The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Microsoft Sentinel SOC 101: How to Detect and Mitigate Credential Reuse Attacks with Microsoft Sentinel

Rod’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Data Analytics Threat Detection Risk Assessment
  1. Increase the cost of compromising an identity by banning common passwords, enforcing multi-factor authentication, and blocking legacy authentication.
  2. Detect threats through user behavior anomalies by ensuring event logging and data retention and by leveraging User and Entity Behavioral Analytics.
  3. Assess identity risk by conducting penetration tests, password spray tests, and simulated phishing campaigns to strengthen security controls.

Long run Long Covid post

Logging the World • 99 implied HN points • 18 Dec 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Long Covid Vaccination Data Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The idea of COVID risks changing over time due to factors like vaccination and new variants must be understood.
  2. The concept of Long COVID being like taking a risk with 'Russian roulette' might not accurately represent the real-world data.
  3. Severe Long COVID conversion rates don't seem to be as high as initially expected, indicating the situation is different than a constant risk per infection.
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Trusted AI #007 - My thoughts on AI Existentialism

Trusted • 19 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🕹 Technology AI Existentialism Risk Assessment AGI Superintelligence
  1. In the near-term, the risk of AI causing extinction is extremely unlikely based on current knowledge.
  2. In the long-term, the risk of extinction from AI is higher but uncertain, requiring more research and caution.
  3. Efforts to reduce uncertainty about AI risks are crucial, but hasty actions could potentially do more harm than good.

Elon and the dangers of artificial ignorance

Irregular Thoughts • 19 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Development Risk Assessment Future implications
  1. Elon Musk and experts call for a pause in developing powerful AI systems to assess risks and benefits.
  2. AI is just software processing data and spitting out results; it doesn't think or make autonomous decisions.
  3. Some AI models like ChatGPT and Bard support a pause in AI development to ensure systems are not harmful to humans.

Who’s Responsible for the Toxic Train Disaster in East Palestine, Ohio?

The Status Kuo • 3 HN points • 16 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investigative Reporting Government Response Regulations Risk Assessment
  1. The blame game around the toxic train disaster in East Palestine, Ohio, has become highly political, with Republicans targeting the infrastructure bill and current administration.
  2. The ultimate responsibility for the disaster lies with Norfolk Southern, due to a combination of mechanical failures, inadequate safety measures, and regulatory loopholes.
  3. There is a need to revisit and strengthen regulations regarding the transportation of hazardous materials by rail to prioritize public safety over industry interests.

Black swans and Covid-19

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Mar 21
🔬 Science Pandemics Risk Assessment Infectious Diseases Vaccines Global impact
  1. Covid-19 was not truly a black swan event despite its extreme consequences, as a global pandemic was predictable based on historical precedent and scientific consensus.
  2. Several unexpected positive outcomes emerged during the pandemic, such as minimal surface transmission, limited spread outdoors, and the rapid development of effective vaccines.
  3. The pandemic's string of good luck should serve as a reminder of the unpredictability and potential severity of future global infectious disease events, urging caution and preparedness.

Why AI X-Risk Gets Overestimated

Abstraction • 2 HN points • 16 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Risk Assessment Artificial Intelligence Ethics Safety
  1. AI takeover requires a confluence of conditions that must align perfectly, making it less likely than some might think.
  2. AI might lack the motive to take over the world, as it may lack agency, self-preservation, or perfect alignment.
  3. AI could lack the means to successfully take over, as scaling limitations, diminishing returns to intelligence, and overwhelming complexity pose significant obstacles.

Are temperature checks a good screen?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 28 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Screening Symptoms Guidelines Risk Assessment
  1. Temperature checks can be a useful initial screening method for Covid-19, as fever is a common symptom among infected individuals.
  2. Precision and accuracy of temperature checks are crucial, as the specificity and prevalence can significantly impact the probability of having Covid-19.
  3. Human factors, like how people interpret and act on temperature readings, are important to consider when implementing screening measures.

When did we know enough to act?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Risk Assessment Public Health
  1. Acting early against a virus like COVID-19 is crucial to keeping it under control. Waiting too long can make it much harder to contain.
  2. Experts, like public health officials, were aware of the seriousness of the situation regarding the virus well before certain key dates - like the Wuhan lockdown.
  3. In the early stages of a pandemic, personal risk assessments may not be adequate, and governments should be proactive in imposing restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus.

