The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

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France's Macron opposes US cold war on China, wants independent Europe - but is it just rhetoric?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Europe United States China Trade
  1. France's Macron advocates for Europe's independence from the US to avoid being mere followers, emphasizing the need for strategic autonomy.
  2. Macron's warnings about not becoming vassals to the US are influenced by the economic importance of China as the EU's top trading partner.
  3. The failure of previous efforts, like the INSTEX mechanism, to challenge US dominance highlights the challenges Macron faces in altering Europe's foreign policy towards China.

Ukraine's neoliberalism on steroids, Europe’s economic suicide

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🌍 World Politics Europe Russia Neoliberalism Industrial Policy Trade
  1. The conflict in Ukraine reflects aggressive neoliberal reforms and Europe's self-destructive policies.
  2. Wars are fought not just with arms, but also with economic strategies. The underlying geopolitical economy is complex.
  3. Russia is focused on turning military victory in Ukraine into a new economic order, challenging Western imperialism and promoting a multipolar world.

Cash crops, marketing boards, and agricultural policy failures in Africa

An Africanist Perspective • 455 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Agriculture Development Trade Africa Policy
  1. Improving agricultural productivity in Africa is crucial for economic development. Policymakers need to shift towards policies that support small-scale farmers and focus on local value addition before exports.
  2. The role of the state in African agriculture needs to be reconsidered. Historical policies like marketing boards have had both positive and negative impacts, and there is a need for open-mindedness towards government involvement in the sector.
  3. African cash crop producers face challenges in benefiting from their produce due to the structure of international commodity markets. African governments must invest in value addition and convince buyers to support local processing to boost sectoral margins.
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Yen’s Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Weakness

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Currency Economy Inflation Interest Rates Trade
  1. Short-term fluctuations of the yen depend on interest rate gaps between Japan and the US, influencing investors to buy/sell yen.
  2. Long-term weakness of the yen is influenced by the competitiveness of Japanese exports, affecting the overall value of the yen.
  3. The purchasing power of the yen relative to its trading partners has decreased significantly over the past 50 years, impacting Japanese households and companies.

Tariffs Do Not Work

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tariffs Taxes Trade Economy Policy
  1. Tariffs do not work as intended, often leading to higher prices for consumers and businesses.
  2. Repealing all tariffs on foreign goods and shifting to a consumption tax system could make imports cheaper and boost competitiveness of US products.
  3. Using a consumption tax system could lower prices for American consumers and create a more competitive market without the need for tariffs.

Citizen Trump.

News Items • 196 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics China Economy Growth Trade Authoritarianism
  1. China's economy is struggling with a trade surplus and other challenges like a property market downturn.
  2. Investors and officials fear that China lacks a reliable source of growth.
  3. Boosting the spending of China's vast population is seen as a key factor for economic growth in the country.

Trade Surplus Provided All of Japan’s GDP Growth in 2nd Quarter

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 17 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Trade GDP Consumption Investment
  1. Japan's GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was entirely due to the trade surplus, not internal economic factors like consumption or business investment.
  2. Consumption in Japan shrank, and private demand decreased, highlighting the reliance on trade for economic growth.
  3. Real employee compensation in Japan is stagnant and even lower than pre-Covid levels, raising concerns about overall economic health and consumer spending.

What is Going on With These Tariffs?

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tariffs Economics Policy Analysis Trade Trump administration
  1. Tariffs are often seen as not helpful for goals like reducing trade deficits, so many economists criticize them. However, understanding the different reasons behind tariffs can help us see their impact better.
  2. The motivations of policymakers when using tariffs can be complex and aren’t always clear in traditional economic discussions. If we consider these motivations, we might get a clearer picture of their potential effectiveness.
  3. It's essential to look beyond conventional views in economics to really understand how policies affect the real world. Digging deeper into these ideas can help us think differently about economic policies.

