The hottest Elections Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

Thoughts on Joe throwing in the towel.

Matt’s Five Points • 499 implied HN points • 21 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Presidency Political Climate Political parties Campaign strategies
  1. Biden stepping down from the nomination seems like a good decision given concerns about his age and abilities. This change helps avoid the risk of having someone unfit for the presidency.
  2. The political landscape is changing fast, and Biden's exit may lead to a smoother path for Harris, who is likely to get a lot of support from the party.
  3. It's important to remember that even if a new candidate like Harris faces challenges, the decision to move on from Biden was likely the best option for the party right now.

Odds and Ends #57: The government isn't as sluggish as it feels

Odds and Ends of History • 1072 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Public Policy Political theory Political Movements
  1. The government may seem slow, but it is actually getting things done behind the scenes. It's important to stay patient and not worry too much for now.
  2. One European country is ahead in the AI competition, which might surprise many. It's interesting to see how different nations are approaching technology and innovation.
  3. There's an impressive light show that sends a strong message against Putin. Creative expressions like this can really make a statement in politics.

How the Indigo Blob runs a bluff

Silver Bulletin • 397 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Government Public Policy Political Analysis
  1. Biden's age-related decline is often hidden by the White House. Many around Washington know about it, but it's not openly discussed.
  2. Media coverage has been inconsistent about Biden's age. While some outlets pointed it out, others downplayed or ignored the issue.
  3. Claims of a conspiracy regarding Biden's ability seem to have some truth. There was effort to manage how his decline was presented to the public.

2024: Frail vs. Flawed

Diane Francis • 739 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political Behavior Public Opinion Debates
  1. Joe Biden showed weaknesses during a debate but seemed fine the next day, leading to questions about his performance. This highlights concerns about the mental fitness of leaders.
  2. Voters are likely to choose between candidates who have their own flaws, no matter how bad they might be. People seem to support their sides regardless of the issues.
  3. The upcoming election seems set to be very competitive and messy, with both candidates having traits that many find concerning. It's shaping up to be a tough race.

"Nothing Will Fundamentally Change."

OK Doomer • 96 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Public Health Policy Misinformation Debates
  1. RFK Jr. is being questioned about his ability to limit research on diseases and access to vaccines. His responses have been evasive and controversial.
  2. Democrats are very concerned about the impact of his misinformation on vaccination rates, especially among adolescents, which they say has led to tragic outcomes.
  3. There are doubts about RFK Jr.'s chances of confirmation, but the long-term effects of his potential power could still be serious for public health.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Commentator

Castalia • 639 implied HN points • 08 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Public Opinion Government Accountability International relations
  1. Many people believe Biden should drop out of the race because he seems too old and is dragging the party down, but he refuses to listen to that advice.
  2. Electoral shifts in Britain and France show that political power is moving away from the centrist parties and towards the extremes, leaving a lot of uncertainty in how these countries will be governed.
  3. The response to COVID highlighted serious flaws in trusting experts without questioning them, which led to unnecessary restrictions and a loss of trust in government and public health authorities.

Master Diplomats Biden and Blinken: A Case Study in Professional Class Screwups

Michael Tracey • 171 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Diplomacy Elections Government International relations
  1. Biden and Blinken faced criticism for their approach to diplomacy, with many saying they failed to connect with other nations effectively. Their methods often seemed to worsen U.S. relationships, especially with countries like China.
  2. Biden's emphasis on rallying support for Ukraine was seen as a low bar for success. He admitted that his policies heightened nuclear risks, which raises concerns about their effectiveness in avoiding major conflicts.
  3. Despite some positive views on the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden's handling of the situation led to a significant drop in his approval ratings. Many believe he struggled to communicate the positives of this decision.

Trump vs. the Law

Comment is Freed • 106 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Law Elections Governance Populism
  1. Democracy in America is at risk if Trump makes permanent changes to its structure. His actions might affect how future elections and governance work.
  2. There’s a real fear of a shift toward a system similar to Hungary, where leaders gain power using media control and different election rules.
  3. Some wealthy Americans and media outlets are supporting Trump, which could make it harder for normal government functions to operate and discourage open debate.

What to watch for: The weaponization of government

The Watch • 634 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Trump Policy Accountability
  1. Trump may try to use the government to punish his critics and opponents. This includes possible actions like arrests and public humiliation.
  2. His cabinet appointments show a trend of choosing unqualified loyalists. This raises concerns about whether these individuals can act in the country's best interest.
  3. The potential for social media to be used as a tool for harassment is growing. With Trump’s close ties to platforms, it might lead to targeted attacks on those who oppose him.

