The hottest Risk management Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Failing upwards

davidj.substack • 35 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Taking risks is a natural part of business. Employees at all levels face risks, and their roles should help manage those risks effectively.
  2. Data teams need to engage with business risks and help optimize rewards. Building data infrastructure should only be a means to support this goal.
  3. Not everyone is suited for risk-taking roles in the private sector. Some people may excel at politics but fail to deliver real results, which leads to inefficiencies in recruitment.

Investing Is Like Riding A Roller Coaster

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Investing can be unpredictable, much like a roller coaster ride. You have to be prepared for ups and downs in the market.
  2. Recent years have felt calm for investors, similar to a lazy river ride, but things can change unexpectedly in the future.
  3. No one really knows what will happen in the market next, so it's important to stay cautious and ready for surprises.

The Fortune of Failure

Equal Ventures • 59 implied HN points • 18 May 22
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Building resiliency is key for success in both good and bad market conditions
  2. Being well-capitalized allows seizing opportunities during market downturns
  3. Maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial to navigating market cycles effectively

CISA’s Take on Vulnerability Prioritization and Management

Resilient Cyber • 59 implied HN points • 22 Nov 22
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. CISA emphasizes using machine-readable formats for security advisories to help organizations quickly understand and respond to vulnerabilities. Automating this process can speed up how fast companies act against threats.
  2. The Vulnerability Exploitability eXchange (VEX) helps organizations know if a vulnerability affects their products. This allows them to focus on the most critical risks rather than wasting time on ones that don't impact them.
  3. CISA's Stakeholder Specific Vulnerability Categorization (SSVC) helps organizations prioritize which vulnerabilities to address based on impact and urgency. It guides decision-making with a structured approach to risk management.

Degenesis: How to source memes to trade, perform DD, and size your bets

Boltzmann Soul • 2 HN points • 28 Jun 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Understand how to source memes for trading by looking at opportunity identification and filtering through platforms like Dexscreener.
  2. Perform due diligence on meme coins by checking for burned liquidity, mint and freeze authorities, holder distribution, and top trader PnL health.
  3. Size your bets based on the Kelly criterion formula, considering probabilities of success and potential bet gains. Tactical execution includes recycling costs, dollar-cost averaging, and follow-on investments.
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Investing for Alpha or Beta?

Equal Ventures • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Venture capital industry can exhibit herd behavior and be consensus-driven, deviating from contrarian thinking.
  2. Investors chasing beta during market peaks can lead to significant losses when the market corrects, highlighting the importance of sound investment strategies.
  3. Sticking to core investment sectors, avoiding chasing trends, and focusing on long-term conviction can lead to sustainable returns independent of market cycles.

Improving factor returns through structural factors

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Reported factor returns are partly driven by changing valuation multiples, not just fundamentals; removing those valuation effects reveals a structural premium that better reflects underlying, fundamental-driven returns.
  2. Valuation-driven revaluation effects shrink over longer horizons, so structural factor returns become more important for long-term investors and should guide long-term factor weightings.
  3. Constructing multi-factor portfolios using structural premiums improves expected long-term performance versus conventional approaches, though investors will still experience realized valuation swings that cannot be hedged.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

We are in Deep Seek

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 23 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. AI technology has potential benefits, but it also comes with serious risks, especially if it falls into the wrong hands. This includes weaponization or harmful behaviors.
  2. The current pace of AI development is driven by economic and military incentives, which makes it hard to prioritize safety and caution.
  3. There's a need for better global cooperation and regulation in AI development to ensure it benefits humanity while minimizing the risks.

Twitch Bans Gambling [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 23 Sep 22
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Twitch banned unlicensed gambling on their platform which was a huge niche worth hundreds of millions, leading to a significant impact on the streaming community.
  2. The ban followed a major scam by a popular Twitch streamer that exposed concerns about minors and addicts being drawn to unregulated gambling sites.
  3. The decision by Twitch highlights the importance of regulations in online gambling, the risks associated with unregulated systems, and the societal impact of excessive gambling content consumption.

High Performing Teams: Where do the Risks come from?

🔮 Crafting Tech Teams • 19 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Identifying risk areas that can impede team development, such as expectation management, trust-building with stakeholders, and lack of experience.
  2. Challenges in relations between Product and Engineer teams, including unresolved tension, imposter syndrome, and lack of trust.
  3. Emphasizing the importance of being skilled in expectation management and building trust to foster a high-performing team.

