The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

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On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models

AI Snake Oil • 398 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Societal Impact Risk Assessment Regulation
  1. The paper on the societal impact of open foundation models clarifies the discrepancy in claims about openness's societal effects, examines the benefits like transparency and empowering research, and proposes a risk evaluation framework for comparing risks of open vs. closed foundation models and existing technologies.
  2. The framework for risk assessment in the paper outlines steps like threat identification, evaluating existing risks and defenses, and determining the marginal risk of open foundation models. It aims to provide a structured approach to analyzing risks associated with open foundation models.
  3. By analyzing benefits, such as distribution of decision-making power, innovation, scientific research facilitation, and transparency, the paper sheds light on the advantages of open foundation models and offers recommendations for developers, researchers, regulators, and policymakers to navigate the landscape effectively.

Learning from KC Chiefs Parade: Free virtual exercise for shootings at school events

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 99 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness School Safety Emergency Management Training Risk Assessment Crisis response
  1. Emergency management exercises help test preparedness for various emergencies, like shootings at school events.
  2. Most school shootings stem from escalated disputes, not deliberate attacks targeting students.
  3. School officials need comprehensive planning beyond 'active shooter' strategies to effectively respond to emergencies.

LNT is prudent.

Gordian Knot News • 205 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🔬 Science Radiation Regulation Risk Assessment Public Health Nuclear power
  1. Pursuing safety in a cost-effective way is crucial to prevent harm and save lives.
  2. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model, while used for regulatory purposes, can come with enormous costs to humanity due to its over-conservatism.
  3. Focusing solely on minimizing radiation exposure without considering other costs may lead to unnecessary harm and consequences, such as deadly evacuations and ruined lives.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.
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Reader Question - Are All Weight Loss Surgeries Equally Risky?

Weight and Healthcare • 499 implied HN points • 03 Sep 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Informed consent
  1. Weight loss surgeries pose significant risks and often lead to long-term, severe side effects that affect quality of life, with questionable long-term weight loss outcomes.
  2. Various types of weight loss surgeries, like gastric balloon, gastric banding, gastric sleeve, and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, have specific risks and complications associated with them.
  3. The belief underlying weight loss surgeries places a high value on making individuals thinner, risking their lives and quality of life without ensuring long-term health improvements.

Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Country risk affects investments everywhere, not just in emerging markets. Every country has its own level of risk, which is important for investors to understand.
  2. Investors need to look beyond just company performance and consider how a country's situation influences their investments. Government actions and country stability matter a lot.
  3. Assessing country risk involves looking at different factors like political stability and economic conditions. Measures like sovereign ratings and CDS spreads help evaluate this risk.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Debt Management Corporate Finance Investment strategy Risk Assessment Economic Trends
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

Wild fight between teacher and school security has implications for arming staff

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 59 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🚌 Education School Safety Risk Assessment
  1. When school staff are armed, simple disputes could lead to dangerous outcomes like shootings.
  2. Lockdown procedures in schools may not effectively keep students safe in real-world shooting scenarios.
  3. Implementing policies allowing school staff to carry firearms requires thorough risk assessment and clear guidelines for the use of force.

A look at the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) 3.0

Resilient Cyber • 219 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Vulnerability Management Data Analysis Risk Assessment Software Development
  1. EPSS 3.0 helps security teams focus on the vulnerabilities that are most likely to be exploited soon. This makes managing vulnerabilities easier and more efficient.
  2. Many organizations struggle to fix all their vulnerabilities and often end up wasting time on those that are rarely exploited. EPSS aims to change that by identifying threats more accurately.
  3. The new version of EPSS shows a big improvement in predicting which vulnerabilities are at risk. This means companies can spend less time on unimportant issues and focus on what really matters.

IARC: Can't Be Aspar-Tamed

KCKlatt’s Substack • 219 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Food Safety Nutrition Cancer Research Risk Assessment
  1. Aspartame has been classified as 'possibly carcinogenic' by the IARC, meaning there's some evidence it might cause cancer, but it's not conclusive. This classification can create confusion about actual cancer risks.
  2. It's important to understand the difference between hazard and risk. Just because something is identified as a hazard doesn’t mean it will definitely cause harm in normal consumption amounts.
  3. IARC's ruling stirs up fear without clear guidance on safe consumption levels. Consumers need clear communication about risks when it comes to food additives like aspartame.

Does a hundred wrongs make one right?

inexactscience • 59 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Behavioral Economics Investment Strategies Risk Assessment Decision Theory
  1. A famous bet involving coin flips shows how people's risk preferences can be inconsistent. People might reject a single gamble but accept multiple repeats because they think it lowers their risk.
  2. The original advice about investing suggests buying stocks when young and bonds as you age. However, Samuelson's argument raises doubts about this common belief, challenging how we think about risk.
  3. The idea of loss aversion helps explain why people might choose to repeat risky bets. People tend to feel the pain of losing money more than the joy of gaining, which can lead to seemingly irrational decisions.

