Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

The hottest Substack posts of Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

And their main takeaways

The "MurderBot" Apple TV Adaptation Is a Win...

192 implied HN points • 31 May 25
🎭️ Culture Literature Television Media Adaptation Science fiction
  1. The 'MurderBot' adaptation on Apple TV is getting great reviews for capturing the essence of its original character. People are excited to see a relatable robot with real feelings and challenges.
  2. The cast, especially Alexander Skarsgård as the lead, is praised for their performances. They bring depth to the characters, making viewers feel connected to them right away.
  3. The show is noted for its humor and heart, appealing to both fans of the books and new viewers. It's a unique take on science fiction that mixes action with emotional storytelling.

CROSSPOST: ALICE EVANS: Can YOU Uncover the Origins of Patriarchy?

153 implied HN points • 31 May 25
🎭️ Culture Gender Studies History Anthropology Art Society
  1. Gender hierarchies still exist today and are shaped by cultural beliefs about women's roles, particularly the idea that women should be kept secluded.
  2. Historical analysis of art and architecture can provide clues about how women's invisibility became a respected norm, especially following military conquests.
  3. It's important to be careful when interpreting ancient artifacts, as they represent only fragments of diverse cultures and may not reflect the whole picture.

ONE YEAR (& SIXTEEN YEARS) AGO ON GRASPING REALITY: The Panic of 1825

169 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Banking Economic Policy Financial Crisis Investment Monetary Systems
  1. The 1825 Panic marked a key moment in the development of modern central banking. It showed how banks can turn to a central authority for help during financial crises.
  2. The Bank of England stepped in during the 1825 financial turmoil to prevent a collapse of the banking system. This was a major shift, highlighting the importance of central banks in managing economic stability.
  3. The actions taken during the panic helped restore confidence in the financial system. When people began to trust that banks were safe again, the economy slowly recovered.

The "Wall Street Journal" Tells Us: Trump Takes Command of Inflation, Which Was Massively Unsatisfactory under Biden

1353 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Elections Economic Policy Media
  1. Recent inflation rates are slightly above the targets set by the Federal Reserve, but not alarmingly high. This suggests that there isn't an urgent need for drastic policy changes right now.
  2. There is skepticism about Trump's understanding of monetary policy and how he believes oil prices affect overall inflation. Many experts think he is outdated in his thinking.
  3. Trump's comments on inflation and interest rates may not seriously influence economic policy due to his advisor's stance on maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence.

Yes: This Is Worth Signing: Economists Who Are Neither Bought Nor Crazy Oppose Broad-Based Tariffs

1137 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Trade Policies Tariffs International relations
  1. Broad-based tariffs are generally not a good idea because they can harm the economy. Instead of helping, they often lead to higher prices and lower productivity.
  2. Historically, tariffs have not stopped the decline of manufacturing jobs in the U.S., which is mainly due to increased productivity and changes in demand. The economy is doing well even with trade deficits.
  3. Foreign investment is important for the U.S. economy, and tariffs can actually hurt growth. Successful economies attract foreign capital, which has helped the U.S. prosper throughout its history.
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PROJECT SYNDICATE: Trump's Smoke & Mirrors

884 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Media Studies Public Policy Trump administration Political Commentary
  1. Trump's actions often focus on getting attention rather than creating real change. Many of his plans are more about performance than effective policy.
  2. The media needs to separate Trump's true policies from his showmanship, but many outlets are caught up in the drama instead.
  3. Trump's potential policies could harm the economy, and it's crucial for clear information to be shared so the public can understand the impact.

NOTE TO SELF: TrumpChaos in a BREXIT Mirror

422 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic Impact Brexit Globalization
  1. Brexit caused a lot of chaos and hurt the UK economy significantly, with estimates of GDP loss ranging from 4% to over 10%. This shows how disruptive trade politics can really be.
  2. Trump's international trade policies seem to create similar pointless disruptions, slightly lessening the U.S. economy's ties with its trading partners but not helping in the long run.
  3. There are questions about how the damage from Trump's trade policies compares to Brexit's impact, and it's important to analyze the economic integration and results for both the U.S. and UK.

