The hottest Valuation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Attempting to untangle the messy math behind the "Power Law"

Entry Level Investing • 84 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Valuation Business Models
  1. The concept of the 'Power Law' in venture funding states that a few successful investments drive fund returns, not a normal distribution.
  2. Startup valuations are often based on revenue multiples, deviating from traditional valuation methods like free cash flow analysis.
  3. Overvaluation, excessive spending, and failure to grow into valuations can lead to down rounds, hurting startups and investors.

Sea Limited

Modern Value Investing • 19 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Valuation E-commerce
  1. Sea Limited operates in three main segments: Digital Entertainment (Garena), E-commerce (Shopee), and Digital Financial Services (SeaMoney).
  2. Using a sum of the parts valuation approach, Sea Limited is considered undervalued, offering significant upside for long-term investors.
  3. Shopee is a dominant player in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market with a strong localized approach, mobile-first strategy, and a potential future valuation of $91 billion by 2033.

Death to Revenue Multiples: Long Live the DCF!

Equal Ventures • 59 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
💰 Finance Valuation Investing Technology Industry Cash Flow Competition
  1. Revenue multiples have been traditionally used for valuations in the tech world, but they are proving to be ineffective in determining the true long-term value of businesses.
  2. Companies shifting focus from forecasting future cash flow to revenue growth have faced challenges, as revenue multiples don't necessarily reflect future profitability, leading to discrepancies in valuation.
  3. As competition accelerates in the tech industry, companies with strong market captivity and efficient growth strategies are prioritizing developing competitive advantages and generating long-term free cash flow over chasing revenue multiples.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

A simple take on AI, MBAs going back to finance and some Q1 valuation data

Bigfoot Capital • 39 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
💼 Business AI Finance Tech Valuation
  1. Zooming out from AI: Operators should focus on tangible ways to utilize new technologies rather than making risky moonshot bets on AI.
  2. Pendulum Swing: MBAs are increasingly choosing finance jobs over tech jobs as the job market fluctuates.
  3. Q1 Valuations: Uncertainty remains about the economy, but valuations have returned to historical trends with high burn rates posing challenges in the venture space.

Clouded Judgement 1.19.24 - The Bar for Going Public

Clouded Judgement • 2 HN points • 19 Jan 24
💼 Business Finance Metrics Investing Market Analysis Valuation
  1. The bar for going public is set very high, with companies needing impressive metrics like $200m ARR, 50% YoY growth, and over 120% net retention.
  2. New IPOs face challenges like concentrated ownership, lower liquidity, high stock dilution, and the need to build trust with public market investors.
  3. Startups aiming to go public should focus on metrics attractive to public market investors, including understanding stock compensation and equity dilution.

Clouded Judgement 5.19.23

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💼 Business Software Stocks Earnings Valuation Metrics
  1. Cloud software companies saw a boost in stock prices, but operating performance is not as positive.
  2. Companies added less new ARR in Q1 '23 compared to the previous year, indicating a headwind in new bookings.
  3. Median revenue growth rate declined in Q1 '23, along with net retention rates, CAC payback periods, but FCF margins showed improvement.

Clouded Judgement 5.26.23

Clouded Judgement • 12 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💼 Business Finance Software Earnings Valuation Metrics
  1. Snowflake reported weakening consumption trends in April/May compared to Feb/March.
  2. The change in data retention policies by customers was a big factor in consumption weakness for Snowflake.
  3. Snowflake's report raises questions about the anticipated acceleration in consumption software and highlights the volatility of consumption models.

Clouded Judgement 6.23.23 - Atlas Consumption and Q1 Earnings Trends

Clouded Judgement • 10 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Software Metrics Valuation
  1. MongoDB Atlas consumption trends showed a drop in Q2 of last year but picked up in Q1 and may continue. Monitoring this trend is key.
  2. Quarterly metrics trends like growth, net retention, sales efficiency, and FCF margins have been fluctuating in the recent quarters.
  3. Valuation metrics like EV/NTM revenue multiples and growth rates are important for understanding the relative valuation of software companies.

Aswath Damodaran's Narrative and Numbers

Joe Tourville • 4 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Valuation Investment Narrative Numbers Corporate
  1. Investors often make the mistake of favoring either storytelling or data in corporate valuation instead of blending both.
  2. Compelling narratives can drive corporate value while numbers provide grounding and empirical evidence.
  3. Narrative-based valuation by Aswath Damodaran emphasizes the marriage of narratives and numbers for a more comprehensive view of a company's worth.

