Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways
1353 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Jan 25
  1. Recent inflation rates are slightly above the targets set by the Federal Reserve, but not alarmingly high. This suggests that there isn't an urgent need for drastic policy changes right now.
  2. There is skepticism about Trump's understanding of monetary policy and how he believes oil prices affect overall inflation. Many experts think he is outdated in his thinking.
  3. Trump's comments on inflation and interest rates may not seriously influence economic policy due to his advisor's stance on maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence.
1137 implied HN points โ€ข 06 Feb 25
  1. Broad-based tariffs are generally not a good idea because they can harm the economy. Instead of helping, they often lead to higher prices and lower productivity.
  2. Historically, tariffs have not stopped the decline of manufacturing jobs in the U.S., which is mainly due to increased productivity and changes in demand. The economy is doing well even with trade deficits.
  3. Foreign investment is important for the U.S. economy, and tariffs can actually hurt growth. Successful economies attract foreign capital, which has helped the U.S. prosper throughout its history.
884 implied HN points โ€ข 09 Feb 25
  1. Trump's actions often focus on getting attention rather than creating real change. Many of his plans are more about performance than effective policy.
  2. The media needs to separate Trump's true policies from his showmanship, but many outlets are caught up in the drama instead.
  3. Trump's potential policies could harm the economy, and it's crucial for clear information to be shared so the public can understand the impact.
607 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Jan 25
  1. About 90% of Canadians live close to the US border, which influences their economy and lifestyle. Most of Canada's population is concentrated in big cities like Toronto and Montreal.
  2. Canada's population density is quite low, with only 4 people per square kilometer outside urban areas. This means there are many large, empty spaces in the country.
  3. Canadians have a relatively high life expectancy and are mostly bilingual in English and French. About a quarter of the population are visible minorities, showcasing diversity.
599 implied HN points โ€ข 03 Jun 25
  1. The modern Republican Party seems to ignore reality and cling to nostalgic ideas instead of addressing current issues. It's like they're in a fantasy world, focusing more on applause than on real economic policies.
  2. There's a growing sense among party members that they can blame Democrats for economic problems, despite their own history of increasing the deficit. It's like they're playing a blame game instead of taking responsibility.
  3. The leaders in the Republican Party appear more interested in tax cuts and deregulation rather than forming effective policies. They rally the crowd with grand tales but tend to avoid tough discussions about the economy.
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584 implied HN points โ€ข 27 Oct 24
  1. The Washington Post decided not to endorse a candidate for the 2024 presidential election, saying they want to return to their historical roots of neutrality.
  2. The humor columnist publicly endorsed Kamala Harris because she believes it's important to care about the future and the kind of world her child will be born into.
  3. She argues that democracy is fragile and must be actively supported, and that it's crucial to speak out against candidates who threaten it, like Donald Trump.
492 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Jun 25
  1. Elon Musk's wealth, largely tied to Tesla, is facing challenges as the companyโ€™s profit growth may not continue. The recent surge in Tesla's sales was helped by market conditions and celebrity status, but that charm seems to be fading.
  2. Many billionaires, especially those in tech, have consistent income from their businesses. In contrast, Musk's financial future looks uncertain as competition in the electric vehicle market increases and his brand image shifts.
  3. The reasons people used to buy Teslas included its innovation and eco-friendliness. Now, with Musk's controversial actions, many of those who once supported the brand are distancing themselves, which could hurt Tesla's future sales.
422 implied HN points โ€ข 06 Feb 25
  1. Brexit caused a lot of chaos and hurt the UK economy significantly, with estimates of GDP loss ranging from 4% to over 10%. This shows how disruptive trade politics can really be.
  2. Trump's international trade policies seem to create similar pointless disruptions, slightly lessening the U.S. economy's ties with its trading partners but not helping in the long run.
  3. There are questions about how the damage from Trump's trade policies compares to Brexit's impact, and it's important to analyze the economic integration and results for both the U.S. and UK.
415 implied HN points โ€ข 15 Nov 24
  1. Teaching students about human affairs is essential to prepare them for their future. We need to help them understand how to navigate their lives and the society they'll be part of.
  2. History provides valuable lessons and analogies, but it's important to synthesize these into useful theories. Good theories help us learn from the past and think about the future.
  3. It's necessary to adapt our teaching to current and future realities, rather than relying only on past approaches. Students need knowledge that applies to the world of 2055, not just what was relevant 40 years ago.
