The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Learning from KC Chiefs Parade: Free virtual exercise for shootings at school events

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 99 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Emergency management exercises help test preparedness for various emergencies, like shootings at school events.
  2. Most school shootings stem from escalated disputes, not deliberate attacks targeting students.
  3. School officials need comprehensive planning beyond 'active shooter' strategies to effectively respond to emergencies.

On the FLI AI-Risk Open Letter

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1523 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. The FLI AI-Risk Open Letter calls for a pause in training AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, sparking mixed reactions.
  2. The letter combines short-term concerns with existential risks, suggesting high standards that might act as a de facto ban on AI development.
  3. Despite its flaws, the letter sets the stage for cooperation and lays the groundwork for future discussions around AI safety and regulation.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Reader Question - Are All Weight Loss Surgeries Equally Risky?

Weight and Healthcare • 499 implied HN points • 03 Sep 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Weight loss surgeries pose significant risks and often lead to long-term, severe side effects that affect quality of life, with questionable long-term weight loss outcomes.
  2. Various types of weight loss surgeries, like gastric balloon, gastric banding, gastric sleeve, and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, have specific risks and complications associated with them.
  3. The belief underlying weight loss surgeries places a high value on making individuals thinner, risking their lives and quality of life without ensuring long-term health improvements.
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Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Country risk affects investments everywhere, not just in emerging markets. Every country has its own level of risk, which is important for investors to understand.
  2. Investors need to look beyond just company performance and consider how a country's situation influences their investments. Government actions and country stability matter a lot.
  3. Assessing country risk involves looking at different factors like political stability and economic conditions. Measures like sovereign ratings and CDS spreads help evaluate this risk.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

Wild fight between teacher and school security has implications for arming staff

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 59 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🚌 Education Risk Assessment
  1. When school staff are armed, simple disputes could lead to dangerous outcomes like shootings.
  2. Lockdown procedures in schools may not effectively keep students safe in real-world shooting scenarios.
  3. Implementing policies allowing school staff to carry firearms requires thorough risk assessment and clear guidelines for the use of force.

A look at the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) 3.0

Resilient Cyber • 219 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. EPSS 3.0 helps security teams focus on the vulnerabilities that are most likely to be exploited soon. This makes managing vulnerabilities easier and more efficient.
  2. Many organizations struggle to fix all their vulnerabilities and often end up wasting time on those that are rarely exploited. EPSS aims to change that by identifying threats more accurately.
  3. The new version of EPSS shows a big improvement in predicting which vulnerabilities are at risk. This means companies can spend less time on unimportant issues and focus on what really matters.

IARC: Can't Be Aspar-Tamed

KCKlatt’s Substack • 219 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. Aspartame has been classified as 'possibly carcinogenic' by the IARC, meaning there's some evidence it might cause cancer, but it's not conclusive. This classification can create confusion about actual cancer risks.
  2. It's important to understand the difference between hazard and risk. Just because something is identified as a hazard doesn’t mean it will definitely cause harm in normal consumption amounts.
  3. IARC's ruling stirs up fear without clear guidance on safe consumption levels. Consumers need clear communication about risks when it comes to food additives like aspartame.

Governing Risky Pandemic Research

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 549 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Experts can disagree on the risks and benefits of proposed research, impacting research sustainability and public trust.
  2. There are concerns about regulating research with pathogens due to potential risks and lack of consensus on what is considered risky.
  3. Suggestions for governing risky research include demonstrating clear research benefits, identifying alternative methods, preregistering research, indemnifying organizations, and implementing global norms.

Does a hundred wrongs make one right?

inexactscience • 59 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. A famous bet involving coin flips shows how people's risk preferences can be inconsistent. People might reject a single gamble but accept multiple repeats because they think it lowers their risk.
  2. The original advice about investing suggests buying stocks when young and bonds as you age. However, Samuelson's argument raises doubts about this common belief, challenging how we think about risk.
  3. The idea of loss aversion helps explain why people might choose to repeat risky bets. People tend to feel the pain of losing money more than the joy of gaining, which can lead to seemingly irrational decisions.

MercadoLibre, Inc Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. MercadoLibre (MELI) is a Latin American e-commerce giant with remarkable growth, experiencing over 4,000% return in 16 years since its IPO.
  2. MELI's success is driven by a strong ecosystem of online commerce, digital payments, logistics, and advertising solutions.
  3. The company faces risks like regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and increasing competition, but has growth opportunities in the unbanked market and logistics services.

I'm Not Worried About An AI Apocalypse

As Clay Awakens • 137 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Yudkowsky imagined a scenario akin to a 'vital force' discovery leading to an AI apocalypse.
  2. Speculating about AI risks and preemptive solutions can often be futile and even harmful.
  3. In a chaotic world, decision-making for preventing AI apocalypses is currently unpredictable and wasteful.

205. Regulating AI: Is being proactive now the right first step?

Hardcore Software • 238 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Debates exist on whether current AI developments pose new risks or just confirm existing concerns.
  2. Balancing precautionary measures with technological progress is challenging, especially when systems are inaccurate but advancing.
  3. There is a push for strict regulations to prevent AI harm, but some recommend proactive risk mitigation rather than outright bans.