MercadoLibre, Inc Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Financial Performance Business Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. MercadoLibre (MELI) is a Latin American e-commerce giant with remarkable growth, experiencing over 4,000% return in 16 years since its IPO.
  2. MELI's success is driven by a strong ecosystem of online commerce, digital payments, logistics, and advertising solutions.
  3. The company faces risks like regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and increasing competition, but has growth opportunities in the unbanked market and logistics services.

205. Regulating AI: Is being proactive now the right first step?

Hardcore Software • 238 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Ethics Legislation Risk Assessment Innovation
  1. Debates exist on whether current AI developments pose new risks or just confirm existing concerns.
  2. Balancing precautionary measures with technological progress is challenging, especially when systems are inaccurate but advancing.
  3. There is a push for strict regulations to prevent AI harm, but some recommend proactive risk mitigation rather than outright bans.

Alfa Leak: What is Alpha?

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
🔮 Crypto Investing Market Analysis Asset management Risk Assessment DeFi
  1. Alpha is about making more money than a standard benchmark like the S&P 500. If you earn more than this benchmark, you have positive alpha.
  2. Beta measures how much an investment's price changes compared to a benchmark. A beta of 1 means it moves the same way as the benchmark, while higher or lower numbers show more volatility.
  3. In the crypto world, it's important to compare your gains against Bitcoin and understand how cryptocurrencies are becoming more similar to stocks over time. This can affect how much risk you take.

What should the UK’s £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce do?

Navigating AI Risks • 117 implied HN points • 17 Jul 23
🕹 Technology AI Policy Risk Assessment
  1. The UK's £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce should develop a risk assessment methodology for extreme risks from AI
  2. The taskforce should demonstrate current and forecast near-term risks through risk scaling laws
  3. It's important for the taskforce to comprehensively assess the state-of-the-art open source large language model (LLM) for risks

What is a bond?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bonds Investments Market Analysis Financial Education Risk Assessment
  1. A bond is like an IOU. When you buy one, you're lending money to a government or company for interest over time.
  2. There are different types of bonds, like government bonds for public projects and corporate bonds for business funding.
  3. Bonds have important terms like issuer, coupon rate, and maturity date, which help determine how they work and what investors earn.

What is nuclear's should-cost?

Gordian Knot News • 212 implied HN points • 04 May 23
🔬 Science Nuclear Energy Regulation Cost Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. Nuclear power can be more cost-effective than traditional sources like coal plants.
  2. Naive LCOE may not accurately represent the true cost of nuclear energy due to fluctuations in demand and the need for backup.
  3. Key challenges for nuclear power include regulatory risk, construction risk, and ensuring liability for unplanned outages and radiation releases.

Intellectual Seat Belts

Investing 101 • 110 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💼 Business Investing Company Building Beliefs Ideas Risk Assessment
  1. People often use in-group thinking as an 'intellectual seat belt' to feel safe and avoid critically evaluating their beliefs.
  2. Being open to being wrong promotes the pursuit of truth, as it challenges existing beliefs and pressures ideas for improvement.
  3. Questioning mainstream beliefs and pursuing wrongness can reveal potential weaknesses, leading to a deeper understanding and pursuit of truth.

Long run Long Covid post

Logging the World • 99 implied HN points • 18 Dec 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Long Covid Vaccination Data Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The idea of COVID risks changing over time due to factors like vaccination and new variants must be understood.
  2. The concept of Long COVID being like taking a risk with 'Russian roulette' might not accurately represent the real-world data.
  3. Severe Long COVID conversion rates don't seem to be as high as initially expected, indicating the situation is different than a constant risk per infection.

FLASHPOINTS #10: A.I. risk for dummies (or, why we should worry less about climate change and more about killer algorithms)

The Ruffian • 196 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Future Tech Ethics Risk Assessment
  1. Many experts are concerned about the potential existential threat posed by artificial intelligence.
  2. The likelihood of AI catastrophe varies among AI researchers, with estimates ranging from 1% to 33%.
  3. AI has the potential to be a larger existential threat to humanity than climate change, as it may result in scenarios where human survival is at stake.

The DEATH safety signals in VAERS were obvious if anyone looked

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Public Health Health data Risk Assessment
  1. There was a significant increase in death reports after the COVID vaccine was given, over 100 times higher than normal for other vaccines. This raises questions about vaccine safety.
  2. The number of death reports linked with the COVID vaccine is way higher compared to all other vaccines combined, suggesting something might be unusual with the COVID vaccine.
  3. Healthcare providers are required to report any deaths they suspect are related to vaccines, but many have reported difficulties and frustrations with the reporting process, indicating a possible problem with the system.