Feeble Jobs Report

Points And Figures • 1039 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Employment Government Elections Policy
  1. The recent jobs report shows a big reliance on government jobs, which many think is not a good sign for the economy. Without these jobs, things would look much worse.
  2. Government spending isn't really helping the economy grow. Taxes and debt fund this spending, but they don't create real jobs in the private sector.
  3. A potential change in leadership could mean a big cut in government jobs, which might lead to more opportunities in private industry instead.

SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem

Silver Bulletin • 642 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political theory Party Dynamics Campaign Strategy
  1. Voters often feel betrayed when political parties don't keep their promises, which can lead them to punish those parties, even if they prefer their policies in the long run.
  2. Democrats have faced a challenge where their messages seem abstract and hard to connect with, making it difficult for voters to feel excited or trust them.
  3. Prediction markets and other indicators may make accurate calls about races, but there's a question of whether they are just lucky or truly insightful, reflecting the unpredictability of voter behavior.

Chris Hedges Live Q&A NOW: What Happens Under Trump in Palestine

The Chris Hedges Report • 86 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Policy Foreign Relations Political Commentary
  1. Chris Hedges is hosting a live Q&A about Trump and Palestine. He encourages people to join and ask questions during the session.
  2. The discussion likely focuses on the impacts of Trump's policies on the situation in Palestine, which is a sensitive and important topic.
  3. People can support Chris Hedges' work by subscribing to his publication, which offers both free and paid options.

Smart, But Not Too Smart: IQ as a Double-Edged Sword in Leadership (and Romance)

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 2954 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Leadership Intelligence Elections Public Opinion Social Skills
  1. Having a high IQ is important for success in many areas of life, including jobs and even health. It helps people learn quickly and solve problems well.
  2. For leaders, being smart is good, but being too smart can make it hard for people to relate to them. The best leaders usually have an IQ that's just above average.
  3. It's essential for leaders to connect with their followers. If they can't relate well, even smart leaders may struggle to succeed.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Silver Bulletin • 905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Forecasting
  1. The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
  2. Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
  3. Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

Trump’s Day 1 Executive Orders Are a Live Grenade Thrown at His Own Voters

Proof • 84 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policies Political Analysis Government actions Public Opinion
  1. A new president has surprised many by making decisions that seem to harm their own supporters. It feels like the president is ignoring what his voters want in favor of satisfying those who supported his campaign financially.
  2. The actions taken by the president on the first day in office have been viewed as extreme and harmful by some. This has raised concerns about loyalty to the people who voted for him.
  3. Many believe these early decisions could lead to significant backlash from his voter base. It's seen as a risky move that could hurt his relationship with those who originally backed him.

FBI still hiding key Russiagate details, newly released document shows

Aaron Mate • 256 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investigations Government Elections Security Media
  1. The FBI still won't release important details about its investigation into Trump and Russia after all these years. This ongoing secrecy raises questions about the evidence that started it all.
  2. A document from 2017 suggests the FBI investigated Trump due to concerns he could be acting on behalf of Russia. However, many parts of this document have been redacted, leaving us in the dark about the reasons for the investigation.
  3. Several events led to this investigation, including the firing of FBI Director Comey. Despite this, the investigation's conclusions did not find any evidence of Trump colluding with Russia in election interference.

America’s Conservative Party

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 59 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Parties Populism Elections Democracy Constitution
  1. The roles of the Democratic and Republican parties have changed. Nowadays, Democrats are seen as the ones supporting individual rights and national defense, while Republicans under Trump lean towards populism.
  2. Populism in America has deep roots, especially in religious communities. This shift has been influenced by technology, money, and changes in the legal framework regarding church and state.
  3. Democracy is facing significant challenges, but there's hope that non-religious Republicans may distance themselves from the current party leadership. The democratic system might need rebuilding in the future.

Our intelligentsia has abandoned our illiterati

Sex and the State • 58 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Ideology Media influence Voter Demographics Gender Issues
  1. Many young men who don’t read much are being influenced by certain podcasters, which is a concern for progressives trying to win elections.
  2. These podcasts often focus on entertainment rather than politics, appealing to men who might not engage with more traditional media.
  3. There is a need for more relatable and engaging political messaging to connect with young men in the lower educated and income brackets, especially from the left.

Weekend Update #116: One Day Until A New World: Case Study on Sanctions

Phillips’s Newsletter • 163 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Elections International relations War Strategy Sanctions
  1. Sanctions against Russia have toughened recently, making it harder for them to sell oil and damaging their economy. This could weaken their war efforts.
  2. Ukraine's attacks against Russia are increasing in frequency and coordination. They are successfully hitting key targets, which may give them an advantage.
  3. The war seems to be a race to see which side can keep fighting longer. While Ukraine fears running out of support, Russia is also showing signs of weakening, especially if Western aid continues.

