The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics
Chartbook • 515 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
  1. US tariffs may have peaked, prompting questions about where trade policy and international economic relations go next.
  2. The crypto market is in a prolonged 'winter' and observers are debating whether this downturn is final or will give way to further boom-and-bust cycles.
  3. Discussions about Fei Xiaotong and Troeltsch reflect a wider re-evaluation of Chinese sociology and historicist approaches in intellectual history.
Noahpinion • 19765 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
  1. The U.S. government is actually pretty efficient, which surprises many tech workers. They often expect to find lots of waste, but instead find hard-working employees.
  2. Solar power is becoming a major energy source in the U.S. and can meet a big chunk of electricity demand, especially when combined with batteries for storage.
  3. Americans are getting richer again after the 2008 financial crisis and housing crash, as housing prices rise and household debt decreases.
Wrong Side of History • 584 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
  1. The European project is built on openness and free movement, which makes a conservative, nationalist united Europe hard to sustain and lets migrants move freely to the continent's most attractive welfare states.
  2. The new EU–India mobility deal will create legal routes that are likely to bring many low and semi-skilled workers to Europe, which can reduce job opportunities for local young people and fuel a political backlash that benefits the radical right.
  3. Migration acts as a social safety valve for sending countries like India, and European leaders continue to push open migration policies for ideological reasons despite the clear political and social risks.
Phillips’s Newsletter • 315 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
  1. He’s clearly reading the polls and acting scared, so he toned down his usual confrontational style.
  2. He deliberately minimized or avoided formerly central issues—like attacks on the Supreme Court, tariffs, ICE/immigration, and mentions of Russia or China.
  3. He pushed the economy (prices and inflation) and highlighted selective foreign-policy ā€œwinsā€ like the Venezuela operation and a claimed Iran strike to sell achievements and distract from unpopular policies.
Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
  1. The US labor market is cooling as corporations trim payrolls, suggesting slower hiring and rising economic risk.
  2. There are growing concerns about escalating tensions between the United States and Mexico, framed starkly as a potential ā€œsecond Mexican-American war.ā€
  3. Debates about justice and public morality are foregrounded, using images like ā€œmonsters of justiceā€ and ā€œBonnie be goodā€ to question how society judges behavior.
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Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
  1. India is becoming geopolitically central and is shaping global politics and trade in new ways.
  2. Energy ties between Russia, India, and the UAE are realigning into a new geometry that is shifting power and supply relationships.
  3. Pieces like Afghan pomegranates and reflections on old Mexico point to local economic and cultural stories that also highlight wider concerns about the Earth's environmental precariousness.
Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
  1. Copper prices have exploded this year, reflecting sharp shifts in global commodity markets and putting pressure on industries that need copper.
  2. Cuba is running low on oil, which raises the risk of fuel shortages that could disrupt transportation, power, and daily life.
  3. There’s an active debate between economists like Mehrling and Rogoff, and a diplomatic thaw on Kinmen island hints at easing regional tensions.
Chartbook • 586 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
  1. The collection explains how Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes money and what that means for global chip supply chains.
  2. It examines Japan's demographic challenges, highlighting population decline and the economic and social consequences.
  3. It revisits contested historical and geopolitical topics, like the role of highways in Nazi Germany and debates around the Cold War figure known as 'Zbig', showing how infrastructure and personalities shape history.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
  1. Canada is moving to strengthen economic ties with China as part of a strategy to reduce dependence on the United States.
  2. Concrete steps include allowing a limited number of Chinese-made electric vehicles and removing tariffs on Canadian canola to boost exports.
  3. Donald Trump publicly attacked the arrangement, calling it a disaster and suggesting the U.S. views Canada’s friendlier trade posture toward China as part of the broader U.S.–China confrontation.
ChinaTalk • 756 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
  1. China and Iran have a pragmatic, interest-driven partnership: China buys most of Iran’s oil and provides investment and cheap goods through barter and sanctions-evasion, which keeps Iran afloat but also hurts local industry and stokes public resentment.
