The hottest Risk management Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Product Management Skills - Articulating fitness risks

Joseph Gefroh • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💼 Business Product Management Risk management Market research Product Development
  1. Articulate and define risks as a product manager to create value, balancing different factors.
  2. Fitness risk is the risk that your solution won't solve the intended problem effectively.
  3. Address fitness risk early by validating solutions with minimal effort, such as research-based or competitor-based approaches.

Product Management Skills - Articulating development cost risks

Joseph Gefroh • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💼 Business Product Management Risk management Cost Analysis Decision-making
  1. As a product manager, it's crucial to articulate, define, and compare risks to make informed decisions.
  2. Development cost risk is a key consideration for product managers, impacting the cost-effectiveness of solutions.
  3. Saying 'no' to a project due to development cost concerns may actually hinder value delivery, as development costs are ongoing even when no work is done.

Start Here: Locks & Leaks Teaser

Locks and Leaks • 0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Security Red-Teaming Risk management
  1. Locks & Leaks promotes the physical security red teaming profession to help organizations make better security decisions.
  2. The site offers an outline of the Locks & Leaks structure, including resources for physical red teaming and profession growth.
  3. Different sections on red team types and targets, red team tradecraft, and building a red team provide detailed insights and guidance.

Safe events

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 30 Aug 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Events Rapid Testing Risk management Compliance
  1. Rapid antigen tests can help make events safer by reducing the risk of someone infectious attending, but they are not foolproof. Testing before an event and daily can help manage the risk of potential spread.
  2. The use of rapid tests can potentially lead to a sense of complacency regarding social distancing and mask-wearing, so it's important to have a clear plan in place in case someone tests positive at the event.
  3. In the end, having everyone vaccinated is crucial, with testing serving as an additional layer of protection especially in high-prevalence situations. However, there are no guarantees, so decisions should be made based on the specific circumstances.

What to do about vaccine hesitancy

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 23 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine Hesitancy Risk management
  1. Vaccine hesitancy is influenced by individual perceptions of Covid-19 risk, their preferences, and the prevalence of the virus in the population.
  2. Vaccine passports target personal motivations for getting vaccinated but don't address the underlying gap between private and social incentives.
  3. A strategy to ease restrictions based on prevalence levels can help align individual and societal incentives for vaccination, focusing on managing infection risks and encouraging timely vaccination.
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The Economist's Trigger

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 08 Mar 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Emotions Vaccines Pandemic Risk management Public Health
  1. Emotional reactions can be unpredictable and vary from person to person, sparking different responses even to the same triggers.
  2. Individuals may have differing perspectives on concepts like fairness and personal rights, leading to contrasting emotional reactions.
  3. Varying emotional triggers can highlight differences in values and beliefs, such as the balance between individual freedoms and social cohesion.

Information provision and individual response

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Risk management Behavior Change
  1. People's knowledge about COVID-19 symptoms and transmission mechanisms influenced their adoption of risk mitigation measures like mask-wearing and social distancing.
  2. Government actions such as messaging, mask mandates, and lockdowns played a significant role in changing behavior, with noticeable differences in behavior between countries with and without these measures.
  3. While knowledge was associated with increased protective measures, adoption of social distancing practices was not sufficient, indicating that other factors may influence this behavior.

Uncomfortable vaccine decisions

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 11 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Public Health Economics Medical Ethics Risk management
  1. Vaccine distribution plans should consider region-by-region vaccination to achieve normality in some places earlier, rather than nationally all at once.
  2. Participants of vaccine trials who received placebos could be considered for early vaccination to encourage more trial participation.
  3. Vaccinating air travelers early could help reopen the airline industry sooner and reduce the need for government bailouts, despite initial dislike for the idea.

Test Week: On the Rebound

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Covid-19 testing Public Behavior Risk management
  1. Implementing widespread, cheap, rapid Covid-19 testing may impact people's behavior in managing contagion risk.
  2. Rolling out a testing regime could lead to a rebound effect where people engage in less social distancing and mask-wearing, potentially increasing infections.
  3. To mitigate the rebound effect, it is important to identify groups likely to reduce social distancing, combine testing with mandatory distancing, and avoid relying solely on self-reported tests.

Messiness and automation

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 16
🕹 Technology Automation AI Aviation Risk management Ethics
  1. Messiness and disorganization can sometimes lead to innovation and better outcomes, challenging the belief that perfection is always necessary.
  2. There is a trade-off between automation for efficiency and the risk of losing skills and expertise, as highlighted in the context of pilot automation systems.
  3. Balancing the level of 'mess' or disorganization in our lives is essential, as too much or too little can both have detrimental consequences.