Risk Tolerance & Raising the Technical Debt Ceiling

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Data Management Risk Assessment Software Development
  1. Many organizations don't clearly define their risk tolerance in cybersecurity, impacting their ability to manage risks effectively. If a company doesn't know what risks it faces, it can't protect itself properly.
  2. There's a significant gap in measuring and understanding risks, especially with the rise of cloud services and software. Organizations often struggle to keep track of what software and hardware they use, leading to hidden vulnerabilities.
  3. Organizations are facing a backlog of vulnerabilities that they can't keep up with. If too many risks are left unresolved, it raises questions about their actual risk appetite and ability to protect themselves.

The latest round in the $2M debate

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination Policy Debate Data Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The vaccines may have caused more COVID cases and deaths than they helped prevent. Data shows that vaccinated individuals had higher case rates during 2021 and 2022.
  2. Some studies suggest that vaccines may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes, like myocarditis and all-cause mortality, especially with certain brands.
  3. There is ongoing debate and skepticism surrounding vaccine safety, with some polls indicating that a significant number of people believe vaccines have contributed to deaths similar to COVID itself.

Microsoft Sentinel SOC 101: How to Detect and Mitigate Credential Reuse Attacks with Microsoft Sentinel

Rod’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Data Analytics Threat Detection Risk Assessment
  1. Increase the cost of compromising an identity by banning common passwords, enforcing multi-factor authentication, and blocking legacy authentication.
  2. Detect threats through user behavior anomalies by ensuring event logging and data retention and by leveraging User and Entity Behavioral Analytics.
  3. Assess identity risk by conducting penetration tests, password spray tests, and simulated phishing campaigns to strengthen security controls.

Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets • 179 implied HN points • 19 Mar 22
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Impact Risk Assessment
  1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a lot of instability in financial markets, affecting bond and equity prices. Many investors are worried about defaults and have pulled back from investing.
  2. Commodity prices, especially oil and gas, have surged due to the ongoing conflict, further impacting inflation expectations. This rise in prices can strain economies globally.
  3. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with people feeling more uncertain about the economy. If consumers spend less, it could lead to slower economic growth in the US and Europe.

Winning the power to lose

world spirit sock stack • 3 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI safety Ethics Risk Assessment Future studies Philosophy
  1. Winning is not always about immediate power; it's about the real outcomes that come afterward. Sometimes, what seems like a win can lead to a bigger loss for everyone involved.
  2. When people want the same ultimate outcome, like a better future with AI, it’s better to focus on who is making the right choices rather than who has the most power.
  3. If one side pushes for something without considering reality, they might end up hurting everyone, including themselves. True success is about aligning efforts toward a common goal.

URGENT: Giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behavior in their young, a new study shows

Unreported Truths • 48 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Pregnancy Autism Research Risk Assessment
  1. A study showed that giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behaviors in their offspring.
  2. Pregnant women were excluded from the initial vaccine trials, but they have been strongly encouraged to get the shots due to Covid risks associated with pregnancy.
  3. Understanding the potential impact of vaccines on autism and brain changes in offspring would require extensive and costly research.

How to feel more certain in your strategic decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
💼 Business Strategy Decision-making Leadership Management Risk Assessment
  1. Look at past examples to help understand new situations. Historical contexts can give insights that make tough decisions easier.
  2. Adjust the reward system to make the risks of wrong decisions feel less daunting. This allows for more exploration without the fear of huge penalties.
  3. Use anonymous voting to find out what people really think. This can reveal hidden concerns that might not come up in open discussions.

Elon and the dangers of artificial ignorance

Irregular Thoughts • 19 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Development Risk Assessment Future implications
  1. Elon Musk and experts call for a pause in developing powerful AI systems to assess risks and benefits.
  2. AI is just software processing data and spitting out results; it doesn't think or make autonomous decisions.
  3. Some AI models like ChatGPT and Bard support a pause in AI development to ensure systems are not harmful to humans.

Trusted AI #007 - My thoughts on AI Existentialism

Trusted • 19 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🕹 Technology AI Existentialism Risk Assessment AGI Superintelligence
  1. In the near-term, the risk of AI causing extinction is extremely unlikely based on current knowledge.
  2. In the long-term, the risk of extinction from AI is higher but uncertain, requiring more research and caution.
  3. Efforts to reduce uncertainty about AI risks are crucial, but hasty actions could potentially do more harm than good.

Political stability is necessary to attract investments

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Economic Policy Market Trends Foreign Investment Risk Assessment
  1. Political stability makes a country more attractive for investments. When governments are stable, investors feel more secure putting their money there.
  2. Economic Policy Uncertainty can hurt investment. High levels of uncertainty about policies lead to lower returns and make investors hesitant.
  3. Recent research shows a drop in foreign investments during times of high policy uncertainty. Countries like the UK saw many foreign investors pull out after political events like Brexit.