The Nvidia Surge

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Companies Earnings Valuation
  1. Nvidia is experiencing an incredible surge in its stock price, reaching historic levels of growth which are uncommon for a company of its size.
  2. Nvidia has surpassed major companies in market value and stock performance, becoming one of the top companies globally.
  3. Despite the impressive growth, there are concerns about Nvidia's future, such as competition, supply chain risks, and the hype surrounding AI driving its valuation.

Improving valuations through better governance

Klement on Investing • 0 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Governance Valuation Liquidity Corporate Governance
  1. Improving share liquidity may not be the best way to increase company valuations. Focus on improving corporate governance instead.
  2. Increasing share liquidity by reducing the bid-ask spread can lead to a significant increase in company valuation, compared to measures like larger boards or institutional ownership.
  3. Improving corporate governance, measured by indices like ISS Board Quality scores, can have a more significant impact on increasing company valuations than just focusing on liquidity.

Vol. 4, No. 5 — r/IPO

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investment Market Stocks IPO Valuation
  1. Reddit is going public with an IPO, but details are vague - be cautious as expected valuation seems high
  2. Investors interested in Reddit's IPO should consider their portfolio and the offer price before deciding to buy shares
  3. Reddit has a successful platform and valuable data, but potential investors should be wary of the frothy expected valuation typical of IPOs

Part 1: Deep dive writeup on Albemarle ($ALB)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Trading Earnings Valuation
  1. Albemarle (ALB) is a company expected to show strong revenue and earnings growth due to the increasing demand for lithium from the EV industry.
  2. ALB is considered undervalued, trading at a low multiple of earnings despite the positive growth projections.
  3. Analysts are cautious about ALB's future performance, but if EV adoption remains strong, the stock could outperform.

Are US technology stocks in a new bubble?

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 04 Apr 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Valuation Tech Stocks
  1. The analysis of US technology stocks being in a bubble is crucial as historical data showed the tech sector's previous dramatic drop, which took over 15 years to recover from, making it a significant risk for investors.
  2. The current market scenario, with factors like Quantitative Easing and heavy government intervention, makes a complete repeat of the past bubble unlikely. However, even a 20-30% drop could be painful for investors, given the high levels of capital at risk.
  3. US households now hold nearly 50% of equities in their portfolios, similar to the levels seen in the early 2000s, raising concerns about the amount of capital exposed. Examining historical measures and leading indicators will be key to determine if US tech stocks are overvalued or in a bubble.

Dropsuite

Nihar’s Thoughts on Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Valuation Competition Risks
  1. Dropsuite is a fast-growing company offering online backup services for SMBs through MSPs.
  2. The market undervalues Dropsuite due to misconceptions about its business model and differentiation in the online backup market.
  3. Dropsuite has a clear path to profitability and potential market cap growth by 2028, but faces risks from distributor concentration and competitive market dynamics.

Trade Alert 1/8/24

Business Breakdowns • 0 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Banking Technology Growth Valuation
  1. The company Nu Holdings has shown remarkable growth, appealing to an underbanked market.
  2. Nubank's strong moat is based on being a low-cost producer, driving customer satisfaction.
  3. When considering Nubank's valuation, the potential for growth in revenue and market share projections can offer significant returns over time.

Deep dive on Axon ($AXON)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investment Earnings Valuation Risks
  1. Axon, formerly known as Taser, is a company worth paying attention to in the investment world.
  2. Paid subscribers of Jonah's Growth Stock Deep Dives get in-depth analysis on stocks and access to investment portfolios.
  3. Detailed information on Axon, such as stock performance, market cap, and financial reports, is available for those interested in investing.

Deep dive on Spotify ($SPOT)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investment Company analysis Earnings Reports Valuation
  1. Jonah's Growth Stock Deep Dives offers detailed insights for paid subscribers on Spotify and other investment opportunities.
  2. Spotify ($SPOT) had an IPO in April 2018 with varying stock prices and market performance.
  3. Deep dive content on Spotify covers aspects like business model, competitive advantages, risks, and valuation, aimed at aiding investment decisions.

Deep dive on Toast ($TOST)

Jonah’s Growth Stocks • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Earnings Valuation Business
  1. Paid subscribers to Jonah's Growth Stock Deep Dives get detailed insights and access to investment portfolio updates.
  2. Toast ($TOST) is a company based in Boston, Massachusetts, with details on its IPO, stock price, market cap, and more.
  3. The post covers an outline with sections like Company Background, Opportunity, Competitive Advantages, Valuation, and more for paid subscribers.