In My Tribe

In My Tribe explores complex societal, political, and economic issues with a focus on skepticism, the importance of epistemology, and the critique of managerial elites and institutional dynamics. It addresses contemporary social debates, including drug policy, gender roles, and the influence of libertarianism, while promoting intellectual discussions.

Societal and Epistemic Analysis Political and Economic Views Drug Policy and Regulation Gender Dynamics in Institutions Racial Perceptions in Legal Systems Generational Cultural Shifts Evolutionary Perspectives on Behavior Managerial Class Critique Cultural and Political Discussions Religious Authority in Modern Societies Financial Regulation Economics and Sociology Political Beliefs Formation Libertarianism Health Insurance Policy

The hottest Substack posts of In My Tribe

And their main takeaways

Lyman Stone on the fertility decline

425 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Social Trends Cultural values Psychology Education
  1. People are having fewer children because they believe they should. This is influenced by cultural changes rather than just economics.
  2. Declining marriage rates are a big reason for lower actual family sizes compared to desired family sizes. When people marry later or not at all, they tend to have fewer kids.
  3. Education is seen as a factor that leads to lower fertility, but it's complicated. In some cases, better education can lead people to delay marriage and parenthood.

AI in Meta Land

455 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Social media Video Games Virtual reality
  1. Meta plans to use AI to create millions of AI-generated users on its platforms. This could change how we interact online, possibly focusing more on fiction than reality.
  2. Using AI in social media might make it feel like an immersive video game. People could interact with dynamic AI characters, making learning fun and engaging.
  3. While there are concerns about addiction and harm from interacting with bots, these interactions might actually be less harmful than current social media interactions with real people.

Accountability and Authority

683 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💼 Business Management Bureaucracy Leadership Accountability Authority
  1. Clear job descriptions should state the authority and the accountability of a role. This helps everyone know who is responsible for what.
  2. Bureaucracy tends to make it hard to point fingers when something goes wrong. In businesses, leaders try to keep accountability clear, unlike in government.
  3. When people have less authority in their jobs, it's harder to hold them accountable for results. Finding the right balance is crucial for effectiveness.

Team Technocrat vs. Team Woke

774 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Voters Campaigns Political theory
  1. The Democratic Party has two main groups: Team Technocrat and Team Woke. Both seem to be trying to gain influence after the recent election.
  2. The outcome of the election is being interpreted differently, and it's not a clear win or loss for either faction. Events leading up to the 2028 election could change everything.
  3. Swing voters might not see certain candidates, like Kamala Harris, as legitimate. They tend to prefer candidates who seem more credible and have campaigned actively.

Social Learning Links, 2/13/2025

273 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Ideologies Youth Politics Public Discourse Societal Trends
  1. At the World Economic Forum this year, many attendees showed a surprising rightward shift in their views, with a strong presence of pro-Trump sentiments among participants.
  2. A group of young conservative men hosts debate parties, reflecting their deep engagement with intellectual discussions, often in contrast to older conservative perspectives.
  3. Making actions easier or harder can shape behaviors; if antisocial behavior is easy, it often increases, so we need to think carefully about the barriers we create.
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Psychology Links, 1/19/2025

379 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Self-deception Social Behavior Ethics
  1. Many adults get stuck at a certain stage of moral development, which limits their understanding of complex societal issues. It's important to transition to a higher stage to deal with modern challenges.
  2. People often don't recognize their true motives and tend to present themselves in a better light. This self-deception can make us overly optimistic about ideas like socialism.
  3. Some people are naturally inclined to enforce social norms, which can lead to dangerous ideologies if not kept in check. It's essential to be aware of these tendencies in order to maintain a balanced society.

LLM Links, 2/1/2025

318 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Automation Machine Learning Digital Tools
  1. OpenAI's new AI agent, ChatGPT Operator, can take actions online for users, like booking services. However, some feel it doesn't yet handle more complex tasks very well.
  2. Different users highlight various ways they use AI, showing that it can be useful for specific inquiries, but many still feel they are stuck in old routines.
  3. AI technology is advancing fast, leading to concerns about job loss and social changes. People think the impacts of AI will evolve slowly, despite rapid progress in the tech itself.

