The hottest Debt Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: A Warning to Trump

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Government Public Policy Inflation Debt
  1. Biden's spending policies are causing high inflation and soaring public debt. This is leading to economic instability and a potential recession.
  2. Job growth is largely coming from government positions, while the private sector struggles to grow. This could harm the overall economy in the long run.
  3. Cutting government spending may hurt the economy temporarily, but supporting the private sector and reducing inflation could lead to a more stable future for American citizens.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

China Crumbles

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 16 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics China Economy Debt Real Estate Banks
  1. China's real estate market is facing significant challenges, with existing home prices dropping and outstanding property loans declining.
  2. Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are struggling with debt obligations and bankruptcy proceedings.
  3. Moody's downgrade of China's credit outlook indicates that the turmoil in the real estate sector is starting to impact the broader economy and banks.

Did the debt ceiling deal really save the US from bankruptcy?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 259 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Banking Economy Reserves
  1. The US's debt situation is a small part of the global debt puzzle, with rising interest rates creating challenges not only for the US but also for poorer countries dependent on dollar debt.
  2. The debt deal exacerbates the unproductive nature of debt as it has been used to replace income for individuals and constrain companies from expansion and investment in productive capacity.
  3. The financial system will face challenges including declining value of US treasuries impacting banking system resilience, inflation persisting, and US dollar losing hegemony due to rising debt and market liquidity issues.

L'ONDA D'URTO

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 157 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Market Analysis Monetary System
  1. Markets react impulsively to news, creating a sudden impact with amplified effects.
  2. The current economic system relies on debt-based currencies, leading to a continuous cycle of increasing debt and the need for new debts to pay off old ones.
  3. Observing unstable curves in economic indicators may indicate a system approaching a critical phase.

NUMERI ASTRONOMICI

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Debt Inflation Government
  1. Debt levels in America are rapidly increasing, with the first trillion taking 185 years and next trillion completed in just 6 months.
  2. Inflation can silently grow over time, culminating in a sudden and severe loss when it's too late, as seen in the case of Zimbabwe.
  3. The USA is dealing with unbelievably large numbers, including trillions and quadrillions, due to factors like derivatives.

Debt

Life in the 21st Century • 216 implied HN points • 26 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Debt Economy Politics History
  1. The politics and perception of debt have shifted over the last century, from deficit spending to austerity measures.
  2. The exponential growth of private debt, fueled by government policies and cheap credit, is a significant concern in the contemporary financial landscape.
  3. There is a growing need for a modern-day debt forgiveness or restructuring approach to address the increasing burden of debt on society.

Layered Money

The Dollar Endgame • 159 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Debt
  1. Understanding how the financial system operates in layers is crucial for designing an efficient monetary system.
  2. The modern financial system operates with different layers, each offering scaling solutions and varying levels of security, transparency, and operability.
  3. The layers of the financial system include the base layer with systems like FedWire, a layer for deposits, and a top layer for debt, all serving different needs of users in the economy.

The Most Important Thing About Money

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 13 Feb 22
💰 Finance Banking Credit Debt Investment Economics
  1. Credit is really important for the economy because it allows people to spend more than they currently have. When used wisely, it can help grow productivity and income.
  2. Debt cycles can happen when people borrow too much compared to what they can pay back. This can lead to economic downturns if many people struggle with their debt at the same time.
  3. DeFi, or decentralized finance, uses credit within the crypto world. It helps create new financial opportunities using cryptocurrencies and is seen as the future of finance.

01/30/24 - The entirety of Ukraine, working its ass off in total war for over a year, cannot match up to even Evergrande as a single company.

Moly’s Substack • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy Debt Employment Real Estate Finance
  1. Even the entirety of Ukraine in total war for over a year cannot match the debt of just a single company like Evergrande.
  2. Jobs like sorting packages and working in a production line can be extremely exhausting and pay very little.
  3. The debt of Evergrande alone is larger than the debt of the entirety of Ukraine, along with many other real estate companies combined.

Collateral Damage

Concoda • 405 implied HN points • 18 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics Markets Debt Monetary Policy
  1. Monetary leaders have created new risks while trying to eliminate old ones.
  2. There is a high demand for ultra-short-term Treasury paper due to an impending debt ceiling drama.
  3. Bilateral repos act as a sponge in the market, absorbing excess cash when the supply of bills is low.

The US national debt reached $34.5 trillion, an all-time record, but does it actually matter?

Global Markets Investor • 39 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Economy Investments Taxes Monetary Policy
  1. The US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days since June. This high level of debt poses challenges for the government and future generations.
  2. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 123.7%, near the all-time high. A high ratio decreases a country's ability to pay back debts and could lead to default or inflation-adjusted losses for investors.
  3. A country with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 130% historically has a high probability of default. High debt levels can limit future investments, impact economic growth, and reduce flexibility in responding to crises.

