The hottest Valuation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Would Apple buy Disney?

Jon’s Newsletter • 279 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💼 Business Valuation
  1. There are talks about a possible merger between Apple and Disney because they could create more value together than apart. Both companies have strong content and distribution networks that could complement each other well.
  2. Disney is currently facing challenges, including job cuts and a shift to digital streaming. CEO Bob Iger is dealing with a lot of changes and questions about the company’s future direction.
  3. If Apple were to buy Disney, it might be a big win for both. Analysts think that it could increase value for Apple shareholders significantly, making it a potentially worthwhile investment.

Clouded Judgement 1.2.26 - Authority Is the AI Bottleneck

Clouded Judgement • 10 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💼 Business Valuation
  1. Whether AI is allowed to be authoritative or only assistive decides its real impact: assistive AI saves time but usually doesn’t change results, while authoritative AI can reshape workflows and unlock big returns.
  2. Letting AI act forces organizational choices about where the source of truth is, what error rates are acceptable, who is accountable, and how to roll back mistakes — and those questions matter more than which model you use.
  3. Teams that get outsized returns pick narrow domains, set tight guardrails, and invest in data quality, observability, and rollback so AI can own outcomes and trust grows over time.

Clouded Judgement 1.23.26 - The Year of Multi-Modal

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
💼 Business Valuation
  1. 2026 looks set to be the year multi-modal AI goes mainstream as model quality, cheaper/faster inference, and real-world sensors converge so AI can operate outside text boxes.
  2. Production-grade advances in voice and other modalities plus inference optimizations (batching, speculative decoding, and smaller specialized models) are making always-on, low-latency multimodal applications practical.
  3. SaaS market and operating data show valuation dispersion tied to growth—median EV/NTM revenue is about 4.5x with high-growth companies much higher—while typical public SaaS has high gross margins (~76%), modest median growth (~12%), and long CAC payback (~36 months).

Clouded Judgement 1.16.26 - Platform of Platforms

Clouded Judgement • 6 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. AI agents are becoming the new users of software, automating cross-system workflows and doing the connective work humans used to do between systems of record.
  2. Legacy, domain-specific SaaS products are often rigid and may struggle to deliver cross-system experiences, risking being reduced to simple CRUD data stores unless they build or capture the agent layer on top.
  3. Public SaaS benchmarks show a median EV/NTM revenue multiple of about 4.4x with much higher multiples for high-growth companies, and typical operating metrics like ~76% gross margin, ~108% net retention, and long CAC payback periods.

Curve Part 2 - Valuation and Q&A

DeFi Education • 839 implied HN points • 09 Aug 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. Understanding the valuation of CRV is important for making informed investment decisions. It helps you see how valuable this asset could be based on different factors.
  2. The content emphasizes that what is shared is not a definitive valuation or recommendation. It's meant to be a guide for your own assessment.
  3. Engaging with the valuation framework allows individuals to grasp the potential for value accumulation and how to interpret it. This enhances your ability to analyze the asset effectively.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The comeback of European growth stocks

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. European growth stocks are staging a comeback, with renewed investor interest in growth names across the region.
  2. Over shorter horizons of about one year, share prices are far more sensitive to changes in government bond yields than to earnings or valuation shifts.
  3. For near-term investors, movements in bond yields will often drive returns more than earnings improvements or valuation changes, so watching yields matters most.

A Zomato 2022 Update: Price, Value and the Gap!

Musings on Markets • 399 implied HN points • 27 Jul 22
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Zomato's stock price was initially high after its IPO but has now dropped significantly due to a mix of poor earnings results and macroeconomic factors. This shows how momentum can affect stock prices.
  2. Despite the challenges, Zomato is still growing and has a strong market share in India's food delivery sector. They have a good amount of cash from their IPO to help them in tough times.
  3. The company is exploring new areas like grocery delivery, but it raises questions about their profitability and strategic focus. Investors need to keep an eye on what's next for Zomato.

FRAX: The Fractional Algorithmic Stablecoin (Pt. 2)

DeFi Education • 639 implied HN points • 14 Dec 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. Frax is a unique type of stablecoin that combines both fractional and algorithmic features. This means it aims to maintain a stable value while also using smart contracts to help adjust its supply.
  2. In just six months, Frax's financial mechanisms, known as AMOs, made over $50 million in profits. That's a big boost in a short time, showing its potential for growth.
  3. There are benefits to using Frax, but there are also risks involved. It's important for users to understand both sides before getting involved.

