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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

DRAFT NOTES on "Grab 'Em by the Pussy" for January 20, 2025

246 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cultural Commentary Social Dynamics Gender Issues Media influence
  1. Right-wing young men should realize that bravado and aggression won't help them succeed. Instead, they need emotional intelligence and collaboration skills.
  2. Emulating wealthy individuals who use rude language can lead to serious consequences. It’s essential for young men to understand that being viewed negatively can limit their future connections.
  3. Focusing solely on making money without considering social goals can create shallow relationships. Real success involves more than just financial gain; it's about building genuine connections.

READING: Harriett Martineau Observes the Court of President Andrew Jackson in Washington DC in the Early 1830s

238 implied HN points • 08 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics History Government Society Culture Political theory
  1. Harriet Martineau's observations give a unique view of early 19th-century America, focusing on the gap between ideals and reality in politics.
  2. She highlights the diversity and complexity of Washington, D.C. society while also noting the tensions surrounding power and privilege.
  3. Martineau's critical perspective reveals both admiration for American democracy and concerns about exclusions and contradictions within it.

CROSSPOST: 23 Economics Nobel Prize Winners for Kamala Harris

238 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Policy Political theory Campaigns
  1. Many Nobel Prize winners in economics believe Kamala Harris would be better for the economy than Donald Trump. They think her ideas will strengthen the middle class and promote fairness.
  2. Harris's economic agenda focuses on enhancing competition and creating job opportunities. These policies are seen as more beneficial for the country's overall economic health.
  3. In contrast, Trump's policies are viewed as harmful, leading to higher prices and greater inequality. Experts worry that his actions could jeopardize essential economic stability.

CROSSPOST: ARCHIVES: Franklin Delano Roosevelt at the 1936 New York State Democratic Convention

238 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Campaigns Political History Democratic Party Republican party Political Philosophy
  1. The Republican leaders are more focused on opposing actions than actually getting things done. They claim to support the same goals but resist the efforts to achieve them.
  2. History shows that during tough times, those in power must respond with real solutions. Neglecting issues can lead to greater unrest and challenges to government.
  3. Making promises without a clear plan can be dangerous. It’s important to face the reality of social issues instead of evading them, or we risk repeating past mistakes.

Who Were the ‘We the People’ Back in 1787?: Race, Law, & Original Constitutional Sin

238 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitution Race Law History Politics
  1. The concept of 'We the People' in the U.S. Constitution originally referred mainly to white citizens, with racial exclusion being a key part of that history.
  2. Some legal arguments today echo past ideas about racial citizenship, questioning who is included in the legal definitions set by the Constitution.
  3. There's ongoing debate about the historical voting rights of free Black men during the time of the Constitution's ratification, showing complexities in understanding who had a voice back then.
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Developing a New (Alan) Taylorism for the Remainder of the 21st Century

238 implied HN points • 31 May 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Political Economy Inflation Interest Rates Globalization
  1. We need to learn from past economic crises so we can prepare for future shocks. They often have long-lasting effects on our economy, making recovery much harder.
  2. Controlling inflation is key for political stability. When inflation is low and stable, people trust their leaders and feel secure about the economy.
  3. Even with challenges, like low interest rates, we have a great chance for investment in things like infrastructure and education. We should take advantage of these conditions to grow.

In Data Science for Non-STEM Majors, Is Learning-by-Watching Live Calculating Possible? Likely? Reasonable to Expect?

238 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🚌 Education Data science Pedagogy Economics Analysis Learning methods
  1. Students today need basic data science skills to succeed after graduation. It's like letting them leave school without knowing how to read or write.
  2. Teaching data science can be tricky because students have different backgrounds. Some find it confusing, while others think it's too basic.
  3. It's important to keep trying to teach data science. Finding the right way to do it is necessary for better education and understanding.

Are the Tech Titans Mighty Enough to Break the Threatened NVIDIA-OpenAI Fetters?

