The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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What's Trump's Game on Tariffs?

I Might Be Wrong • 7 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Trump Trade
  1. Trump's strategy with tariffs might be complicated, but it could also be based on game theory, similar to poker. This means he could be pressuring others to make concessions while playing a risky game.
  2. Nate Silver argues that Trump could be using a rational approach to tariffs, where he leverages his power against weaker opponents. The idea is that sometimes the stronger player can force the weaker player to back down or give in.
  3. However, relying on incorrect strategies can lead to failure. If Trump's inputs are wrong, his rational approach could result in negative outcomes for America.

Economics Links, 2/10/2025

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Trade AI Entrepreneurship Policy
  1. Phil Gramm and Larry Summers believe that tariffs harm economic growth and could lead to trade wars. They recommend against implementing broad tariffs.
  2. Aswath Damodaran discusses how the entry of DeepSeek could change the AI landscape, creating both low-cost alternatives and maintaining a premium market for AI.
  3. Magatte Wade argues that Africa's poverty is largely due to over-regulation and difficult business conditions, making it hard to trade and grow economically.

Top Links 622 Trump's big choices. President-Fed interactions. Lifting the wind siege & how reinsurance trimmed its wildfire exposure.

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trump Economics Policy Trade Insurance
  1. High tariffs imposed by Donald Trump can be seen positively by some who believe it helps protect American jobs.
  2. Interactions between the President and the Federal Reserve are crucial for understanding economic policies.
  3. Reinsurance companies are finding ways to reduce their risks from wildfires, showing how the industry is adapting to climate challenges.
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Top Links 604 China's booming exports. A new gas pipeline and America's murder epidemic of 2020.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Trade Economy Public Policy Violence
  1. China's exports are growing a lot because prices for things like solar panels are going down. More products are being sold even if they are cheaper.
  2. A new gas pipeline is being developed, which could affect energy supplies and markets. This could change how countries trade and use gas.
  3. The murder rate in America rose dramatically in 2020, which raised concerns about safety and crime rates in the country. This trend has led to discussions about social issues and law enforcement.

The Art of the Deal: Trump defies past paradigms to secure better terms for America

The Dossier • 232 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Politics Foreign Policy Trade Negotiation Presidency
  1. Trump uses flexible and aggressive negotiating strategies, breaking past norms to get better deals for America. He believes in leveraging various tools like bluffing and urgency during negotiations.
  2. He does not shy away from using strong tactics, even against traditional allies, to ensure America gets a good deal. This includes imposing tariffs or making bold statements to create pressure.
  3. Trump's approach to foreign affairs is pragmatic and strategic, leaving his negotiating partners off-balance. He focuses on achieving the best outcome for the United States, regardless of previous political ideologies.

Top Links 572 Tariffs & toys. The Trump non-linearity. A Miami real estate mystery. Keeping the Panama Canal open.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tariffs Economics Real Estate Trade Policy
  1. Tariffs can impact holiday shopping by raising prices on various goods. This might make things like toys more expensive for consumers.
  2. There are unique stories, like the mystery surrounding Miami's real estate market, that highlight interesting trends in the economy.
  3. Global issues, such as keeping the Panama Canal open, show how interconnected our world is and why these logistics matter for trade.

Top Links 564 Who, actually, works for the government? Trump and world trade. Leaving Illinois and the agony of Haiti.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Workforce Military Trade Security
  1. Only a small portion, about 2%, of the US workforce is employed by the federal government. It's interesting to see how few people actually work directly for the government.
  2. If half of the federal workers were fired, a big chunk of those remaining would be in military or security-related jobs. This shows how much of the federal workforce is tied to defense.
  3. The discussion about government jobs and employment raises important questions about efficiency and how the system is structured. It's worth thinking about what that means for America.

Top Links 566 Power prices. How will migrants and smugglers respond to the Trump shock? Prisons of power and Keynes on fairy dust.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Energy Labor Trade Policy
  1. Cheap electricity is making US companies more competitive compared to businesses from other countries.
  2. There are interesting questions about how migrants and smugglers will react to recent changes in politics.
  3. Keynes' ideas are still being discussed today, especially regarding economic concepts like 'fairy dust.'