Alfa Leak: What is Alpha?

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
🔮 Crypto Risk Assessment
  1. Alpha is about making more money than a standard benchmark like the S&P 500. If you earn more than this benchmark, you have positive alpha.
  2. Beta measures how much an investment's price changes compared to a benchmark. A beta of 1 means it moves the same way as the benchmark, while higher or lower numbers show more volatility.
  3. In the crypto world, it's important to compare your gains against Bitcoin and understand how cryptocurrencies are becoming more similar to stocks over time. This can affect how much risk you take.

What should the UK’s £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce do?

Navigating AI Risks • 117 implied HN points • 17 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. The UK's £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce should develop a risk assessment methodology for extreme risks from AI
  2. The taskforce should demonstrate current and forecast near-term risks through risk scaling laws
  3. It's important for the taskforce to comprehensively assess the state-of-the-art open source large language model (LLM) for risks

On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models

AI Snake Oil • 398 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. The paper on the societal impact of open foundation models clarifies the discrepancy in claims about openness's societal effects, examines the benefits like transparency and empowering research, and proposes a risk evaluation framework for comparing risks of open vs. closed foundation models and existing technologies.
  2. The framework for risk assessment in the paper outlines steps like threat identification, evaluating existing risks and defenses, and determining the marginal risk of open foundation models. It aims to provide a structured approach to analyzing risks associated with open foundation models.
  3. By analyzing benefits, such as distribution of decision-making power, innovation, scientific research facilitation, and transparency, the paper sheds light on the advantages of open foundation models and offers recommendations for developers, researchers, regulators, and policymakers to navigate the landscape effectively.

What is a bond?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. A bond is like an IOU. When you buy one, you're lending money to a government or company for interest over time.
  2. There are different types of bonds, like government bonds for public projects and corporate bonds for business funding.
  3. Bonds have important terms like issuer, coupon rate, and maturity date, which help determine how they work and what investors earn.

The Total Dose Cult

Gordian Knot News • 124 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Total dose of radiation can be misleading. It's not just about how much radiation someone gets, but also how quickly they receive it.
  2. People exposed to radiation over a long time can have different health risks compared to those who are exposed quickly. The way their body processes radiation can vary.
  3. When discussing radiation harm, it's important to consider the rate at which people are exposed. This helps to get a clearer understanding of potential risks.

Underestimating climate damage

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Risk Assessment
  1. Models that only use average temperature changes miss important effects and tend to underestimate economic damage from climate change.
  2. Higher average temperatures increase the chance of extreme heat waves and heavy precipitation, and these extreme events cause most of the economic harm.
  3. Including within-year temperature variation raises estimated damages a lot—roughly 13% more in temperate regions and about 47% more in continental climates—showing impacts differ greatly by region.

The Proactionary Principle

Extropic Thoughts • 78 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
📖 Philosophy Risk Assessment
  1. The Proactionary Principle encourages making decisions with foresight and embracing technological progress.
  2. Be objective and comprehensive when making decisions to ensure a structured and thorough approach.
  3. Prioritize risks effectively and make responses proportionate based on the severity and likelihood of potential consequences.

Long run Long Covid post

Logging the World • 99 implied HN points • 18 Dec 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. The idea of COVID risks changing over time due to factors like vaccination and new variants must be understood.
  2. The concept of Long COVID being like taking a risk with 'Russian roulette' might not accurately represent the real-world data.
  3. Severe Long COVID conversion rates don't seem to be as high as initially expected, indicating the situation is different than a constant risk per infection.

The Sequence Knowledge #550: Let's Talk About Safety Benchmarks

TheSequence • 42 implied HN points • 27 May 25
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Safety benchmarks are important tools that help evaluate AI systems. They make sure these systems are safe as they become more advanced.
  2. Different organizations have created their own frameworks to assess AI safety. Each framework focuses on different aspects of how AI systems can be safe.
  3. Understanding and using safety benchmarks is essential for responsible AI development. This helps manage risks and ensure that AI helps, rather than harms.

LNT is prudent.

Gordian Knot News • 205 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Pursuing safety in a cost-effective way is crucial to prevent harm and save lives.
  2. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model, while used for regulatory purposes, can come with enormous costs to humanity due to its over-conservatism.
  3. Focusing solely on minimizing radiation exposure without considering other costs may lead to unnecessary harm and consequences, such as deadly evacuations and ruined lives.

Why the NT in SNT?

Gordian Knot News • 95 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. The term 'No Threshold' in radiation discussions is important because it highlights that there is always some risk from radiation exposure, even at low levels. It's a reminder that we can't completely eliminate risk, just like every time we leave our homes.
  2. The current thinking on radiation risk, called Linear No Threshold (LNT), suggests that even small doses are harmful. However, real-life examples, like workers who handled radium, challenge this belief and show that low doses may not cause significant harm.
  3. Critics of LNT often focus on proving a specific threshold for safety, but this can weaken their argument. The idea that there’s a threshold is seen as a tactic that allows LNT to persist, even though it might not hold up against real evidence.

