Spilled Coffee

Spilled Coffee is a Substack focused on providing insights and ideas about business and investing. It covers market trends, investment strategies, economic shifts, personal development, and technology applications for investors and businesses. The content includes analyses of stock market movements, investment opportunities, and reflections on personal and professional growth.

Investing Strategies Market Trends Business Growth Economic Analysis Technology and Productivity Financial Health Personal Development Investment Opportunities

The hottest Substack posts of Spilled Coffee

And their main takeaways

Investing Update: Year-End Rally Underway?

16 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic data Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market saw significant growth after the recent elections, with major indices like the Dow and S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. This growth was boosted by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.
  2. We are currently in a 'baby bull' market phase, and historically, November to January are the strongest months for stocks. This might indicate a potential year-end rally ahead.
  3. Political factors have less control over the stock market than many believe. Over the long run, markets tend to perform well regardless of which party is in power.

50 Awesome Things

24 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🎭️ Culture Joy Mindfulness Appreciation Lifestyle Relationships
  1. It's important to notice and appreciate the little joys in life, like a warm cup of coffee or laughing with friends. These small moments can make our days happier.
  2. Life can get busy and overwhelming, but taking a moment to reflect on the good things helps us stay positive and focused. We often overlook the awesome experiences we have every day.
  3. Simple pleasures, like seeing a friend after a long time or enjoying a delicious meal, can bring great joy. It's the little things that can really brighten our days.

Thoughts On The Election Results

16 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Democracy Stock Market Economy Political parties
  1. Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and Republicans now control the Senate. The outcome makes some happy and others upset, but that’s how democracy works.
  2. Life goes on after elections; people still go to work and school, and the community remains the same. It's normal for neighbors to be different political supporters.
  3. The stock market and economy are not going to crash due to election results. History shows that both parties have their turn in power, and the country continues to move forward.

Investing Update: Don't Forget This Chart

12 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Indicators Monetary Policy Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, with 45 new all-time highs and the best start since 2000. This means the market is doing really well right now.
  2. Despite the market's successes, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. This is a bit low and worth keeping an eye on.
  3. With recent jobless claims rising more than expected, it could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Many experts still believe there will be a rate cut soon.

Investing Update: Q4 Top Ideas & Q3 Recap

12 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market has been doing really well, with the S&P 500 seeing a strong start this year. It's the best start since 1997, which is exciting for investors.
  2. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 had its best performance since 2020, and many stocks outperformed the index. This shows healthy growth and optimism in the market.
  3. Certain sectors like utilities are doing great, while energy stocks are lagging behind. It's important to pay attention to these trends when investing.
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Investing Update: Lower Returns Ahead?

8 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Forecast Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 is hitting more record highs, showing strong momentum in the market. Many stocks are performing well, with the majority above their moving averages.
  2. Despite the positive market trends, expectations for future returns might be lower. It's important to note that past strong performances don't guarantee the same results in the future.
  3. The current earnings season could boost the market even more, but there are concerns about seasonal downturns that usually happen in October, which haven't materialized this year.

The Importance of Small & Medium-Sized Banks

4 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Lending
  1. Small and medium-sized banks are crucial for the financial infrastructure in many U.S. communities.
  2. These banks account for a significant portion of lending in various sectors like commercial, residential, and consumer.
  3. Building relationships with local banks can have a significant impact on both businesses and individuals.

Staying Invested

4 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Market volatility
  1. Staying invested is important for long-term gains in the stock market, despite market volatility.
  2. Market timing is not effective because predicting the future is impossible.
  3. Stocks historically recover from downturns, so it's important to stay invested and continue buying in the market.

The Unwinding Reliance on China

4 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
💼 Business Global Economy Investments Companies Trade Stock Market
  1. Global companies are reducing reliance on China for production by moving to other countries like India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh.
  2. Investors are reconsidering their strategic allocation to Chinese assets and countries heavily reliant on Chinese exports.
  3. Major investors and institutions are steering clear of China, indicating a shift away from Chinese investments.

5 Helpful Apps

4 implied HN points • 15 Feb 23
🕹 Technology Apps Books Podcasts Fitness Entertainment
  1. Discover useful apps that can save you time and hassle.
  2. Use apps like Shazam, Likewise, Audible, and Peloton for entertainment and fitness.
  3. Consider using Apple Podcasts for a simple and user-friendly podcast listening experience.

Investing Update: Is Apple Losing Its Taste?

0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💰 Finance Market Performance Stock Analysis Investment strategy Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has been reaching new all-time highs with strong performance across various sectors and asset classes.
  2. Despite Apple's underperformance compared to the S&P 500 and other tech stocks, it may present a potential buying opportunity as past dips in Apple have been followed by strong recoveries.
  3. The current market trend is leaning towards risk-on behavior, with evidence in the rise of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and certain ETFs.

The Nvidia Surge

0 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Companies Earnings Valuation
  1. Nvidia is experiencing an incredible surge in its stock price, reaching historic levels of growth which are uncommon for a company of its size.
  2. Nvidia has surpassed major companies in market value and stock performance, becoming one of the top companies globally.
  3. Despite the impressive growth, there are concerns about Nvidia's future, such as competition, supply chain risks, and the hype surrounding AI driving its valuation.

