choosing not to move forward right now.
  3. The upcoming Speakership election could be quite contentious, depending on how much unity the Republican party can maintain. The party's internal discussions will greatly affect how the election plays out on the House floor.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 14.01.2025

steigan.no • 7 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Policy Media Critique International relations
  1. Fact-checkers and platforms may not always be neutral. Sometimes they're accused of having biases or acting like censorship.
  2. The ability to control 'truth' through information or algorithms can shape public opinion in unseen ways, making it harder to discern what's accurate.
  3. People can easily forget past misinformation when reading new articles, leading to a cycle of misplaced trust in those sources.

🥂🍾 🥳 Welcome, 2025! 🎉

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 7 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Global Affairs Media Commentary Subscription services Cultural Insights
  1. Newsrooms are often short-staffed during the holidays, so articles are written in advance, leading to outdated content. Don't be surprised if today's news feels old.
  2. A subscription service is offering 30% off for new members, promoting access to global news and various educational resources. It's a chance to dive deeper into current events and discussions.
  3. The service includes exclusive podcasts, videos, and live chats where subscribers can engage with interesting topics and people, creating a community around knowledge and learning.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 17.01.2025

steigan.no • 6 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Domestic Policy Foreign Policy Political Analysis Elections Government Accountability
  1. Yemen continues to attack US warships in the Red Sea, showing ongoing military tensions in the region.
  2. Trust in government institutions is declining in Norway, reflecting a broader concern about the state of democracy.
  3. Many hydrogen projects are struggling due to lower demand, highlighting challenges in the transition to renewable energy.

Chaos reigns across Great Britain | article

Tumbleweed Words • 7 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Accountability Social Issues Public Policy Civic engagement
  1. Many people are upset about the lack of accountability in the UK government regarding serious issues, especially involving children. It's important for society to recognize these problems and demand change.
  2. There is a feeling that the current leadership in Britain operates like a criminal group, punishing those who speak out against injustices. This environment can lead to fear and silence among citizens.
  3. Unity and public outcry are crucial for avoiding further decline in society. Citizens need to stand together and call for a new government to bring about real change.

'Who Is a Democrat?' Revisited

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 45 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Democratic Party Electoral Politics Political theory
  1. Many people believe they are part of the Democratic Party, but actual membership is very limited. Only a small group has real power, while most voters have little influence.
  2. The Democratic Party has a complex structure, with layers of power that include voters, consultants, and those in authority. This affects how decisions are made.
  3. Even those on the left feel included in the Democratic Party's support structure, but they can't guide or influence its direction effectively. This creates a disconnect between grassroots supporters and party leaders.

Xi at Trump's inauguration? China likely still weighing options

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Political Analysis Bilateral Relations
  1. Trump invited Xi to his upcoming inauguration, marking a unique diplomatic gesture. It's not common for a U.S. president to invite a foreign leader to their inauguration.
  2. China is considering whether or not to attend. They might choose to send a representative instead of Xi himself to avoid potential risks and uncertainties.
  3. If China decides to accept the invitation, it could strengthen their relationship with the U.S. while also showing commitment to peaceful cooperation between the countries.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 05.01.2025

steigan.no • 8 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections Surveillance Diplomacy Political Analysis
  1. Modern surveillance technology is getting very sophisticated, and it's not just governments but also private companies that misuse these tools. People should be aware of how their data can be monitored.
  2. Amid rising tensions, there's talk about military action against Iran's nuclear program. It's crucial to understand the implications of such actions and their potential fallout.
  3. Israel is increasing its global influence funding significantly, especially in response to growing international criticism. This signals a push to improve its image during ongoing conflicts.

After the Ball Is Over...

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 80 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Governance Parties Public Policy
  1. If Kamala Harris wins, she may struggle to pass her agenda due to a divided Congress, leading to a challenging presidency.
  2. A Trump victory could intensify political conflict, but he may not be able to maintain dictatorial power without military and judicial support.
  3. The political landscape could shift significantly depending on who wins, with growing divisions and potential generational power shifts in future elections.

Goodbye to All That?

Daniel Pinchbeck’s Newsletter • 22 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting Rights Political Discourse Democracy
  1. Many people are feeling anxious and hopeful about the upcoming elections. Large numbers of women are voting, which could lead to unexpected results that may help protect democracy.
  2. The U.S. faces serious issues related to wealth inequality and a lack of collective meaning, leading many to feel betrayed by the system. This unrest can drive voters to extreme choices, affecting the future.
  3. There is a growing concern over political violence and the erosion of civil discourse in America. The dangerous rhetoric around elections raises fears about the stability of the political landscape and the potential for unrest.