ONE IMAGE: 40 Million Canadians

607 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geography Demographics Economics Population Policy
  1. About 90% of Canadians live close to the US border, which influences their economy and lifestyle. Most of Canada's population is concentrated in big cities like Toronto and Montreal.
  2. Canada's population density is quite low, with only 4 people per square kilometer outside urban areas. This means there are many large, empty spaces in the country.
  3. Canadians have a relatively high life expectancy and are mostly bilingual in English and French. About a quarter of the population are visible minorities, showcasing diversity.

Blame the Right-Wing Noise Machine, Not the Facts on the Ground, for Voters' Dismay About the Economy

338 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis Economic Policy Media influence Public Perception
  1. Voters are unhappy about the economy, but it's mainly because they are influenced by misinformation from certain media sources. The reality of the economy isn't as bad as many believe.
  2. The official statistics show a certain level of unemployment and underemployment, but this has always been a part of the economic landscape. People misunderstand these numbers and feel worse than the data suggests.
  3. Many believe the economy is struggling due to flawed statistics, but this misunderstanding has been constant. The data doesn't paint a complete picture of people's real experiences in the job market.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Reviewing Alan Furst's Novel "Dark Star"

307 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
📚 Literature Fiction Reviews History Arts Culture
  1. Alan Furst's novel 'Dark Star' is praised as one of the best books about Europe in the 1930s. It captures the tense atmosphere of that time better than many historical accounts.
  2. The story revolves around a character named Andre Szara, who navigates the dangers of living under oppressive regimes while trying to survive and help others.
  3. The novel highlights the moral ambiguities of the era, where allies and enemies were often blurred, making readers think about the complexities of political choices.

REVIEW: Small People Dealing with Looming Fascism Novel Watch

292 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
📚 Literature Book review Fiction History Politics Cultural Commentary
  1. Jo Walton's 'Small Change' trilogy is a really engaging read that reflects current societal issues. It explores themes of resistance against rising fascism.
  2. The books show how characters deal with fear and the threat of losing their freedom. They navigate personal struggles in a world turning towards tyranny.
  3. By blending genres like mystery and historical fiction, Walton creates a unique narrative that challenges readers to think about their own freedoms and choices.

Kayfabe, Cruelty, Sanewashing, Hierarchy, Musk, Bannon, & Trump

415 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Election Dynamics Media Critique Populism Political Figures
  1. There is a division within right-wing politics, with one group focused on technology and immigration, while the other emphasizes hiring Americans. This conflict reveals deep disagreements on priorities and treatment of certain demographics.
  2. Journalistic narratives often misrepresent political situations, making them seem more normal than they are. This 'sanewashing' can hide essential truths from readers.
  3. Donald Trump's upcoming presidency suggests continued chaos, with various factions vying for power and unclear policy directions. The interactions and conflicts in online discussions illustrate a tangled political landscape.

American Economic History Midterm This Friday!

199 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🚌 Education Academic History Economics Lectures
  1. The midterm exam will focus on the readings, so doing them is key to doing well. It's designed to be easy if you're prepared.
  2. The course looks at American economic history through various significant episodes instead of a continuous timeline. This approach highlights important events and their impacts.
  3. Upcoming weeks will cover topics like immigration, feminism, and the rise of Silicon Valley. Each week connects historical discussions to current economic issues.

ONE VIDEO: Donald Trump & the Very Large Faucet on the U.S.-Canadian Border

345 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Policy Analysis Media Critique Political Satire
  1. Donald Trump's comments show he has a unique view on how water resources work, particularly regarding water flowing from Canada to California. Many people around him seem to lack the willingness to correct his misunderstandings.
  2. He claimed that turning a 'faucet' could solve California's water issues and that this would cause the state to thrive, ignoring the complexities of water management and environmental concerns.
  3. Trump's statements indicate he believes he could improve the agricultural situation in California significantly, but his ideas seem unrealistic and overlook important facts about irrigation and ecology.

