The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Invention

Lewis Enterprises • 334 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Financialization Housing Market
  1. The evolution of mortgage-backed securities has significantly impacted the US housing market and the global financial system.
  2. The government guarantee on mortgages and the rise of MBS have reshaped the financial landscape, creating new layers of transactions and financial products.
  3. The financialization of the housing market has implications for social capital and civic engagement, affecting how Americans interact with each other and their communities.

Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Housing Market Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.
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Scattered Thoughts on Employment and Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Employment Construction Labor Market Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Positive labor market reports with sustainable wage growth and projected real growth
  2. Residential construction employment is growing, productivity concerns, and insights on housing market functionality
  3. Analysis of employment flows provides insights into economic trends and potential indicators for labor market breakdown

The consumption basket we call "housing"

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💼 Business Housing Market Urban Development Housing supply
  1. In expensive cities, people oppose public amenities because they can lead to displacement when bundled with scarce housing.
  2. A city's housing demand can be categorized into shelter, neighborhood amenities, metropolitan area scarcity, and endowments.
  3. Metro area scarcity causes prices to rise uniformly across neighborhoods, impacting affordability for households with lower incomes.

Scholarship on the Mortgage Moral Panic

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Housing Market Regulations Mortgages Homeownership
  1. Regulatory changes post-Great Recession have made small dollar loans less available, leading to high denial rates
  2. Mortgage standards can create barriers, pushing buyers towards riskier agreements and impacting property prices
  3. Competition from all-cash buyers is high for small dollar homes, affecting mortgage approval rates and market dynamics

America's Missing Empty Homes

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing vacancy rates in the US are at historic lows, indicating a very tight market with rising prices.
  2. Housing vacancy rates don't just consider empty units, but also look at what's available for rent or purchase.
  3. The shortage of housing in the US requires substantial new construction to meet the demand and balance the market.

Housing Can’t Be Affordable and an Investment

Good Reason • 3 HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Wealth Inflation Income
  1. US housing has become extremely expensive, with a median single family home selling for over $400K and prices rising more than 7% annually since 2012.
  2. If housing prices continue to rise at 7% annually, they'll nearly double in 10 years and nearly quadruple in 20 years, making homes unaffordable for many.
  3. Treating housing as an investment has consequences, creating an underclass unable to afford homes and pushing more people into debt, cramped living situations, and even homelessness.

Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. The number of single-family units built for rent almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, showing a significant increase in this housing trend.
  2. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single-family units, highlighting a shift in the housing market.
  3. While single-family completions built for sale saw a decrease, completed units built for rent were up 21% year-over-year, potentially affecting rental market supply and rent prices.

YIMBies Overpromise

Wooly's Post Repository • 19 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💼 Business Real Estate Data Analysis Housing Market Urban Development Economics
  1. The data on housing prices and construction can be confusing and counterintuitive, leading to difficulties in drawing clear conclusions.
  2. YIMBY goals require a significant amount of construction to impact housing prices, but achieving such high construction rates can be challenging.
  3. Confidence in real estate research should be lowered due to the complexity and potential errors in the data, making it important to approach conclusions with caution.

Unlock a Housing Boom through Depreciation Bonuses

Arpitrage • 2 HN points • 13 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investment Economic Impact Housing Market
  1. Investment taxes play a crucial role in addressing the housing crisis by impacting housing affordability.
  2. Tax laws in the 1980s, especially changes in depreciation schedules, significantly influenced commercial real estate production.
  3. Adjusting accounting rules, like shortening depreciation schedules or allowing full expensing, could encourage a construction boom and potentially reduce rents.

Introduction: The Housing Crisis, What We Do and Do Not Know.

The Origins of the Housing Crisis • 79 implied HN points • 07 Jul 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Crisis Housing Market Policy Impact Historical Analysis Financial system
  1. The average house price being higher over time may not necessarily indicate a crisis as other factors like larger houses or increased income availability can contribute to it.
  2. The complaint in the housing crisis is not just about higher prices overall, but about lack of affordability for every property, especially compared to historical norms and international standards.
  3. Britain's housing crisis has deep roots dating back to the 1960s due to a mix of demand subsidies and supply limits, leading to market volatility and historical financial crises like in 1974-75 and 2008-2009.

Hot take monthly: tech layoff apocalypse, millennials ruin everything, and AI killed the rock star coder

startups and econ (Fais Khan) • 7 implied HN points • 08 May 23
🕹 Technology Startups Tech Trends AI Housing Market Software Engineering
  1. Big Tech companies have gone through significant layoffs, but their headcounts remain substantial due to unique hiring practices.
  2. Millennials are facing challenges in the housing market with high rent rates and a potential oversupply of rental properties.
  3. AI advancements are changing the coding landscape, but the role of human coders remains crucial for complex architectural decisions.