The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

China is ‘world’s sole manufacturing superpower’, with 35% of global output

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1056 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. China has become the world's top manufacturing power, accounting for 35% of global production.
  2. China's economic success is largely attributed to its state-led development model, with government-controlled enterprises and strategic policies.
  3. The US is heavily reliant on Chinese manufactured goods, making complete decoupling challenging and costly for both countries.

My latest from NBA Trade Season

Marc Stein • 1022 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Trade
  1. Updates on more than half of the NBA's 30 teams are coming as the trade deadline approaches
  2. Expect the unexpected in the NBA trade season; surprises often happen last minute
  3. Past unexpected trades, like Irving and Durant's, hint that more surprises could be on the way

A bunker of rare earths. No more Lightning. Pandemic security. Jakarta's growth.

Chartbook • 157 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Countries are building secure stockpiles of rare earth minerals, underscoring their strategic importance for technology and defense.
  2. A program or product called "Lightning" is being ended, signaling a shift away from that specific technology or platform.
  3. Pandemic security is a major policy concern, and Jakarta is experiencing notable economic and urban growth that matters for planning and development.

Factory Asia & Trustability Bankruptcy: A Table Suggesting the Race to Be "The Furnace Where the Future is Forged" for the World in the 2000s Is Nearly Over

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Global supply chains are tightly agglomerated: big clusters and specialized intermediates lock in advantages so that countries can look self‑sufficient overall while still being vulnerable to single choke points, and China sits at the hub of many of those inputs.
  2. Unpredictable, weaponized tariffs erode trust and allied coordination, pushing partners toward precautionary stockpiles or alternative suppliers instead of collective solutions, which deepens fragmentation and weakens coalitions.
  3. Agglomeration economics and China’s dominant supplier role mean the outcome of the race to be the world’s manufacturing “furnace” is likely set by where clusters already exist, not by slogans about decoupling, and self‑inflicted frictions like Brexit make regions less resilient.
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@adlrocha - The Efficiency Trap of the Food Supply Chain

@adlrocha Weekly Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
🍲 Food & Drink Trade
  1. The food supply chain is critically important but built for maximum efficiency, so features like just-in-time inventory, long refrigerated transport, and minimal buffers make it brittle and prone to cascading failures.
  2. Extreme consolidation and geographic specialization concentrate risk in a few companies and regions, creating single points of failure that can shut down large parts of the global food system.
  3. Fixing it requires re-aligning incentives toward resilience. Building regional processing hubs, strategic reserves, and crop/supplier diversity will cost more but reduce the chance of catastrophic shortages.

Trump’s Tariffs at the Supreme Court

David Friedman’s Substack • 278 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Trump's tariffs might not deliver the economic benefits he claims and could actually make people poorer. The reasons supporting the tariffs don't fully grasp trade economics.
  2. Congress, not the president, has the power to impose tariffs, and Trump’s emergency claims for them don't seem to meet legal standards. A long-term trade deficit isn't really an unusual threat.
  3. The court may rule against Trump because the tariffs he imposed likely aren’t allowed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. They don't fit the definition of emergencies stated in the law.

How Has U.S. Manufacturing Been Going Over the Past Generation?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 176 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Official measures understate manufacturing productivity because producer deflators miss big quality improvements. Using consumer-facing hedonic adjustments pushed through input–output tables raises measured TFP a lot, especially in computers and electronics.
  2. Even after correcting for mismeasurement, manufacturing shows a clear slowdown after the 2007–2009 financial crisis; the strong gains are concentrated in a few ICT subindustries while much of manufacturing has essentially stagnated.
  3. If quality growth has been undercounted, manufacturing matters more for growth and policy than official data imply, so researchers should dig into why ICT dominates the gains and test robustness to margins, globalization, and measurement choices.