& We Are Live Over at the "Milken Review", with: Chickens Coming Home to Roost?: The Perils of Deglobalization

276 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Globalization Trade policy International relations Economic Impact
  1. Countries are starting to use their market power for political reasons, which can hurt globalization. This means that economic decisions are becoming more political.
  2. The level of globalization has been changing a lot, and even though it dipped during the pandemic, it has started to recover. Still, many people are concerned about the risks of deglobalization.
  3. Reducing global connections might lead to higher prices and less innovation. The goal now seems to be working with other countries while being careful about becoming too dependent.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES FROM 1998: Robber Barons

207 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Wealth Inequality Capitalism Political Influence Economic History Corruption
  1. Wealth in the economy often concentrates in the hands of a few people, often called billionaires. Their success can depend on timing, connections, and sometimes political favors.
  2. Historically, periods of high wealth concentration have not always led to faster economic growth. Curbs on wealth accumulation can actually coexist with healthy economic performance.
  3. The past presence of 'robber barons' and their role in building infrastructure shows that their success often involved corruption and manipulation, but they also contributed significantly to the nation's development.

CROSSPOST: Alexandra Petri: It Has Fallen to Me, the ["Washington Post"] Humor Columnist, to Endorse Harris for President

584 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Media Democracy Political Commentary
  1. The Washington Post decided not to endorse a candidate for the 2024 presidential election, saying they want to return to their historical roots of neutrality.
  2. The humor columnist publicly endorsed Kamala Harris because she believes it's important to care about the future and the kind of world her child will be born into.
  3. She argues that democracy is fragile and must be actively supported, and that it's crucial to speak out against candidates who threaten it, like Donald Trump.

In Data Science for Non-STEM Majors, Is Learning-by-Watching Live Calculating Possible? Likely? Reasonable to Expect?

238 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🚌 Education Data science Pedagogy Economics Analysis Learning methods
  1. Students today need basic data science skills to succeed after graduation. It's like letting them leave school without knowing how to read or write.
  2. Teaching data science can be tricky because students have different backgrounds. Some find it confusing, while others think it's too basic.
  3. It's important to keep trying to teach data science. Finding the right way to do it is necessary for better education and understanding.

American Economic History: Introduction

253 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🚌 Education History Economics Teaching Analysis Data science
  1. The course will focus on American economic history without trying to create a single, simple story. Instead, it will look at different themes and questions week by week.
  2. An important question will be whether America is exceptional and in what ways. This can help us better understand history and economics.
  3. Students will not only learn about historical events but also get a taste of data science to analyze economic models and improve their analytical skills.

Time to Revisit: How Does This Assessment Look Fourteen Months Later?

192 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There are two main views on inflation: 'Team Transitory' believes inflation will go away, while 'Team Persistent' thinks it will stick around. The debate is important to understand how to deal with the economy's ups and downs.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions, like raising interest rates quickly, play a big role in managing inflation. If the Fed hadn't acted as strongly, inflation expectations could have gone out of control.
  3. Past economic cycles were shaped by different factors, like wars and technological changes. Understanding these historical trends can help us navigate today's economy better.

DRAFT NOTES on "Grab 'Em by the Pussy" for January 20, 2025

246 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cultural Commentary Social Dynamics Gender Issues Media influence
  1. Right-wing young men should realize that bravado and aggression won't help them succeed. Instead, they need emotional intelligence and collaboration skills.
  2. Emulating wealthy individuals who use rude language can lead to serious consequences. It’s essential for young men to understand that being viewed negatively can limit their future connections.
  3. Focusing solely on making money without considering social goals can create shallow relationships. Real success involves more than just financial gain; it's about building genuine connections.

SOME IMAGES: This Morning's Pacific Palisades Fire in Los Angeles

269 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Wildfires Global Warming Natural Disasters Environmental Policy Climate Impact
  1. Al Gore and Bill Clinton came close to tackling climate change 30 years ago, but some politicians blocked progress.
  2. Dealing with global warming will likely cost a lot of money in the future, especially for managing wildfires.
  3. The biggest future dangers from climate change may not be wildfires, but issues related to water systems in Asia.

Slides for Tomorrow's (2025-02-24 Mo) "American Exceptionalism" American Economic History Lecture

146 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic History Political theory Industrialization Immigration Policy
  1. The U.S. had the potential to become a primary product exporter like Australia and Argentina due to its abundance of natural resources and land. However, historical choices led to a different path of industrialization instead.
  2. The U.S. chose to focus on manufacturing, education, and infrastructure, thanks to policies from figures like Alexander Hamilton. These choices helped build a strong economy that could sustain growth and innovation.
  3. Specializing in primary products can be risky as it makes economies vulnerable to price changes and global demand shifts. The U.S. avoided these traps by diversifying into industrialization, which created a more robust and resilient economy.