Trump Unhinged

Diane Francis • 979 implied HN points • 06 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Law Political Commentary Public Opinion Criminal Justice
  1. Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts, but many Americans still believe he had a fair trial. The legal system held a powerful person accountable, showing that the rule of law is still strong.
  2. Trump's reputation in New York is not great, with many viewing him as a 'conman.' Despite this, he plans to use his convictions to rally support for his re-election campaign.
  3. Polling shows that a significant number of people, including independents and some Republicans, think Trump should end his campaign now that he's a convicted felon.

Somalia First? A closer look at Ilhan Omar and her political 'family business' in Mogadishu

The Dossier • 3400 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Foreign Relations Elections National Security Corruption
  1. Ilhan Omar aligns with a puppet regime in Mogadishu that sold out Somalia to foreign powers.
  2. Omar has close ties to Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, considered by many to be illegitimate.
  3. Omar's first husband, the father of her children, is a senior adviser to the president of Somalia.

The chilling dawn of multiracial fascism

Wrong Side of History • 650 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Populism Party Dynamics Political Discourse
  1. Democrats are losing popularity because people care more about rising prices than political debates. Many voters prioritize their economic well-being over party loyalty.
  2. Trump has changed the game by uniting different racial groups in his support. His approach shows that diversity can work well in politics, differing from traditional views.
  3. Right-wing populism may be growing in non-traditional ways, with diverse communities supporting it. This reflects a shift in how voters align their beliefs with political parties.

On Day 2 of His Presidency, Donald Trump Fired a Bazooka Directly Into the Faces of His Voters

Proof • 75 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Governance Public Opinion Political parties
  1. Many supporters feel that their values and expectations were ignored by Donald Trump early in his presidency. It seems like the decisions made didn't align with what voters wanted.
  2. The first few days of Trump's presidency were filled with actions that caught many voters off guard. This created a sense of betrayal among his supporters.
  3. Overall, the reactions to Trump's early actions highlight a disconnect between what his supporters hoped for and what he delivered right after taking office.

NORD STREAM AND THE FAILURES OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

Seymour Hersh • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Governance Political parties Public Policy Media
  1. The Biden administration has faced serious criticism during its leadership. Many believe that Biden's lack of visibility in his physical and mental capabilities hindered the party's ability to present a strong candidate.
  2. Donald Trump's return to power seems tied to Biden's failures. Some people think the Democratic Party was slow to respond to the need for a new candidate as Biden struggled.
  3. Elon Musk's influence has grown in the political sphere. There are concerns about how much control he has over key government positions and what that means for democracy.

What the future looks like from here.

The Future, Now and Then • 770 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Elections Governance Political parties Public Policy
  1. Trumpism is not going to last forever, but it will cause a lot of pain for people and will take a long time to recover from.
  2. The future looks bleak for everyday people. We could see less government protection and more power for the wealthy, leading to issues in health care, justice, and the environment.
  3. Even though it seems tough right now, there's hope that one day society can rebuild and move past Trumpism, since authoritarianism has its weaknesses too.

How will the US political upheaval influence the Ukraine War?

Glenn’s Substack • 379 implied HN points • 27 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Foreign Relations Political parties Governance
  1. Kamala Harris is expected to continue Joe Biden's foreign policies, even though she has less experience in this area. This means the current strategy in Ukraine might not change much.
  2. If Trump were to win, he might push for quicker peace talks regarding Ukraine. His focus is on getting allies to pay for protection and recognizing the costs of the ongoing conflict.
  3. The outcome of the U.S. political situation could impact how the Ukraine war is managed. Both sides may have different approaches that could lead to either continued conflict or negotiations.

Commentator

Castalia • 639 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Leadership Public Opinion Political strategy Campaigns
  1. Many Democrats feel that Biden should step aside for the next election, with polls showing a strong preference for a different candidate. The belief is that Biden's time as a leader may be coming to an end.
  2. Biden's team seems out of touch with public opinion and overestimates his connection with voters. They appear to believe that if they manage the media coverage well, it will change how people feel about him.
  3. There's a significant concern about Biden's age and health, with many questioning whether he can effectively lead. This has led to worries about who truly influences his decisions and whether his close circle is providing honest advice.