Risk Tolerance & Raising the Technical Debt Ceiling

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Many organizations don't clearly define their risk tolerance in cybersecurity, impacting their ability to manage risks effectively. If a company doesn't know what risks it faces, it can't protect itself properly.
  2. There's a significant gap in measuring and understanding risks, especially with the rise of cloud services and software. Organizations often struggle to keep track of what software and hardware they use, leading to hidden vulnerabilities.
  3. Organizations are facing a backlog of vulnerabilities that they can't keep up with. If too many risks are left unresolved, it raises questions about their actual risk appetite and ability to protect themselves.

The Radium Dial Painters and SNT

Gordian Knot News • 175 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. SNT is proposed as a replacement to LNT in radiation harm modeling, with a focus on individual dose rate profiles.
  2. SNT shows potential inaccuracies in predicting cancer incidences at different dose rates compared to LNT.
  3. SNT, while simpler and more conservative than LNT, may lead to overcompensation in some scenarios.

174 | The Nitty-Gritty of Risk Assessments | Food Waste Follow-up |

The Rotten Apple • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🍲 Food & Drink Risk Assessment
  1. A food safety risk assessment helps determine how likely it is for something harmful in food to make you sick. This process looks at the chance of illness and how serious it could be.
  2. Recent cases showed that salad can lead to food poisoning if it gets contaminated. In one incident, a salad caused many airplane passengers to fall ill due to a toxin from bacteria.
  3. A huge amount of food is wasted globally, especially at home. Efforts and resources are being shared to help people reduce food waste effectively.

Microsoft Sentinel SOC 101: How to Detect and Mitigate Credential Reuse Attacks with Microsoft Sentinel

Rod’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Increase the cost of compromising an identity by banning common passwords, enforcing multi-factor authentication, and blocking legacy authentication.
  2. Detect threats through user behavior anomalies by ensuring event logging and data retention and by leveraging User and Entity Behavioral Analytics.
  3. Assess identity risk by conducting penetration tests, password spray tests, and simulated phishing campaigns to strengthen security controls.

Portfolio Update & 3 Stocks I'm Comparing

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. The stock market isn't reacting strongly to geopolitical issues between Iran and Israel, which shows bullish behavior. It seems to be holding steady near all-time highs, suggesting investor confidence.
  2. The market has managed to ignore negative news, both from tariffs and geopolitical risks, proving to be resilient, like a 'teflon' stock market.
  3. There are three stocks being considered for potential purchase, and a decision will be made on whether one, none, or all three are worth buying.

Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets • 179 implied HN points • 19 Mar 22
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a lot of instability in financial markets, affecting bond and equity prices. Many investors are worried about defaults and have pulled back from investing.
  2. Commodity prices, especially oil and gas, have surged due to the ongoing conflict, further impacting inflation expectations. This rise in prices can strain economies globally.
  3. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with people feeling more uncertain about the economy. If consumers spend less, it could lead to slower economic growth in the US and Europe.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

Your Time Horizon

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Everyone has a different time horizon for their investments, which affects their financial decisions. For example, a young person saving for retirement will think long-term differently than someone close to retirement.
  2. Your time horizon influences your risk tolerance and how you should allocate your assets. It's important to know when you will need the money before making investment choices.
  3. When discussing investments with others, keep in mind that their time horizon may differ from yours. This can change how they view investment advice and decisions.

What is nuclear's should-cost?

Gordian Knot News • 212 implied HN points • 04 May 23
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Nuclear power can be more cost-effective than traditional sources like coal plants.
  2. Naive LCOE may not accurately represent the true cost of nuclear energy due to fluctuations in demand and the need for backup.
  3. Key challenges for nuclear power include regulatory risk, construction risk, and ensuring liability for unplanned outages and radiation releases.

Intellectual Seat Belts

Investing 101 • 110 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💼 Business Risk Assessment
  1. People often use in-group thinking as an 'intellectual seat belt' to feel safe and avoid critically evaluating their beliefs.
  2. Being open to being wrong promotes the pursuit of truth, as it challenges existing beliefs and pressures ideas for improvement.
  3. Questioning mainstream beliefs and pursuing wrongness can reveal potential weaknesses, leading to a deeper understanding and pursuit of truth.

FLASHPOINTS #10: A.I. risk for dummies (or, why we should worry less about climate change and more about killer algorithms)

The Ruffian • 196 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Many experts are concerned about the potential existential threat posed by artificial intelligence.
  2. The likelihood of AI catastrophe varies among AI researchers, with estimates ranging from 1% to 33%.
  3. AI has the potential to be a larger existential threat to humanity than climate change, as it may result in scenarios where human survival is at stake.

How to feel more certain in your strategic decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 19 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
💼 Business Risk Assessment
  1. Look at past examples to help understand new situations. Historical contexts can give insights that make tough decisions easier.
  2. Adjust the reward system to make the risks of wrong decisions feel less daunting. This allows for more exploration without the fear of huge penalties.
  3. Use anonymous voting to find out what people really think. This can reveal hidden concerns that might not come up in open discussions.