The hottest Political Analysis Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Top Links 596 What difference did the IRA make? Cholera deaths and Clark on Anderson on World War I.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation History International relations Public Health Political Analysis
  1. The IRA's impact is being analyzed, looking at how significant it was. It's important to understand historical events and their effects on today's world.
  2. Cholera deaths are discussed to highlight public health issues and their historical context. This reminds us of the importance of sanitation and health systems.
  3. The mention of World War I and key figures shows the relevance of history in understanding current affairs. Learning about the past helps us navigate today’s complexities.

The Jerk Store Called...

Unpopular Front • 146 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Critique Public Opinion Civic engagement Political History
  1. The writer feels that the other person's critiques show a consistent pattern of viewing the world in terms of superficial character judgments. They argue this perspective is overly harsh and lacking depth.
  2. There is a belief that John’s January 6th piece was not his best work, and while he acknowledges that criticism is valid, he insists that its serious implications are often overlooked.
  3. The writer expresses disappointment in the response to January 6th, feeling there was a missed opportunity for a strong public defense of democracy that could have led to meaningful reforms.

Be Careful What You Wish For: Gaza Edition

Gideon's Substack • 38 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Foreign Policy Middle East Elections Public Opinion
  1. Trump may be setting a trap for Israel by proposing a plan for Gaza that seems appealing but is unrealistic. It suggests removing a population without addressing how to actually do it.
  2. Many Israelis seem to support Trump's plan, thinking it will lead to a solution for Gaza. But this belief might backfire if they realize the plan can't actually happen.
  3. This situation could create a political mess for Israel in the future. If Trump's promises go unfulfilled, the Israeli people may seek someone to blame, leading to more instability.

Mentions of Political Extremism in English Wikipedia

Rozado’s Visual Analytics • 350 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Studies Data Visualization Extremism
  1. English Wikipedia mentions far-right political extremism three times more than far-left extremism. This shows a noticeable difference in how each side is portrayed.
  2. The terms used to describe political extremism vary, with 'extreme' often linked more to the right and 'radical' to the left. However, the overall trend still favors right-wing mentions.
  3. These patterns in Wikipedia echo trends found in news media, suggesting that the way political extremism is discussed might be influenced by broader social and historical factors.

How the Indigo Blob runs a bluff

Silver Bulletin • 397 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Government Public Policy Political Analysis
  1. Biden's age-related decline is often hidden by the White House. Many around Washington know about it, but it's not openly discussed.
  2. Media coverage has been inconsistent about Biden's age. While some outlets pointed it out, others downplayed or ignored the issue.
  3. Claims of a conspiracy regarding Biden's ability seem to have some truth. There was effort to manage how his decline was presented to the public.
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Commentator

Castalia • 639 implied HN points • 08 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Public Opinion Government Accountability International relations
  1. Many people believe Biden should drop out of the race because he seems too old and is dragging the party down, but he refuses to listen to that advice.
  2. Electoral shifts in Britain and France show that political power is moving away from the centrist parties and towards the extremes, leaving a lot of uncertainty in how these countries will be governed.
  3. The response to COVID highlighted serious flaws in trusting experts without questioning them, which led to unnecessary restrictions and a loss of trust in government and public health authorities.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Silver Bulletin • 905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Forecasting
  1. The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
  2. Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
  3. Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

Trump’s Day 1 Executive Orders Are a Live Grenade Thrown at His Own Voters

Proof • 84 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policies Political Analysis Government actions Public Opinion
  1. A new president has surprised many by making decisions that seem to harm their own supporters. It feels like the president is ignoring what his voters want in favor of satisfying those who supported his campaign financially.
  2. The actions taken by the president on the first day in office have been viewed as extreme and harmful by some. This has raised concerns about loyalty to the people who voted for him.
  3. Many believe these early decisions could lead to significant backlash from his voter base. It's seen as a risky move that could hurt his relationship with those who originally backed him.

Davos Impressions and Ukraine: Dealing with a Cult

Phillips’s Newsletter • 124 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Issues Conflict Studies Political Analysis
  1. Visiting Davos can give insights into the current global situation, though the information may not be completely reliable. It helps in understanding different perspectives on important issues.
  2. There's a perception that American views on Ukraine are somewhat cult-like, focused mainly on understanding their leader's thoughts. This can create a narrow viewpoint.
  3. European leaders seem to recognize the danger of this mindset surrounding Ukraine but often try to appease it instead of addressing the underlying issues.

As Alternative für Deutschland continues to rise in the polls, the centre-right CDU find themselves out of options and in a self-destructive messaging spiral

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 204 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voting Trends Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Alternative für Deutschland is gaining support in recent polls, showing a significant increase in their popularity.
  2. The centre-right CDU is struggling to maintain voter support and is stuck in a pattern of negative messaging against the AfD.
  3. Friedrich Merz, the CDU's chancellor candidate, is linking his future to not cooperating with the AfD, even as many of his own supporters lean towards them.