  2. Beijing manages problems with propaganda, diplomatic support, and material help, and it supplies surveillance and riot-control technologies that strengthen the Iranian regime even as its popularity falls among ordinary Iranians.
  3. China’s leverage is limited and conditional — it will pressure Tehran when Chinese interests are directly threatened (like attacks on Chinese shipping) but it won’t reliably force Iran to change its broader regional behavior, so the tie is one of convenience, not deep trust.
Chartbook • 629 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
  1. Defense stocks are described as yo-yoing, signaling high volatility and frequent swings in that sector.
  2. ICE is said to be in decline, and the piece also highlights tariff wars along with themes called monsters and boogeymen.
  3. The post is a curated newsletter of links and images that credits artwork, and it offers a free post plus a paid subscription option.
ChinaTalk • 607 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
  1. A small, independent media project carved out an underserved niche covering US–China tech and AI, growing rapidly to about 65k subscribers and large podcast audiences.
  2. They prioritize timely, substantive podcasts and newsletters over long, funder-driven reports. Relying on unrestricted funding preserves editorial independence but limits resources for hiring and scaling the team.
  3. Coverage centers on tech and AI, export controls and chips, defense and elite politics and history. The project also curates big-picture lists and predictions to shape debate about US–China relations.
The Rotten Apple • 63 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
  1. Major Middle East shipping lanes are being closed or avoided, forcing ships to reroute around Africa and lengthening transit times; that raises freight and insurance costs and threatens perishable cargoes.
  2. Disruptions to Gulf oil and gas are pushing up fuel and fertiliser prices and cutting fertilizer availability, which will raise farming and processing costs and could reduce food production worldwide.
  3. Buyers are diversifying suppliers to cope, but higher prices, diverted cargoes and rushed sourcing increase the risk of food fraud and safety problems like mislabeling, counterfeit goods, expired products and mycotoxin contamination.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 561 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
  1. Elites at Davos claim globalization is retreating, but broader trends suggest it's still accelerating. Outside of elite circles, countries and markets keep integrating and trading more.
  2. Protectionist moves can have unintended effects, pushing other countries to open their markets instead. For example, U.S. tariffs helped nudge Canada to allow Chinese-made electric cars.
  3. Wider access to foreign goods like cheaper electric cars brings clear consumer benefits while security worries are real but likely limited and manageable. Local bans or safeguards can address specific risks without stopping overall trade gains.
Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
  1. There are different ways to measure the size of economies, like using nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP). Depending on the method, we can get very different perspectives on whether China's economy is ahead of America's.
  2. The exchange rate can change the perception of an economy's size, especially if a country's currency is weak. If China's yuan strengthens, it could suddenly appear larger than the U.S. economy in nominal terms.
  3. When comparing economies, it's important to consider local prices and living standards. For a more accurate view of how people live and what they can afford, using PPP is crucial despite its complexity and potential inaccuracies.
Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
  1. The US is now a net exporter of oil and gas because of shale, so big oil price spikes produce a modest net gain for the country instead of a large national loss. That gain is small relative to GDP — on the order of tens of billions a year.
  2. To first order the national effect is just net traded barrels times the price change (a simple rectangle), while quantity responses (elasticities) are a smaller triangle that trims importer losses but enlarges exporter gains.
  3. Gains are uneven: energy producers and owners capture most of the upside while workers and consumers face real-wage losses, and higher energy prices act as both a cost-push shock and a demand shift at home, raising inflation and complicating monetary policy.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 533 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
  1. The president’s push to claim Greenland has alarmed European leaders and could seriously damage U.S.–Europe relations and trade ties.
  2. Smuggled Starlink terminals are helping Iranian protesters bypass internet shutdowns and letting images and videos of the crackdown reach the world.
