Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

There are Complex-Number One-Norm Square-Root of Probability Amplitudes of 0.006 in Which Sam Bankman-Fried Is Happy

676 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Probability Psychology Trading
  1. Amplitudes in quantum-mechanical superposition relate to philosophy-of-probability vs. psychology.
  2. Understanding the Kelly Criterion for betting based on win-loss odds and maximizing returns.
  3. Traders use the Kelly Criterion for survival, making positive-value bets, and psychological factors.

Yes. Rome Did Fall

568 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
💾 History Ancient Rome
  1. Rome fell to various barbarian tribes in the 5th century, leading to no Roman Empire in the west
  2. The Eastern Roman Empire in Constantinople survived and transformed into the Byzantine Empire
  3. Augustine's 'City of God' reflects the fall of Rome and the importance of Christianity
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Guns, Germs, Steel, Coal, Slavery, Seaborne Empires, Peninsulas, Mountain Ranges, Rainfall, & Chance: Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, & Steel" After Twenty-Five Years

522 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
🚌 Education History Literature Science Culture Philosophy
  1. Critics of Jared Diamond often lack basic discourse ethics, skip reading, or misinterpret his work.
  2. Diamond's book 'Guns, Germs, & Steel' excels in explaining historical advantages of Eurasian powers over others.
  3. The roots of Western-Eurasian exceptionalism might lie in cultural unity and political fragmentation, but there are gaps in Diamond's explanations.

"Civic Friendship": The Baseline Requirement for Democracy, & Incompatible with the Financial Flows Underpinning the Republican Ecology

484 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Partisan Politics Political History Republican party
  1. Democracies survive with civic friendship, treating each other as companions and helpers.
  2. Republicans have followed a path of arousing fear and scorn to win, breaking the civic bargain.
  3. Neoliberal policies following the Reagan Revolution failed, leading to societal and economic decline.

Having Neighbors Who Vote for Donald Trump Is Dangerous to Your Health

361 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Health Politics COVID-19 Vaccination Donald Trump Misinformation
  1. Having neighbors who vote for Donald Trump could lead to a higher chance of dying from the Covid Plague.
  2. The difference in Covid outcomes between counties may not be due to behavioral factors, but rather to vaccination rates influenced by political views.
  3. Vaccination rates seem to be linked to political figures like Donald Trump, showing how politics can impact public health.

Affirmative Action: A Primer, & A Finger Exercise

315 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Affirmative Action Meritocracy Inequality Social justice
  1. In a society with structural racism, even a good meritocratic system can unfairly advantage privileged groups and disadvantage marginalized ones.
  2. Meritocratic tests can also perpetuate structural racism, leading to unfair outcomes in job selection.
  3. Choosing the best people for a job involves considering and addressing structural racism in both access to resources and the testing process.

On Færie-Stories—like Frank Herbert's "Dune"—Derived from Agrarian-Age Roots

299 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
📚 Literature Analysis Themes Critique Storytelling Characters
  1. Dune by Frank Herbert is a complex and problematic story that delves into themes of tragedy, power, and morality.
  2. The connection between mastery-as-expertise and mastery-as-domination in stories like 'Dune' reflects historical perspectives rooted in Agrarian-Age dynamics of power and exploitation.
  3. While enjoying stories like 'Dune,' it's important to analyze and recognize the problematic aspects of the themes presented, such as the intertwining of expertise and dominance.

The True Shape of America's Debt & Deficit "Burdens"

261 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Government spending National Debt Political Economy
  1. Debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. has fluctuated over the years, with significant changes under different administrations.
  2. The U.S. could manage its debt by matching program spending to taxes in the future, allowing it to gradually diminish.
  3. The current U.S. deficit is a concern as it exceeds the optimal level, posing a risk for the future due to political and economic factors.

A Note: Some Persistent Structures of Antiliberal Thought

230 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Neofascism
  1. The idea of fascism did not die in 1945 but persisted and resurfaced as Trumpism.
  2. Frank Fukuyama's belief that fascism ended with the Red Army in Berlin was considered a big mistake.
  3. Isaiah Berlin's exploration in Saint Petersburg in the 1800s revealed structures of thought that we now see reflected in Trumpism.

Gunpowder-Empire Fiscal Legibility & State Development: Economic History/Political Economy Seminar

222 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💾 History Economic History Political Economy
  1. The Viceroyalty of New Spain in 1550 was dominated by a gunpowder-empire machine with Castilians and indigenous populations, showcasing early forms of state development.
  2. The introduction of the Patio Process in 1554 for silver extraction revolutionized mining districts in Mexico, attracting workers and increasing prosperity due to the flow of mercury.
  3. Improved fiscal legibility in mining districts post-Patio Process led to accelerated political centralization, as viceroys had more confidence in transitioning areas from encomienda to corregimiento for better state control and revenue collection.