The Principal Agent Problem

Metarational • 0 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💼 Business Organizational Structure Risk management Corruption
  1. Organizations appoint agents to make decisions on their behalf, which can lead to the principal agent problem if the agent's incentives don't align with the organization's goals.
  2. Solving the principal agent problem involves aligning incentives between the agent and the organization, and constraining the choices the agent can make to avoid conflicts.
  3. The principal agent problem can result in corruption, excessive risk-taking, or aversion to risk, impacting organizations like hedge funds, universities, and government agencies.

Vector Lab in collaboration with Avery Corp: Special Research Report: Getting Rich Quick

Do Not Research • 0 implied HN points • 15 Oct 22
💰 Finance Investing Income Risk management Promotions Collaboration
  1. The research aimed to find ways to get rich quick through novel schemes rather than going for traditional jobs or hustles.
  2. There are distinctions between scams and schemes, with schemes focusing on exploiting systems instead of individuals.
  3. One profitable scheme discussed in the research is 'gambling promotion arbitrage' which involves taking advantage of 'risk free bet' offers from different sportsbooks.

Perceived options are pivotal

AI Prospects: Toward Global Goal Convergence • 0 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Implementation Risk management AI Systems
  1. Perceived possibilities shape perceived options, interests, and goals, and recognizing new possibilities can lead to better outcomes.
  2. AI has the potential to create and destroy options, impacting the interests of various entities, and understanding this could align goals.
  3. To benefit from AI while reducing risks, there needs to be a better understanding of safe, highly capable AI systems and their potential impact on society.

About that ISDA Pt 6(a): Section 2(a)(iii): the theory

The Jolly Contrarian • 0 implied HN points • 08 May 24
💰 Finance Risk management
  1. Section 2(a)(iii) of the ISDA Master Agreement outlines conditions that need to be met for each party's obligations in a transaction, including no default events against the other party.
  2. Assets in financial agreements need to have continuity in time and space to maintain their value, and flawed assets can cause issues during insolvency proceedings.
  3. The ISDA's flawed asset clause allows a non-defaulting party to suspend obligations if the defaulting party fails, avoiding crystallizing a mark-to-market loss but compromising the defaulting party's asset.

From the ISDA annals: employment derivatives

The Jolly Contrarian • 0 implied HN points • 26 Apr 24
💰 Finance Financial Instruments Risk management
  1. Employment derivatives were created to manage the risk of employment variability, but interest in them waned due to selling practices.
  2. The concept of hedging employment rate risks with swaps was proposed, allowing companies to manage the unpredictability of their workforce.
  3. Observable measures like PIBOR were introduced to gauge prevailing startup insanity and credibility spreads, contributing to the financialization of the employment relationship.

About that ISDA Pt 4(b): The qualities of a good ISDA

The Jolly Contrarian • 0 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💼 Business Negotiation Risk management Customer Relations Simplicity
  1. Consistency in contract terms is crucial for clarity and efficiency, especially in crises when quick decisions are needed.
  2. Template simplification is valuable; strive for plain, modern language in legal documents to aid understanding and reduce negotiation time.
  3. Challenging outdated organizational forms is possible and beneficial; offering to improve them can lead to positive changes and improve relationships with customers.

About that ISDA: Pt 1: Three aims of an ISDA

The Jolly Contrarian • 0 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💼 Business Finance Legal Derivatives Contracts Risk management
  1. Understanding the ISDA Master Agreement is important for trading swaps and managing risks in the financial market.
  2. The ISDA Master Agreement serves as a relationship contract, a credit risk management tool, and a capital optimization tool for counterparties in derivative transactions.
  3. Over time, the ISDA has grown from a simple means of expediting trades to a complex bureaucratic process, but its core importance remains in facilitating OTC derivative transactions.

HOSE quá tải

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 21
💰 Finance Stock Market Software Technology Risk management Investing
  1. The HOSE stock exchange in Vietnam is overloaded and facing challenges with its software, prompting discussions about potential solutions from companies like FPT.
  2. There are concerns regarding the effectiveness and timeline of proposed solutions, as well as the ability to handle the high trading volume of HOSE compared to other exchanges.
  3. Software development projects, especially complex ones like this, often face uncertainties in timelines and outcomes, with estimates being difficult to pinpoint accurately.

hindsight bias

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 0 implied HN points • 21 May 08
💰 Finance Behavioral Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Financial Institutions
  1. Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe that outcomes were predictable, even though they may not have been at the time.
  2. People often overestimate their ability to predict future events based on their perceived success in predicting past events.
  3. There are numerous factors that can influence stock market outcomes, making it difficult to accurately predict future market behavior.

