The hottest Housing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

December 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Real Estate Investing Housing Market Trends
  1. Inflation numbers are delayed because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) isn't updated yet. So, we'll have to wait a bit longer for the latest inflation details.
  2. Homebuilders, like KB Homes, continue to report strong earnings despite high mortgage rates. It seems that mortgage rates don't impact homebuilders as much as expected.
  3. There's an ongoing pattern where people keep thinking mortgage rates will disrupt the housing market, but this hasn't really happened lately. It's like a financial mystery that keeps repeating.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Housing Economics Investing
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.

The powerlessness of Michaela Ali

The Mill • 766 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
📰 News Human Interest Health Housing Inequality Community
  1. Michaela Ali, a pregnant health worker, has been living in hotels due to her rat-infested flat for over a year.
  2. Despite complaints to the housing association, Riverside, Michaela has felt powerless and unmoored in trying to make her living situation habitable.
  3. The experience has left Michaela feeling hopeless and untrusting, highlighting the challenges faced by social housing tenants in getting their living conditions improved.

Housing Roundup #6

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1478 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
💰 Finance Housing
  1. The listings will continue until people can afford houses in places they want to live.
  2. Housing costs are rising, but homeownership rates have not drastically declined.
  3. Building more houses where people want to live is crucial for lowering housing costs and increasing supply.
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November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economics Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.

Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Migration Population Growth Housing
  1. The new Census estimates show that the U.S. population is growing much faster than before. This growth is mainly due to better counting of international migrants.
  2. Population growth from 2021 to 2024 is estimated to be over 3 million more than previous estimates. Most of this increase comes from net international migration.
  3. Revised population numbers can affect employment surveys, meaning we might see significant updates when the numbers are adjusted next year.

Do politicians need Legos to explain housing on social media?

The New Urban Order • 219 implied HN points • 25 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Social media Housing Crisis Policy
  1. Using creative and simple methods, like Legos, can effectively convey complex topics like housing supply and demand to a wider audience on social media.
  2. Politicians can make their housing messages more engaging by focusing on simple but impactful messages, avoiding getting lost in technical details.
  3. Creating approachable and visually appealing social media content can help elevate the dialogue around housing issues and engage a broader audience in the conversation.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Economy Real Estate Market Trends Construction
  1. Housing starts for December were 1.499 million, which is 15.8% higher than November but 4.4% lower than December 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts rose slightly compared to November, while multi-family starts saw a drop year-over-year.
  3. Total housing starts decreased by 2.6% in 2024 compared to 2023, with single-family homes seeing a slight increase while multi-family homes declined significantly.

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Economics Market Trends Housing
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

7 Charts Show the Housing Tipping Point Has Arrived

The New Urban Order • 199 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing Supply and Demand Real Estate Economics Urban Development
  1. There is a significant increase in multifamily housing supply, signaling a potential tipping point in the housing industry.
  2. Cities like Minneapolis that have increased housing supply are seeing a decrease in rent prices, showcasing the impact of supply and demand in the housing market.
  3. The increase in housing supply across the U.S. is leading to declines in rent prices in many major markets, demonstrating the effectiveness of increasing supply to address housing affordability.

Case Study: Template House

Supernuclear • 299 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🎭️ Culture Community Social justice Housing Rehabilitation
  1. Template House is an intentional community in San Francisco supporting individuals coming out of long-term incarceration.
  2. The community focuses on justice, care, and kinship while emphasizing shared values and deep connections.
  3. Template House aims to transition to a land trust for long-term preservation and is seeking financial support for this transition.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economy Real Estate Forecasting
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

Humanity's Housing Future: Five Families to One House With Four Empty Airbnbs In Between

Surviving Tomorrow • 393 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Economics Inequality Homelessness Policy
  1. When working people can't afford to stay alive, society is dead.
  2. House prices are rising due to economic corruptions like inflation, constricted supply, and investor demand.
  3. To fix the broken housing market, democratic inflation-free money, proper supply, and the end of parasitic investor demand are necessary.