238 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Chips Market Strategy Innovation
  1. Big tech companies are trying to break their dependence on NVIDIA and OpenAI because they don't want to pay high fees for using their technology. They are investing heavily to develop their own systems and chips.
  2. The race for independence is fueled by fears of falling behind in AI technology. Companies need cutting-edge language and classification models to stay competitive and make profits.
  3. Despite the rush to innovate, there's concern about monopolies in chip manufacturing, particularly with companies like TSMC. If other competitors can catch up, it could lead to a more open tech landscape and fewer fees for businesses.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: American Idiots

222 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Governance Elections Public Policy Political Behavior
  1. There was a recent chaotic event in U.S. politics that hints at possible future issues under a second Trump administration. This involved key figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump arguing about a government funding bill.
  2. In the end, a deal was reached by some congressional leaders, but it showed how easily politicians can be swayed by people like Musk, even when they spread false information.
  3. Overall, the way politics is handled nowadays resembles a wrestling match more than a serious governing process, making it hard for voters to trust their leaders and their decisions.

READING/HOISTED: From 2021: Matt Levine Is Bewildered by the Financial Economics of Elon Musk

222 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. Elon Musk's influence on investments shows that value now often comes from social dynamics and celebrity power rather than traditional financial metrics. His tweets can drive prices up just because many people decide to buy into his hype.
  2. The rise of assets like GameStop and Dogecoin highlights a new way people coordinate their purchases online, often based on collective agreement rather than a solid analysis of the underlying value.
  3. Money and value are becoming less about concrete assets and more about social perceptions and internet culture. As social media evolves, how we view and use money is changing too.

Once More Telling People That They Should Take Nate Silver for Their Guru on Questions in His Lane

222 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Public Opinion Political Analysis Media influence
  1. Nate Silver is really good at understanding statistics and probabilities, so it's smart to listen to him when it comes to polls and predictions about elections.
  2. Billionaires don't know more about elections than anyone else; they often act based on their own interests and fears, not on secret insights.
  3. When looking at elections, focus on the polls instead of billionaires' actions. Polls can give us a clearer picture of what might happen, even if they're not perfect.

Understanding Inequality: Can Gini Coefficients Be Fruitfully Demystified? (Revised and Expanded)

222 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economics Policy Analysis Social Issues
  1. Gini Coefficients are complex measures of inequality that many people struggle to understand. It might be better to use simpler measures based on income percentiles, which are easier for people to relate to.
  2. When discussing income disparity, it's important to connect the data to real-life situations. Relating income differences to the average income helps individuals grasp the extent of inequality more easily.
  3. Income inequality affects people's experiences and social interactions. Understanding this can provide insights into how economic differences impact relationships and feelings of envy or spite among different economic classes.

Rakes, Rage, & the Rationality Racket: Jane Austen, High-T, & the Long Arc of Bad Decisions

222 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
📚 Literature Novels Analysis Classic Comedy Romance
  1. In literature, marriage isn't always about love. Sometimes it's about making practical choices for a better life, like choosing a stable partner over a passionate fling.
  2. Men often act irrationally due to their biology, especially when younger. As they age, they typically make better decisions and prioritize stability.
  3. Comedy can reveal truths about human behavior. Jokes about testosterone highlight how social expectations and biology can lead to poor choices, which have been recognized across history.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.3. Post-2010 "Polycrisis": Economics

215 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
  1. The word 'polycrisis' describes a situation where multiple crises are connected and worsening each other. Instead of solving one issue at a time, we're dealing with many issues together.
  2. Excessive financialization means that the economy focuses more on trading money for money rather than producing useful things. This can create risks and keeps people from understanding how the economy really works.
  3. Digitization has led to fewer good jobs that require less training, making it hard for people to find success. As these jobs disappear, many people feel disconnected and struggle to improve their lives.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.2. Neoliberalism & After

215 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Economic Policy Social justice
  1. The Neoliberal Order focused on free markets and individual freedom but often failed to create a fair society, leading to fear and inequality. This has caused people to look for new solutions and ideas.
  2. People are starting to care more about their local communities and how policies affect their immediate surroundings. There's a desire for changes that help create opportunities right where they are, instead of relying on moving to find better chances.
  3. There is a rising demand for leaders who truly represent and fight for the common people's interests. Many feel that the current system favors the rich, and they want someone to disrupt that status quo.

Friday Macro Sitch Watching: The Grit from the Sandstorm Is Fierce!