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

Silver Bulletin • 790 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. The election model predicted the map based on 80,000 simulations, accurately reflecting the most common outcome, though some surprises were noted.
  2. Polling errors tend to be similar across states, meaning if Trump performed poorly in one swing state, he likely did in others, leading to a statistically predictable outcome.
  3. Beneath the overall results, some deep blue states showed unexpected weakness for the Democrats, while some traditionally red states are trending more blue, indicating shifting voter patterns.

Markets Can Turn And Inform

Points And Figures • 959 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Market Trends Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Prediction markets can show trends in politics, like giving Trump a higher chance to win. They react quickly to news, telling us what people think in real-time.
  2. Many people have lost trust in mainstream media. This is because they feel that the news is biased or not credible, leading more to rely on alternative sources.
  3. It's important to recognize our own biases when interpreting market signals. Getting caught up in our beliefs can prevent us from seeing changes that could affect our decisions.

HWFO Reading List, December 2024

Handwaving Freakoutery • 418 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Election insights Public Health
  1. The idea of who is 'qualified' for jobs can differ greatly among people. Some argue that a person's personal motivations can make them more suited for certain roles, even if they lack traditional qualifications.
  2. Political appointments may often reflect a person's desire to address issues they personally experienced or care about, rather than following conventional career paths or qualifications.
  3. It's important to consider how personal experiences and motivations can shape the effectiveness of individuals in political positions, as they may drive them to achieve specific goals more passionately.

My Highly Decoupled Election

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2755 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Election Strategies Party Dynamics
  1. In politics, some people see their side as both morally and intellectually superior, while others recognize flaws in their own group. Those who can see both sides more realistically might have an edge in understanding what's really happening.
  2. Political ads can sometimes focus on negative stereotypes rather than real issues, showing how some campaigns manipulate fears to gain support. This reflects a deeper issue within the political messaging from both major parties.
  3. The outcome of the election may not bring significant change, as either group represents a mix of flawed people and policies. Regardless of who wins, there's an opportunity to hope that either negative behavior or bad policies won't prevail.

Is there life after CNN? Chris Cillizza hopes so

Simon Owens's Media Newsletter • 623 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Impact Journalism Social media
  1. Getting fired can be really tough and emotional, and people can be unkind about it online. It’s normal to feel a mix of shame and anxiety after losing a job.
  2. After leaving CNN, Chris Cillizza started his own Substack newsletter and YouTube channel. He is trying to build a new career as an independent content creator and finds some success there.
  3. He misses the camaraderie of working in a newsroom but is learning that his new path can also provide fulfillment and revenue on his own terms.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 26.02.2025

steigan.no • 7 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Public Health Political Analysis International relations Public Opinion
  1. There has been a significant increase in deaths in younger individuals related to heart and neurological issues, particularly following the widespread COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Many are concerned that these vaccines may be linked to health crises.
  2. Ukraine has entered into a mineral agreement with the USA, promising to allocate 50% of its mineral revenue to a fund that could promote local projects, but this has raised concerns about Ukraine's sovereignty and economic dependency.
  3. Discussions about normalizing relations with Russia are intensifying, with indications that diplomatic talks may lead to a shift in how countries view security and cooperation in the region.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: American Idiots

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Governance Elections Public Policy Political Behavior
  1. There was a recent chaotic event in U.S. politics that hints at possible future issues under a second Trump administration. This involved key figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump arguing about a government funding bill.
  2. In the end, a deal was reached by some congressional leaders, but it showed how easily politicians can be swayed by people like Musk, even when they spread false information.
  3. Overall, the way politics is handled nowadays resembles a wrestling match more than a serious governing process, making it hard for voters to trust their leaders and their decisions.

Note: Primary Coverage in Loudoun County, Virginia

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5028 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election coverage Political Analysis
  1. Loudoun County, Virginia, witnessed significant political shifts from supporting Biden in 2020 to a narrower win for the Democratic governor in 2021 due to a school controversy.
  2. Media portrayed the unrest in Loudoun as a racist revolt and attributed it to white supremacy, while local observations presented a more complex and nuanced reality.
  3. The author plans to revisit the area for primary coverage regarding the upcoming Super Tuesday election, aiming to offer alternative perspectives to mainstream narratives.

Top Links 571 Trump's fiscal shock. The Latino working-class. The Mozambique tuna fishing fleet is for sale.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Fiscal policy Labor Issues International relations Economic Trends
  1. Trump's fiscal policies could have a significant impact, leading to major financial changes. It's important to think about what these changes could mean for the economy.
  2. The Latino working class plays a key role in shaping economic trends and discussions today. Understanding their perspectives can help in finding better policies.
  3. There are interesting developments in unexpected areas like the Mozambique tuna fishing fleet. This shows that global events can affect local economies in surprising ways.