Assess your Risk

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 19 May 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Preventive measures
  1. Assess both individual and societal risks when making decisions, particularly in a pandemic.
  2. Understand the facts about COVID-19 such as handwashing, social distancing, and mask-wearing to make informed decisions.
  3. Apply the facts to your situation, weigh the risks against benefits, mitigate risks, then decide what actions to take - whether it's about wearing masks outside, seeing family over holidays, or sending kids to summer camp.

Qualitative Factors

Business Breakdowns • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Risk Assessment Management
  1. Risk of permanent loss in investments should be limited by considering qualitative factors like management quality.
  2. A strong moat is essential to protect a business from competitors, with factors like brand, switching costs, and pricing power playing a key role.
  3. Pricing power can come from demand side (like brand) and customer acquisition side, which help in creating a robust value proposition that is hard to replicate.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) 's growing popularity with regulators & industries - A behind the scenes view

Beyond Harm • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🔬 Science Risk Assessment Physics Mathematics Regulation
  1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) predicts the 'frequency' of industrial accidents, but this can be misleading as it does not reveal how soon the next accident might occur.
  2. PRA has limitations due to its optimistic bias, which leads to under-predicting accident rates because it ignores important factors like climate change and technology wear-out.
  3. An alternative to PRA would be using Prescriptive Protection Design Requirements, which have been historically successful in ensuring safety without relying on probability mathematics.

The Proposal: Will you Red Team Me?

Locks and Leaks • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Management Risk Assessment Operations Leadership Communication
  1. The Red Team Proposal is crucial for gaining buy-in, being prepared, and protecting against potential issues during assessments.
  2. Including legal safeguards and seeking approvals help in showcasing professionalism and increasing the likelihood of approval from leadership.
  3. A well-prepared Red Team Proposal should contain components like introduction, prioritization, context, intelligence & analysis, timeline, TTPs, safety plan, and more, making it a vital document for a successful red team operation.

Credentials versus passports

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 28 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine distribution
  1. The distinction between a 'passport' and a 'credential' is important in managing individual risk and allowing economies to function with minimal restrictions.
  2. Denmark's digital app for showing negative test results, vaccinations, and previous infections can serve as a useful information substrate allowing markets to operate more effectively.
  3. There is value in using verified information as credentials rather than passports, as it provides organizations the flexibility to manage their own Covid-19 risks and policies.

What to make of AstraZeneca?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination COVID-19 Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine Hesitancy
  1. AstraZeneca has been linked to rare blood clot issues, particularly in younger individuals, presenting a challenge in vaccine distribution and risk assessment.
  2. The distribution of AstraZeneca vaccine is crucial due to its wide availability, but balancing the risk of blood clots against the benefits of vaccination is a complex task.
  3. Messaging around AstraZeneca vaccination plays a significant role in managing vaccine hesitancy and public perception, highlighting the need for a balanced approach and continual adjustment based on new information.

We can do better on pre-risk assessment

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Information Management Risk Assessment Data Collection
  1. Pre-risk assessment is crucial for better allocation of Covid-19 tests. Higher pre-risk means test results carry more weight.
  2. CDC's protocol for point-of-care tests at nursing homes considers pre-risk, but lacks specific numerical data. More granular information would enhance testing protocols.
  3. Contact tracing apps could be leveraged to assess pre-risk levels, aiding in more accurate test allocation without compromising privacy.

The Reopening Party

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Government Influence Consumer behavior Risk Assessment Safety measures
  1. People responded to government reopening by venturing out quickly, even more eagerly than they curtailed activities before lockdowns.
  2. The trusted government theory suggests that people trusted government information post-lockdown, but not pre-lockdown, leading to their swift return to activities.
  3. Alternative theories suggest that post-lockdown rush could be due to pent-up demand after restrictions, or due to perceived safety improvements like social distancing measures.

Give Thanks

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 23 Nov 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Risk Assessment Immunity
  1. Don't attend events if you have symptoms. Call a doctor and get tested to be sure.
  2. Vaccination and boosting significantly reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection and transmission.
  3. Consider safety measures indoors like rapid testing, ventilation, limited guests, and mask-wearing to reduce COVID-19 spread.