The Decade of Greed

470 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💼 Business Corporate Finance Investing Economic History Management Stock Market
  1. The 1980s was known as the 'decade of greed' where corporate competition and higher stock prices became the focus. Companies were often run for personal perks rather than to boost shareholder value.
  2. The leveraged buyout of RJR Nabisco showcased how investment strategies changed, with firms paying high prices for companies, anticipating future profits. This often led to restructuring that wasn't always kind to employees.
  3. Despite concerns about overpaying for stocks and creating economic instability, overall wealth has increased in America since the 1980s. What seemed excessive at the time might now look like a small correction in the grand scheme.

Psychology links

425 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
  1. Many psychology studies face issues like failing to replicate results and not asking important questions. This makes it hard to trust some findings in social science.
  2. Some research suggests that women's attraction to violent men may be linked to survival instincts from our ancestors. It's a complicated issue that we still don't fully understand.
  3. In social dynamics, females often form groups focused on togetherness, while males tend to organize into teams aimed at achieving specific goals. This difference affects how each interacts and collaborates.

Syria after Assad

577 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict Diplomacy Sovereignty Geopolitics Middle East
  1. Syria isn't ready for democracy yet. The country lacks the necessary conditions and institutions to support a democratic system.
  2. After Assad's fall, the rebel groups may struggle to unite due to their different ethnic and political backgrounds. Their divisions could lead to conflict among themselves.
  3. Syria has significant strategic importance to neighboring countries like Turkey, Iran, and Israel. These powers may influence Syria's future to protect their own interests.

High-school debate: Pro

486 implied HN points • 22 Dec 24
🚌 Education Debate Public Speaking Communication Skills Critical Thinking
  1. High school debate encourages students to think critically and understand both sides of an argument. This helps them learn how to engage in respectful discussions.
  2. Judging a debate focuses on the quality of arguments and how well teams respond to each other's points. This process is designed to improve speaking skills and critical thinking.
  3. AI could potentially be used to judge debates fairly by evaluating arguments based on set criteria. It seems feasible to train AI to understand the nuances of debate.

Social Learning Links, 1/28/2025

318 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Rhetoric Bureaucracy Activism Epistemology
  1. Barton Swaim discusses Cipolla's idea of classifying people into four categories: helpless, bandit, intelligent, and stupid. He argues that even well-credentialed elites can act stupidly, benefiting themselves while causing harm to others.
  2. Lorenzo Warby warns against the dangers of activism, suggesting that it attracts manipulative personalities who use power without accountability. This can lead to aggressive behavior and undermine responsible governance.
  3. Dan Williams highlights a debate about whether ordinary citizens can understand today's complex world and argues for giving more decision-making power to experts. This raises questions about the nature of democracy and who truly understands political issues.

LLM Links, 1/27/2025

318 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Education Bioengineering Data science Innovation
  1. AI is improving quickly, making it easier for students to answer essay questions by providing high-quality responses from various texts. This change may reduce the value of traditional essay exams.
  2. A World Bank project in Nigeria successfully used AI in education, enhancing learning equivalent to nearly two years in just six weeks. This shows promise for AI to help education in underdeveloped areas.
  3. OpenAI is developing AI models to transform science, including engineering proteins that enhance cellular functions. This could lead to significant advancements in fields like bioengineering.

Economics Links, 2/15/2025

243 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade Health Policy Substack International
  1. The European Union may have created a big, slow government that doesn't serve its people well. Some believe smaller countries manage their affairs better.
  2. Importing goods doesn't always harm jobs; a trade deficit can actually mean a strong economy. More spending and demand can lead to more jobs, not fewer.
  3. Becoming successful on platforms like Substack is tough. It often takes a large existing following or writing about popular subjects to grow your audience.