China forgives 23 loans for 17 African countries, expands ‘win-win’ trade and infrastructure projects

Geopolitical Economy Report • 219 implied HN points • 25 Aug 22
🌍 World Politics China Africa Debt
  1. China has forgiven 23 loans for 17 African countries, showing a commitment to mutually beneficial cooperation and deepening collaboration with the continent.
  2. Western accusations of Chinese 'debt-trap diplomacy' in Africa are baseless, as China has a history of cancelling debt and restructuring loans, aiming for win-win results.
  3. The US has been pressuring African countries to cut ties with China and Russia, while experts debunk the myth of the Chinese 'debt trap' narrative.

What is financial leverage?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 139 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing Credit Debt Risk management Market Analysis
  1. Financial leverage is when you borrow money to invest, potentially increasing both your profits and risks. It's like using a loan to buy a house, where you hope the value rises higher than what you owe.
  2. Different people and companies use leverage for various reasons, like individuals buying homes, companies expanding operations, or investors trying to make bigger profits in the stock market. But with the chance of higher gains comes the risk of bigger losses.
  3. The financial leverage ratio helps assess how much debt a company uses compared to its own money. A high ratio can mean a company is at risk if it can't pay back its debts, while a low ratio might suggest it's in a safer position.

Why is Debt-to-Income high?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Debt Housing Market
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.

A quick introduction to Debt [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy Debt Tech Companies Investing
  1. Debt is crucial to the economy as it helps finance investments that boost growth and productivity for governments and businesses, allowing them to expand and create more opportunities.
  2. Understanding good debt versus bad debt is important - good debt helps increase income or net worth over time, while bad debt costs money and limits financial opportunities.
  3. Tech companies often rely heavily on debt for growth, but it can be risky due to their business model of making money at scale and facing challenges in achieving profitability.

The Tale of Two Chinas

The Last Bear Standing • 60 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Policy Debt Investment
  1. China's economic growth was heavily reliant on property development and infrastructure, funded by the massive expansion of credit.
  2. The shift in Chinese government policy towards reforming the property sector and debt markets led to a significant impact on the economy.
  3. The Chinese financial system faced the risk of a crisis due to the extensive exposure to property debt and potential credit losses.

US debt is risky: A rant about evidence-based investing

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Debt Economics Bonds Market Analysis
  1. US Treasuries aren't actually risk-free. When the government borrows more without a plan to pay it back, the risk of default increases, which can lower bond prices.
  2. Many finance experts think the US is overspending, yet they still believe that investors will keep buying US debt without questioning it. This is a strange contradiction.
  3. It's important to ask for real proof when investing advice is given. Effective investing should be backed up with solid data, not just opinions or conventional wisdom.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.

💥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A.💥

PETITION • 19 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Airlines Debt Liquidity Investment
  1. GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy with a $950 million DIP commitment.
  2. The airline's growth played a significant role in Brazil's air travel expansion but faced challenges with its fleet, especially with Boeing 737 models.
  3. To address financial struggles, GOL made efforts to secure liquidity, negotiate leases, and handle outstanding obligations.

The Economic Fallout of Student Loan Forbearance Ending

Apricitas Economics • 50 implied HN points • 04 Dec 23
💰 Finance Debt Consumer spending Economic Impact Policy Changes
  1. Restarting student loan payments has led to higher delinquencies and lower consumer spending, despite some relief measures being in place.
  2. The end of student loan forbearance has caused a noticeable but modest impact on the economy as households resume making payments.
  3. Policy changes and billions in student debt forgiveness have eased the burden on borrowers, resulting in a decrease in total outstanding student loan debt.

Mara deleverages

Miner Weekly • 59 implied HN points • 07 Jan 23
💰 Finance Investment Corporate Regulation Debt Mining
  1. Marathon Digital adhered to its hodl strategy despite market turbulence in 2022, closing with 12,232 BTC and increased liquidity.
  2. Mara reduced revolving credit and paid off debts in December with capital injection, facing volatile stock prices.
  3. 36% of Mara's bitcoin holdings were restricted as of Dec. 31, secured against loans, with a safety net against a decrease in Bitcoin value.

$1 Trillion Per 100 Days: Is This the Year the Debt Bubble Explodes?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Government spending Federal Reserve Economic Growth National Debt
  1. The national debt is growing at an alarming rate, projected to reach $54 trillion within 10 years, with interest payments set to exceed defense spending.
  2. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is criticized for contributing to unsustainable debt, with 2020 alone seeing over $3 trillion in printing.
  3. Government spending continues to mask weaknesses in the US economy, with debt growth outpacing GDP growth for multiple quarters, driven by reckless deficit spending.