  3. The spread of legal sports betting has hurt sports and fans by fueling addiction, debt, and game-rigging scandals, and its cultural damage is hard to reverse.
Don't Worry About the Vase • 1075 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
  1. A very small nonprofit is dedicated to researching and pushing for Jones Act and maritime policy reform, and in 2025 it intervened in a Section 301 process, published operational analyses, ran research RFAs, and held dozens of stakeholder conversations.
  2. They’re fundraising with a $200,000 target (and a $50,000 minimum to stay viable) to hire a full-time policy analyst, fund additional studies, and complete a comprehensive Jones Act policy binder.
  3. With more funding they can scale impact by funding more academic studies (~$30k each), hire more analysts, possibly pay senior advisors, and even spin up a 501(c)(4) to enable direct political advocacy and expand into related reform areas.
Pekingnology • 79 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
  1. Beijing is urging Taiwan to lift travel restrictions and welcome mainland tourists again, saying reopening tourism would benefit cross‑Strait exchanges and people’s well‑being.
  2. Reopening mainland visits is framed as a practical, fast way to lower tensions by restoring everyday civilian contact and routines that make escalation harder.
  3. Both sides have signalled interest but still keep permit limits, so starting with reciprocal, limited steps—like group tours from nearby regions and restored routes—is offered as a feasible path forward.
Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 921 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
  1. Asia, especially China and India, has become a major player in the global economy, producing a significant portion of the world's goods and services. Despite their economic power, their influence in organizations like the IMF doesn't match their contributions.
  2. There is a need to reform or create international economic organizations that better represent the current global economy. BRICS countries are trying to establish new institutions but face challenges in gaining global recognition.
  3. Learning from Asia's economic success is essential for other countries. China, in particular, should identify its successful economic strategies and adapt them for use in poorer nations to help them grow.
Apricitas Economics • 49 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
  1. A surge in global AI chip demand has driven Taiwan’s fastest economic growth in decades, with exports and manufacturing soaring and GDP rising sharply.
  2. Taiwan now sits at the center of a geopolitical tug-of-war: it’s indispensable as the main producer of advanced semiconductors, while both the US and China try to secure or shift semiconductor supply for strategic reasons.
  3. The boom also brings risks — a two-track economy, currency and energy vulnerabilities, and exposure if AI demand weakens — so Taiwan must stay at the cutting edge of chip tech while managing tense geopolitics and macro policy.
The Dossier • 66 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
  1. The economy and affordability will be front and center, with the president trying to reassure voters because economic concerns could sway the midterm elections.
  2. Tariffs and a recent Supreme Court ruling are driving policy moves, prompting plans for new 10% global tariffs and other workarounds to limit the court’s impact.
  3. Foreign policy will be a major theme, focusing on Iran (from negotiations to possible limited strikes) along with a ā€˜peace through strength’ message and updates on the Ukraine war and hemispheric actions.
Letters from an American • 32 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
  1. The president is acting unpredictably and trying to personally influence foreign leaders and military decisions, pressuring allies and claiming authority over other countries' leadership.
  2. The administration is facing growing legal and political setbacks at home, with courts ordering tariff refunds, lawsuits over new trade measures, and prosecutors backing away from politically driven inquiries.
  3. Testimony about the homeland security department exposed accusations of corruption, obstruction, and the politicized labeling of opponents as "domestic terrorism," prompting bipartisan outrage and calls for accountability.
Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
  1. The global auto industry is being transformed, and the US has dramatically underperformed relative to broader trends.
  2. The biosphere is under severe stress as fires and climate impacts rapidly damage ecosystems and raise urgent risks.
  3. Arms flows, influence campaigns, and shipping disruptions are major geopolitical forces reshaping trade, security, and global power.
The Rotten Apple • 84 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
  1. Unsafe crops (like aflatoxin‑contaminated peanuts) can push sellers to commit fraud, shipping goods through illicit routes so contaminated food reaches consumers. This kind of fraud raises both economic and health risks because it often involves forged certificates and bypassed testing.