Buybacks shouldn’t matter, but they do

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. The textbook capital-allocation theory says buybacks and dividends are equivalent in a frictionless market, so buybacks should not change share prices.
  2. In practice buybacks do move prices — the impact depends on stock volatility and the share of daily trading bought back, so small daily buybacks repeated over time can produce large cumulative price gains.
  3. Buybacks force investor rebalancing (investors sell into the buyback then need to buy to restore allocations), which pushes the market higher, making buybacks an effective tool for lifting a weak share price.

1Inch - Valuation and Risks (Part 2)

DeFi Education • 659 implied HN points • 05 Sep 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. 1Inch's valuation is tied to its governance rewards, which come from fees on swaps and price impacts. This means their income depends on how much the platform is used.
  2. There are risks associated with the 1Inch protocol that investors need to consider. Understanding these risks can help in making better investment decisions.
  3. Improvement ideas for 1Inch could enhance its performance and income generation. It's important to think about ways to attract more users to the platform.

Maker DAO (Part 2 of 2): Valuation, Risks and More

DeFi Education • 619 implied HN points • 18 Sep 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. MakerDAO has a unique way of valuing its assets and managing risks, which is important for users to understand. It's key to know how much your investments are worth and what could go wrong.
  2. Users need to be aware of issues like impermanent loss, which can affect their returns. It’s a risk that can happen when investing in DeFi projects.
  3. Having strategies to reduce rug pulls is essential in the DeFi space. This can help you feel safer when investing and potentially prevent losses.

Clouded Judgement 12.26.25 - Exuberance Returning

Clouded Judgement • 7 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. A broad wave of exuberance looks likely in 2026 as improving macro conditions and AI-driven IPOs and M&A restore liquidity, driving faster fundraising and rising valuations across stages.
  2. AI is moving from experiment to scale, with more application companies showing measurable revenue growth and real ROI across verticals rather than just infrastructure wins.
  3. The comeback will feel frothy and sometimes irrational, but those periods also create rare long-term investment opportunities, so investors need to separate short-term momentum from structurally important businesses.

If people talk about a bubble, it’s unlikely to crash soon

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. It’s very hard to identify a stock bubble in real time, so you usually can’t be sure a bubble exists until after the fact.
  2. Media coverage and investor worries aren’t a reliable signal of imminent crashes; the press often misses bubbles or only calls them out after prices have already fallen.
  3. Even when a bubble exists, stocks can linger near their peak for months or even more than a year before a big drop, so crashes can be delayed and unpredictable.

Clouded Judgement 1.9.26 - The Education Advantage in AI

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💼 Business Valuation
  1. Teaching customers how to think about and build with AI is a major go-to-market advantage because most teams start from a blank canvas and need guidance on what problems to prioritize and how to approach them.
  2. Opinionated products that accelerate hands-on learning — by making some paths easy, surfacing tradeoffs, and offering sandboxes or free tiers — help teams move from abstract experimentation to clear build‑vs‑buy decisions faster.
  3. SaaS valuations strongly track growth, so higher projected growth drives much higher revenue multiples, while current industry medians (around 12% NTM growth, ~76% gross margin, ~108% net retention) provide a baseline for comparisons.

Perpetual Protocol (Part 2)

DeFi Education • 539 implied HN points • 10 Nov 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. Perpetual Protocol makes money from trading fees, earning 0.1% on every trade. In 2021, it generated $31 million in fees.
  2. Valuation methods like Price to Earnings help understand the protocol's financial health. It's a useful way to analyze how well the platform performs.
  3. The post also discusses other decentralized exchanges (DDEX) such as dYdX, GMX, and MCDEX as alternatives to Perpetual Protocol. This comparison can help users choose the best option for trading.

Alchemix Overview - Part 2 of 2

DeFi Education • 559 implied HN points • 15 Oct 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. Alchemix uses a Price to Earnings analysis to determine its value based on how much money it makes. This helps understand how profitable the protocol is.
  2. The protocol earns a 10% performance fee as an affiliate, meaning it gains a portion of the earnings from Yearn Finance's activities.
  3. There is a comparison table included that shows how Alchemix stacks up against other tokens in terms of various financial metrics.

How to calculate P/E ratio

Shivansh • 19 implied HN points • 26 Apr 24
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. P/E ratio compares a company's stock price with its earnings per share, providing insight into investor perception and market sentiment.
  2. Calculating P/E ratio involves dividing the current stock price by the company's earnings per share (EPS).
  3. Different types of P/E ratios like trailing and forward help in assessing past performance and future earnings, aiding investors in comparing valuations and identifying trends across industries.