The rise of political remoras

The Garden of Forking Paths • 2889 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Partisan Politics Government Election Integrity Republican party
  1. The concept of political remoras describes individuals who feed off larger, more powerful figures in politics.
  2. Elise Stefanik's political journey symbolizes the descent of the Republican Party into an anti-democratic stance.
  3. Stefanik's evolution from a bipartisan moderate to a supporter of Trump's rhetoric highlights a concerning shift in modern American politics.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-06 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Economic Policy Social Issues Public Opinion Cultural Commentary
  1. Educational approaches should blend economic theories with historical context. This helps students grasp how past events shape current economic systems.
  2. To tackle gender disparities in birth rates, changing perceptions about motherhood and fatherhood is essential. Men need to support women more in their roles both at work and home.
  3. Inflation isn't solely linked to government spending; the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in managing it. Digital and global economic shifts complicate how we analyze these financial factors.

Weekend Update #114: The Year that Confirmed Russia Can Be Beaten

Phillips’s Newsletter • 183 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Political Analysis International relations Political Commentary
  1. The Ukrainian military showed strong resilience and has successfully gained ground against Russian forces, particularly through offensives like the Kursk Offensive.
  2. Russia's military has faced significant challenges, suffering high casualties and losing strategic territory despite seizing a small fraction of Ukraine's land.
  3. Support from the US and Europe is crucial for Ukraine's continued success, but there are concerns that political influences could hinder effective assistance.

THB 2024 Election Special

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 569 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Substack is offering some engaged free subscribers a chance to try paid subscriptions at no cost, which is a great opportunity for users.
  2. The creator is exploring new ways to engage with followers through Substack Notes and other platforms amidst changes in social media.
  3. There are discussions and predictions about the upcoming U.S. election, encouraging community interaction and insights from non-U.S. subscribers as well.

Can the decline of two-party politics be reversed?

Comment is Freed • 53 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Democracy Government Trust Party Politics
  1. Many people are losing faith in big political parties, and this is happening not just in one country but around the world.
  2. The current electoral system isn't helping this situation, as it can lead to low support for the winning party, making the government seem less legitimate.
  3. There's a need to explore how different voting systems might help rebuild trust in democracy and make majoritarian governments work better.

Why Trump Is Ukraine’s Best Hope for Peace

Nonzero Newsletter • 429 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis Conflict resolution Public Opinion
  1. Trump might be able to end the Ukraine war based on his strong will to resolve conflicts. He sees this as a chance to improve his reputation and political legacy.
  2. Some people worry Trump could worsen the situation in Ukraine due to his past actions and cabinet choices. They think cutting off support might make Putin less likely to end the war.
  3. Even though Trump hasn't shared a clear plan for peace, he believes discussions behind closed doors are better for finding a solution. There are signs that both Ukraine and Russia might be open to his ideas.

Self Re-Introduction – 2024 Edition

Interconnected • 231 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Public Policy Political Analysis Political History
  1. The writer has changed careers multiple times, starting in politics and then moving to tech and investing. This shows that it's possible to reinvent yourself and follow new passions.
  2. The newsletter covers important topics where technology, business, and geopolitics meet. It's a space for learning about how these areas influence each other.
  3. Becoming a premium member of the newsletter provides extra benefits, like in-depth investment analysis and personalized discussions. This can help readers gain more insights and connect with the writer.

Betting Markets

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Prediction Markets Political Analysis Government Policy
  1. Betting markets can predict election outcomes more accurately than polls. They quickly adjust based on new information, making them reliable for forecasting.
  2. Unlike traditional markets, prediction markets are less likely to be manipulated. Studies show attempts to influence them usually don't succeed, keeping the forecasts steady.
  3. Understanding how the market works is key. It gathers and shares information in a way that motivates accuracy, unlike traditional polling methods that can miss the mark.

How high will turnout be?

Silver Bulletin • 562 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis
  1. There is a sale on annual subscriptions, offering a 25% discount for new subscribers in a limited time. It's a great chance to join if you're interested.
  2. On Election Day, there will be a lot of data collection and model updates to predict outcomes. The team will run 80,000 simulations to get the best forecast possible.
  3. The predicted voter turnout is around 155.3 million, slightly lower than the last election, but still high compared to earlier years. How many people actually vote could really influence the results.