Economics Roundup #5

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1836 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Many people believe that average tax rates and structures are unfair or ineffective. This could mean that policies need to evolve to better meet people's needs without creating high penalties for earning more.
  2. Trade barriers impact economic growth negatively, as they create higher costs in trade and limit opportunity for development across regions, both domestically and internationally.
  3. Access to credit can significantly influence people's financial wellbeing. If restrictions are placed on credit availability, it can harm those who are already struggling financially.

Border Crossings

Doomberg • 5582 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. The North American natural gas market is facing challenges like low prices and overproduction, leading to strategic production cutbacks by major players.
  2. The interconnected pipeline infrastructure among the US, Canada, and Mexico is facilitating significant natural gas exchanges, especially benefiting Mexico with its growing gas demand.
  3. Mexico's strategic position within NAFTA allows it to benefit from cheap energy imports from the US while also capitalizing on its own export opportunities to the US, contributing to its economic growth.

Innovation Job Market Papers 2025 (1/2)

New Things Under the Sun • 96 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Trade
  1. How firms are organized and how markets are structured strongly shape what and where innovation happens: design choices, mergers, venture funding, ownership patterns, and hiring networks all change firms’ incentives and their ability to innovate.
  2. Policies and external forces steer innovation incentives and diffusion: trade exposure, intellectual property rules, PhD programs, regulation of acquisitions, and shocks like extreme heat shape both the quantity and direction of technological change.
  3. Knowledge dynamics—recombination, spillovers, and evaluation—drive growth but create frictions: combining existing ideas fuels much innovation, spillovers make private returns fall short of social returns, and testability or weak exit markets can limit which ideas and startups capture value.

America is Losing Blue Collar Jobs

Apricitas Economics • 80 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💼 Business Trade
  1. Blue-collar employment is falling broadly across manufacturing, construction, transportation, mining, and utilities — roughly 65,000 industrial jobs lost in the past year and about 123,000 fewer trade jobs than the early‑2025 peak.
  2. Manufacturing has been shrinking for more than two years and now makes up less than 8% of the workforce, with big job losses in autos and electronics as demand for durable goods and consumer tech softens.
  3. Construction hiring has slowed sharply (residential trades have lost about 55,000 jobs), driven by the end of the COVID homebuilding boom, weaker energy and trucking activity, and policy choices like tariffs, immigration enforcement, and subsidy cuts that have worsened the decline.

Wang Yi's concluding address on China's diplomacy in 2025

Pekingnology • 98 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. China presents itself as a stabilizing major power that seeks to prevent war and mediate conflicts. It emphasizes managing major-country relations on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and firm defense of core interests.
  2. China is deepening ties with neighbors and the Global South through trade, infrastructure and diplomacy to build a community with a shared future and boost regional stability and development. It is expanding Belt and Road projects, free-trade talks, and people-to-people links like visa waivers.
  3. China is pushing to reshape global governance and lead development by promoting multilateralism, new global initiatives, and institutions to increase the Global South’s voice. It champions openness, trade liberalization, and proposals like a Global Governance Initiative and new cooperation bodies.

Five Interesting Things about the White House AI Action Plan

Interconnected • 570 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. The White House AI Action Plan wants to boost open-source AI development in the U.S. by making GPU resources more accessible for universities and researchers. This could help America catch up with other countries that are ahead in open-source AI.
  2. The plan includes a strategy to export American AI technology to other countries, similar to a boxed product, making it easier for allied nations to adopt U.S. AI solutions. This aims to strengthen U.S. influence in tech on a global scale.
  3. There's a shift in attitude toward AI in regulated industries, encouraging companies to experiment with AI technologies more freely rather than waiting for strict regulations first. This 'try-first' approach echoes the innovative spirit of Silicon Valley.

DIY vs. Specialization and Trade

In My Tribe • 561 implied HN points • 20 Jul 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Doing things ourselves, like mowing the lawn, can sometimes be a waste of time because we could earn more money working instead. It's important to think about what activities really bring us the most value.
  2. Many people take pride in DIY tasks. This pride can be a strong reason for doing things ourselves, even if it may not be the most efficient choice.
  3. Outsourcing tasks, like hiring someone to do chores, often makes more economic sense. If it frees up time for more rewarding activities, it can be a better choice overall.