ARM IPO Breakdown

Mule’s Musings • 346 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
💼 Business Valuation
  1. ARM is an important company in the IP industry, famous for its power efficiency and reduced instruction set.
  2. ARM's history includes significant milestones like going public in 1997 and being acquired by Softbank in 2016.
  3. The ARM IPO is highly anticipated, with the company aiming to list between 50-55 billion, showcasing its key role in the industry.

Nexus Mutual (Part 2) - Valuation

DeFi Education • 459 implied HN points • 01 Oct 21
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. Nexus Mutual is getting attention as more big investors start to enter the market. They might want insurance, which could help Nexus grow.
  2. Many regular investors might not see the need for insurance, but larger funds handling over $200 million will likely feel it's essential.
  3. The demand for insurance in the DeFi space is expected to rise, especially with institutional money looking for security in their investments.

Alternative Investment Guide #1 - Art

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 99 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Art investing can be a lucrative opportunity, with some estimates showing returns of around 9% to 14%.
  2. The art market is large and valued at over $1.5 trillion, but it can be tricky for newcomers due to its complexity and the influence of wealthy insiders.
  3. There are more ways than ever to start investing in art, including art funds and fractional ownership, making it accessible for beginners.

Death to Revenue Multiples: Long Live the DCF!

Equal Ventures • 59 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Revenue multiples have been traditionally used for valuations in the tech world, but they are proving to be ineffective in determining the true long-term value of businesses.
  2. Companies shifting focus from forecasting future cash flow to revenue growth have faced challenges, as revenue multiples don't necessarily reflect future profitability, leading to discrepancies in valuation.
  3. As competition accelerates in the tech industry, companies with strong market captivity and efficient growth strategies are prioritizing developing competitive advantages and generating long-term free cash flow over chasing revenue multiples.

The costs and benefits of TCFD disclosure

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Feb 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Companies that voluntarily follow TCFD are usually those more exposed to climate risk and with more resources like bigger workforces, larger boards, or dedicated sustainability committees.
  2. For large firms, voluntary TCFD disclosure is associated with higher profitability and valuations, but for smaller firms the compliance costs are relatively high and tend to reduce profitability.
  3. Because these disclosure costs disproportionately burden smaller companies, regulators are moving to soften or ease reporting requirements to reduce that strain.

New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing

Cobie • 171 implied HN points • 19 May 24
🔮 Crypto Valuation
  1. New token launches are tough to invest in because a lot of the price discovery happens in private markets, leaving regular investors with less opportunity. It's important to do your homework before jumping in.
  2. Higher valuations for new tokens now reflect more demand in the market, but many of these valuations don’t match the actual value of the tokens. It's key for investors to look deeper into the numbers behind the hype.
  3. Buyers should be cautious with low-float tokens, as they can be more easily manipulated. Understanding the float, FDV, and market demand is essential before investing.

Which profits matter most?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Operating profit (EBIT) is the main profit measure that moves share prices. Institutional investors also check net income to capture interest and other real costs.
  2. Gross profit or EBITDA is often presented as ‘profits before the bad stuff’ and can be misleading. Be wary of adjusted profit numbers that deviate from accounting standards.
  3. Which metric matters most depends on the market. In the US investors focus on profitability, while in the UK and Europe they pay more attention to past and future earnings growth because growth is scarcer there.

A simple take on AI, MBAs going back to finance and some Q1 valuation data

Bigfoot Capital • 39 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
💼 Business Valuation
  1. Zooming out from AI: Operators should focus on tangible ways to utilize new technologies rather than making risky moonshot bets on AI.
  2. Pendulum Swing: MBAs are increasingly choosing finance jobs over tech jobs as the job market fluctuates.
  3. Q1 Valuations: Uncertainty remains about the economy, but valuations have returned to historical trends with high burn rates posing challenges in the venture space.

Swiggy's IPO inches closer to trading, and is the stock market dangerously overvalued?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Swiggy's IPO is almost finished and it's expected to have a very high valuation. Many people are excited about it, but there are some concerns too.
  2. The stock market might be overvalued right now, which could be risky for investors. It's important to stay informed about the market trends.
  3. There are various economic factors influencing the market, like changes in inflation and company performance. Keeping an eye on these factors can help investors make better decisions.

ANNOUNCEMENT: The ValuationBot Research Desk is live

Valuabl • 1 implied HN point • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. A new service works like a 24/7 personal equity research team that automatically finds and validates investment ideas.
  2. It delivers a steady daily stream of ideas from liquid, investable companies and focuses only on the markets you actually invest in.
  3. You get full access to every report, valuation model, and Excel export so you can dig into the analysis and make clearer investment decisions.