Hope For A Deal between Nippon Steel and the Steelworkers Union Before Election Day

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election National Security Legislation Foreign Relations Trade
  1. There is hope for a deal between Nippon Steel and the Steelworkers Union before Election Day to avoid national security issues and ease political tensions.
  2. Election year politics heavily influence decisions, with implications for US-Japan relations and national security.
  3. Challenges exist in making the deal, including union concerns about potential job losses and the need for guarantees, but both sides are working towards a resolution.

What’s Deadweight Loss?

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 24
💰 Finance Economics Trade Market Monopoly Taxation
  1. Deadweight loss happens when goods that could have been produced and sold efficiently are not. It means losing out on potential benefits to both sellers and buyers.
  2. This loss can occur in situations like monopolies where one seller controls the market and prices goods higher than in a competitive market.
  3. Taxes can also create deadweight loss by making some products too expensive to produce, which leads to fewer goods being available for consumers.

Why Is Africa Poor?

Journal of Free Black Thought • 59 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Economic Policy Entrepreneurship Trade Poverty Corruption
  1. Economic freedom is crucial for Africa's growth. When people can easily start businesses and trade, they can improve their lives and communities.
  2. Many African countries face heavy regulations that make it hard to start businesses. This creates barriers and leads to corruption, which makes economic freedom worse.
  3. Better trade connections and fewer rules can help Africa prosper. Countries like Mauritius show that when barriers are removed, economies can thrive and people can become wealthier.

Two startups to watch, and guess which nations are our largest trading partners?

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💼 Business Startups Trade Tariffs Technology Investment
  1. Watch out for Halcyon, a startup that just raised $100 million to fight ransomware. This is important since ransomware attacks are a growing problem for businesses.
  2. Copy.AI is gaining attention as a popular AI tool for writing. It's expanding its services and has evolved since it first launched, showing strong potential.
  3. Upcoming tariffs on imports from major trading partners like China, Canada, and Mexico could lead to increased prices. This might create challenges for startups looking to grow and seek investments.

10 reasons to be optimistic about Greece

The Greek Analyst • 539 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Democracy Rule of Law Corruption Human Development Trade
  1. Greece has seen improvements in democracy, with positive attitudes among citizens and a better Rule of Law index score since 2015.
  2. Perceived corruption in Greece has been decreasing, with the country reaching its best rating in the Corruption Perception Index in over a decade.
  3. Greece's human development, gender disparities, economic freedom, innovation levels, unemployment rate, trade openness, and foreign direct investment are all showing positive trends, indicating a promising future.

US now world's top LNG exporter, as Europe boycotts cheaper Russian gas

Geopolitical Economy Report • 398 implied HN points • 08 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Energy Europe Russia Trade Geopolitics
  1. The USA is now the top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) alongside Qatar.
  2. Europe has replaced Asia as the main market for US LNG due to boycotting cheaper Russian gas, causing energy prices in Europe to soar.
  3. Significant US LNG importers in Europe include France, Spain, Britain, the Netherlands, and Italy, resulting in economic chaos and geopolitical tensions.

How Western sanctions blow back, hurting Europe, deepening Asian integration

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 11 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Sanctions Europe Asia Trade Global Finance
  1. Western sanctions against Russia led to increased trade with Asia but devastated Europe's economy
  2. Sanctions typically have a low success rate in changing the behavior of targeted states
  3. Sanctions can backfire and lead to unintended consequences like Russia's increased self-sufficiency and deepening Asian integration

Globalism is, in fact, Regionalism?

Christopher’s Newsletter • 255 implied HN points • 16 May 23
💼 Business Globalism Trade Supply Chains Economy
  1. Globalism is more regional than we may think, with the majority of revenue from international companies actually coming from within their own region.
  2. Software has accelerated the trend of regionalism, allowing companies to go global quickly and efficiently.
  3. Regionalism is a significant economic force, impacting everything from trade to supply chains, and is likely to continue growing in importance even amidst global challenges like Covid.