Social Theory for the Mid-21st Century: Part I. What Do I Ask My Students to Read so That They Will Understand the World of 2055?

415 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Curriculum Development Social theory Philosophy Political theory
  1. Teaching students about human affairs is essential to prepare them for their future. We need to help them understand how to navigate their lives and the society they'll be part of.
  2. History provides valuable lessons and analogies, but it's important to synthesize these into useful theories. Good theories help us learn from the past and think about the future.
  3. It's necessary to adapt our teaching to current and future realities, rather than relying only on past approaches. Students need knowledge that applies to the world of 2055, not just what was relevant 40 years ago.

PROJECT SYNDICATE DRAFT: Chaos-Monkey Trade Policy

176 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Administration Economic Impact Government Policies
  1. The upcoming Trump II administration is expected to create harmful policies for the country. It's important to pay attention to how these policies are communicated and executed.
  2. There's a strong need for the press to scrutinize which of Trump's Twitter claims actually lead to real policy changes. This oversight is crucial to understanding the potential impact on American society.
  3. The chaotic nature of Trump's trade decisions, like fluctuating tariffs on imports, shows unpredictability in trade policy. This inconsistency can affect economic relationships with neighboring countries.

The Unmaking of a Modern Economy: Brexit, Austerity, and Britain's Great Retraction

376 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Macroeconomics Global Economy Financial Crisis Growth Strategies
  1. Britain's economy has struggled since 2008, missing out on a lot of potential growth. If things had gone differently, people would be much better off today.
  2. Policies like austerity and Brexit have hurt the economy, but they are not the only reasons for the decline. There have been many mistakes made over the years.
  3. The long-term effects of economic shocks, like the Great Recession, can have lasting impacts on growth. This shows how important it is to be careful with economic policies.

READING: Martin Luther King, Jr. (1958): Out of the Long Night

192 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Civil Rights Social justice Race relations Historical context
  1. Nonviolent resistance is a powerful way to fight for justice. It focuses on love and understanding instead of anger and violence.
  2. The struggle for freedom and equality will keep going until everyone is free. People who face injustice have a strong desire to fight for their rights.
  3. It's important for everyone, especially churches, to stand against racism and inequality. Many people stay quiet, and that can be just as harmful.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Economic strategy Inflation Public Opinion
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

Why I Think Alexander Hamilton's Big Constitutional Convention Speech Is Worth Reading Today

192 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitution Democracy Governance Political theory Historical Analysis
  1. Hamilton's big speech at the Constitutional Convention is important because it shows his true thoughts on government and leadership. He believed in strong national leadership, even suggesting that Washington should be a monarch.
  2. Current political systems from the 1960s and even the founding era have not worked well, leading to frustration with both leftist and centrist politicians. There's a need for a better approach to ensure government truly reflects the people's needs.
  3. The discussion about democracy today often misses the point. It's not just about people expressing their views, but also about having representatives who really listen and act on those values.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Labor Market Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: American Idiots

222 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Governance Elections Public Policy Political Behavior
  1. There was a recent chaotic event in U.S. politics that hints at possible future issues under a second Trump administration. This involved key figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump arguing about a government funding bill.
  2. In the end, a deal was reached by some congressional leaders, but it showed how easily politicians can be swayed by people like Musk, even when they spread false information.
  3. Overall, the way politics is handled nowadays resembles a wrestling match more than a serious governing process, making it hard for voters to trust their leaders and their decisions.

"We Once Again Need to Raise More Capital than We Had Imagined": Watching OpenAI Say It Needs a New Structure

207 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Startups Investment Innovation Economy
  1. OpenAI is looking for more money than they expected, which highlights how important funding is for their progress towards AGI. This means they need to attract investors willing to take risks.
  2. They plan to change their structure to a Public Benefit Corporation, balancing profit with broader social goals. This structure aims to raise capital more effectively while still focusing on their mission.
  3. OpenAI's current success is compared to how Netscape was for the internet. This suggests that OpenAI is leading a new wave of technology and investment in artificial intelligence.

