The hottest Earnings Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Do you want to pay startup prices for public companies?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Palantir's stock has skyrocketed, making it the most expensive on the S&P 500. This raises questions about whether its high valuation is justified based on its earnings.
  2. The stock market is behaving irrationally, sometimes valuing companies like startups even when they are publicly traded and have slower growth forecasts.
  3. Investors should be careful with risky trades like shorting stocks because the market can stay irrational longer than you can handle.

AMD Q4 and FY 2023 Results

More Than Moore • 186 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. AMD had a strong Q4 in 2023 with record-breaking revenue, driven by its Data Center Business Unit.
  2. The Client computing sector saw improvement in Q4 2023 after facing challenges in the first half of the year due to market shifts and inventory digestion.
  3. AMD's Gaming unit experienced a decline in Q4 revenue, mainly due to semi-custom sales, but overall yearly numbers were up with increased Radeon sales.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Lam's performance is better than what people expected. This suggests some positive surprises in the market.
  2. Telecom is showing strong growth after a rough time. This is a sign that the industry may be recovering.
  3. Companies like TXN, LRCX, and SK Hynix are mentioned, indicating key players are having important earnings releases.
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You Can Earn More Money with Evergreen Content in 2023

Kristina God's Online Writing Club • 99 implied HN points • 08 Dec 22
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Evergreen content stays relevant over time, unlike seasonal content which loses interest quickly. Creating this type of content means people will always find value in it, which is great for growth.
  2. Writing evergreen articles can lead to more earnings because platforms like Medium will promote this content more. This means you could see more traffic and revenue in the long run.
  3. Focusing on your expertise and crafting in-depth stories can help you create evergreen content. Once it gets recognized, it can keep bringing in readers and income for a long time.

Opendoor Update

Modern Value Investing • 39 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Disappointing Q4 earnings and weak Q1 2023 guidance affect Opendoor's capital base in a tough market.
  2. Changing interest rates and inflation impact Opendoor's financial outlook, causing concern.
  3. Opendoor's shrinking capital base may pose challenges in potential borrowing power and financial stability in the future.

[Q1 CY24] ARM Short Squeeze, Fabrinet Sus

Irrational Analysis • 19 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. ARM experienced a significant short squeeze after hours, showing wild price movement.
  2. Fabrinet's weak guidance and management's unconvincing excuses suggest something suspicious, leading the author to liquidate their position.
  3. Qualcomm showcased steady growth in the automotive semiconductor market despite challenges, with a rough response to questions about partnership details and future seasonality.

The fourth quarter effect in small caps

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Smaller companies show a clear drop in earnings in their fourth fiscal quarter, with the effect strongest among the smallest 25–50% of firms.
  2. The decline is driven mainly by sudden rises in costs (COGS and SG&A) and outdated cost forecasting or weak internal systems, not by lower sales or audit-driven manipulation.
  3. Analysts usually don’t adjust for this Q4 effect, so misses are more common, but market reactions are muted since investors tend to focus on the coming fiscal year.

2/1/2024: Meta Crushed Earnings Again

depression2022 • 19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Meta exceeded earnings expectations for Q4 2023 with $40.1B in revenue and an EPS of $5.33.
  2. Meta reported a 25% YoY revenue growth in Q4, reduced expenses by 8%, and achieved a 41% operating margin.
  3. Meta announced plans to pay $0.5 quarterly dividends and buy back $50B of stock, emphasizing continued focus on the Metaverse and AI development.

Why Applovin is the best-performing tech stock of the year

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Applovin's stock has skyrocketed this year, with more than a 500% increase thanks to strong earnings and revenue growth.
  2. The company's transition to a focus on advertising is paying off, driven by a machine-learning model called AXON that improves ad targeting.
  3. Applovin has made significant investments in technology and infrastructure, which is helping them stay ahead in the competitive market.

1/30/2024: Google Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations

depression2022 • 19 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Google's Q4 earnings beat expectations.
  2. There is concern about Google's search business in the future due to changing user behavior and competition from AI applications like ChatGPT.
  3. Google Cloud revenue growth accelerated in Q4, making it profitable, but there are concerns about the changing landscape of AI and its impact on Google's services.

Starbucks Shares Plunge After Sales, Earnings Miss

Dr.John B’s Newsletter • 8 HN points • 01 May 24
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Starbucks experienced a significant drop in sales and earnings, leading to a plunge in shares due to a 4% decrease in global comparable store sales
  2. The decrease in sales was particularly notable in China where competition with lower prices impacted transactions and average spend negatively
  3. Despite new store openings, Starbucks struggled to offset the declining sales in existing cafeterias due to various factors like colder weather, cautious consumers, and conflicts globally

Mobileye's Rancid Kitchen Sink

Irrational Analysis • 19 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Mobileye's CFO actions hinted at potential manipulations with revenue and earnings data, raising concerns of corporate mismanagement.
  2. The preliminary financial outlook for 2024 revealed a significant decline in revenue that might continue for a few quarters, hinting at wider challenges in the automotive semiconductor market.
  3. Investors are advised to diversify into safer stocks, considering the uncertainties in the auto semi industry, with Mobileye's situation being a concerning outlier.

Six metrics to assess public miners in earnings season

Miner Weekly • 39 implied HN points • 11 Mar 23
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Unique metrics are essential for evaluating public bitcoin mining operations, alongside traditional financial metrics like gross margin and P/E ratio.
  2. Metrics such as Realized Hashrate, Price-to-Hash ratio, and Net-Debt-to-Hash ratio provide a holistic view of publicly listed mining operations' health.
  3. Having a variety of metrics helps in assessing the state of mining stocks, especially crucial during uncertain market conditions like a bearish trend.