Toshiba’s Big Technology Export Scandal

The Asianometry Newsletter • 4737 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. During the post-World War II era, the Soviet Union acquired Western technologies like modern American equipment, affecting global trade dynamics.
  2. Export controls evolved over time in the United States, influenced by historical events, concerns over national security, and international cooperation.
  3. The Toshiba-Kongsberg Incident in 1980s highlighted the challenges of enforcing trade restrictions, the impact on companies like Toshiba, and the need for effective, fair enforcement measures.

ChinAI #251: A surprise in the data on China's chip imports

ChinAI Newsletter • 609 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Trade
  1. China's chip imports dropped for the first time in consecutive years due to geopolitical factors and increased demand in emerging industries like 5G and AI.
  2. China has been focusing on localizing chip production to reduce the trade deficit, with the self-sufficiency rate increasing from 16.6% in 2020 to 23.3% in 2023.
  3. In the past ten years, China's chip industry experienced significant growth, with chip imports and exports doubling in quantity and value.

Grimes on the Move?

Knicks Film School • 734 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Trade
  1. Knicks may be looking to trade player Quentin Grimes for an upgrade
  2. Potential trade targets need to meet specific requirements like being able to create scoring opportunities and fit into the team's salary structure
  3. New York Knicks are aiming to keep future picks and swaps available for larger trades by using Grimes in a potential trade package

Henry Huiyao Wang: Why China-Canada trade and global cooperation are now ripe for progress

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. China and Canada are moving to deepen practical economic and strategic ties, with tariff deals on electric vehicles and canola, an energy dialogue, security cooperation, and a renewed currency-swap arrangement.
  2. Both countries publicly recommit to multilateralism and plan to work together on UN and WTO reform and on plurilateral initiatives to support Global South development.
  3. A pragmatic "selective engagement" approach, backed by business interest and large diaspora links, creates a window to boost trade, investment, travel and people-to-people exchanges while balancing other partnerships.

A Crack in the Ice of Geopolitics: Greenland, Svalbard, Bornholm, Canada, the Digital Iron Curtain and Suez

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 42 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Greenland is suddenly a high-stakes strategic prize, with the US pushing for greater control as part of bigger security bargains, while the Inuit insist on autonomy and resent being treated like a pawn.
  2. Western unity is fraying as several European countries and Canada cozy up to China or act independently, straining NATO cohesion and intelligence sharing and worrying the US about unreliable partners.
  3. Economic and tech coercion is rising — threats of tariffs and criticism of Europe’s reliance on Chinese-made tech hint at a coming 'digital iron curtain' and increased risk of trade and technology decoupling.

Don’t Panic About A Yen “Free Fall”

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Trade
  1. The danger is not a sudden financial crisis, but rather slow erosion of Japan's economic competitiveness and living standards.
  2. The yen's recent fluctuations do not indicate a free fall, but rather show volatility in the currency market.
  3. Japan has the resources to prevent a currency free fall and stabilize the yen value through interventions and its international assets.

Spicy P(acers)

Good Morning It's Basketball • 569 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Trade
  1. Indiana trades for Pascal Siakam with a relatively low risk trade package compared to his contract.
  2. Dejan Milojevic, assistant coach for the Golden State Warriors, tragically passed away from a heart attack.
  3. Deandre Ayton couldn't play for the Blazers due to icy conditions in Portland, impacting his ability to travel.

Top Links 831 The stained glass moment. Tomato trade wars. The genetics of Heinz 1706 & Nongqongqo

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 16 Aug 25
🎭️ Culture Trade
  1. There is a focus on the impact of stained glass art, particularly highlighting a beautiful example from Oxfordshire. It's a unique blend of art and history, showcasing creativity.
  2. The topic of tomato trade wars from the 1990s is discussed, emphasizing agricultural conflicts and their economic impacts. It shows how food trade can be influenced by global politics.
  3. The genetics of certain tomato varieties, like Heinz 1706 and Nongqongqo, are explored. This highlights the importance of agricultural diversity and food innovation.

