The hottest Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Daily Chartbook #168

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economy Stocks Bonds
  1. The Biden administration planned to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at lower oil prices but hasn't yet.
  2. For-hire truck tonnage has been increasing consistently for the last three months.
  3. There is concern over a foreign central bank maxing out the FIMA repo, not covered by FX swap lines.
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454: Biggest Bond Crash in 150 Years, Microsoft + Activision, ARM, Wikipedia, Jimmy Buffett, Semiconductors, and Tokyo Digital Twin

Liberty’s Highlights • 471 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Statistical Analysis Trends
  1. The biggest bond market rout in 150 years is happening now.
  2. Once-in-a-century events appear more frequently due to statistical misunderstanding, evolving baselines, and increased detection and reporting.
  3. Statistical probabilities can explain why 'rare' events seem to be happening more often in recent times.

Ayahuasca and the Simulacrum

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Markets Central Bank Derivatives Monetary Policy
  1. Jorge Luis Borges' fable "On Exactitude in Science" explores the concept of representation and the consequences of abstractions overtaking reality.
  2. Psychedelics like Ayahuasca can challenge our perceptions by dissolving the ego and blurring boundaries between the self and the external world.
  3. The modern financial system, with its heavy reliance on derivatives, has created a simulacrum that central bankers manipulate, leading to a dangerous dependence on fake money.

Hotel REITs

Warden Capital • 275 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Economics Markets Business
  1. Hotel REITs in the public markets have high yields and are trading at 8-10+% cap rates, making them a potentially lucrative investment option.
  2. Compared to other real estate asset classes like multifamily and industrial, hotel REITs offer superior yields and lower capex burdens, making them a cost-effective choice for investors.
  3. The hotel industry has faced challenges post-COVID, especially in urban markets, but with the recovery of leisure, group, and business travel, there is significant potential for growth and investment opportunities.

Major Signals are flashing Code Red in the Shadow Banking System

The Dollar Endgame • 718 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Investments Regulation Economy Markets
  1. The reverse repo figures reaching $2 trillion signal a serious issue in the market, showing strains on the entire banking system from massive liquidity injections.
  2. Reverse repos in the shadow banking system allow entities like MMFs to act like banks but without the same regulations, functioning in an opaque, complex, and risky world.
  3. The increased usage of the Fed's RRP facility and rising award rates indicate collateral shortages within the system, leading to concerns about the stability of MMFs and potential risks in the financial system.

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Central Banks Inflation Technology Companies Geopolitical
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Indices Markets
  1. Freddie Mac's National Home Price Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in January, marking a positive trend in the housing market
  2. The index has been climbing consecutively for the past 13 months, showing sustained growth in home prices
  3. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that 16 states and D.C. experienced price declines, with Austin being the worst-performing city

💥Bed Bath & Bagholders💥

PETITION • 569 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Markets Bankruptcy Liquidity
  1. Hudson Bay Capital and BBBY structured a deal involving convertible preferred stock, benefiting Hudson Bay financially.
  2. BBBY raised $225mm to address credit issues and pay vendors, but needed more liquidity for a turnaround.
  3. The deal with Hudson Bay also included warrants to buy $800mm of preferred stock, with conditions to protect Hudson Bay's downside.

The Fed's Hidden Put

Concoda • 437 implied HN points • 18 Jun 23
💰 Finance Markets Liquidity Funding Monetary Policy Banking
  1. The repo market plays a crucial role in providing liquidity to the financial system globally.
  2. The repo market structure involves lenders like money market funds connecting with borrowers like hedge funds through various intermediaries.
  3. Recent changes in the repo market dynamics may lead to the Fed utilizing it as a tool for market stimulation.

Where the crops go

Topsoil • 471 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💼 Business Agriculture Markets Demand Consumption Industry
  1. Farmers need to consider demand when deciding what crops to grow.
  2. Proximity to markets can influence a farm's choice of crops to grow.
  3. Various stakeholders, including farmers, cooperatives, commodity groups, and the government, work together to grow demand for agricultural products.

The Misuse and Abuse of "Market Failure"

Knowledge Problem • 314 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
🚌 Education Economics Public Policy Regulation Markets Government intervention
  1. Market failure is often casually used to criticize outcomes not liked, but in economics, it has specific technical meanings like external costs or benefits.
  2. The concept of market failure is misused and misunderstood in policy analysis, leading to inaccurate criticisms of market outcomes.
  3. Critiques of market failure should consider the imperfections of government interventions as well, and focus on reducing transactions costs to enhance resource allocation.

The Tale of Two Chinas

The Last Bear Standing • 60 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Policy Debt Investment
  1. China's economic growth was heavily reliant on property development and infrastructure, funded by the massive expansion of credit.
  2. The shift in Chinese government policy towards reforming the property sector and debt markets led to a significant impact on the economy.
  3. The Chinese financial system faced the risk of a crisis due to the extensive exposure to property debt and potential credit losses.