November 9, 2024

Letters from an American • 21 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Legislation Political Analysis Civic engagement
  1. Finding peace in quiet moments is important during chaotic times. It's nice to take a break and reflect on calmness.
  2. Sleep is essential, especially after busy or stressful days. Rest can help recharge for whatever comes next.
  3. Art can provide a different perspective and comfort. A beautiful photograph can be a reminder of serene moments amidst daily chaos.

Assad is finished

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 11 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East Conflict Regime Change International relations Political Analysis
  1. It might not now or in coming mom or by now, not if it criminy worn on firing dow how if it might hight if it rock if it might on going on by go to go in or by go or go in or of go of doom or of yow or not, not on go, not if it might go, or might how on down for on cry for going not go now, go or of go to go to go not or by in to not or by go, yow, to going to rock on to go on or by to know, if
  2. Right now, it kind of thriving, with big hitting going on by now, going on might to worn by high on go or, do go or yow, how might high or do not, do  or go on going or of going on by, on rock or might go on or in with now, how to do, or to on, on now, or how to go down in now
  3. Right now, kind of to now, yow, to to rock on, to  comin' in to off it going on on or by rock on or not to in on to by to it now, to of not, on going to from going to go, or might go, to of going on to by know, high on to doin' or might on down, might to it

The Nancy Nothingburger

Diane Francis • 639 implied HN points • 08 Aug 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Public Opinion Political Analysis Geopolitics National Security
  1. Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan angered China and made them show military force, but it also reminded other Asian countries to be more prepared. She spent only 19 hours there, which some see as a token gesture.
  2. China's response included military drills and cancelling talks with the U.S., but there were no serious threats. The visit didn’t lead to a major conflict, highlighting that China is more focused on its own internal issues.
  3. Pelosi's trip was seen as a win politically in the U.S., showing support for Taiwan. Despite China’s strong rhetoric, many analysts agree that the situation isn’t as dire as it could have been.

Dreams (or Nightmares) of Civil War

theconnector • 176 implied HN points • 18 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political Evolution
  1. The book 'The Undertow' by Jeff Sharlet explores post-January 6th America and its descent towards civil war.
  2. Jeff Sharlet delves deep into the current state of American politics, including the merging of evangelicalism with QAnon and the rise of a unique form of American fascism.
  3. The article highlights the challenges of online fundraising in politics and the investigation into potential fundraising scams by former president Donald Trump.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 04.01.2025

steigan.no • 7 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Domestic Policy Foreign affairs Political Analysis Election Issues Government Accountability
  1. Norsk bistand is seen as harmful and ineffective, with calls for it to end as it allegedly supports corrupt organizations and elites worldwide.
  2. Apple's recent lawsuit settlement of $95 million reveals concerns over privacy, as users believe their private conversations were recorded without consent through Siri.
  3. Syria's education system is undergoing significant changes, with new reforms aimed at aligning the curriculum with an Islamic perspective, erasing parts of its secular history.

The Psywar Glossary

Who is Robert Malone • 11 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Manipulation Government Control
  1. PsyWar refers to the use of psychological operations by governments to influence people's beliefs and behaviors, even against their own citizens. It's important to recognize these tactics to understand how information can be manipulated.
  2. Understanding and identifying terms related to psychological operations, like propaganda and algorithms, can help individuals navigate the information they encounter daily. This recognition is key to making informed decisions.
  3. Fifth-generation warfare involves non-kinetic tactics, including social media manipulation and misinformation. It's a new kind of conflict that emphasizes controlling narratives rather than traditional military strategies.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 12.01.2025

steigan.no • 5 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis International relations Military Affairs Public Policy Media Criticism
  1. Jemen forces attacked the USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea using missiles and drones, claiming it prevented an American attack on Jemen. The US has not confirmed the incident.
  2. The Arctic is becoming a key area for global conflict over resources, particularly as countries like the US, Russia, and China vie for control. This has historical roots, like past attempts by the US to buy Greenland for strategic purposes.
  3. Norway is at risk of becoming a mere supplier of resources to the EU, with plans to increase energy exports without considering local needs or effects on the environment.

There’s a Simple but Subtle Point in the Latest Analysis of Left-Wing Dysfunction

I Might Be Wrong • 15 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Cultural Shifts Party Dynamics Progressive politics
  1. The left is becoming more extreme and out of touch with mainstream America. Many people feel this shift but now there is data to support it.
  2. Democrats should focus on the majority of voters and not just the loud minority who want more radical changes.
  3. Groups that threaten not to vote for Democrats unless they move further left are bluffing. Most voters won't really abandon them, especially for someone like Trump.