Fertility Links, 2/6/2025

273 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Society Family Tradition Demography Values
  1. Women tend to prefer taller men, which has influenced men's height and weight growth over time.
  2. Pro-natal arguments focus on why society should encourage having children, with the belief that being a grandparent can bring joy and reduce loneliness in old age.
  3. Religious rituals historically supported family and community bonding, so new secular celebrations could help promote marriage and childbirth today.

Links to Consider, 11/27/2024

592 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education & Policy Health care Civil Rights Political theory Social Issues
  1. Education systems were designed mainly to instill obedience and maintain social order, rather than to promote skills.
  2. Some cancer screening guidelines avoid discussing life expectancy, potentially putting patients at risk due to a lack of difficult conversations about their health.
  3. David Brooks argues that elite college admissions based on cognitive ability have created a new class society, but fails to recognize the moral arrogance and biases in the current system.

Business and Economics links, 1/12

364 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Finance Investment Market Analysis
  1. Co-founder relationships are really important for startup success. If co-founders don't get along, it can lead to the startup failing.
  2. Economic analysis often relies on metaphors, which can lead to different interpretations. It's normal for people to disagree about economic ideas.
  3. The debate over resource prices shows that neither side always wins. Long-term data suggests that market dynamics can be complex and unpredictable.

The Enemy is Us on Health Policy

440 implied HN points • 25 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Health care Policy Analysis Public Health Consumer behavior Health economics
  1. Many Americans see health care as a gift, not a product, which makes it hard to talk about costs. Doctors want to be paid, but they don't want to think of themselves as selling their services.
  2. There are certain cultural attitudes that shape the way our health care system works today. These attitudes include the reluctance to view health care as a commodity.
  3. People often ignore other ways resources can be used when it comes to health care. This can create issues in how we manage and think about health care policies.

How the national debt will play out

774 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt crisis Government spending Political Conflict Fiscal policy Social Security
  1. Ignoring the national debt can lead to a sudden financial crisis. When people lose confidence, the government might face high interest rates quickly.
  2. Government spending is heavily tied to mandatory benefits like Social Security and Medicare, meaning cuts alone might not solve the debt issue. A lot of tax revenue will go just to paying interest on the debt.
  3. If a crisis happens, it could create intense political conflict over cuts to benefits, increased taxes, and how to handle debt. A balanced budget amendment could help avoid this but may be too late now.

Economics Links

455 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Regulation Labor Market Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. Academic economics has a culture that can feel snobby. Many economists avoid challenging well-known figures out of fear of seeming unimportant.
  2. The job market has changed a lot over the years, moving from agriculture to manufacturing, and now to service-based jobs. This shift reflects changes in demand and productivity.
  3. Cutting regulations can significantly lower prices, leading to increased real income for people. This could result in economic growth that exceeds what many economists expect.

My Two Summers in a Factory

622 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🎭️ Culture Work Life Social Class Manufacturing Personal narrative
  1. Working in a factory exposes you to hard, repetitive tasks that can be boring and sometimes unsafe. Many people today don't have this experience, leading to a disconnect between blue-collar work and white-collar jobs.
  2. The author highlights how different backgrounds can affect perceptions in a factory setting, showing that coworkers accepted him despite his different upbringing.
  3. Political talk about the glory of manufacturing jobs often misses the reality of those jobs, which can be unpleasant and unhealthy. It's important to recognize both the challenges and the necessity of these jobs.

The Oversized Conglomerate

653 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Public Policy Political theory Management Regulation
  1. A government that does a few things well is better than one that tries to do many things poorly. When the government gets involved in too many areas, it often struggles to manage them effectively.
  2. The federal government acts like a big, clumsy business conglomerate. It has overlapping agencies and goals that conflict, making it hard to oversee and improve its work.
  3. When considering government interventions, we should expect them to be less effective than planned. This means we should rethink how much we ask the government to do and focus on making sure it does a few things really well.

Fischer Black vs. Monetarism

455 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic Theory Inflation Market Dynamics Financial Systems
  1. Fischer Black believed that both money supply and price levels are based on collective beliefs rather than strict numbers. People accept money because they trust others will accept it too.
  2. Inflation and prices are influenced more by market behavior and expectations rather than solely by money supply. This means prices can change based on what people think will happen in the future.
  3. The relationship between money and prices might be less reliable than before. As people use less cash and more digital forms of payment, traditional ways to predict inflation might not work well anymore.

