The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

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Housing Starts Increased to 1.404 million Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Housing starts rose in December to a 1,404,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 6.2% from November but 7.3% below December 2024.
  2. Building permits climbed to a 1,448,000 SAAR in December, improving month-to-month but still modestly below a year earlier; single-family activity was weaker while multi-family starts increased.
  3. For all of 2025, total starts were down 0.6% versus 2024, with single-family starts falling about 6.9% and multi-family rising roughly 18%, and housing units under construction remain elevated.

Do you ever wonder? Podcast

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. A podcast interview explains the main forces shaping today’s housing market in a clear, approachable way.
  2. The conversation is concise—under an hour—so it’s a quick way to get up to speed on key ideas.
  3. It serves as an accessible introduction to the speaker’s perspective on housing, useful for newcomers and busy listeners.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Existing home sales likely ran at about a 4.0 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in January, down roughly 8% from December and slightly below last January.
  2. Adverse late‑January weather and fewer business days probably reduced closed sales, so the unadjusted year‑over‑year decline should look larger.
  3. Median single‑family home prices were about 1% higher year over year, and the consensus NAR estimate for January sales (around 4.25M) may be too high given limited local data and upcoming revised seasonal factors.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Months-of-supply is back to pre-pandemic levels while 2025 home sales were the lowest since 1995 (tying 2024), which is putting downward pressure on prices, especially where inventory is high.
  2. Overall house prices were mostly unchanged year-over-year at the end of 2025 — the Case-Shiller National index was up about 1.4% YoY (Composite 10 +2.0%, Composite 20 +1.4%) — and recent month-to-month gains follow earlier declines, though Case-Shiller data lags by several months.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have led to a pickup in purchase mortgage applications recently, but that increase has not yet translated into significantly more closed sales.

The current high value of residential investment

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. A long shortfall in residential construction since the mid-2000s has left roughly a 15 million‑home gap and driven net residential investment down from a sustainable ~2% of GDP to about 0.6%, creating a cumulative $7 trillion deficit.
  2. That shortage has inflated land rents across many cities, acting as a regressive transfer from renters and new buyers to existing owners and raising nominal GDP and inflation without raising real GDP.
  3. Building many more homes—especially rental and 'missing middle' units bought by investors—would replace land rents with structure rents, lower housing costs over time, and shift wealth away from landowners toward renters and new homeowners.
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Homeownership “Wealth” Is A Fallacy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing is primarily a consumption good you live in, not a reliable financial investment, because ongoing costs like maintenance, taxes, insurance, and transaction fees erode any supposed appreciation gains.
  2. Policy proposals like large MBS purchases, allowing 401(k) withdrawals for down payments, mortgage portability, or ultra-long loans are economically misguided and tend to require more debt or money printing, distorting capital markets and favoring existing homeowners.
  3. Tapping home equity or inflating home prices doesn’t create net wealth—selling to realize gains is offset by higher purchase prices, fees, and loan liabilities—so policies that prop up housing prices end up shifting costs onto younger buyers and non-homeowners.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. The NAR moved to an earlier monthly reporting schedule, which reduces the early sample available for projections and makes larger revisions to reported sales more likely.
  2. Inventory is rising — active single-family listings are up week-over-week and substantially up year-over-year, suggesting inventory may have bottomed early and that the usual spring pickup in March could be stronger.
  3. Sales and new listings remain muted overall — December showed small YoY gains on an unadjusted basis but 2025 had the weakest annual sales since 1995, and new listings are still well below 2019 levels in many markets.

When Owning a House Is a Fantasy

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1024 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
🎭️ Culture Housing Market
  1. Many people dream of owning a home, but for some, like the author, it can feel impossible due to high prices and competition. This dream can turn into a frustrating obsession.
  2. The author thought building a house would be better than buying because of the insane prices for existing homes. However, the complexities of construction proved to be a huge challenge.
  3. The pursuit of a home can sometimes lead to stressful situations and financial worries, making it a journey that can take a toll on mental health.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Existing-home sales fell to a 3.91 million SAAR in January, down 8.4% from December and 4.4% year-over-year.
  2. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, so prices are slightly higher even as sales cool.
  3. Inventory edged down to 1.22 million while months-of-supply rose to 3.7 months, which is about the same supply level as before the pandemic.

February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
  2. National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
  3. Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Mortgage delinquencies rose in the fourth quarter of 2025 to a 4.26% rate, up about 27 basis points from the prior quarter and roughly 28 basis points year‑over‑year, while foreclosure starts held at 0.20%.
  2. Delinquencies increased across conventional, FHA, and VA loans, with FHA showing the biggest deterioration — about 11.52% delinquent and a notable jump in 90+ day delinquencies and foreclosure inventory.
  3. The rise appears linked to the expiration of pandemic-era FHA relief and uneven labor market conditions, and newer loan cohorts (2022–23) are struggling more than 2020–21 vintages, though improving FHA originations and moderating rates could help ease stress.