207 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Investment Economic Policy Market Trends Risk management
  1. In uncertain times, it's wise to be cautious and build safety instead of taking big risks. Waiting and watching can help us avoid bad decisions when the future is unclear.
  2. The economy is facing challenges like stagflation, which means slow growth and high prices. It's hard to tell if we're headed for a recession or if things will get better soon.
  3. Some people still have hope for a positive change, similar to past economic recoveries. They believe that chaos could lead to new growth opportunities, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: Misinformation Decided the U.S. Election

207 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Misinformation Political Behavior Public Opinion Governance
  1. Many Trump supporters are good-hearted people who genuinely worry about the country's direction. They voted for him not out of hate, but because they care.
  2. There is a serious problem when a large portion of the public prefers misinformation. It makes it hard for democracy to thrive if people choose not to believe the facts.
  3. Democrats may struggle to connect with those who need to hear their messages. Republicans are encouraged to take responsibility in educating their supporters about the truth.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES FROM 1998: Robber Barons

207 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Wealth Inequality Capitalism Political Influence Economic History Corruption
  1. Wealth in the economy often concentrates in the hands of a few people, often called billionaires. Their success can depend on timing, connections, and sometimes political favors.
  2. Historically, periods of high wealth concentration have not always led to faster economic growth. Curbs on wealth accumulation can actually coexist with healthy economic performance.
  3. The past presence of 'robber barons' and their role in building infrastructure shows that their success often involved corruption and manipulation, but they also contributed significantly to the nation's development.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.4. Post-2010 "Polycrisis": Culture, Communications, Politics, & War

207 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Economy Public Policy Cultural Studies War Studies
  1. We're facing a big change in how we organize our economies and societies after the old Neoliberal Order collapsed. Right now, there's no clear leader or system guiding us towards the future.
  2. Global warming is a major challenge we're dealing with, and it will likely change how we approach economics and society. It could cost us a lot and make it harder to adapt to new technologies.
  3. Misinformation is a huge problem in politics today. Many people believe false information, which can really impact elections and how we view our society.

"We Once Again Need to Raise More Capital than We Had Imagined": Watching OpenAI Say It Needs a New Structure

207 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Startups Investment Innovation Economy
  1. OpenAI is looking for more money than they expected, which highlights how important funding is for their progress towards AGI. This means they need to attract investors willing to take risks.
  2. They plan to change their structure to a Public Benefit Corporation, balancing profit with broader social goals. This structure aims to raise capital more effectively while still focusing on their mission.
  3. OpenAI's current success is compared to how Netscape was for the internet. This suggests that OpenAI is leading a new wave of technology and investment in artificial intelligence.

Yes. I Took a Vacation

207 implied HN points • 31 May 25
🎭️ Culture Travel Lifestyle Leisure Personal Growth Experiences
  1. Taking a vacation can be refreshing and necessary for mental well-being. It's important to step away from work sometimes and recharge.
  2. Returning from a vacation often brings a renewed sense of purpose and energy. Getting back to work can feel good after some time off.
  3. Sharing experiences from time away can be valuable for both the person returning and their audience. It offers insights and a chance to connect over shared interests.

LECTURE NOTES: 1.1. What the History of Economic Growth Is

199 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics History Lectures Learning University
  1. Economic growth has a long history, with most of it being slow until a major change around 1870. Before then, people lived with little advancement in their living standards for centuries.
  2. Reliable data about economies was mostly unavailable before the 19th century. This makes it hard to understand past living conditions or wealth distribution.
  3. Many technological advancements didn't lead to better lives for common people until recently. Before 1870, despite progress, most still struggled with poverty and poor living conditions.

American Economic History Midterm This Friday!

199 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🚌 Education Academic History Economics Lectures
  1. The midterm exam will focus on the readings, so doing them is key to doing well. It's designed to be easy if you're prepared.
  2. The course looks at American economic history through various significant episodes instead of a continuous timeline. This approach highlights important events and their impacts.
  3. Upcoming weeks will cover topics like immigration, feminism, and the rise of Silicon Valley. Each week connects historical discussions to current economic issues.

DRAFT: Prosperity & "Utopia": The Moving Target :: History of Economic Growth Lecture Notes 1.5

199 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
📖 Philosophy Economic Theory Political Philosophy Historical Analysis Cultural critique
  1. Utopias represent different ideas of a perfect society, like order, simplicity, pleasure, freedom, and collective purpose. However, real examples often don't match these ideals.
  2. Economic growth is important, but it doesn't guarantee happiness or satisfaction. It's complicated because people might just want more, rather than knowing what truly makes them happy.
  3. Historical models of societies like Sparta, Arcadia, and Rome show that chasing perfection can lead to problems. It's vital to think critically about what we truly want from life.