Attention Freelancers! How to spot a client red flag 🚩

The Open Source Expert • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jul 24
💼 Business Freelancing Client Relations Contracts Risk management
  1. Look out for clients who can't clearly tell you what they want. If they keep changing their mind or seem confused, it could be a sign of trouble.
  2. Be cautious of clients who expect free work or make promises about future jobs that never happen. It's usually better to get a commitment upfront.
  3. Always have a retainer agreement in place. This helps set clear expectations and protects you if things go wrong.

Quality Engineering Basics: Automated vs. Manual

QUALITY BOSS • 0 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Software Testing Automation Quality Assurance Risk management Frameworks
  1. Deciding which tests to automate or run manually is important. You should look at the risk level and necessary effort for each test.
  2. Using a scoring system can help prioritize tests. This involves scoring impact, likelihood, frequency, and the effort required for manual or automated testing.
  3. Starting small with your scoring approach is a good idea. You can adjust the numbers until you find what works best for your testing needs.

Building Thrive AI: Navigating the Challenges of Deploying AI Tools in Organizations

Code and Context • 0 implied HN points • 09 Jul 24
🕹 Technology AI Tools Health tech Data Privacy Risk management Innovation
  1. Organizations of all sizes are interested in using AI tools, especially Large Language Models, to improve their services and operations. This includes fields like healthcare, finance, and education.
  2. Implementing these AI tools comes with challenges like ensuring data privacy, integrating into existing workflows, and finding the right balance between AI and human skills.
  3. It's important to assess risk, manage data carefully, set clear goals, and choose the right AI models to ensure successful deployment of AI solutions in organizations.

On Innovation

Something to Consider • 0 implied HN points • 16 Jun 24
💼 Business Innovation Economics Risk management Government Policy Corporate strategy
  1. Innovating is risky, and many people are afraid to invest in new ideas because the outcomes are uncertain. Government help might be needed to encourage more people to take these risks.
  2. One idea for helping innovation is to give tax breaks to companies that offer stock options to their employees. This could motivate workers to take more risks with their projects.
  3. There are challenges with making this system fair and preventing abuse, but finding ways to promote innovation is crucial because it benefits everyone in society.

Financial Management: Modelling & Analysis

Logos • 0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 20
💰 Finance Financial Analysis Investment strategy Risk management Statistical Methods
  1. Only create financial models when necessary. If the decision is clear, don't waste time building a model just to check a box.
  2. Focus on the key variables that have the biggest impact. It's often just a couple of factors that make the most difference in the results.
  3. Use tools like Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis to understand risks and potential outcomes better. They can help you see how different situations might play out.

A Viral Market Update XIV: A Wrap on the COVID market, premature or not!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 05 Nov 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Stock Market Economic Trends Risk management
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic caused major shifts in financial markets, with significant gains in technology and healthcare sectors while energy and real estate suffered. Companies that adapted quickly have done better than those that did not.
  2. Younger and high-growth companies have gained more value during the crisis, while older and low-growth firms have lost ground. This shows a trend towards investing in future potential rather than established stability.
  3. The stock market's recovery suggests that investors are hopeful about the economy bouncing back despite ongoing uncertainties. This reflects a belief that the worst of the crisis has passed, even though challenges remain.

Value Investing III: Requiem, Rebirth or Reinvention?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Asset Valuation Investment Strategies
  1. Value investing has become too strict and doesn't adapt to new businesses, especially in tech. This has caused some investors to miss great opportunities.
  2. It's important to understand the difference between value and price when investing. These concepts are different and need different ways to look at them.
  3. Investing isn't about being morally right; it's about making smart choices. Value investors should respect other investing styles and learn from them to improve their own strategies.

A Viral Market Update XII: The Resilience of Private Risk Capital

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Jul 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Trends Risk management Equity markets
  1. Private risk capital, like venture capital, has surprisingly remained strong during the crisis, unlike past downturns where such funding dried up.
  2. Growth companies and flexible businesses have thrived while traditional, capital-intensive companies struggled, showing a shift in market values.
  3. Investors are more willing to take risks now, leading to a rise in IPOs and high-yield bond issuances, unlike previous crises where these opportunities vanished.

A Viral Market Update XI: The Flexibility Premium

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 Jul 20
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Corporate Finance Risk management Economic Trends
  1. Flexibility is key for businesses during tough times. Companies that can quickly adapt their operations are often more successful.
  2. Investment, operating, financing, and cash return flexibilities are important factors. Companies that manage these well are more likely to thrive.
  3. However, focusing on flexibility can have trade-offs like shorter business lifecycles and social costs. It's crucial to balance flexibility with long-term stability.

A Viral Market Update VIII: A Crisis Test - Value vs Growth, Active vs Passive, Small Cap vs Large!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 May 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Asset allocation Economic Trends
  1. The recent market crisis has highlighted differences between value and growth investing. Value investors have faced significant losses, while growth stocks did not drop as much.
  2. Active investing is struggling against passive strategies like index funds, which have been gaining popularity. Many active funds underperformed during recent market turmoil.
  3. Small cap stocks have underperformed compared to large caps during this crisis. This suggests that large companies may become more dominant in the post-COVID economy.