Stocks I'm Watching As The Market Sells Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. The stock market has recently seen a drop, and many analysts still insist it's always a good time to buy, regardless of prices. This seems unrealistic, especially when many factors suggest selling might be a better option.
  2. Big companies like Apple and Amazon significantly influence the stock market, while retail investors are often trading options instead of actual stocks. This creates a speculative environment where many aren't looking for real value.
  3. Despite market challenges, there are still opportunities to find valuable investments that aren't being highlighted in mainstream financial media. It's important to look for these hidden gems amid all the noise.

The why and how of SaaS Governance

Resilient Cyber • 39 implied HN points • 06 Feb 23
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. Organizations need a solid plan to manage the security risks associated with their wide use of Software as a Service (SaaS). This includes knowing what SaaS applications they use and applying security measures.
  2. Many companies focus heavily on securing their infrastructure services like AWS or Azure, but they often overlook the significant risks that come with SaaS applications. This can lead to security breaches.
  3. It's important for businesses to understand the shared responsibility model in cloud security and realize that while SaaS providers handle some security, the ultimate responsibility for data protection still lies with the organization.

On attack, defence and the beautiful game

The Jolly Contrarian • 19 implied HN points • 01 May 23
🎾 Sports Risk management
  1. Different values are placed on attack and defence in sports like football based on the asymmetry of payoffs between the two roles.
  2. Defenders focus on conservative, coordinated actions to maintain the status quo, while attackers take big risks to improve the position.
  3. Infinite games, characterized by complex systems and unpredictable outcomes, require the ability to adjust, react, adapt, and capitalize on opportunities in a changing environment.

Quant Letter: November 2024, Week-2

The Parlour • 25 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. A new computational method can measure the shadow rate, which helps in comparing different investment types. This can give investors better insights.
  2. Using multi-agent systems for investment research allows adaptation to changing market conditions, leading to improved performance over traditional models.
  3. Machine learning continues to show promise in finance, with various models effectively predicting market behavior and improving investment strategies.

11 Things I Learned About Fraudsters

European Straits • 27 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. Always check the facts. Fraudsters often lie about who they've talked to or what approvals they have, so it’s important to verify their claims.
  2. Be careful of boundary violations. Fraudsters are great at manipulating people to help them, often by exploiting their weaknesses or feelings of loyalty.
  3. Don't ignore warning signs just because things seem chaotic. Fraudsters can use disorder to divert attention from their actual wrongdoings.

Cannibal Spirits

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Markets can go both up and down, which is a natural part of freedom in trading. It's important to understand that fluctuations are normal.
  2. The term 'animal spirits' is often used to explain market behavior, but many believe it's overused and doesn't accurately describe what's really happening.
  3. There's a perception that the financial system is rigged, relying heavily on inflation and debt, which can create skepticism about the true state of the markets.

The Volatility Divergence

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Implied volatility has been rising even as stock prices remain strong. This means that while investors are confident, they are also anticipating potential future risks.
  2. The current divergence between high volatility expectations and low actual volatility is unusual. It's rare for stock prices to be high while at the same time expecting more volatility.
  3. There are concerns in the market about various factors like corporate earnings and macroeconomic issues. These worries might not be reflected in stock prices right now, but they're still influencing how investors are pricing risk.

What immortal hand or eye: The Archegos affair, Part 1.

The Jolly Contrarian • 39 implied HN points • 23 Jul 22
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Family offices, even though seemingly benign, can engage in risky behavior that can have significant market impacts.
  2. Securities markets are complex environments where probabilistic risk management tools may fail, especially in extreme scenarios.
  3. Regulations requiring banks to pay out variation margins can inadvertently pour petrol on a fire during market volatility, leading to unintended consequences.

When to Use Forecasting for Decisions

Abstraction • 19 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💼 Business Risk management
  1. It's not always worth it to forecast when making decisions. Sometimes it's better to prepare for the worst or trust experts who know what they're doing.
  2. For less important choices, you can follow proven rules or experts. This makes decision-making easier and saves time.
  3. When facing big decisions, like moving cities, it's smart to gather data to guide your choice. Using information about others’ experiences can help you make better decisions.

It's Always Darkest Before Dawn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. The Fed can't stop a bear market from happening when stock prices are extremely high. This means that even with their efforts, a market drop could still occur.
  2. Sometimes it's not worth trying to understand why a strategy failed. It's better to acknowledge it and move on rather than clinging to a losing bet.
  3. Hedge fund managers often write letters during tough times, but many don't take responsibility for their mistakes. It's refreshing when someone admits to being wrong without making excuses.