Hollywood's Real Estate Romance is Over

The Ankler • 923 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
🎭️ Culture Housing Market
  1. The Hollywood industry's writers are facing uncertainty about future work, impacting their ability to invest in real estate.
  2. The soaring real estate market prices in L.A. are making homeownership increasingly unattainable for writers and other entertainment professionals.
  3. The writer strike, combined with other factors like interest rates and taxes, is contributing to a slowdown in real estate transactions across Los Angeles.

October 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. September and October residential construction updates are now available and cover recent activity for those months.
  2. Full details are behind a subscription paywall, but there is an option to claim a free post or subscribe to read everything.
  3. The write-up includes detailed month-by-month construction reporting for readers who access the full content.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
  2. Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
  3. Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

Have rents stopped rising?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Rent inflation has been much higher for lower-income families than for higher-income families, and public statistics don’t capture that difference well.
  2. Rents appear to have flattened since 2022, prompting the question of whether rents have stopped rising or are starting to correct.
  3. New home completions rose by roughly 600,000 a year after COVID, but whether that is enough to stop rent inflation depends on housing supply elasticity; rough estimates suggest about 2.5 million units a year might be needed to neutralize rent pressure.

C-Span Washington Journal

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. A guest discussed the 2026 housing market outlook on C-SPAN Washington Journal.
  2. The conversation covered basics about where the housing market is headed and the key factors that led us here.
  3. The roughly 45-minute segment included live caller questions and a link to watch the full discussion.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Active housing inventory has risen sharply — active listings are up about 12% year‑over‑year and this marks many consecutive months of inventory gains, bringing supply closer to pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Existing‑home sales fell in 2025 to the lowest level since 1995, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  3. The new‑home market is disappointing: builders are carrying many completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete with increased existing‑home inventory.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. December existing home sales look mostly unchanged year‑over‑year, and 2025 may end up as one of the weakest sales years since 1995.
  2. Inventory and listing trends are mixed: new listings were down about 4.5% year‑over‑year while active inventory was up roughly 9–10% YoY, with both measures still differing from 2019 levels.
  3. December closings mainly reflect contracts signed in October and November when mortgage rates averaged about 6.25%, and working‑day/seasonal adjustments can noticeably change the reported year‑over‑year results.

NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. The Market Tightness Index is 32, well below the breakeven 50, which signals looser market conditions and points to lower rent growth and higher apartment vacancies.
  2. Sales activity has slowed — the Sales Volume Index dropped to 47, indicating a pullback in deal flow even though many respondents saw little change quarter-to-quarter.
  3. Financing is more available: the Debt Financing Index is 75 and the Equity Financing Index is 53, reflecting improved borrowing and capital availability after a modest decline in long-term yields.

Urban Paradise Lost?: The History of Seoul's Only Planned City

S(ubstack)-Bahn • 301 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Wirye New Town is a planned city in Seoul that looks great on the outside, with tall buildings and parks, but residents are unhappy due to missing public transport. They have protested and even sued the government over these transportation issues.
  2. Housing prices in Wirye spiked quickly, but now many homeowners feel anxious as prices have dropped significantly. The reliance on real estate for wealth in South Korea adds to their stress during this market instability.
  3. The city’s complex administrative setup creates confusion for residents, as the differing regulations lead to issues with services and community life. This mixed governance makes it hard for residents to get the help they need.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
  2. In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
  3. New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. The NAR sharply revised up its November median existing-home prices—especially in the Northeast—so preliminary numbers understated recent price gains and further revisions are possible.
  2. Because the NAR released its report earlier than usual, local realtor/MLS data were limited and some sales and inventory figures (for example versus Realtor.com) look inconsistent or may reflect definitional changes.
  3. Most of the recent rise in 30‑year mortgage rates comes from a wider primary/secondary mortgage spread driven by higher GSE guarantee fees and increased servicing/origination and regulatory costs, while higher MBS yields account for only about 3 basis points of the roughly 57 bp increase.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Asking rents are falling nationwide year-over-year and have been declining for many consecutive months according to multiple indexes.
  2. Rising supply and weak demand — driven by slower household formation, a construction surge in multifamily units, and higher vacancies — are keeping downward pressure on rents.
  3. Trends vary by type and place: single-family rents have risen modestly while multifamily and many metros show declines, with immigration policy and seasonal slowdowns also influencing demand.

Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Home sales are about 24% lower than pre-pandemic levels, showing a significant slowdown. This means people are buying fewer homes than before the pandemic started.
  2. The number of homes available for sale is increasing, which might lead to price drops in some areas later. More listings and higher inventory could mean better deals for buyers.
  3. Next month's sales might be steady due to lower mortgage rates, but comparisons to last year will be tricky because sales were already low. It's a mixed bag for the housing market ahead.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. 2025 saw one of the weakest years for existing home sales since 1995 and could be the lowest year on record since then.
  2. Early December data show a small year‑over‑year rise in sales in early‑reporting markets, but new listings fell about 9.6% while active inventory climbed about 12.7%.
  3. Compared with December 2019, new listings and sales are much lower (new listings down about 28%) while inventory is much higher in most areas, and mortgage rates around 6.25% in Oct–Nov likely restrained buyer activity.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. A large wave of foreclosures is unlikely because lending standards are solid and most homeowners have substantial equity, so distressed sales shouldn’t trigger cascading price declines.
  2. Delinquencies and foreclosure activity have increased modestly year‑over‑year (30/60/90‑day delinquencies and foreclosure starts are up), but overall levels remain historically low.
  3. The recent rise is concentrated in certain loan types (notably FHA and resumed VA activity) and REO dollar values have climbed, so expect a modest uptick in foreclosures rather than a systemic crisis.

New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. New single-family home sales ran at a 737,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, essentially unchanged from September and about 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
  2. Supply is elevated: months of supply stayed at 7.9 months (above the normal 4–6 month range), with completed homes, units under construction, and 'not started' inventories all high and 'not started' at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is roughly 15% below its peak, mainly because the mix of homes sold shifted toward lower-priced units.

"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Architecture firm billings have been in prolonged decline, with the ABI below 50 for most of the last three years and at 48.5 in December, indicating contracting demand. Because the ABI typically leads CRE investment by 9–12 months, this points to a likely slowdown in commercial real estate investment through 2026.
  2. Multifamily residential billings are especially weak—below 50 for 41 consecutive months and at 45.5—so new multifamily starts are likely to weaken further. This sector looks more vulnerable than institutional or other commercial work.
  3. Overall construction spending is down about 1.0% year‑over‑year, with private residential down 1.3% and private nonresidential down 2.6%, while public construction is up roughly 2.1%. That split means overall construction demand remains fairly soft despite modest public spending gains.

The Invention

Lewis Enterprises • 334 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. The evolution of mortgage-backed securities has significantly impacted the US housing market and the global financial system.
  2. The government guarantee on mortgages and the rise of MBS have reshaped the financial landscape, creating new layers of transactions and financial products.
  3. The financialization of the housing market has implications for social capital and civic engagement, affecting how Americans interact with each other and their communities.

Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. year mortgage rates are about 6.3%, putting them back in a 6–7% range that may be the new normal similar to pre-2008 levels.
  2. Cuts to the Fed Funds rate don’t automatically lower long-term yields — the 10‑year Treasury has risen even as the Fed moved toward cuts.
  3. After more than a decade of unusually low rates, the current rise back to pre‑crisis ranges signals a durable shift in the interest-rate environment.

My Neighbor Pays $1,000 in Taxes on a $2M Home

Jay's Data Stream • 11 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Property tax rules like Prop 13 (and the partial change under Prop 19) create perverse incentives that can keep homes empty and distort the housing market, because low assessed taxes make owners reluctant to rent or sell.
  2. Buying a home is highly timing-sensitive and can be very costly when plans change — mortgage interest, taxes, transaction fees, and the lost investment opportunity can make ownership much worse than renting and investing instead.
  3. San Francisco looks bullish over the long run because supply is effectively frozen by regulations while tech/AI-driven wealth is likely to boost demand, so buying only makes sense with a 10+ year horizon.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Inflation-adjusted national house prices are about 2.7% below their recent 2022 peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 is roughly 3.0% below.
  2. Nominal house prices are very close to record highs—about 0.3% under the February 2025 peak—and in real terms national prices remain about 9.7% above the 2006 bubble peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.9% from its 2022 peak, and rising inventory plus higher inflation have pressured real prices, which fell roughly 2% in 2025.

Housing Snapshot

Daily Chartbook • 1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Freddie Mac’s national house price index rose 1.0% year‑over‑year in November, but that is a new cycle low and monthly gains are very small, so overall growth is slowing and could turn negative sometime in 2026.
  2. Nineteen states and D.C. remain below their prior price peaks and many cities have large drops — Punta Gorda is down about 21% from its recent peak and Austin is down over 17%.
  3. Rising inventory and weak sales are reducing upward price pressure, and Freddie Mac and NAR data suggest other indexes like Case‑Shiller will likely show a similar slowdown.

Australia's coming housing bust

Asian Century Stocks • 275 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Australia's housing market has experienced a long boom driven by various factors like low interest rates, commodity exports, and immigration.
  2. The affordability of Australian properties is a concern with high housing market values, low rental yields, and high household debt compared to income.
  3. Rising interest rates, declining job market, and decreasing migration from mainland China could lead to a potential housing market slump in Australia.

Another Step in my Mortgage Radicalization

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. The mortgage crackdown played a big role in causing the Great Recession. It disrupted the housing market and led to a lot of financial trouble.
  2. Historical patterns show that residential investment usually rises after the yield curve un-inverts, but that didn't happen in the late 2000s. Instead, investment remained low in 2025, unlike previous cycles.
  3. Today, the housing market is influenced by a complicated mix of factors, including high interest rates and potential recession signals. This could impact how homes are built and sold in the future.