People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent

215 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Media Polling Partisanship Data Analysis
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.

American Nationalism, Teddy-Roosevelt Style!

215 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Nationalism Progressivism Wealth Inequality
  1. Teddy Roosevelt aimed to emphasize the importance of American heritage and the impact of the Pilgrims and Puritans on the nation.
  2. He advocated for building on the positive qualities of the past while recognizing the advancements made since then.
  3. Roosevelt promoted fighting against plutocracy and enforcing fair treatment in wealth accumulation, favoring a balance of individual initiative and collective responsibility.

We Need to Do Better than Hum 1 & Soc Sci 2 in General Education

215 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🚌 Education Humanities Higher education Critical Thinking
  1. The purpose of humanities in education should be more than teaching a limited view of Western literature and thought.
  2. It is valuable to provide students with a broad liberal education that includes exposure to different perspectives, even critical ones.
  3. American universities should focus on teaching true facts and how to think critically rather than implanting specific values.

Fear of a Black Pope!

207 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Models Ethics Chatbots Machine Learning
  1. People have high expectations of AI models like GPT, but they are not flawless and have limitations.
  2. The panic over an AI model's depiction of a Black Pope reveals societal biases regarding race and gender.
  3. AI chatbots like Gemini are viewed in different ways by users and enthusiasts, leading to conflicting expectations of their capabilities.

READING: Alan Ryan on Isaiah Berlin on Karl Marx

207 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
📚 Literature Philosophy
  1. Isaiah Berlin's take on Karl Marx focused not just on Marx's life but also on his intellectual environment and impact on history.
  2. Berlin's writing style brought historical figures like Marx to life, balancing psychology and intellectual analysis skillfully.
  3. Marxism, as presented by Berlin, challenges the idea that ideas solely drive history, highlighting the complex relationship between individuals, their environment, and social change.

Do Not Spend too Much Time "Getting Good" at Dealing with Current AML GPT LLMs

169 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Data science Internet Software
  1. It's uncertain how current AML GPT LLMs will be most useful in the future, so spending too much time trying to master them may not be the best approach.
  2. Proper prompting is crucial when working with AML GPT LLMs as they can be capable of more than initially apparent. Good prompts can make tasks that seem impossible into achievable ones.
  3. Understanding the thought processes and effective way to prompt AML GPT LLMs is essential, as their responses can vary based on subtle changes or inadequate prompting.

DRAFT: Notes: What Is the Techno-Optimist Slant on “AI”?

169 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Machine Learning Data Analysis Tech industry Digital Transformation
  1. Very large-scale, high-dimension regression and classification analysis will be game-changing, transforming bureaucracy to algorithms with significant impacts across sectors from finance to healthcare.
  2. Natural-language interfaces to databases may be challenging to control but offer more intuitive access to vast information repositories, potentially enhancing user efficiency.
  3. Autocomplete technology provides substantial time savings for white-collar workers, illustrating the significant productivity boost modern technologies can offer.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.

Understanding Why so Many, Many False Starts in Sub-Saharan Africa...

153 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Africa Government Leadership Reform Development
  1. Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges in creating successful governance systems that align with the population's needs and aspirations.
  2. Building functional and enduring states in sub-Saharan Africa may require reimagining the government structure from the ground up through inclusive conversations within communities.
  3. The ideal government model could be one that focuses on efficient administration and coordinates production processes, as seen in countries like Denmark and Singapore.

On Michael Mann's "On Wars"

153 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🚌 Education Review Analysis War Peace Human behavior
  1. Wars are negative-sum activities where mistakes are made by one or both parties involved.
  2. The book 'On Wars' by Michael Mann explores the history and nature of war, aiming to understand the underlying causes of conflicts and achieve peace.
  3. Chris Blattman's 'Why We Fight' provides a useful sociology of war by identifying key types of mistakes that lead to wars, offering insights to guide toward peace.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: A Woman Called "Toad"

153 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture History Philosophy Literature Art & Illustration
  1. The classification and cultural appropriation of historical figures can be misleading and can lead to misconceptions about their identities.
  2. We must be cautious about labeling ancient civilizations as 'white guys' because it overlooks their true identities, leading to missed opportunities for learning and growth.
  3. It's important to recognize the alien nature of classical Greeks and Romans and not project modern ideologies onto them, acknowledging the differences to gain a deeper understanding.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-01 Fr

146 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
🚌 Education Economics Global Warming History Neofascism
  1. Warren Buffett expanded his investment philosophy following advice from Munger, which led to adding wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices
  2. Stock pundits have faced criticism for underperformance and being influenced by popular views, impacting small and mid-capitalisation stocks
  3. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's financial stability in the face of climate change contrasts with utilities like PG&E and Hawaiian Electric facing bankruptcy

BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo

146 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics Journamalism Spatial Computing Industrial Policy Interest Rates
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.