Biden Statement On Nippon Steel Does Not Preclude Merger

Japan Economy Watch • 79 implied HN points • 01 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Relations Trade Regulations Antitrust
  1. President Biden's statement opposing Nippon Steel's purchase of US Steel does not completely prevent the merger, as negotiations are ongoing.
  2. The Steelworkers Union and Nippon Steel are in arduous negotiations to reach an agreement that satisfies the union's conditions before the merger can proceed.
  3. If the Nippon Steel merger with US Steel fails, there are challenges for the union as there isn't another American company that can buy USS, potentially impacting union-management relations and financial stability.

Canada Fires First Salvo In US/Canada Trade War, Ruining Trump's Inauguration.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 30 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade Relations Policy Economics
  1. Canada has taken actions that seem to start a trade war with the U.S., which could create tension between the two countries.
  2. The situation surrounding this trade dispute impacted a major event, leading to Trump's inauguration being held indoors.
  3. These developments suggest that international relations can directly affect important political ceremonies and events.

Jiang Xiaojuan on further deepening economic reforms

Pekingnology • 60 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💼 Business Economics Policy Market Reform Trade
  1. Economic reforms in China focus on creating a level playing field. This means all types of businesses should have equal chances to compete and get resources without favoritism.
  2. There is an emphasis on letting the market decide which businesses succeed or fail. This encourages efficiency and helps the best companies thrive while weaker ones are phased out.
  3. Aligning China's economic rules with international standards is important. This helps local companies compete better globally and supports further opening up the economy.

Argentina's Energy Landscape from 2024 onwards

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Energy Policy Infrastructure Industry Trade
  1. Argentina is likely to achieve energy independence in the near future.
  2. The current energy mix in Argentina relies heavily on fossil fuels, with plans for nuclear and hydroelectric expansion.
  3. Investments in pipelines and production in Vaca Muerta could lead Argentina to become a net exporter of energy by 2026.

Video: Weakest Real Yen In Half Century Reflects Deterioration of Japan’s Competitiveness

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 14 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economy Currency Competitiveness Monetary Policy Trade
  1. In the short term, Tokyo has limited options to address yen's weakness primarily due to the gap between American and Japanese interest rates.
  2. The weak yen reflects not just monetary policy differences but also a significant decline in Japan's real competitiveness over the years.
  3. To improve the situation, Japan needs to focus on reforms that enhance the country's underlying efficiency, making Japanese firms competitive in the global market once again.

Did China Destroy Globalization?

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 22 Oct 22
🌍 World Politics Globalization Trade Populism Economic Policy
  1. Globalization has not been destroyed, but governments in the US and Europe are facing challenges in pursuing new trade agreements due to protectionism.
  2. Blaming China for rising protectionism overlooks the main issues, such as technological advancements and the shift towards services, leading to a decline in manufacturing jobs.
  3. Importance lies in addressing the root causes of worker distress, like job loss and wage suppression, with adjustments and mechanisms to alleviate these challenges.

The Wholesale Rape Of Canada, by the US Dollar.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Currency Trade Economics International Investment
  1. Canada has a lot of valuable resources and talent, but many Canadians are struggling with homelessness. This is partly because their economy is being affected by how the US operates.
  2. The Canadian dollar is tied too closely to the US dollar, making it harder for Canada to sell its goods at fair prices. This creates issues for Canadian businesses and workers.
  3. Many Canadians are frustrated with American influence and feel it's time to focus more on their own economy and products. This could lead to significant changes in how Canada interacts with American businesses.

Secrets of the mummy factory

The Quack Doctor • 39 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💾 History Archaeology Craftsmanship Deception Trade
  1. An artisan in Los Angeles made a fortune creating fake Egyptian mummies for exhibitions and museums, using intricate methods to deceive even experts.
  2. The mummy-making process involved using wood, excelsior, plaster, glue, bamboo, and human skeletons to create realistic-looking replicas sold for up to $1000.
  3. The artisan, Fisher, blurred the line between fraud and honesty, creating a large number of fake mummies and other curious artifacts for profit, then later transitioning to giving talks about his craft.