CROSSPOST: ARCHIVES: Franklin Delano Roosevelt at the 1936 New York State Democratic Convention

238 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Campaigns Political History Democratic Party Republican party Political Philosophy
  1. The Republican leaders are more focused on opposing actions than actually getting things done. They claim to support the same goals but resist the efforts to achieve them.
  2. History shows that during tough times, those in power must respond with real solutions. Neglecting issues can lead to greater unrest and challenges to government.
  3. Making promises without a clear plan can be dangerous. It’s important to face the reality of social issues instead of evading them, or we risk repeating past mistakes.

Thinking About Teaching Economic History to the First-Year Economic History Graduate Students This Forthcoming Semester

199 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🚌 Education Economic History Teaching Methods Historical Analysis Economic Theory
  1. Economic history helps us understand how preferences and market structures formed over time. Looking back can show us why things are the way they are today.
  2. It's important for economics students to learn about the historical context of economic principles. This context can enrich their understanding and practical applications in the real world.
  3. Questions about past economies can shed light on current issues, like inequality and technology progress. Exploring these questions can lead to valuable insights for today's economists.

What the East African Plains Ape Anthology Intelligence Has Managed to Do, with Respect to the Economy

253 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Society Growth Institutions Transition
  1. Human society has evolved from slow, agricultural growth to rapid industrial progress, but we still struggle with managing this change effectively.
  2. The historical shift from cooperation to domination in societies has created challenges in creating systems that benefit everyone today.
  3. We have the potential for great prosperity, but we need better institutions to help us use our resources wisely and live well.

Gini Coefficients...

115 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economics Statistics Social Policy Education
  1. The Gini Coefficient measures income equality, where 0 means everyone is equal and 1 means one person has everything. It helps us understand how wealth is distributed in a society.
  2. Intermediate Gini values can be tricky to interpret. It's hard to know what a score like 0.25 or 0.62 really means in terms of real-life inequality.
  3. Understanding historical Gini scores can give insight into how different societies experience inequality, but the differences might not always feel significant or clear.

HOISTED FROM A YEAR AGO: Why Is There No Gentry-Massacring Peasant Jacquerie in "Pride & Prejudice"?

169 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
📚 Literature Classics Historical Fiction Analysis Social Commentary Cultural critique
  1. Mr. Bennet from 'Pride and Prejudice' has a lot of income from his estate compared to typical workers, raising questions about his wealth. His lifestyle reflects a significant gap from the common folk who earn much less.
  2. Historically, landowners like Mr. Bennet didn't rely on battle skills for their wealth, unlike knights of the past. Their wealth comes from owning land and having no direct skills to justify their social standing.
  3. While France faced revolts that changed the system and broke down feudal privileges, England managed to avoid such upheaval. This difference shaped the future of the social classes in both countries.

READING: Hamilton's Constitutional Convention Speech

153 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Constitutional Law American history Government Structure Democracy issues
  1. Hamilton believed that weak state governments could harm a strong federal government. He thought a perfect government needed clear powers and strong institutions.
  2. He was worried that pure democracy could lead to chaos and tyranny. Instead, he preferred a system where some leaders held power for a longer time to ensure stability.
  3. Hamilton highlighted that the interests of states often clash with the needs of the entire nation. He suggested a government structure that aligns individual and national interests better.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Again, This Year, I Lament I Have No Opportunity to Give My "How to Think Like an Economist" Lecture

99 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Economics Higher education
  1. Learning economics requires new ways of thinking, similar to learning a new language. It helps people see the economy more clearly but may also overlook things that are not easily measured.
  2. There's an ideal time in college to teach how to think like an economist. Teaching it too early or too late may not be effective.
  3. Economics is viewed differently based on background; some see it as a science, while others view it as outdated psychology. Both views have some truth to them.

Social Theory for the Mid-21st Century: Part III. How Can the Experiences of Past Societies of Domination Be Relevant for Us?

269 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
📖 Philosophy Social theory Political Economy History Ethics Technology
  1. Past societies often operated under systems of domination, where a small elite would take resources from the majority. This made it difficult for anyone to improve their situation without facing threats or violence.
  2. Technological progress today is much faster than in earlier times. This rapid change creates new challenges that previous societies never had to deal with, making lessons from the past less applicable.
  3. Understanding the internal workings of elite groups in past societies can provide some insights today. However, we shouldn't assume we are bound by their limitations because our circumstances are very different.