Why Russia Must Lose

Diane Francis • 619 implied HN points • 09 Jun 22
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict International relations Military Strategy Political Analysis
  1. Ukraine's passion for survival gives them strength against Russia's military power. They will do anything to protect their country after facing attacks.
  2. Support from allies, like the U.S. and NATO, helps Ukraine resist Russian advances. Providing weapons and aid makes a difference in the fight.
  3. If Russia gains any territory in Ukraine, it will strengthen Putin's hold on power and be a threat to Europe. Russia must lose the war for global stability.

Tang Shiping predicts Trump "highly likely" to win - probability more than 60%

Pekingnology • 56 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Forecasting Political Analysis Modeling Public Opinion
  1. A professor predicts that Donald Trump has a greater than 60% chance of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This prediction is based on computer simulations rather than traditional polling.
  2. The simulations suggest Trump will likely win key states like Michigan, Ohio, and Florida, while Harris is expected to win states like Georgia and Arizona.
  3. The forecasting method used is known as Agent-Based Modeling, which combines real data about voters and economic conditions to make predictions rather than relying on expert opinions.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 15.12.2024

steigan.no • 9 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Government Policy International relations Social Issues
  1. There are many empty houses in Norway that could become homes for people. Using these buildings can help people find affordable places to live, especially in rural areas.
  2. High electricity prices in Norway are leading to financial struggles for both businesses and individuals. There is a call for the government to find better solutions instead of just providing temporary support.
  3. Georgia is becoming a focal point in international politics, with the U.S. using it as a strategy to weaken Russia. This situation reflects a greater trend of nations being used in geopolitical conflicts.

If Labour is elected, the sky probably won’t fall in

The Path Not Taken • 132 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Political Analysis Cultural impact Government Policy Public Opinion
  1. The upcoming UK Labour party's victory might not bring a radical cultural revolution, as some fear.
  2. Despite concerns about radical progressive ideas influencing Labour, they appear to be leading in the polls due to adopting more moderate positions.
  3. Government policies play a role in shaping culture, but long incumbencies can have negative effects on democracy and public services.

RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

Resistance Is Futile

Gideon's Substack • 14 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Legislation Political strategy Political Analysis
  1. Trump is likely to appoint people who align with his views, even if they lack traditional qualifications. This means that nominations can be based more on loyalty than expertise.
  2. The Senate has the power to reject some of Trump's nominees, but this could lead to similar replacements being appointed. It all depends on whether senators are willing to take a stand.
  3. Now is a time for collaboration in politics, as resisting Trump's approach may not lead to significant change. The dynamics will shift based on public opinion and the political landscape.

About This Week...

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 50 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. Many young voters switched sides this election, with a noticeable drop in support for the Democratic candidate. This is a big change from previous trends where younger voters strongly favored Democrats.
  2. Income levels played a key role in voting patterns, with lower income groups leaning more towards Republicans this time. It's a shift from earlier elections, where they typically supported Democrats.
  3. Voters were motivated by their views on the economy, with many feeling worse off than before. This seem to have led more people to vote for Trump, focusing on economic issues.

An Update on Knowns and Unknowns about the 2024 Presidential Election

Think Future • 59 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Presidential candidates
  1. The outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election is highly influenced by who wins the presidency and how political parties handle the aftermath.
  2. Current legal battles faced by Trump, such as his court cases and potential convictions, may impact his chances at winning the election.
  3. The next few weeks will bring significant developments in Trump's legal situations, potentially affecting the election and the future of American democracy.

Forecasting the 2024 Presidential Election from the Sky Down

Think Future • 119 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election forecasting Political Analysis Presidential candidates
  1. Forecasting the 2024 Presidential Election involves considering a range of possibilities beyond a simple Trump versus Biden rematch.
  2. Forecasts often rely on data and trends, but sometimes accurate forecasting requires looking beyond the present reality and positing potential scenarios.
  3. The 2024 election could play out in multiple ways, such as Trump being too damaged to win, Trump not running as the GOP nominee, or new candidates fielded by both parties, making it a complex and unpredictable political landscape.

Let the sunshine in

City Hall Watcher • 117 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
đź“° News Local news City Council Public Services Political Analysis
  1. The Ontario Sunshine List data can provide interesting insights on city salaries and job title trends.
  2. Firefighters saw significant salary increases over the past four years, reflecting a notable trend within the data analyzed.
  3. During the Toronto Council meeting preview, it was highlighted that the city faces a major financial crisis and discussed various agenda items, including the upcoming mayoral election.

"Going Underground" on Syria

John’s Substack • 7 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East International relations Conflict Studies Political Analysis Geopolitics
  1. Syria is in a chaotic state, and understanding its situation is complex. The podcast discusses the past events and potential future of the country.
  2. The conversation focuses on the impact of the fall of Assad and what that means for the region. It's important to consider how this could change politics and stability.
  3. Experts are trying to analyze the broader implications of the Syrian conflict. This includes looking at how the situation affects neighboring countries and global politics.