Why A Stock Market Pullback Is Likely

0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market volatility Financial planning
  1. The stock market is likely to experience a pullback because history shows that periods of continuous growth are always followed by downturns.
  2. Investors should be prepared for market volatility, as on average there are 3 pullbacks and a correction every year.
  3. Selloffs are a normal part of investing, and understanding the different levels like pullback, correction, bear market, and market crash can help investors navigate through fluctuations.

Investing Update: I Bought 2 Stocks

0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic outlook Retail Investors Company analysis
  1. Investors continue to feel comfortable investing in stocks as the market remains near all-time highs with positive trends.
  2. The economy is not slowing down; in fact, it's accelerating with strong signs of growth ahead according to experts like Apollo's Torsten Slok.
  3. US stock allocations are at their highest level since November 2021, with retail investors being net sellers but overall optimism in the market.

Leave It All At Work

0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Work-life balance Physical health
  1. Allow yourself to get thrown out of your routine occasionally, it can benefit you in the long run.
  2. Take breaks to disengage, enjoy peaceful walks especially in the early morning to refresh your mind and soul.
  3. Set boundaries between work and personal life to fully engage with your loved ones, learn to switch off from work worries.

Where Are Housing Prices Headed?

0 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgage Rates Home Prices Affordability
  1. Mortgage rates are at historic highs, hovering between 7-8% and leading to all-time high home prices despite low affordability.
  2. Inventory shortage persists as people with locked-in low mortgage rates hesitate to sell, contributing to the rise in home prices.
  3. Even with rising interest rates and low affordability, US home prices show resilience with 12 consecutive years of gains, indicating a continuing strength in demand.

Investing Update: Bull Market or Bear Rally?

0 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Markets Stocks Portfolios
  1. Major U.S. stock indices experienced a recent downturn after a strong upward trend earlier in the year.
  2. Technology stocks are showing a strong performance in 2023, potentially leading to profit-taking by investors.
  3. Different experts have conflicting views on the market's direction, with some predicting continued bear market while others are bullish on a new bull market.

People Never Forget How You Make Them Feel

0 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Emotions Hospitality Personal Growth
  1. People never forget how you make them feel - Focus on creating memorable experiences by giving more than expected, as it leaves a lasting impact on individuals.
  2. Stand out by exceeding expectations - Going above and beyond what is ordinary or average helps your business to be memorable and create customer loyalty.
  3. Create memorable experiences with the unexpected - By giving people more than they expect, you can make a lasting impression and eliminate competition.

The Worries Over Commercial Real Estate

0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
💼 Business Real Estate Banking Economy Investing Small business
  1. Investors are concerned about the risks in commercial real estate due to factors like refinancing challenges and price declines.
  2. Banks have significant exposure to commercial real estate lending, which may impact their financial health and ability to lend to small businesses.
  3. Factors like remote work, vacancies, and lending crunches are contributing to a potentially challenging outlook for commercial real estate and small businesses.

Investing Update: What Flows Are Telling Us

0 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economics
  1. January CPI inflation was higher than expected at 3.1%, causing some concerns, especially in the housing sector.
  2. Retail sales in January dropped more than anticipated, breaking a 9-month winning streak, despite persistent challenges.
  3. Investors have shown increased interest in technology stocks, while concerns arise regarding job cuts and sectors like energy facing underweight positioning.

Permission To Suck

0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 23
  1. Starting something new is challenging, but it gets easier with practice.
  2. Success is a progression that takes time and involves acknowledging that it's okay to not be good at first.
  3. Failing and sucking at something initially is a natural part of the learning process to eventually improve and succeed.

Investing Update: Hedge Funds Buys & Holdings

0 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Hedge Funds Earnings Market Analysis
  1. The stock market experienced a significant boost, with all three major indices reaching new all-time highs.
  2. Nvidia's exceptional earnings led to a remarkable single-day market value increase, highlighting its crucial role in the market.
  3. Hedge funds are showing increased interest in high-risk, high-growth tech companies, indicating a rising appetite for risk and growth in the market.

Investing Update: Is Inflation Reigniting? 

0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Inflation Recession Oil
  1. The S&P 500 has been on a significant upward trend, reaching record highs in recent weeks with impressive gains over several consecutive weeks.
  2. Historically, February has been a weak month for the S&P 500, and concerns about the market's performance during election years have been raised.
  3. Early indicators suggest a potential reignition of inflation, despite some positive economic data, with a focus on declining number of stocks above the 50-day moving average.

Investing Update: 3 Stocks For 2024

0 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Financial Analysis
  1. Stock market showed strong performance, reaching new all-time highs with certain companies taking the lead.
  2. Historical data suggests slow starts in the market may lead to rallies later in the year.
  3. Consider investing in stocks like Alphabet, CrowdStrike, and Home Depot for 2024, based on potential growth opportunities and market trends.

Investing Update: Is Energy The New Leader

0 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Earnings Commodities Stocks
  1. The S&P 500 finished down for two consecutive weeks for the first time since October, showing a short-term cooling trend after many positive weeks.
  2. Energy has emerged as the top performing sector in 2024, with notable gains in oil and energy stocks outpacing the Nasdaq 100.
  3. Commercial real estate prices are rebounding and attracting investor interest, leading to substantial inflows into real estate-related investments, especially REITs.