  2. Sudden trade spikes in transit countries, unexplained price drops, and porous borders or corrupt officials are clear red flags and enablers of food fraud. Businesses should watch trade data and supply chains for these warning signs.
  3. Glyphosate is used widely and remains controversial: legal rulings, scientific debate, and political pressures show its safety is uncertain while residues can enter food when sprayed on crops before harvest. That uncertainty makes it a major food‑safety and policy issue for the food system.
Apricitas Economics • 131 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
  1. U.S. companies are now spending over $1 trillion a year on AI-related software, computers, and data centers, a record investment driven mainly by the big tech hyperscalers.
  2. Much of the costly hardware is imported—especially from Taiwan, Mexico, and Malaysia—so a large share of the near-term economic gains goes to foreign manufacturers rather than directly to U.S. GDP.
  3. The boom is straining supply chains and power grids, pushing up component and memory prices, and revenues haven’t yet caught up, so whether the massive investment will pay off remains uncertain.
Chartbook • 557 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
  1. Chinese exports have increased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic, but imports have stalled. This change shows a big split in how China is trading with the world now.
  2. The coal industry in China is shrinking, which is a positive step for global climate goals. Many jobs in coal mining have been cut already.
  3. Accenture, a major consultancy, has seen big changes since the pandemic, growing to about 800,000 employees. However, its value has dropped as the demand for consulting services slows down.
Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 27 Dec 25
  1. Germany's early-2000s recession was a significant but underrated turning point that reshaped parts of Europe’s economic landscape.
  2. China's growing network of infrastructure and trade 'connectors' is reshaping global supply chains and increasing its geopolitical influence.
  3. Sudan is facing large-scale violence and abuses amounting to modern forms of slavery, creating a severe humanitarian and human-rights crisis.
eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 231 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
  1. The U.S. president publicly demanded that Denmark give Greenland to the United States, even suggesting buying or annexing the island and prompting talks framed as acquisition discussions.
  2. European allies showed symbolic military support for Denmark but avoided direct confrontation, and the U.S. threatened tariffs that led the EU to pause a trade deal, escalating tensions.
  3. Greenlanders and Danish law make a transfer unlikely, so the U.S. push risks damaging NATO unity and creating a major geopolitical dispute without local consent.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 505 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
  1. Canada and Alberta struck a major federal-provincial energy deal to fast-track privately financed pipelines and build a huge carbon-capture project, aiming to make Canada an energy superpower and access Asian markets.
  2. The agreement is a grand bargain: Alberta gets pipeline access while Ottawa extracts commitments to deep emissions cuts, signaling an industrial transformation and energy transition.
  3. A proposed anti-hate bill could create legal risks for religious believers and chill speech about God, making people more cautious about what they say on matters of faith.
Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
  1. A large international survey found high levels of physician burnout, with 43% of American doctors reporting they feel burned out.
  2. The roundup brings together diverse geopolitical and economic topics—like UK deconvergence, the kola trade, and industrial "tank farms"—alongside striking images and historical material.
  3. The content is a curated, subscription-supported collection that mixes free and paid posts to fund its continued publication.
Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
  1. The global financial system is mainly led by the United States and its allies, holding about 65% of the world's external assets and debts. This shows how much influence they still have.
  2. Italy has interesting changes in its job market, so looking at their unemployment rate could give insights into the country's economic health.
  3. China's pharmaceutical industry is rapidly growing, indicating a significant shift in global health and economic dynamics. This can affect how healthcare looks in the future.
Pekingnology • 109 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
  1. China and the U.S. agreed to keep up dialogue and practical cooperation, with Xi saying both sides should move forward with equality, respect, and mutual benefit. He also stressed Taiwan is the core issue and urged the U.S. to be very prudent about arms sales to Taiwan.