ChinAI #251: A surprise in the data on China's chip imports

ChinAI Newsletter • 609 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Trade Geopolitics Cybersecurity
  1. China's chip imports dropped for the first time in consecutive years due to geopolitical factors and increased demand in emerging industries like 5G and AI.
  2. China has been focusing on localizing chip production to reduce the trade deficit, with the self-sufficiency rate increasing from 16.6% in 2020 to 23.3% in 2023.
  3. In the past ten years, China's chip industry experienced significant growth, with chip imports and exports doubling in quantity and value.

Grimes on the Move?

Knicks Film School • 734 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Trade NBA Teams Players
  1. Knicks may be looking to trade player Quentin Grimes for an upgrade
  2. Potential trade targets need to meet specific requirements like being able to create scoring opportunities and fit into the team's salary structure
  3. New York Knicks are aiming to keep future picks and swaps available for larger trades by using Grimes in a potential trade package

Don’t Panic About A Yen “Free Fall”

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Currency Economy Trade Intervention Exports
  1. The danger is not a sudden financial crisis, but rather slow erosion of Japan's economic competitiveness and living standards.
  2. The yen's recent fluctuations do not indicate a free fall, but rather show volatility in the currency market.
  3. Japan has the resources to prevent a currency free fall and stabilize the yen value through interventions and its international assets.

Spicy P(acers)

Good Morning It's Basketball • 569 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NBA Trade Basketball Team
  1. Indiana trades for Pascal Siakam with a relatively low risk trade package compared to his contract.
  2. Dejan Milojevic, assistant coach for the Golden State Warriors, tragically passed away from a heart attack.
  3. Deandre Ayton couldn't play for the Blazers due to icy conditions in Portland, impacting his ability to travel.

Top Links 611 Trump's threat to affordable cars. Why trust small business? The world's most important boy scouts & revisiting the Maginot line.

Chartbook • 243 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economics Trade Tariffs Business
  1. Trump's tariffs will make affordable cars harder to find in the US. This is because the cost of making these cars will go up.
  2. Trusting small businesses is important for our economy. They often provide better service and creativity compared to larger corporations.
  3. Revisiting historical events, like the Maginot Line, can teach us valuable lessons. It's a reminder of how preparation and strategy matter in facing challenges.

Illumina Sanctions

ASeq Newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade Finance Economics International Technology
  1. Illumina might face sanctions in China due to trade tensions. This situation is unusual for a company focused on genetic technology.
  2. Their revenue in China was only 7% of their total, which is about $75 million. It's important to note that this revenue has been decreasing since 2022.
  3. Even with these potential sanctions, the overall impact on Illumina is expected to be minor. Their business in China isn't as significant as it may seem.

Top Links 585 Mexico's laborious economy. VW exits Xinjiang. Bibles are booming. Joan Robinson on time & history.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Labor Trade Globalization Industry
  1. Mexico works a lot, making it the second biggest economy in the OECD by total hours worked, surpassing countries like Germany.
  2. Volkswagen has decided to leave Xinjiang, reflecting changing business strategies in sensitive regions.
  3. There is a rising interest in Bibles, indicating a shift or demand in religious materials.

Top Links 548 A productivity surge in the US oil industry. Taiwan's AI exports. The price of data and Joan Didion putting the boot in.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Industry Technology Productivity Trade
  1. The US oil industry is experiencing a big boost in productivity, which is likely affecting the overall economy.
  2. Taiwan is making significant strides in AI exports, indicating growth in tech and innovation in the region.
  3. There are rising concerns about the value of data in today's world, reflecting how important and expensive information has become.