In the Country of the Tswana

199 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
🏝 Travel Adventure Wildlife Nature Cultural
  1. In 2007, earthquakes changed the landscape in Botswana, reopening the Savuti Channel and making it a year-round wetland again. This has impacted local wildlife and the ecosystem.
  2. The careful movements of predators, like lions and leopards, show their hunting strategies in the wild. They often use teamwork and stealth to catch their prey.
  3. Seeing wildlife interact in their natural habitat is a unique experience. It highlights the delicate balance between nature and the animals' survival instincts.

Thinking About Teaching Economic History to the First-Year Economic History Graduate Students This Forthcoming Semester

199 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🚌 Education Economic History Teaching Methods Historical Analysis Economic Theory
  1. Economic history helps us understand how preferences and market structures formed over time. Looking back can show us why things are the way they are today.
  2. It's important for economics students to learn about the historical context of economic principles. This context can enrich their understanding and practical applications in the real world.
  3. Questions about past economies can shed light on current issues, like inequality and technology progress. Exploring these questions can lead to valuable insights for today's economists.

The "MurderBot" Apple TV Adaptation Is a Win...

192 implied HN points • 31 May 25
🎭️ Culture Literature Television Media Adaptation Science fiction
  1. The 'MurderBot' adaptation on Apple TV is getting great reviews for capturing the essence of its original character. People are excited to see a relatable robot with real feelings and challenges.
  2. The cast, especially Alexander Skarsgård as the lead, is praised for their performances. They bring depth to the characters, making viewers feel connected to them right away.
  3. The show is noted for its humor and heart, appealing to both fans of the books and new viewers. It's a unique take on science fiction that mixes action with emotional storytelling.

Discounting the Future: Financial Markets, Memory, & the Mirage of ‘Normal’

192 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Interest Rates Central Banking Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. Financial markets are uncertain right now, with discount rates showing anxiety about growth and policy directions. It's a confusing time that could lead to either growth or recession.
  2. The Federal Reserve is divided on its future rates, indicating a cautious approach as they wait for more data. Mixed opinions exist about how to respond to inflation and economic conditions.
  3. The concept of a 'normal' economy has changed significantly since the 1990s. Today, interest rates and inflation are at levels that do not align with past expectations, leading to a new financial landscape.

Time to Revisit: How Does This Assessment Look Fourteen Months Later?

192 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There are two main views on inflation: 'Team Transitory' believes inflation will go away, while 'Team Persistent' thinks it will stick around. The debate is important to understand how to deal with the economy's ups and downs.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions, like raising interest rates quickly, play a big role in managing inflation. If the Fed hadn't acted as strongly, inflation expectations could have gone out of control.
  3. Past economic cycles were shaped by different factors, like wars and technological changes. Understanding these historical trends can help us navigate today's economy better.

Sundowning in America: A Series: Part IV

192 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Political Commentary Government Trump
  1. Donald Trump struggled to fill a large venue, showing a decrease in support for his campaign. This suggests that his appeal may not be as strong as it once was.
  2. His comments and jokes at a rally raised concerns about the negative impact of his words on communities, especially among minorities. This behavior can be damaging and indicates a trend towards divisive politics.
  3. The current Supreme Court is viewed as biased and potentially threatening to fair election processes. There are worries that their interventions might further undermine democratic practices in the upcoming elections.

READING: Martin Luther King, Jr. (1958): Out of the Long Night

192 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Civil Rights Social justice Race relations Historical context
  1. Nonviolent resistance is a powerful way to fight for justice. It focuses on love and understanding instead of anger and violence.
  2. The struggle for freedom and equality will keep going until everyone is free. People who face injustice have a strong desire to fight for their rights.
  3. It's important for everyone, especially churches, to stand against racism and inequality. Many people stay quiet, and that can be just as harmful.

Politics as Making Hardwood Furniture with Dull Tools: Mamdani's NYC Primary Win Is Not a Win, But Only an Uncertain High-Stakes Bet

192 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Coalitions Political strategy Campaigns Political theory
  1. The Democratic primary doesn't really matter; it's just practice before the real election. Understanding this can help build better teams and avoid mistakes.
  2. Winning a primary is not the same as winning the general election. It's important to think about if the chosen candidate can actually win and do good things if elected.
  3. Politics is about creating connections and rallying support. Success comes from believing in new possibilities and building a team that represents diverse backgrounds and needs.

