The hottest Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

The cocoa question

Asian Century Stocks • 805 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Stocks Economics Supply Chain
  1. Cocoa prices have spiked due to poor crops in West Africa, leading to challenges for chocolate producers.
  2. The tightness in the cocoa market is expected to persist, but historically, markets tend to return to balance within three years.
  3. High cocoa prices impact processors and chocolate manufacturers, who eventually pass on costs to consumers over approximately two years.

Why Technocapitalism is Stronger than DEI

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2487 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics DEI Markets Labor Unions Government regulations Economic Policies
  1. Anti-woke sentiments can be divided into those focused on discrimination and those on government interference with markets.
  2. Market forces and incentives help maintain safety standards in industries like aviation, outweighing concerns over diversity initiatives.
  3. Regulations unrelated to diversity issues, like arbitrary training standards, can sometimes have more tangible and negative impacts on industries than DEI policies.

How Live Sports Helped Netflix's Stock Surge 400%

Huddle Up • 16 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing Finance Markets Economics Consumer Trends
  1. Live sports have become a key factor in Netflix’s success, contributing to a significant increase in its stock price. It seems that people love watching sports, and that keeps them subscribed to streaming services.
  2. The involvement of high-profile investors, like Bill Ackman, in companies can also impact market trends and stock prices. When a big name invests, it often grabs attention.
  3. Streaming platforms are adapting to include live events to attract and retain viewers. This shift highlights the importance of diverse content to engage audiences.

Split the Bitcoin Baby

DeFi Education • 1199 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
🔮 Crypto Markets Investing Regulation Mining Economics
  1. Bitcoin halving happens every four years, cutting miners' rewards in half. This can make mining less profitable for some, but it might also lead to higher Bitcoin prices in the future.
  2. Historically, each Bitcoin halving has led to a price increase, as fewer new Bitcoins are created and demand usually stays the same or increases. This basic economic principle suggests prices could go up when supply decreases.
  3. Several factors, like investor trust and regulatory changes, affect how the next halving might impact Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Positive developments could lead to a crypto boom.
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On Track

Invariant • 609 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Analysis Markets Value
  1. Analyzing investments should involve a holistic reflection and critical thinking.
  2. Consider the importance of probability and odds in decision-making.
  3. Recognize that in financial markets, competition influences opportunity and the importance of value over price.

The Fed and Lennar

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

Banks banks banks (redux)

Yet Another Value Blog • 1022 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Markets Earnings
  1. If you're looking at banks below tangible book value, you don't need to worry much about hidden disasters on their balance sheets.
  2. Even though there are concerns like a potential commercial real estate crisis or a recession, banks seem well-prepared and overcapitalized.
  3. Rising interest rates could actually make banks more profitable due to their interest rate sensitivity.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stocks Cryptocurrency
  1. Tech stocks have faced some tough times lately, with a drop in the NASDAQ 100. Investors are cautious and waiting to see how major companies perform in their earnings reports.
  2. During election years, financial and tech stocks typically do well, showing good returns. This trend is backed by past market behaviors where these sectors get investor attention.
  3. Investing in copper appears shaky right now due to issues in China’s property market, but experts still believe in its long-term potential, especially linked to renewable energy needs.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

Concoda • 367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets Monetary Policy Banking Economics Investments
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Markets Bitcoin Gold Inflation Central Bank
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

Notes on Reading: Who Gets What and Why (Part 1)

Nonsense on Stilts • 79 implied HN points • 13 Jul 24
🚌 Education Economics Markets Decision-making Behavioral Science Book Reviews
  1. Matching markets are about people choosing each other rather than just buying and selling. This can include markets for jobs, schools, and even dating.
  2. In these markets, people's choices depend on each other's preferences, which can lead to complex situations. For example, if one person wants to team up with another, their choice might rely on who that second person prefers.
  3. People often lie about their preferences in matching markets to seem more appealing. This can lead to a situation where no one believes what others say, but it's a common behavior to improve chances of getting good matches.

Hong Kong's death has been exaggerated

Asian Century Stocks • 471 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Economy Markets Taxation Companies
  1. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong is currently negative, but the perception of the city changing or dying may be misplaced due to its advantages like low taxes, currency stability, and efficient infrastructure.
  2. Despite economic struggles in China, Hong Kong's economy is recovering with tourist returns, retail sales growth, and positive net migration, with potential for lower interest rates in the future.
  3. Hong Kong remains vital in Asia, benefiting from low taxes, reliable legal system, and financial hub status, even amidst challenges like interest rate impact and risks from geopolitics and National Security Law.

Community Meetup

chamathreads • 452 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💼 Business Technology Markets Global trends Community Education
  1. The meetup is private and focuses on discussing technology, markets, and global trends in the Bay Area.
  2. Chamath Palihapitiya has written deep dives on Energy Transition and AI and plans to cover U.S. healthcare next.
  3. The meetup is for paid subscribers who are part of the community of lifelong learners on Learn With Me.

Infographics: U.S. Repo Market Mechanics

Concoda • 237 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Banking Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. repo market is a place where banks and financial institutions borrow and lend money, often overnight.
  2. Understanding how the repo market works is important because it affects interest rates and overall market stability.
  3. Visual infographics can help simplify complex topics like the repo market, making it easier for everyone to understand.

ANOTHER: The Inside Gold-For-Oil Deal That Could Rock The World's Financial Centers

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Geopolitics Gold Monetary System
  1. A controversial blogger in 1997 exposed a hidden gold-for-oil deal that impacted global geopolitics.
  2. Gold prices might have been suppressed to maintain the international monetary system's stability.
  3. The delicate balance between gold, oil, and currencies has historical roots and holds the power to disrupt financial systems.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Economic Trends Stocks
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.