Why You Should Join The Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company

Why You Should Join • 2 implied HN points • 10 Nov 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. AI systems need to earn trust to become widely adopted. This is because their unpredictable behavior can lead to serious problems, like giving bad advice or leaking sensitive information.
  2. The Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company (AIUC) is creating standards and insurance for AI to help companies feel more secure when using these technologies. They offer a certification that includes audits and liability coverage.
  3. As businesses face more risks with AI, having a trust framework like AIUC's is essential. This helps streamline the adoption process by showing that safety and compliance are taken seriously.

Math Gets Harder, Medical AI Gets Safer, and Russian Speech Gets a Boost

HackerPulse Dispatch • 5 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Risk management
  1. New tests show that AI struggles with real math problems, often just recognizing patterns instead of truly understanding math. This highlights that AI still has a long way to go in reasoning skills.
  2. A new approach in medical AI allows it to work alongside doctors more effectively, improving diagnosis speed and quality while keeping human oversight. This makes it a promising tool in healthcare.
  3. A new Russian speech dataset helps improve AI's ability to generate and enhance speech, proving that having high-quality data leads to better AI performance.

#1: Varieties of the unknown

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 179 implied HN points • 06 Nov 19
💼 Business Risk management
  1. There are different types of unknown situations we can face. It's important to recognize these differences because they affect how we make decisions.
  2. A common mistake is treating real uncertainty like risk, thinking we can predict outcomes when we really can't. Understanding this can help us better navigate complex situations.
  3. We need to find new ways to plan and react when faced with unknown outcomes, since these scenarios are becoming more common. Simply applying a risk mindset isn't enough.

How did COVID (Really) Shape Supply Chains?

Gad’s Newsletter • 50 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💼 Business Risk management
  1. During COVID, global supply chains faced disruptions from lockdowns, shortages, and transportation issues.
  2. Companies reduced the number of countries they sourced from but maintained the same number of suppliers.
  3. Businesses adapted ordering patterns by increasing shipment size and volume while decreasing frequency, influenced by the pandemic.

The Death of Credit Suisse

Apricitas Economics • 64 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Credit Suisse faced major financial issues over several years, with losses, leaked data, and fines leading to its demise.
  2. Swiss authorities forced Credit Suisse to merge with UBS to prevent a public collapse and global financial crisis.
  3. The fallout from Credit Suisse's fall includes impacts on European banks, market confidence, and central bank efforts to stabilize the financial system.

#18: Coronavirus

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 04 Mar 20
🏥 Health Politics Risk management
  1. It's hard to know how long someone can spread the virus without showing symptoms. The lengths of these periods can vary a lot.
  2. Contagion can spread quickly because people who seem healthy might still be infectious. This makes tracking and isolating cases much harder.
  3. Even though it might seem like the flu is more dangerous, we don't have the same defenses against coronavirus, making the potential for widespread issues very real.

What is Capitulation ?

Shivansh • 1 HN point • 13 Jun 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Capitulation happens when investors lose hope in the market and sell their investments at low prices, often during tough times like a financial crisis.
  2. Technical analysis, like using candlestick charts, helps identify capitulation patterns that signal potential major changes in price trends.
  3. Capitulation can present opportunities for profit, depending on whether an investor is in a long or short position - it's neither inherently good nor bad, but a strategic move.

Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets • 39 implied HN points • 19 Jan 22
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. US stocks did really well in 2021, continuing a strong climb from the previous year. This makes investors feel good, but it also raises concerns about whether stocks are becoming too expensive.
  2. Different sectors performed differently; energy and real estate were the winners in 2021, unlike the tech stocks that led in 2020. This shows how market trends can quickly change and impact returns.
  3. The risk of investing in stocks has shifted, and the expected returns are lower than in the past. Investors need to rethink how much they expect to earn from the stock market in the future.

Day 1: The Dawn of Icarus

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. It's important to adjust your trading bets based on how much money you have. If you don't, you risk losing out when the market goes your way.
  2. Scalping small trades can be effective, but be careful not to overtrade. There's a fine line between making smart quick trades and making too many trades without focus.
  3. Staying invested in the market, even if it's not moving much, can pay off. It’s better to be in the market than trying to guess when to get in or out.