TWELVE SLIDES: The History of Economic Growth :: (Roughly) Seven Summary Bullet Points per Lecture

192 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economic History Social Dynamics Technological Change Globalization
  1. Economic growth means people's living standards and productivity improve over time. It's not just about having more money, but also how everyone shares those resources fairly.
  2. Before 1870, most economic progress was slow, and many people lived in poverty. After that, societies began to develop better ways of organizing and sharing wealth, leading to real improvements for many.
  3. Today, we face challenges like climate change and inequality that threaten our progress. We need to find new ways to support everyone and ensure that future generations can thrive.

Why I Think Alexander Hamilton's Big Constitutional Convention Speech Is Worth Reading Today

192 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitution Democracy Governance Political theory Historical Analysis
  1. Hamilton's big speech at the Constitutional Convention is important because it shows his true thoughts on government and leadership. He believed in strong national leadership, even suggesting that Washington should be a monarch.
  2. Current political systems from the 1960s and even the founding era have not worked well, leading to frustration with both leftist and centrist politicians. There's a need for a better approach to ensure government truly reflects the people's needs.
  3. The discussion about democracy today often misses the point. It's not just about people expressing their views, but also about having representatives who really listen and act on those values.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Labor Market Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

NOTE TO SELF: "Coin Money, & Regulate the Value Thereof..."

176 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve Constitution Political Debate Supreme Court
  1. The Federal Reserve's role and its constitutionality are often misunderstood, especially by some Republicans. They argue that it shouldn't have the power to manage money since only Congress can do that.
  2. The creation of money has evolved, and while paper money existed, it was not the same as coins issued by the government. Now, Federal Reserve Notes are more like promises from banks rather than actual money made by Congress.
  3. There are concerns that the current Supreme Court may not interpret the Constitution properly regarding these financial matters, as it is seen as being influenced by political agendas rather than legal principles.

PROJECT SYNDICATE DRAFT: Chaos-Monkey Trade Policy

176 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Administration Economic Impact Government Policies
  1. The upcoming Trump II administration is expected to create harmful policies for the country. It's important to pay attention to how these policies are communicated and executed.
  2. There's a strong need for the press to scrutinize which of Trump's Twitter claims actually lead to real policy changes. This oversight is crucial to understanding the potential impact on American society.
  3. The chaotic nature of Trump's trade decisions, like fluctuating tariffs on imports, shows unpredictability in trade policy. This inconsistency can affect economic relationships with neighboring countries.

DRAFT: The Democratic Party Is too a Party Dedicated to Securing for the Workers by Hand & Brain the Full Fruits of Their Industry

176 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Economic Policies Labor Issues Social justice
  1. The Democratic Party is seen by some as not fully representing workers anymore. There's a belief that it has shifted focus to areas like digital change and globalization.
  2. Critics argue that Democrats support ideas like untrained immigration and globalization without enough caution. Others question what 'woke' ideas really upset the traditional worker base.
  3. There's a debate about who qualifies as a worker today. It's important to think about diversity in the worker identity beyond stereotypes of race and education.

Alexander Hamilton Did too Believe in "Industrial Policy"!!

176 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political History Government Industrial Policy Federalism
  1. Alexander Hamilton supported the idea of using government policies to help grow local industries. He believed that controlling foreign competition can actually help American goods become cheaper over time.
  2. Hamilton thought that while tariffs might raise prices temporarily, they could lead to long-term benefits for domestic manufacturers and even help farmers by making goods more affordable.
  3. Critics of Hamilton miss the point that he advocated for state involvement in the economy to promote national growth, which is a form of planned economic strategy.

ONE YEAR (& SIXTEEN YEARS) AGO ON GRASPING REALITY: The Panic of 1825

169 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Banking Economic Policy Financial Crisis Investment Monetary Systems
  1. The 1825 Panic marked a key moment in the development of modern central banking. It showed how banks can turn to a central authority for help during financial crises.
  2. The Bank of England stepped in during the 1825 financial turmoil to prevent a collapse of the banking system. This was a major shift, highlighting the importance of central banks in managing economic stability.
  3. The actions taken during the panic helped restore confidence in the financial system. When people began to trust that banks were safe again, the economy slowly recovered.