Let's just value OpenAI at infinite money and be done with it

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Earnings
  1. OpenAI's valuation is getting a huge boost, potentially reaching $300 billion. This shows how confident some big investors are about its future.
  2. Major companies like Intel, Apple, and Atlassian are recently reporting their earnings, with some beating expectations while others struggle.
  3. There's a chance of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and possibly China, which could impact business hopes and trade relations.

NVIDIA and the Return to Normal

The Last Bear Standing • 152 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. NVIDIA reported smashing earnings and provided exceptional guidance for future growth.
  2. Investors should focus on earnings growth and company trajectory rather than short-term valuation alone.
  3. The market is showing signs of returning to normal with tech earnings rebounding and macro uncertainties persisting.

This company mined bitcoin for free in Q3

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Bitcoin's price and hashprice have been on the rise, showcasing a positive trend in the market.
  2. Several mining companies found success through industry consolidation amid challenges faced by others in the past year.
  3. Riot Platforms effectively mined bitcoin for free in Q3 by leveraging power curtailment credits, showcasing innovative cost-saving methods in the mining industry.

PacBio Earning Call

ASeq Newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
💼 Business Earnings
  1. PacBio's recent earning call showed they did a bit better than expected, even though overall expectations were low.
  2. They had a positive sign with the sale of the Vega, selling 38 units this quarter, which is up from the last one.
  3. Other instruments aren't selling as well, likely due to less research funding and concerns about global trade.

Clouded Judgement 11.28.25 - Q3 Earnings Check In

Clouded Judgement • 2 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Q3 has shown strong performance for software companies, with a year-over-year growth of 23% in net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). This suggests a positive trend in the industry.
  2. Valuation of SaaS companies is primarily based on revenue multiples, with high-growth companies having a median multiple of 15.2x. This indicates how investors assess the value of these businesses based on their growth potential.
  3. Operating metrics show that median growth rates are around 12% to 14%, with strong margins. This highlights that, while growth is good, many companies still need to improve their profitability.

Hovnanian 2023 Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Dec 23
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Hovnanian and Toll Brothers both reported positive earnings for the quarter.
  2. The rhetoric from the companies shifted to focus on excellent results during peak interest rates.
  3. Homebuilders are setting prices based on completion speed rather than speculation.

Investing Update: Is Mag 7 Leadership Returning?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. The stock market is having a strong run, especially the Nasdaq, which has been up for seven weeks in a row. The Dow and S&P 500 ended their winning streak after six weeks.
  2. Investors seem confident, adding a lot of money to stocks recently, even with the upcoming elections. Earnings from major companies will be more relevant to the market than the election results.
  3. Expect some market ups and downs as the election approaches, but focusing on earnings reports will be more important for making investment decisions.

Clouded Judgement 2.9.24

Clouded Judgement • 23 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Forward estimate changes not aligning with stock price movements.
  2. Startups should carefully track and manage their dilution.
  3. Valuing SaaS businesses based on multiples of projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Clouded Judgement 1.5.24

Clouded Judgement • 24 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Software stocks have seen a drop in the start of the year due to rising interest rates.
  2. Valuation of SaaS businesses is generally done based on revenue multiples for the next 12 months.
  3. The growth rate of a company plays a significant role in determining its valuation multiple.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.

Clouded Judgement 11.8.24 - Q3 Earnings + Fed Update

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. The Fed has lowered interest rates by 0.25%, now sitting at 4.5% - 4.75%. This move aims to support economic growth and labor market stability.
  2. Software companies reported strong Q3 earnings, with all 29 companies exceeding estimates. There's a positive trend in guidance for future quarters as well.
  3. Overall, companies in the software sector are seeing good growth in metrics like Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which suggests a brighter outlook for the industry.

Clouded Judgement 5.19.23

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Cloud software companies saw a boost in stock prices, but operating performance is not as positive.
  2. Companies added less new ARR in Q1 '23 compared to the previous year, indicating a headwind in new bookings.
  3. Median revenue growth rate declined in Q1 '23, along with net retention rates, CAC payback periods, but FCF margins showed improvement.

A Look Back at Q1 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement • 12 implied HN points • 20 Jun 23
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Analysis of Q1 public cloud software earnings provides insights for startup entrepreneurs on managing their businesses.
  2. Indications suggest a potential bottoming phase in the software industry with hopes for reacceleration by the year's end.
  3. Metrics such as revenue performance, growth, and sales efficiency play key roles in evaluating the success of a quarter for cloud businesses.

Clouded Judgement 5.26.23

Clouded Judgement • 12 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💼 Business Earnings
  1. Snowflake reported weakening consumption trends in April/May compared to Feb/March.
  2. The change in data retention policies by customers was a big factor in consumption weakness for Snowflake.
  3. Snowflake's report raises questions about the anticipated acceleration in consumption software and highlights the volatility of consumption models.

Clouded Judgement 3.8.24

Clouded Judgement • 6 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Earnings
  1. Some 2024 company guides are below consensus, possibly indicating a conservative approach to set achievable targets.
  2. SaaS businesses value is often based on revenue multiples, considering future growth potential.
  3. Analyzing EV/NTM Rev Multiple versus NTM Rev Growth can show how cheap/expensive a stock is relative to growth expectations.