Tyrese Haliburton’s ideal teammate

TrueHoop • 452 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Trade Players Teams
  1. Pascal Siakam is seen as the perfect teammate for Tyrese Haliburton, offering complementary skills that can elevate the Pacers' potential.
  2. Siakam's versatility and chemistry with Haliburton are highlighted, showcasing his value in helping the Pacers succeed and supporting Haliburton's leadership.
  3. The Pacers' acquisition of Siakam is viewed as a strategic and promising move, positioning them well for success and a strong playoff run.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade Investments Economy Hedge Funds Deficits
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Top Links 539 Peru's blueberry boom. El Salvador's $1 billion US-backed loan & the legacy of migrant jails.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Loans Trade Market Trends
  1. Peru is seeing a big increase in blueberry production, which is good for its economy. Blueberries are becoming a popular export from the country.
  2. El Salvador has received a $1 billion loan from the US, which is aimed at improving economic conditions. This is part of a larger effort to support the country's development.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the long-lasting effects of migrant jails. These facilities have complex legacies that affect many communities.

Whither China 5: No, China is not competing with India for Wall Street's attention.

Chartbook • 1316 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Globalization Investment Trade Geopolitics Economy
  1. Wall Street is pulling billions from China's economy and shifting focus to India, creating a significant change in global markets.
  2. Financial flows in China show a trade surplus, with global investors moving away from China and towards India.
  3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China has drastically decreased since 2022, reflecting investor concerns about geopolitics and domestic policies.

Popes are good for business

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💼 Business Trade Economics International Cultural impact Investment
  1. Pope John Paul II traveled to many countries, visiting 129 in total, which is more than all the previous popes combined. His trips brought attention to smaller and developing nations.
  2. Visits from the pope seem to boost trade for the countries he visits. This is especially true for poorer nations, which can get international focus during his trips.
  3. Countries with a large Catholic population see an even bigger increase in trade after a papal visit. The pope acts like a powerful trade ambassador when he travels.

Bulls and bears: a nuclear update

Everything is Light • 373 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Energy Nuclear Renewables Trade Policy
  1. Energy security is a global concern and nuclear energy is crucial for societal progress.
  2. Many countries are investing in expanding nuclear energy generation, with significant projects underway in Asia, Europe, and North America.
  3. Despite past reservations, some nations like Japan and Italy are reconsidering nuclear power, while others like Denmark and Singapore are exploring options.

China & Russia pledge 'changes not seen in 100 years': Xi & Putin take aim at US dollar hegemony

Geopolitical Economy Report • 677 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Trade
  1. China & Russia are challenging US dollar hegemony by promoting trade in yuan and national currencies
  2. Bilateral trade between China and Russia is rapidly growing, hitting record highs and expected to surpass $200 billion in 2023
  3. Russia is expanding energy cooperation with China, exemplified by projects like the Power of Siberia gas pipeline

There is an urgent need to unlock labor productivity in African economies

An Africanist Perspective • 613 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Development Debt crisis Trade
  1. African economies are facing a decline in growth rates due to reliance on commodity exports and insufficient wage job creation, with potential negative implications for the future.
  2. Policymakers must find a delicate balance to prevent liquidity crises from turning into solvency crises, focus on revitalizing economic dynamism in major economies like Nigeria and South Africa, and prioritize intra-Africa trade for economic growth.
  3. The decline in labor productivity in African countries is a significant challenge, requiring urgent attention and structural reforms to promote domestic commercial revolutions and create more jobs.

Weight Loss Drugs Continue to Power Denmark's Economy

Apricitas Economics • 52 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Pharmaceuticals Exports Trade Manufacturing
  1. Denmark's economy is growing mainly because of weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. These drugs help people lose weight and improve health, leading to increased demand and exports.
  2. The pharmaceutical boom has made Denmark one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU, with a significant rise in drug exports to the United States. This growth has greatly benefitted Denmark's GDP.
  3. Despite the economic growth, many people in Denmark aren't feeling the benefits yet. Personal spending and investment have been stagnant, even though pharmaceutical manufacturers are earning more money.

Companies don’t wait for tariffs to come into effect

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Trade Inflation Pricing
  1. Companies often raise prices immediately when there are announcements of new tariffs. They do this to prepare for higher future costs even before tariffs actually take effect.
  2. Retailers have shown that price increases on imported goods tend to stay high, even if tariffs are later paused or reversed. This suggests that once prices go up, it can be hard for them to come back down.
  3. The price changes from tariffs could impact inflation in the US economy. This means the Federal Reserve may need to pay close attention to these trends to manage economic stability.