Should you sell your words to AI?

516 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Digital Rights Content creation Intellectual Property
  1. Selling your words to AI can be seen as a smart idea, especially if it helps share your insights with more people. It could lead to interesting discussions and a chance to educate others.
  2. Some believe that using AI this way could harm the trust between a writer and their readers. They think that real human connection is essential in writing and shouldn't be replaced by machines.
  3. Personal legacy matters a lot. For some, like older writers, having an AI that reflects their thoughts can be a way to continue sharing their ideas even after they're gone.

The Real Mission of the Fed

607 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Central Banking Government debt Monetary Policy Financial Crises Quantitative Easing
  1. The main job of the Federal Reserve is to help the government borrow money easily and cheaply. This allows the government to spend on various programs, including wars and welfare.
  2. Despite originating to stabilize the banking system, the Fed has faced criticism for not preventing financial crises. Even after its creation, the U.S. has experienced repeated financial problems.
  3. Quantitative Easing, a method the Fed uses to handle money and loans, may need to end. This would help limit government debt and potentially benefit everyday Americans in the long run.

Social Learning Links

440 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🚌 Education College Licensing Politics Online safety Social norms
  1. Many jobs today require expensive degrees that people might not even need. Instead, some suggest that students could go directly into work after high school and earn a good living.
  2. When people argue about politics, they often aren't trying to change each other's minds. Instead, they want to maintain their group loyalty and protect their beliefs.
  3. There are differing views on the Kids Online Safety Act. Some believe it will help protect kids online, while others think it could be ineffective and distracting for schools.

Economics Links, 2/10/2025

227 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Trade AI Entrepreneurship Policy
  1. Phil Gramm and Larry Summers believe that tariffs harm economic growth and could lead to trade wars. They recommend against implementing broad tariffs.
  2. Aswath Damodaran discusses how the entry of DeepSeek could change the AI landscape, creating both low-cost alternatives and maintaining a premium market for AI.
  3. Magatte Wade argues that Africa's poverty is largely due to over-regulation and difficult business conditions, making it hard to trade and grow economically.

Do Tariffs Reduce Trade Deficits?

288 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance International Trade Macroeconomics Tariffs Economic Policy
  1. Understanding international economics is complicated and involves many factors. It's not just simple numbers, but a mix of many different elements.
  2. A country's trade surplus is linked to its ability to save more than it invests. Countries that save well will usually end up holding other countries' debt like U.S. Treasury bills.
  3. Imposing tariffs might not significantly reduce trade deficits. Instead, currency appreciation can offset any potential benefits from tariffs, so real change depends more on national savings rates.

Social Learning Links, 12/7/2024

470 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Education Social Issues Philosophy Politics Human behavior
  1. We often form our beliefs based on who we trust rather than just the facts. It's easy to fall into thinking everyone else is wrong if they disagree with us.
  2. People have a bias where they see good things happening to their group as a result of their strengths, while bad things are blamed on outside factors. This leads to unfair judgments about others.
  3. Understanding and acknowledging our own mistakes is tough but important. It helps us to think clearly and make better decisions, even when it feels uncomfortable.

How Much Dissent is Optimal?

744 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Dissent Censorship Social media
  1. Dissent is important because it helps to challenge wrong opinions and beliefs. If everyone only agrees with the mainstream view, mistakes can go uncorrected.
  2. Censorship can lower morale and create a negative work or social environment. People should feel free to express concerns without fear of punishment.
  3. Policing dissent is risky because those in power might misuse it to silence voices that challenge their ideas. It's better to allow open discussion, even if some views are unpopular.

