The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics
AI Snake Oil 398 implied HN points 27 Feb 24
  1. The paper on the societal impact of open foundation models clarifies the discrepancy in claims about openness's societal effects, examines the benefits like transparency and empowering research, and proposes a risk evaluation framework for comparing risks of open vs. closed foundation models and existing technologies.
  2. The framework for risk assessment in the paper outlines steps like threat identification, evaluating existing risks and defenses, and determining the marginal risk of open foundation models. It aims to provide a structured approach to analyzing risks associated with open foundation models.
  3. By analyzing benefits, such as distribution of decision-making power, innovation, scientific research facilitation, and transparency, the paper sheds light on the advantages of open foundation models and offers recommendations for developers, researchers, regulators, and policymakers to navigate the landscape effectively.
School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports 99 implied HN points 16 Feb 24
  1. Emergency management exercises help test preparedness for various emergencies, like shootings at school events.
  2. Most school shootings stem from escalated disputes, not deliberate attacks targeting students.
  3. School officials need comprehensive planning beyond 'active shooter' strategies to effectively respond to emergencies.
Gordian Knot News 205 implied HN points 27 Feb 24
  1. Pursuing safety in a cost-effective way is crucial to prevent harm and save lives.
  2. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model, while used for regulatory purposes, can come with enormous costs to humanity due to its over-conservatism.
  3. Focusing solely on minimizing radiation exposure without considering other costs may lead to unnecessary harm and consequences, such as deadly evacuations and ruined lives.
Warden Capital 196 implied HN points 15 May 23
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.
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Weight and Healthcare 499 implied HN points 03 Sep 22
  1. Weight loss surgeries pose significant risks and often lead to long-term, severe side effects that affect quality of life, with questionable long-term weight loss outcomes.
  2. Various types of weight loss surgeries, like gastric balloon, gastric banding, gastric sleeve, and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, have specific risks and complications associated with them.
  3. The belief underlying weight loss surgeries places a high value on making individuals thinner, risking their lives and quality of life without ensuring long-term health improvements.
Musings on Markets 379 implied HN points 12 Feb 23
  1. Country risk affects investments everywhere, not just in emerging markets. Every country has its own level of risk, which is important for investors to understand.
  2. Investors need to look beyond just company performance and consider how a country's situation influences their investments. Government actions and country stability matter a lot.
  3. Assessing country risk involves looking at different factors like political stability and economic conditions. Measures like sovereign ratings and CDS spreads help evaluate this risk.
Musings on Markets 359 implied HN points 28 Feb 23
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.
School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports 59 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. When school staff are armed, simple disputes could lead to dangerous outcomes like shootings.
  2. Lockdown procedures in schools may not effectively keep students safe in real-world shooting scenarios.
  3. Implementing policies allowing school staff to carry firearms requires thorough risk assessment and clear guidelines for the use of force.
Resilient Cyber 219 implied HN points 31 Jul 23
  1. EPSS 3.0 helps security teams focus on the vulnerabilities that are most likely to be exploited soon. This makes managing vulnerabilities easier and more efficient.
  2. Many organizations struggle to fix all their vulnerabilities and often end up wasting time on those that are rarely exploited. EPSS aims to change that by identifying threats more accurately.
  3. The new version of EPSS shows a big improvement in predicting which vulnerabilities are at risk. This means companies can spend less time on unimportant issues and focus on what really matters.
KCKlatt’s Substack 219 implied HN points 02 Jul 23
  1. Aspartame has been classified as 'possibly carcinogenic' by the IARC, meaning there's some evidence it might cause cancer, but it's not conclusive. This classification can create confusion about actual cancer risks.
  2. It's important to understand the difference between hazard and risk. Just because something is identified as a hazard doesn’t mean it will definitely cause harm in normal consumption amounts.
  3. IARC's ruling stirs up fear without clear guidance on safe consumption levels. Consumers need clear communication about risks when it comes to food additives like aspartame.
inexactscience 59 implied HN points 04 Mar 24
  1. A famous bet involving coin flips shows how people's risk preferences can be inconsistent. People might reject a single gamble but accept multiple repeats because they think it lowers their risk.
  2. The original advice about investing suggests buying stocks when young and bonds as you age. However, Samuelson's argument raises doubts about this common belief, challenging how we think about risk.