As Alternative für Deutschland continues to rise in the polls, the centre-right CDU find themselves out of options and in a self-destructive messaging spiral

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 204 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voting Trends Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Alternative für Deutschland is gaining support in recent polls, showing a significant increase in their popularity.
  2. The centre-right CDU is struggling to maintain voter support and is stuck in a pattern of negative messaging against the AfD.
  3. Friedrich Merz, the CDU's chancellor candidate, is linking his future to not cooperating with the AfD, even as many of his own supporters lean towards them.

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

Silver Bulletin • 790 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. The election model predicted the map based on 80,000 simulations, accurately reflecting the most common outcome, though some surprises were noted.
  2. Polling errors tend to be similar across states, meaning if Trump performed poorly in one swing state, he likely did in others, leading to a statistically predictable outcome.
  3. Beneath the overall results, some deep blue states showed unexpected weakness for the Democrats, while some traditionally red states are trending more blue, indicating shifting voter patterns.

Behold, A Pale Horse Race

Sarah Kendzior’s Newsletter • 5611 implied HN points • 05 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Genocide Government Foreign Policy Partisanship
  1. The Biden administration's lack of accountability for past crimes, continuation of harmful policies, and complicity in various problematic actions is concerning.
  2. Both parties in the U.S. exhibit a form of elite criminal impunity, impacting policies and maintaining grave injustices.
  3. The importance of recognizing and standing against oppression, even in situations where voting or elections may not immediately address the underlying issues.

Markets Can Turn And Inform

Points And Figures • 959 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Market Trends Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Prediction markets can show trends in politics, like giving Trump a higher chance to win. They react quickly to news, telling us what people think in real-time.
  2. Many people have lost trust in mainstream media. This is because they feel that the news is biased or not credible, leading more to rely on alternative sources.
  3. It's important to recognize our own biases when interpreting market signals. Getting caught up in our beliefs can prevent us from seeing changes that could affect our decisions.

Fortress Democracy

Diane Francis • 879 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Military Aid Geopolitics Elections
  1. The 80th anniversary of D-Day shifted global relations, with a strong focus on supporting Ukraine against Russia.
  2. Biden apologized to Ukraine for military aid delays, highlighting America’s commitment to their defense.
  3. Upcoming G7 and NATO meetings may lead to significant actions like seizing Russian assets and increasing security guarantees for Ukraine.

Time to Retire "Demographics is Destiny"

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2535 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Demographics Political theory Political parties
  1. People's political views often don't come from their backgrounds but from emotions and cultural connections. This means demographics alone don't predict how someone will vote.
  2. Political appeal can change over time, as seen in shifts in how different groups vote. Issues like personality and presentation can matter more than policies.
  3. Instead of focusing on demographics, it's more effective to convince influential people and share ideas. The masses are often influenced by trends and marketing rather than deep understanding.

The New Issue Of JOHNSTONE Is Available To Order Or Download

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 512 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Commentary War Empire
  1. The new edition of JOHNSTONE magazine is out, and you can get it in print or as a digital copy for whatever price you want.
  2. The magazine discusses the current political climate, highlighting Trump's role in representing a harsh reality about the U.S. empire.
  3. It also touches on issues like the situation in Gaza and critiques the mainstream narrative surrounding global conflicts.

Top Links 591 Place-based Bidenomics did not help Harris. The ghost particle gap & the terrors of nuclear tripolarity.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Federal Spending Democrats
  1. Place-based federal spending didn't support Harris in the elections. Many hoped that local investments would change voter opinions, but that didn't happen.
  2. There's a focus on nuclear tripolarity and its risks. This situation highlights increasing global tensions, especially with nuclear powers.
  3. The importance of understanding scientific concepts, like the ghost particle gap, is emphasized. It shows how complex scientific ideas affect broader discussions.

The State of Play

Points And Figures • 985 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Governance Media Public Opinion
  1. Many people feel that the election process is unfair and that institutions lie to the public. This has led to a loss of trust in political leaders and the media.
  2. Voter sentiment has shifted, with issues like lockdown policies, economic struggles, and social issues influencing people to lean more towards Republican perspectives.
  3. The debates around social issues, like gender identity in sports, may be turning some voters away from the Democrats, especially among suburban women who value traditional rights.

A Dinner in Berlin

Remarkable People • 519 implied HN points • 10 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Democracy History Social Issues
  1. A dinner conversation in Berlin made someone reflect on how people responded to fascism in the past. It's important to think about our actions and choices in today's political climate.
  2. The writer felt a strong duty to resist negativity and support what they believed in, even if it meant facing backlash. They realized that standing up now is important for future generations.
  3. Everyone should consider how they will explain their actions to their grandchildren someday. Will they be proud of their decisions to defend democracy or regret not speaking up?