The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Housing Worries Are Building

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Economic Trends Home Sales
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Market Analysis Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Housing Market Debt Management
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In November, housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 1.289 million, marking a 1.8% decrease from October. The overall rate is also down 14.6% compared to November 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts saw a slight increase of 6.4% from October, while multi-family starts fell significantly by 27.6% year-over-year. This shows that the single-family housing market is performing better than multi-family units.
  3. Year-to-date, total housing starts are down 4.3%, but single-family starts are up 7.2%. Multi-family starts, however, have seen a decline of 30.1%, indicating a tough year for that segment of the market.

Updating my priors on missing middle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Urban Development Supply and Demand
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Interest Rates Housing Market Delinquencies
  1. Refinance activity surged in September and October, with over 300,000 borrowers taking advantage of lower interest rates. This was the highest refinance volume in 2.5 years.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies decreased slightly in October, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. However, serious delinquencies are still slowly rising year over year.
  3. Home prices saw a small increase in October, with growth edging up to 3.0%. But there are signs that this rate might soften again soon due to rising interest rates and potential demand pullbacks.

The Invention

Lewis Enterprises • 334 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Financialization Housing Market
  1. The evolution of mortgage-backed securities has significantly impacted the US housing market and the global financial system.
  2. The government guarantee on mortgages and the rise of MBS have reshaped the financial landscape, creating new layers of transactions and financial products.
  3. The financialization of the housing market has implications for social capital and civic engagement, affecting how Americans interact with each other and their communities.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic data Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Commodities Real Estate Investment Strategies
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales trends Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

Australia's coming housing bust

Asian Century Stocks • 275 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
💰 Finance Housing Market Interest Rates Economic Impact Market Trends
  1. Australia's housing market has experienced a long boom driven by various factors like low interest rates, commodity exports, and immigration.
  2. The affordability of Australian properties is a concern with high housing market values, low rental yields, and high household debt compared to income.
  3. Rising interest rates, declining job market, and decreasing migration from mainland China could lead to a potential housing market slump in Australia.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Financial Systems Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Indicators
  1. Serious delinquency rates for single-family homes slightly increased in September. This means a small rise in the number of homeowners who are late on their mortgage payments.
  2. Multi-family delinquency rates also went up, hitting levels not seen since 2011. This points to more challenges for those managing multiple rental units.
  3. Despite the increases, overall delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic lows. This suggests that the housing market is still stronger than it was during the worst of the pandemic.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economics Investments Mortgage Rates
  1. House prices are gradually increasing, with a 4.2% rise year-over-year noted in the Case-Shiller National Index. This suggests the housing market is still active but may slow down soon.
  2. The monthly increase in house prices has been steady, showing growth for 19 consecutive months. This indicates a long-term positive trend in the housing market.
  3. Future outlooks for house prices in 2024 are being discussed, hinting at ongoing changes and developments that could impact buyers and sellers alike.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Interest Rates Inventory Economic Impact Home Prices
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Behavioral Finance
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economy
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.

Rental Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 98 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investing Economy Housing Market Rental market
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.

Why more housing appears to make things worse

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Supply Demand Economic Impact Urban Development
  1. About 30-40% of people don't believe increasing housing supply will lower prices or rents.
  2. In cities with limited housing supply, population growth can lead to decreased housing availability, impacting affordability.
  3. Cities that don't build enough housing can have negative impacts on low-income residents, forcing displacement and exacerbating housing affordability issues.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 205 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index showed a 4.8% year-over-year increase in home prices in October.
  2. There have been consistent month-over-month increases in the Case-Shiller National Index, following previous decreases.
  3. Various reports indicate that house prices are continuing to rise year-over-year in November, reaching new all-time highs.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research
  1. The national house price index increased by 3.9% from last year, showing steady growth in home values.
  2. Most cities saw home prices rise month-to-month, but some places like Los Angeles and Miami experienced declines.
  3. While year-over-year growth is still positive, the pace of increase is slowing down, indicating that the housing market might be stabilizing.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales Data Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Local housing markets saw their first year-over-year sales increase since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the real estate industry.
  2. The data includes comparisons to October 2019, showing how current markets stack up against pre-pandemic times.
  3. Over 40 local housing markets across the US are being tracked for this analysis. This gives a broad view of housing trends in different regions.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Interest Rates Economic Growth Affordability Housing Market
  1. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-Year Treasury Yield, which reacts to the economy's growth and inflation expectations. Even though the Fed cut interest rates, mortgage rates have actually gone up because of the rising Treasury Yield.
  2. Currently, the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is at 7.26%, the highest since July, showing a steady rise despite expectations for a decrease. This rise has persisted for four consecutive weeks.
  3. High mortgage rates and low affordability are causing home sales to decline significantly, with September recording the lowest closed sales of existing homes since 2012. Mortgage applications also dropped sharply, indicating a cooling housing market.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Housing Market Credit Supply and Demand
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Inventory Sales
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices
  1. The rise in home prices is mainly due to obstruction of urban housing rather than urban productivity.
  2. High urban rents have increased nationally post-2008 due to federal lending policies lowering housing production everywhere.
  3. Rising rents explain almost all of the increase in home prices, with excess rent accounting for a significant portion of residential real estate value.

January 2024 Residential Construction and New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Home Prices Construction Cost Analysis
  1. The divergence between the average price of new homes and existing homes signals obstructed supply in the housing market.
  2. Changes in mortgage rates and market conditions can influence the size and types of new homes being built and sold.
  3. Reforms allowing for more new homes to be built could lower costs and reduce the price of existing homes.

Follow-Up Against Agglomeration Economies

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics Housing Market Urban planning
  1. Cities with blocked growth experience a process of migration due to housing costs rising, impacting residents' average incomes.
  2. Affordability in cities like Boston, NYC, and LA could have been maintained if they grew at rates similar to other cities like Oklahoma City or Salt Lake City.
  3. Limited growth approval in certain cities contributes to housing deprivation and lack of affordability, not an overflow of demand.