  3. The idea of loss aversion helps explain why people might choose to repeat risky bets. People tend to feel the pain of losing money more than the joy of gaining, which can lead to seemingly irrational decisions.
The Wolf of Harcourt Street 339 implied HN points 24 Mar 23
  1. MercadoLibre (MELI) is a Latin American e-commerce giant with remarkable growth, experiencing over 4,000% return in 16 years since its IPO.
  2. MELI's success is driven by a strong ecosystem of online commerce, digital payments, logistics, and advertising solutions.
  3. The company faces risks like regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and increasing competition, but has growth opportunities in the unbanked market and logistics services.
Hardcore Software 238 implied HN points 15 May 23
  1. Debates exist on whether current AI developments pose new risks or just confirm existing concerns.
  2. Balancing precautionary measures with technological progress is challenging, especially when systems are inaccurate but advancing.
  3. There is a push for strict regulations to prevent AI harm, but some recommend proactive risk mitigation rather than outright bans.
DeFi Education 679 implied HN points 27 Jan 22
  1. Alpha is about making more money than a standard benchmark like the S&P 500. If you earn more than this benchmark, you have positive alpha.
  2. Beta measures how much an investment's price changes compared to a benchmark. A beta of 1 means it moves the same way as the benchmark, while higher or lower numbers show more volatility.
  3. In the crypto world, it's important to compare your gains against Bitcoin and understand how cryptocurrencies are becoming more similar to stocks over time. This can affect how much risk you take.
Navigating AI Risks 117 implied HN points 17 Jul 23
  1. The UK's £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce should develop a risk assessment methodology for extreme risks from AI
  2. The taskforce should demonstrate current and forecast near-term risks through risk scaling laws
  3. It's important for the taskforce to comprehensively assess the state-of-the-art open source large language model (LLM) for risks
Concepts of Finance 🧠 219 implied HN points 23 Mar 23
  1. A bond is like an IOU. When you buy one, you're lending money to a government or company for interest over time.
  2. There are different types of bonds, like government bonds for public projects and corporate bonds for business funding.
  3. Bonds have important terms like issuer, coupon rate, and maturity date, which help determine how they work and what investors earn.
Gordian Knot News 212 implied HN points 04 May 23
  1. Nuclear power can be more cost-effective than traditional sources like coal plants.
  2. Naive LCOE may not accurately represent the true cost of nuclear energy due to fluctuations in demand and the need for backup.
  3. Key challenges for nuclear power include regulatory risk, construction risk, and ensuring liability for unplanned outages and radiation releases.
Investing 101 110 implied HN points 09 Mar 24
  1. People often use in-group thinking as an 'intellectual seat belt' to feel safe and avoid critically evaluating their beliefs.
  2. Being open to being wrong promotes the pursuit of truth, as it challenges existing beliefs and pressures ideas for improvement.
  3. Questioning mainstream beliefs and pursuing wrongness can reveal potential weaknesses, leading to a deeper understanding and pursuit of truth.
Logging the World 99 implied HN points 18 Dec 22
  1. The idea of COVID risks changing over time due to factors like vaccination and new variants must be understood.
  2. The concept of Long COVID being like taking a risk with 'Russian roulette' might not accurately represent the real-world data.
  3. Severe Long COVID conversion rates don't seem to be as high as initially expected, indicating the situation is different than a constant risk per infection.
The Ruffian 196 implied HN points 01 Apr 23
  1. Many experts are concerned about the potential existential threat posed by artificial intelligence.
  2. The likelihood of AI catastrophe varies among AI researchers, with estimates ranging from 1% to 33%.
  3. AI has the potential to be a larger existential threat to humanity than climate change, as it may result in scenarios where human survival is at stake.
Who is Robert Malone 19 implied HN points 19 Dec 24
  1. The threat from Avian Influenza is considered low, similar to previous assessments. Recent cases mostly involve those working closely with infected animals.
  2. There is a concern about how fear and misinformation in the media can influence public perception of health threats. This can lead to unnecessary panic or government responses.
  3. California's state of emergency regarding bird flu may be influenced by interests in the state's testing and monitoring industry rather than actual health risks.