I Learned Something From That Weird Ass Jacobin Article That Said Blackstone Owns 1/3 of All Houses

I Might Be Wrong • 12 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Communism Housing Media Public Opinion
  1. Jacobin magazine published a wildly incorrect statistic about Blackstone owning a large portion of U.S. houses, leading to a lot of criticism. It's important to check facts before sharing numbers, especially big claims.
  2. The actual ownership by Blackstone is much smaller than claimed, showing how misinformation can spread easily. Even big publications can make serious mistakes when they don't verify.
  3. Reading the article gave new insights into why some people might be drawn to communism, even if the statistics are wrong. Understanding different viewpoints helps us discuss these issues better.

Top Links 374 The new armaments boom, how to build places for people to live, Eswanti's ship register & Marx to Darwin

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Housing Evolution
  1. The post highlights topics like the new armaments industry, urban planning, and Eswatini's ship registry.
  2. The Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze offers valuable insights and content on various subjects.
  3. The post includes links to intriguing content, like a piece on Yozo Hamaguchi's art and a paid subscriber section.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Loans Real Estate Market Trends Regulations
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for 2025 is being raised to $806,500, which is about $40,000 more than last year. This means people can borrow more for buying homes without needing special approval.
  2. In high-cost areas, the loan limit can go up to $1,209,750 for one-unit properties. That's because home prices in those places are higher than average.
  3. The FHA also has its own loan limits ranging from $524,225 in low-cost areas to $1,209,750 in high-cost areas. These limits help make affordability better for those getting loans guaranteed by the FHA.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Statistics
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Local Economy Real Estate
  1. Local housing markets in October showed the first year-over-year sales gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for home sales.
  2. The analysis includes over 40 local markets, comparing current data to October 2019. This helps understand how the market has changed over time.
  3. Active listings, new listings, and closed sales are being tracked, giving a clearer picture of the housing market's performance.

Make Office Buildings Fun Again

The New Urban Order • 279 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Urban Development Social Trends Innovation
  1. Converting office buildings into co-living spaces can help address social challenges like loneliness and offer more housing options.
  2. Co-living is a shared living model that emphasizes intentional community through communal spaces and activities.
  3. Co-living has the potential to be a source of affordable housing, cater to different demographics like seniors and digital nomads, and could be aligned with co-working spaces for a more integrated urban living experience.

The Case For and Against California Forever

The New Urban Order • 139 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🎭️ Culture Urbanism Housing Tech Environment Politics
  1. California Forever aims to address California's housing crisis by offering a new city with up to 400,000 residents and 160,000 dwelling units.
  2. Critics argue that California Forever's development threatens natural resources, increases wildfire risk, and diverts attention and resources from existing infrastructure improvements.
  3. The project prompts debate on the balance between housing expansion and environmental impact, as well as the effectiveness of starting a new city versus revitalizing existing communities.

Against Agglomeration Economies

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics Cities Housing Urban Development
  1. Economists often overemphasize the productivity of cities as the reason for expensive housing, leading to misdiagnoses and biases.
  2. High income gains have been observed in cities that didn't experience significant growth in housing units, challenging the concept of agglomeration economies.
  3. Income disparities among cities have increased over time, with a significant impact from Closed Access displacement, showing the importance of considering factors beyond productivity in city assessments.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Delinquency Banking Housing
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.

Sunday West 46

Wrong Side of History • 299 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
🎭️ Culture Religion TV shows Housing Literature
  1. The author discusses the rise of new theists and the benefits of religion despite a decline in observance.
  2. Reflections on the TV show 'The Sopranos' and the author's fear of flying are shared.
  3. The newsletter also covers topics like London's housing crisis, diversity statements, conspiracy theories, sobriety culture, and societal changes in France.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Mortgage Rates Inventory
  1. Existing home sales went up for the first time in over two years, but they are still low overall. Many people signed contracts when mortgage rates were at their lowest in two years.
  2. Florida and Texas are seeing a big increase in house listings, which is affecting prices in those areas. Hurricane Milton had an impact on statistics in Florida.
  3. Each local market has different trends, and some data is compared to figures from 2019 to show changes over time.