Top Links 826 How markets learned to love the trade war. How fiscal policy loses its discretionary scope & the global peanut butter rankings.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Markets are adjusting to trade wars, often responding differently than expected. This means they may not react with fear or panic as they once did.
  2. Fiscal policy is becoming less flexible, which might impact how governments can respond to economic issues. This change can limit their ability to take quick actions.
  3. Interestingly, there’s a discussion comparing global peanut butter rankings. It shows how even simple items can spark interesting debates about economies.

Is Justin Trudeau’s Government on the Brink of Collapse?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1432 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Justin Trudeau's government might be close to collapsing due to recent political turmoil. The resignation of an important ally has weakened his position significantly.
  2. Donald Trump's recent post about imposing tariffs on Canada could have serious implications for Trudeau. This situation seems to have added more pressure on his government.
  3. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's resignation is a major blow to Trudeau, as she was one of his closest collaborators. Her fiery letter highlights increasing tensions within the government.

Top Links 749 Tanning and the tariffs. How small boats are getting bigger. Liverpool and the unmaking of Britain.

Chartbook • 629 implied HN points • 25 May 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. The leather industry in the US is facing challenges due to tariffs, which can affect the prices of products made from leather.
  2. Small boats are getting bigger, which might change how we think about fishing and travel at sea.
  3. The history of Liverpool is highlighted as a key part of understanding the changes in Britain.

Top Links 766 No tariffs on vintage. The turbine crisis. Hayek's bastards and Blue Jerusalem.

Chartbook • 543 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. There are currently no tariffs on vintage items, making it easier to buy and sell them. This can benefit collectors and businesses alike.
  2. The turbine crisis is a significant issue, which may impact energy production and prices. It's important to stay informed about how this affects the economy.
  3. Hayek's ideas continue to provoke discussions, along with topics related to cities like Blue Jerusalem. Understanding these concepts can help in navigating modern economic debates.

This Is What Fairer Trade with China Looks Like

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1080 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. There are differences in the tariffs that companies like Gap and H&M pay compared to platforms like Temu and Shein. This raises questions about fairness in trade practices.
  2. Brands like Shein and Temu are gaining a lot of attention through aggressive advertising on social media and other platforms.
  3. There is a culture emerging around 'haul' videos, where influencers showcase their purchases from these low-cost retailers, promoting consumerism.

Top Links 796 The sanctification of small business. How gold is displacing coca. A German drought and the first lawnmower.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Small businesses are being viewed as really important in America right now. This change may need more discussion to understand its impact.
  2. Gold is becoming a substitute for coca in some areas. This transition could have significant effects on local economies and social structures.
  3. A drought in Germany is impacting daily life, even influencing things like lawn care. Understanding such environmental changes is crucial.

Tyrese Haliburton’s ideal teammate

TrueHoop • 452 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Trade
  1. Pascal Siakam is seen as the perfect teammate for Tyrese Haliburton, offering complementary skills that can elevate the Pacers' potential.
  2. Siakam's versatility and chemistry with Haliburton are highlighted, showcasing his value in helping the Pacers succeed and supporting Haliburton's leadership.
  3. The Pacers' acquisition of Siakam is viewed as a strategic and promising move, positioning them well for success and a strong playoff run.

January 20, 2026

Letters from an American • 31 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Trump’s Davos-era posts and public statements use provocative images and threats — including talk of seizing Greenland — that escalate tensions with European allies and sow diplomatic chaos.
  2. The administration is pushing false election claims, attacking opponents and officials, and defending aggressive ICE actions, raising concerns about domestic rule-of-law and political stability.
  3. Threats of tariffs and unilateral moves have already rattled markets and could trigger EU retaliation, while global leaders are exploring a new, coalition-based “variable geometry” order to reduce reliance on U.S.-led systems.