Steve Kirsch's newsletter 8 implied HN points 06 Feb 25
  1. There was a significant increase in death reports after the COVID vaccine was given, over 100 times higher than normal for other vaccines. This raises questions about vaccine safety.
  2. The number of death reports linked with the COVID vaccine is way higher compared to all other vaccines combined, suggesting something might be unusual with the COVID vaccine.
  3. Healthcare providers are required to report any deaths they suspect are related to vaccines, but many have reported difficulties and frustrations with the reporting process, indicating a possible problem with the system.
Resilient Cyber 79 implied HN points 22 May 23
  1. Many organizations don't clearly define their risk tolerance in cybersecurity, impacting their ability to manage risks effectively. If a company doesn't know what risks it faces, it can't protect itself properly.
  2. There's a significant gap in measuring and understanding risks, especially with the rise of cloud services and software. Organizations often struggle to keep track of what software and hardware they use, leading to hidden vulnerabilities.
  3. Organizations are facing a backlog of vulnerabilities that they can't keep up with. If too many risks are left unresolved, it raises questions about their actual risk appetite and ability to protect themselves.
Steve Kirsch's newsletter 8 implied HN points 25 Jan 25
  1. The vaccines may have caused more COVID cases and deaths than they helped prevent. Data shows that vaccinated individuals had higher case rates during 2021 and 2022.
  2. Some studies suggest that vaccines may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes, like myocarditis and all-cause mortality, especially with certain brands.
  3. There is ongoing debate and skepticism surrounding vaccine safety, with some polls indicating that a significant number of people believe vaccines have contributed to deaths similar to COVID itself.
Rod’s Blog 39 implied HN points 26 Sep 23
  1. Increase the cost of compromising an identity by banning common passwords, enforcing multi-factor authentication, and blocking legacy authentication.
  2. Detect threats through user behavior anomalies by ensuring event logging and data retention and by leveraging User and Entity Behavioral Analytics.
  3. Assess identity risk by conducting penetration tests, password spray tests, and simulated phishing campaigns to strengthen security controls.
Musings on Markets 179 implied HN points 19 Mar 22
  1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a lot of instability in financial markets, affecting bond and equity prices. Many investors are worried about defaults and have pulled back from investing.
  2. Commodity prices, especially oil and gas, have surged due to the ongoing conflict, further impacting inflation expectations. This rise in prices can strain economies globally.
  3. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with people feeling more uncertain about the economy. If consumers spend less, it could lead to slower economic growth in the US and Europe.
Unreported Truths 48 implied HN points 19 Jan 24
  1. A study showed that giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behaviors in their offspring.
  2. Pregnant women were excluded from the initial vaccine trials, but they have been strongly encouraged to get the shots due to Covid risks associated with pregnancy.
  3. Understanding the potential impact of vaccines on autism and brain changes in offspring would require extensive and costly research.
Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ 19 implied HN points 14 Nov 23
  1. Look at past examples to help understand new situations. Historical contexts can give insights that make tough decisions easier.
  2. Adjust the reward system to make the risks of wrong decisions feel less daunting. This allows for more exploration without the fear of huge penalties.
  3. Use anonymous voting to find out what people really think. This can reveal hidden concerns that might not come up in open discussions.
Irregular Thoughts 19 implied HN points 30 Mar 23
  1. Elon Musk and experts call for a pause in developing powerful AI systems to assess risks and benefits.
  2. AI is just software processing data and spitting out results; it doesn't think or make autonomous decisions.
  3. Some AI models like ChatGPT and Bard support a pause in AI development to ensure systems are not harmful to humans.
Trusted 19 implied HN points 26 Jun 23
  1. In the near-term, the risk of AI causing extinction is extremely unlikely based on current knowledge.
  2. In the long-term, the risk of extinction from AI is higher but uncertain, requiring more research and caution.
  3. Efforts to reduce uncertainty about AI risks are crucial, but hasty actions could potentially do more harm than good.
Klement on Investing 3 implied HN points 06 Feb 25
  1. Political stability makes a country more attractive for investments. When governments are stable, investors feel more secure putting their money there.
  2. Economic Policy Uncertainty can hurt investment. High levels of uncertainty about policies lead to lower returns and make investors hesitant.
  3. Recent research shows a drop in foreign investments during times of high policy uncertainty. Countries like the UK saw many foreign investors pull out after political events like Brexit.