Warren Buffett’s Rare Big Investing Mistake

Behavioral Value Investor • 148 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Even successful investors like Warren Buffett make mistakes, which is a crucial lesson for all investors.
  2. When investing, it's important to stick to your circle of competence to avoid big investing mistakes.
  3. Paying a high price for an investment with little room for error can be a risky move, highlighting the importance of a margin of safety.

Big tech stocks are surging. Why is that bearish?

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Big tech stocks have seen huge gains, primarily driving the rise of the S&P 500 this year. This doesn't mean the overall market is in trouble, though.
  2. Experts believe that the concentration of these tech stocks doesn't affect future market performance significantly, so there’s no need to worry.
  3. Many stocks outside of tech are doing well, and a lot of analysts expect major tech companies to keep rising in value over the next year.

Clouded Judgement 12.5.25 - Monopoly Money

Clouded Judgement • 3 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
💼 Business Valuation
  1. Many employees focus on the current dollar value of equity in startups, ignoring the risks tied to high valuations. This can lead them to miss the potential upsides of their equity in the long run.
  2. Founders face pressure to raise startup valuations to attract talent, but this can create a cycle of high expectations and underperformance. It's risky to inflate valuations without solid business metrics.
  3. Employees considering startups should evaluate their equity as a percentage of the company's potential growth, rather than just its worth at entry. Joining a startup is often about passion and potential, not just salary.

Sea Limited

Modern Value Investing • 19 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Sea Limited operates in three main segments: Digital Entertainment (Garena), E-commerce (Shopee), and Digital Financial Services (SeaMoney).
  2. Using a sum of the parts valuation approach, Sea Limited is considered undervalued, offering significant upside for long-term investors.
  3. Shopee is a dominant player in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market with a strong localized approach, mobile-first strategy, and a potential future valuation of $91 billion by 2033.

Clouded Judgement 11.28.25 - Q3 Earnings Check In

Clouded Judgement • 2 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
💼 Business Valuation
  1. Q3 has shown strong performance for software companies, with a year-over-year growth of 23% in net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). This suggests a positive trend in the industry.
  2. Valuation of SaaS companies is primarily based on revenue multiples, with high-growth companies having a median multiple of 15.2x. This indicates how investors assess the value of these businesses based on their growth potential.
  3. Operating metrics show that median growth rates are around 12% to 14%, with strong margins. This highlights that, while growth is good, many companies still need to improve their profitability.

Clouded Judgement 5.30.25 - Moats in the Age of AI

Clouded Judgement • 9 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💼 Business Valuation
  1. Moats are not permanent. They’re short-lived and companies need to keep evolving to stay ahead.
  2. Speed is crucial in today's market. The faster a company can develop and adapt, the better their chances of success.
  3. Building a moat is more about stacking small advantages quickly rather than a single strong defense.

Attempting to untangle the messy math behind the "Power Law"

Entry Level Investing • 84 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. The concept of the 'Power Law' in venture funding states that a few successful investments drive fund returns, not a normal distribution.
  2. Startup valuations are often based on revenue multiples, deviating from traditional valuation methods like free cash flow analysis.
  3. Overvaluation, excessive spending, and failure to grow into valuations can lead to down rounds, hurting startups and investors.

Back to Earth or Temporary Setback? Revisiting the FANGAM Stocks

Musings on Markets • 59 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. The FANGAM stocks have been key players in the US stock market, but their recent performance has been mixed. Companies like Netflix and Facebook saw big drops, while Amazon and Google surprised with strong results.
  2. Valuations of these companies suggest that Facebook is the most undervalued, as it struggles with its story and user numbers. In contrast, Netflix appears overvalued as it grapples with slowing growth and high content costs.
  3. Companies like Microsoft and Apple managed to stay out of controversies and continued to grow. Microsoft's recent acquisition of Activision shows its ambition, while Apple is benefiting from being seen as a privacy protector.

Clouded Judgement 7.4.25 - Happy 4th!

Clouded Judgement • 6 implied HN points • 04 Jul 25
💰 Finance Valuation
  1. Cloud software companies are valued based on their revenue forecasts. With many not making profits yet, revenue multiples are a key way to compare them.
  2. High growth software firms often have much higher revenue multiples than those growing at slower rates. This can help investors spot which companies are likely to grow more in the future.
  3. SaaS companies aim for long-term profits by focusing on growth in their early years. Metrics like cash flow from operations are important to understand a company’s financial health.