Some tariffs are worse than others

Economic Forces • 7 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Trade Policy Manufacturing Supply Chain
  1. Tariffs can hurt jobs and the economy, especially when they target parts instead of finished products. This can raise costs for manufacturers and lead to job losses.
  2. Not all tariffs are created equal; some can actually help domestic industries if designed carefully, but they can also create odd workarounds that waste resources.
  3. Policymakers need to think carefully about how they set tariffs. Simple solutions often lead to complex problems that can waste money and resources.

¥/$ May Be Heading to ¥125

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 24 Mar 22
💰 Finance Currency Economy Trade Interest Rates Inflation
  1. The yen may be heading towards ¥125, which would be its weakest level in 20 years, mainly due to factors like interest rate gaps between US and Japan.
  2. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions are contributing to yen weakening, despite historical perceptions of yen as a safe-haven currency during crises.
  3. Japan's shift from trade surpluses to deficits impacts its currency, and a weak yen may no longer be seen as entirely beneficial, especially if oil prices keep rising.

A Great Unravelling

Diane Francis • 339 implied HN points • 04 Oct 21
💼 Business Economy Supply Chains Manufacturing Energy Trade
  1. China is facing big problems with power shortages that are affecting its economy. Many businesses are shutting down because they can't get enough energy to operate.
  2. Britain is struggling due to a lack of gasoline, which is causing major disruptions. People are having trouble finding fuel and grocery items.
  3. The shortage of semiconductors is causing car manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe to stop production. This means fewer cars being made and possibly higher prices for consumers.

A dive into Economy of India

Sitesh’s Substack • 2 HN points • 08 Aug 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Trade Investment Employment
  1. India's economy is growing but still has a long way to go. It currently contributes 8% to the global GDP, while having 18% of the world's population.
  2. Most of India's economic activity comes from informal sectors, making it hard to get accurate data. This leads to big challenges like high debt and low per capita income.
  3. Despite having a large population and potential for growth, India struggles with inequality and low productivity. A small part of the population contributes to most of the economic consumption.

Does A Weak Yen Really Help Japan?

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Economics Currency Trade Income Inflation
  1. A weak yen has atrophied Japan's economic muscles as it relies on it like a crutch, impacting household income and overall economic growth negatively.
  2. Japan's export-driven growth fueled by a weak yen contrasts with Korea's growth driven by innovative products and efficiency improvements, leading to a significant difference in economic performance.
  3. The weak yen raises import prices and benefits big companies over consumers, showing how it indirectly transfers income and highlights the impact on inflation and household spending.

Chinese V. Premier He Lifeng's message for foreign investors

Beijing Channel • 3 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance Investment Economics Trade Global Markets
  1. China is actively inviting foreign investors by promoting reforms and a clearer business environment. They're saying that it's a good time for businesses to cooperate and invest in China.
  2. Vice Premier He Lifeng has been meeting regularly with international business leaders. This shows that China is really focusing on its economic growth and wants to strengthen ties with foreign companies.
  3. China aims to ease market access and further open its financial sector to attract more foreign businesses. They believe this will help improve their economy and create more opportunities for everyone.

Wherefore pegging

featherlessbipeds • 39 implied HN points • 08 Oct 23
🚌 Education History Economy Politics Trade International relations
  1. Bretton Woods replaced the gold standard for three main reasons - poor performance, shifting economic demands, and growing political pressure for intervention.
  2. Bretton Woods selected pegged exchange rates and control of domestic monetary policy, giving up the free flow of capital.
  3. The system experienced challenges, such as the dollar shortage in Europe, and eventually faced issues like exceeding U.S. gold supplies, leading to its vulnerability and eventual unraveling.