Economics Links

394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumption Inflation Government Policy Economic Theory
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

Inauguration Links

288 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy Elections Political Opinion Education
  1. Betsy DeVos suggests that getting things done in Washington takes a lot of time because many people are stuck in their ways. She believes it's important to focus on those who are open to new ideas.
  2. John Cochrane offers economic advice, saying a flat tax could work better than the current system, and that direct payments might be a smarter way to redistribute wealth. He admits he's leaning towards a libertarian view on taxes.
  3. Marc Andreessen praises Donald Trump's understanding of business and issues like energy management, suggesting that his experience can help tackle difficult problems effectively.

LLM Links, 2/12/2025 and Live Event Friday

212 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Models Innovation Business Careers
  1. Reasoning-trained AI models are expected to outperform existing models in tasks like coding and math while still being costlier to run.
  2. DeepSeek is making waves in AI for its engineering efficiency and lower training costs, potentially leading to many companies creating competitive models.
  3. AI might replace numerous jobs, with tax preparers topping the list, highlighting the shift towards automated processes in many fields.

Statistical Methods Links

303 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Mental health Public Health Substance Use Social media
  1. The more time teens spend on social media, the more likely they are to face mental health issues. This shows a clear relationship between social media use and negative effects on mental well-being.
  2. Historical evidence suggests that violence can lead to increased social advantages, but it doesn't prove that violence is beneficial overall. There could be alternative outcomes for peaceful behavior that aren't considered.
  3. Combining multiple studies doesn't automatically correct biases in research. If all the studies have flaws, their average result will likely still be flawed.

Links to Consider, 11/16/2024

516 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Media Consumption Activism Religion Gambling
  1. Higher education has shifted to favor activism over scholarship, which affects true learning. Students should adopt a curious mindset to promote a better educational environment.
  2. Christianity has influenced social changes for centuries, but now its traditional role seems to be diminishing as society embraces these values without the Church.
  3. Political parties are evolving based on media usage, which may blur their ideological lines. Democrats focus on controlling legacy media, whereas Republicans thrive in digital spaces, leading to possible changes in party identities.

Trust and Accountability

394 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Sociology Trust Accountability Cooperation Society
  1. Cooperation in society happens when people can gain rewards for working together, and when there are consequences for dishonesty. It's not about being inherently good or bad.
  2. High-trust societies don't just happen; they depend on rules and systems that encourage honesty and discourage cheating.
  3. Understanding human cooperation is complicated, especially as social groups grow bigger. It's a key part of how societies function.

Links to Consider, 12/3/2024

440 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education Mental health Criminal Justice Cultural critique
  1. Shaming and judging behavior is part of all cultures, but today's society often ignores harmful actions while focusing on different issues.
  2. To improve K-12 education, it's suggested to hire teachers based on their expertise in specific subjects rather than their credentials alone.
  3. Radical ideologies can be harmful because they often distract from real issues and the mental health struggles of those who promote them.

World Policing or World Perfecting?

637 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Global Governance International relations Regional conflicts
  1. Policing the world can be necessary sometimes, like ensuring safe navigation and commerce. However, trying to forcefully change other countries' systems usually leads to problems.
  2. Past U.S. actions in the Middle East often focused too much on perfection, like trying to build democracies instead of just maintaining order. This overreaching has had high costs without much benefit.
  3. America should find a balance between policing and staying less involved globally. While policing might not be ideal, it's often better than allowing worse alternatives like unchecked aggression from other nations.

We Argue in Metaphors

622 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Discourse Media influence Public Opinion
  1. We often use metaphors in our discussions, which can make our points unclear. It's important to recognize that metaphors can be helpful but aren't always perfectly accurate.
  2. When we disagree, it can help to focus on the implications of the metaphors we're using. If we can agree on what those implications are, we might find common ground.
  3. Differences in opinion often come from how we interpret metaphors. It's okay to have different views, but we should try to understand why the other person believes what they do.

Fertility Links, including a conversation with Lyman Stone

258 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Society Family Gender Marriage Fertility
  1. Fertility rates are dropping globally, mostly because fewer people are forming couples, which includes both married and unmarried partnerships.
  2. Smartphones and technology are isolating people by providing entertainment at home, which makes it harder for them to build social skills and form connections.
  3. Creating communities that encourage interactions and closeness can help strengthen relationships and possibly improve marriage rates.