A Viral Market Meltdown IV: Investing for a post-virus Economy

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Mar 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk management Asset allocation
  1. The market is going through a tough time, and many investment options have lost value, showing that no asset class is completely safe right now.
  2. How quickly the economy rebounds after the crisis will depend on various factors, including consumer behavior and structural changes in the economy.
  3. Depending on your view of the recovery, you can adopt different investment strategies, like focusing on lower-debt companies or innovative ones that may thrive in the new normal.

A Viral Market Meltdown III: Pricing or Value? Trading or Investing?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 20
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Strategies Risk management Valuation Techniques Economic Analysis
  1. Price and value are different concepts. Price is what you pay in the market, while value is what a stock is really worth based on its cash flow and risk.
  2. During market chaos, prices can swing wildly based on mood and speculation. This means prices might not reflect true value for a long time.
  3. Investors need to figure out their approach based on their belief in value, their cash situation, and where they think they have an advantage in the market.

Data Update 5: Relative Risk and Hurdle Rates

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 20
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Risk management Investment Strategies Valuation Methods Market Analysis
  1. You can estimate the risk of different companies even if you don't like using betas. There are other ways to measure risk that might suit you better.
  2. When valuing investments, it’s important to first determine their risk, because that helps set a safe buying price. This means understanding both equity and debt costs.
  3. The cost of capital is calculated by looking at how much companies have to pay for funding, taking into account their mix of debt and equity. This is key for valuing companies correctly.

Data Update 3 for 2020: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 11 Feb 20
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis Equities Bonds Real Estate
  1. Risk is a necessary part of investing, and avoiding it completely can cost you potential returns. It's important to find a balance between taking on risk and ensuring enough return for that risk.
  2. The price of risk varies between different asset classes like bonds and equities, with markets setting these prices based on demand and supply. For instance, the default spread for bonds and the equity risk premium for stocks can help gauge expected returns.
  3. Real estate also has its own risk premium, which can change over time like stocks and bonds. Understanding this can help you make better decisions about how to allocate your investments.

An Ode to Luck: Revisiting my Tesla Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jan 20
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Valuation Risk management Company analysis
  1. Investing in Tesla brings mixed feelings. Some people believe in its huge potential, while others think it's too risky and overpriced.
  2. Luck played a big role in when to buy or sell Tesla stocks. It's important to recognize the difference between lucky timing and real investment skill.
  3. The future of Tesla depends on its ability to grow and make profits. Investors need to consider how well Tesla can compete in the busy car market.

Country Risk: A Mid-year 2019 Update

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 19
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Economic Policy Global Markets Political Economy
  1. When companies invest abroad, they face risks from changing currency values and unstable economies and politics. It's important to balance the potential for growth with these risks.
  2. Different countries have varying levels of risk based on their political stability, legal systems, and economic diversity. Emerging markets often have higher risks compared to developed ones.
  3. Understanding country risk is crucial for investors and businesses. It's not just about where a company is based but also where it operates and earns revenue.

The Perils of Investing Idol Worship: The Kraft Heinz Lessons!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 19
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Finance Risk management Financial Reporting
  1. Warren Buffett and major investors can make mistakes just like anyone else. Investors shouldn't blindly trust their idols without thinking critically about their decisions.
  2. Stocks are not like bonds; companies aren't required to pay dividends. If a stock's yield seems too good to be true, it might not be sustainable.
  3. Brands can lose their appeal over time. Even famous names can struggle to remain relevant as tastes change and the market evolves.

January 2019 Data Update 9: The Pricing Game

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 22 Feb 19
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate behavior Valuation Risk management
  1. The price of a stock can often differ from its true value. Factors like demand, supply, and investor feelings can affect pricing.
  2. When comparing companies, it's important to look at their pricing in relation to the market, rather than relying on absolute rules or ratios.
  3. Fundamentals often influence stock prices, meaning strong or weak performance factors can help explain why some stocks appear cheap or expensive.

An October Surprise? Making Sense of the Market Mayhem!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 18
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Behavioral Finance Economic Trends Risk management
  1. It's important to stay calm and avoid making hasty decisions during market drops. Taking a moment to breathe and disconnect from constant news can help keep your mind clear.
  2. Assessing the situation carefully is crucial. Look at the facts behind the market movements instead of jumping to conclusions about what's causing the drops.
  3. Sticking to your investment strategy is key. Don't let fear lead you to stray from your goals, and regularly evaluate your stocks to ensure they still fit your plan.