  2. China and Russia reaffirmed a deep strategic partnership, pledging closer economic, energy, cultural, and security cooperation and tighter coordination in forums like the UN, BRICS, and SCO. Both leaders emphasized mutual support for each other’s sovereignty and plans to expand people-to-people and educational ties.
  3. Both conversations were tied to 2026 priorities—China’s new Five-Year Plan and major summit hosting—and framed around managing global turbulence, building trust step by step, and maintaining strategic stability and orderly global governance.
Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 119 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
  1. Venezuela is a massively underpriced opportunity beyond oil — if rebuilt and democratized it could join Colombia, Panama, and Ecuador as a powerful nearshoring bloc and a strategic partner to the U.S., unlocking big trade and job gains.
  2. Modern infrastructure, reliable dispatchable power (notably hydropower), and U.S.-backed financing and institutional reform are the keys to attracting hyperscale data centers, manufacturing, and long-term investment.
  3. Venezuelan entrepreneurs and an 8M-strong diaspora have already shown leapfrog innovation (e.g., Cashea), but private firms will scale up only once political and legal risks meaningfully decline.
Faster, Please! • 548 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
  1. AI and other technologies need public support to succeed. If people feel anxious about these innovations, they might resist them even if they could bring benefits.
  2. When problems arise with technology, a culture that embraces progress will see them as opportunities to improve instead of reasons to pull back.
  3. It's important for society to have a positive view of the future. If we focus too much on fears, we might miss out on the benefits of new advancements.
Interconnected • 339 implied HN points • 07 Dec 25
  1. U.S. embassies are now being tasked to promote American companies and steer government contracts to them, even working to push foreign firms out of infrastructure deals in places like Latin America.
  2. Cloud data centers are being treated as critical infrastructure and a major front in U.S.–China competition, with Chinese cloud providers expanding fast across the Western Hemisphere.
  3. U.S. foreign policy has shifted from pushing democracy to prioritizing pragmatic commercial and strategic goals, so diplomats will focus more on making deals and selling American tech than on regime type or election promotion.
Letters from an American • 29 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
  1. The president responded to the Supreme Court ruling by publicly doubling down on tariffs, claiming broad unilateral power and attacking the Court’s legitimacy.
  2. Those tariff threats have created real international and economic fallout — trading partners and the European Parliament froze or delayed deals, markets fell, and Congress shows little appetite to back the plan.
  3. A string of administration controversies and legal moves — blocked reports, a barred ambassador, officials' inappropriate behavior, and misconduct allegations — are damaging credibility and increasing political backlash.
KERFUFFLE • 55 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
  1. The Vikings—by raiding, trading, and settling—helped turn scattered Scandinavian clans into the ancestors of new peoples and the building blocks of emerging countries. They created diasporas like Normandy, the Danelaw, and the Rus' through both violence and colonization.
  2. Violence and the pursuit of treasure were central to state formation: sea-kings used raids to fund ships and armies, and military victory let rulers absorb rivals and consolidate larger realms.
  3. Trade brought foreigners and ideas like Christianity, and rulers adopted the faith because it gave divine legitimacy and administrative tools; that religious unification helped pave the way for secular, bureaucratic nation-states.
Knicks Film School • 1190 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
  1. Knicks are now viewed as a strong contender in the NBA East.
  2. The team made strategic trades to strengthen their roster for potential success.
  3. Maintaining flexibility and having a clear plan have put the Knicks in a promising position for the future.
Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 982 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
  1. Joe Biden's actions have negatively impacted the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, leading to a decline after years of Trump's tariffs.
  2. Imports of steel and aluminum surged under Biden as he dismantled Trump's tariffs, causing a decrease in domestic manufacturing jobs.
  3. Reinstating Trump's tariffs could help revive the steel industry, and forming domestic partnerships like U.S. Steel with Cleveland Cliffs may be beneficial for national security.