Are the Polls too Close to Be Trusted?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1755 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Statistical Methods
  1. Polls can often show very similar results, especially in tight races. This might indicate that pollsters are playing it safe and not reporting outlier results.
  2. There is a concern called 'herding' where polling companies avoid reporting unusual findings to not seem wrong. This can lead to less information available to the public.
  3. The lack of variation in polls today is unusual and might mean real voter sentiment is being missed, setting the stage for a surprise outcome in elections.

He Could Not Even Wait Until The Inauguration

Phillips’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis Public Opinion Leadership
  1. Trump's tough talk on China is seen as a facade, as he has shown favoritism towards President Xi and criticized Taiwan.
  2. He has publicly doubted Taiwan's value as an ally, arguing that they should pay for U.S. defense.
  3. Many people were misled by Trump's claims, as they did not want to believe his real stance towards China and Taiwan.

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

Silver Bulletin • 536 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Election forecasting
  1. Early voting results can be misleading and not represent the final election outcomes. This means you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously.
  2. Different states can show very different patterns in early voting, making it hard to predict actual election results based on early votes alone.
  3. Polling errors can be huge when it comes to early votes, sometimes off by more than 14 points, which is significantly worse than traditional polling standards.

Top Links 565 Trump and chips. The zama zama crisis in South Africa. China's great lift campaign and Algeria in the archive.

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government International relations Political Analysis
  1. Donald Trump has raised concerns about Taiwan's influence on America's chip industry. He is critical of the CHIPS Act designed to support the semiconductor industry.
  2. There are ongoing issues in South Africa related to illegal mining, commonly referred to as the zama zama crisis. This problem affects both the economy and safety in those areas.
  3. China is promoting a major campaign to improve its infrastructure and economy, often referred to as the great lift campaign. This initiative aims to enhance development and connect regions more effectively.

See the World Accurately

Interconnected • 354 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Governance Public Policy Political Analysis International relations
  1. Seeing the world accurately is important for investors; it's easy to get lost in wishful thinking. Understanding reality helps make better decisions.
  2. Trump and Obama had similar strategies in their electoral victories, but they aim to govern differently, with Obama favoring institutions and Trump challenging them. This difference is crucial for the political landscape.
  3. China's economic policies are largely based on internal issues, not influenced by US elections. Their approach to managing the economy is quite different and focuses more on state control and gradual adjustments.

The Republican Party is Doomed

Tracing Woodgrains • 2673 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political trends Conservative movement
  1. Republicans are losing capacity to run institutions beyond elections due to age and education polarization
  2. The political divide among young, educated professionals is shifting towards liberals and socialists rather than Republicans and Democrats
  3. Republicans lack talent in governance compared to Democrats, even in the conservative intellectual sphere

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE PRESIDENTS WE ELECT

Seymour Hersh • 83 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Presidency Political History Political Analysis
  1. Presidents can be surprising; it's hard to know if they will promote peace or conflict. Actions can differ from what they say during elections.
  2. Former presidents can influence current events, and new leaders may work together for peace despite their past differences.
  3. Historical examples show that popular figures may not always act in ways that align with their public personas. It's important to critically assess their actions.

The Genocide Cafe Does Not Get To Play Villain & Saviour, When Only The Public Will be Punished.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 12 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Trade Policies Government Accountability International relations
  1. Political tariffs can act like sanctions, leading to conflicts and affecting the public while politicians remain unscathed. It's important to recognize how these actions can impact everyday people.
  2. Trade agreements like NAFTA have hurt Canada and Mexico, creating imbalanced economic conditions and leading to exploitation. Many workers suffer due to unfair practices that keep them in poverty.
  3. The ongoing political drama often distracts from real issues, such as the humanitarian crises caused by conflict. It's crucial to stay informed about how these decisions affect civilians and the broader implications.

Weekend Update #110: Ukraine and the Degradation of Russian Power

Phillips’s Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Military Strategy Political Analysis Geopolitics Media Critique
  1. Russian claims of major gains in Ukraine are misleading. They've taken tiny areas compared to the vast size of Ukraine, while suffering heavy losses.
  2. The situation in Syria shows that Russia is struggling and can't maintain its influence there. This failure reflects their weakened power since the war in Ukraine began.
  3. The narrative of an imminent Ukrainian collapse is not supported by facts. It’s important to look at the bigger picture instead of believing sensational reports.

Will Reform Kill the Tory Party?

Comment is Freed • 109 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Political Analysis Leadership Public Opinion
  1. The current political landscape shows a lack of confidence in the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, with people even betting on Nigel Farage as a potential Prime Minister candidate. This reflects a growing dissatisfaction within the party.
  2. Reform Party has gained attention with some wins in local elections and defections from former Tory MPs, suggesting they may become a more serious competitor against the Tories.
  3. The Tory Party is facing increased pressure and vulnerability, especially among younger voters, making it possible for another party to challenge their position as the main party on the right.