Towards a Broader, Bolder HUD

The New Urban Order • 119 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Government Legislation Research
  1. HUD's current role is limited, focusing mainly on providing subsidies to low-income renters in big cities, missing out on addressing broader housing market issues.
  2. HUD could enhance its role by coordinating research, encouraging regional cooperation among housing authorities, and providing more guidance and support to local governments.
  3. HUD should prioritize assembling and disseminating real-time housing market data to improve housing policy, address the housing crisis, and provide better insights for decision-making.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Construction Economic Trends
  1. Minneapolis experienced a drop in rents in 2021 and 2022 but the correlation between housing construction and rent trends isn't conclusive. It's important to assess data carefully before drawing conclusions.
  2. Auckland, New Zealand, has visible rent decreases due to effective supply-side reforms, contrasting with Minneapolis where the impact of such reforms is less clear.
  3. The correlation between income, new home construction, and rent inflation post-Great Recession reveals unusual patterns, possibly influenced by mortgage suppression policies, highlighting the need for comprehensive data analysis.

Why Housing Vouchers Need a YIMBY Movement

The New Urban Order • 139 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Government Policy Advocacy Economics
  1. YIMBY movement has had significant successes in housing reforms, but the impact on housing supply and affordability is uncertain.
  2. While YIMBYism appeals to various political ideologies, it may not address the need for subsidized housing for the growing number of Americans in poverty.
  3. Advocating for the expansion of project-based vouchers, which offer federally guaranteed rent and simplify affordable housing development, could be a more pragmatic and cross-over approach embraced by developers and policymakers.

Fear And Anger In The Heart of NIMBY

Cornerstone • 99 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Community Engagement Advocacy Policy
  1. Zoning reform opponents want people to be confused, angry, and fearful, but reform supporters aim to inform people with the belief that information is on their side.
  2. Negative behavior and attacks from opponents persist, making it challenging to engage in positive dialogue and find common ground in housing advocacy.
  3. NIMBYism is driven by a deep fear of change, with opponents believing increased housing density will disrupt their lives, creating a generational and emotional divide in housing debates.

In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. In the second quarter of 2024, nearly 20% of new rental units were single-family homes. This shows a growing interest in single-family rentals.
  2. The number of single-family units built-for-rent has almost doubled since 2020, indicating a trend towards more single-family developments.
  3. While multi-family rental units saw a big drop, single-family units are becoming a bigger part of the rental market, signaling a shift in housing demand.

Can America Admit It's Lonely?

The New Urban Order • 199 implied HN points • 11 Aug 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Loneliness Housing Policy Community Connection
  1. Loneliness and social isolation in America are serious issues that can lead to mental health challenges and premature death. Building social connections should be a priority like other public health issues.
  2. In the past, there were more housing options that naturally fostered community and connection. Policy decisions made privacy a priority over connection in the last century.
  3. Private sector initiatives like apps promoting living near friends or co-living spaces are addressing the need for more socially connected housing, while policymakers have not yet prioritized this issue.

Mexican Housing Crunch

Mindset Value • 196 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💼 Business Housing Investment Market Analysis
  1. Mexico is not building enough homes, with production expected to be 50% lower than in 2013.
  2. Record home price appreciation in Mexico due to the housing shortage.
  3. Investing in Mexican homebuilders like Consorcio Ara can present opportunities for growth and capital returns.

Next week: debating a $17 billion budget. This week: debating printing costs

City Hall Watcher • 78 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Budget Health Housing Infrastructure
  1. Toronto City Hall is facing a significant budget battle next week over a $17 billion budget.
  2. Council spent time debating printing costs, travel expenses, bus lanes, and shelters in their recent meetings.
  3. The Toronto Community Housing Board is tackling the issue of overhoused households, aiming to reallocate space for those on the waitlist.

The Relief And Horror That Renting Is More Financially Sound Than Buying

Good Reason • 199 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Personal Finance Wealth Investing Real Estate
  1. Renting is now more financially sound than buying due to high mortgage rates and home prices.
  2. Renting may save money now, but high rents are still a burden on many, making it hard to save for a home in the future.
  3. The current housing situation reflects negatively on society, with both buying and renting becoming expensive options.