415 implied HN points โ€ข 29 Dec 24
  1. There is a division within right-wing politics, with one group focused on technology and immigration, while the other emphasizes hiring Americans. This conflict reveals deep disagreements on priorities and treatment of certain demographics.
  2. Journalistic narratives often misrepresent political situations, making them seem more normal than they are. This 'sanewashing' can hide essential truths from readers.
  3. Donald Trump's upcoming presidency suggests continued chaos, with various factions vying for power and unclear policy directions. The interactions and conflicts in online discussions illustrate a tangled political landscape.
399 implied HN points โ€ข 03 Jun 25
  1. News headlines often exaggerate to grab attention, but Bloomberg seems to be toning things down lately. This raises questions about their reporting approach.
  2. Statements from officials about upcoming talks can often be just optimistic hopes rather than facts. There hasnโ€™t been any independent confirmation that a call between Trump and Xi is actually happening.
  3. When headline writers are more cautious than reporters, it suggests something might be off within the news organization. Itโ€™s important for news to prioritize informing readers accurately.
376 implied HN points โ€ข 23 Nov 24
  1. Britain's economy has struggled since 2008, missing out on a lot of potential growth. If things had gone differently, people would be much better off today.
  2. Policies like austerity and Brexit have hurt the economy, but they are not the only reasons for the decline. There have been many mistakes made over the years.
  3. The long-term effects of economic shocks, like the Great Recession, can have lasting impacts on growth. This shows how important it is to be careful with economic policies.
361 implied HN points โ€ข 14 Jun 25
  1. Elon Musk initially found success by overpromising but often delivered exceptional results with his companies, like Tesla and SpaceX. However, this ability may have been overshadowed by his association with Donald Trump.
  2. Musk's close relationship with Trump, while beneficial in certain cultural aspects, poses significant risks to his businesses and financial interests. Trump's policies could threaten the viability of Musk's ventures.
  3. Musk underestimated the power dynamics at play and did not secure enough protections for his interests. His strategy to deal with Trump seems ineffective, leading to a retreat from previous positions.
345 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Jan 25
  1. Donald Trump's comments show he has a unique view on how water resources work, particularly regarding water flowing from Canada to California. Many people around him seem to lack the willingness to correct his misunderstandings.
  2. He claimed that turning a 'faucet' could solve California's water issues and that this would cause the state to thrive, ignoring the complexities of water management and environmental concerns.
  3. Trump's statements indicate he believes he could improve the agricultural situation in California significantly, but his ideas seem unrealistic and overlook important facts about irrigation and ecology.
338 implied HN points โ€ข 16 Feb 25
  1. Voters are unhappy about the economy, but it's mainly because they are influenced by misinformation from certain media sources. The reality of the economy isn't as bad as many believe.
  2. The official statistics show a certain level of unemployment and underemployment, but this has always been a part of the economic landscape. People misunderstand these numbers and feel worse than the data suggests.
  3. Many believe the economy is struggling due to flawed statistics, but this misunderstanding has been constant. The data doesn't paint a complete picture of people's real experiences in the job market.
338 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Jun 25
  1. The current leadership struggles with issues of competence and decision-making at the highest levels of government. This creates a chaotic environment where important decisions may not get the thoughtful consideration they need.
  2. There's a concern that the political system is not functioning well, particularly in managing presidential incapacity. Mechanisms like the 25th Amendment and impeachment seem ignored, even when they might be necessary.
  3. The lack of experienced, serious leaders in the political landscape is troubling. Without capable individuals to step in, the risks of poor governance increase, potentially leading to significant consequences for the country.
330 implied HN points โ€ข 10 Jun 25
  1. Economic analysis can sometimes feel like a performance rather than a serious discussion. People in media might act like they believe things that aren't true.
  2. Immigration can boost a country's economy, but some policies can slow down growth. If certain negative policies continue, economic growth could be very low.
  3. Even when people know the truth about economic issues, they still might not say it. This creates a situation where misleading information can seem credible.
322 implied HN points โ€ข 31 May 25
  1. Education needs to focus on what students should remember and be able to do, rather than just what they can get from AI like chatbots.
  2. Instead of banning AI, we should find ways to use it in learning, just like we adapted to calculators in math classes.
  3. Understanding the basics behind complex tools like AI is important, as all tools have limitations and can miss important details.
322 implied HN points โ€ข 09 Jun 25
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.
307 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Feb 25
  1. Alan Furst's novel 'Dark Star' is praised as one of the best books about Europe in the 1930s. It captures the tense atmosphere of that time better than many historical accounts.
  2. The story revolves around a character named Andre Szara, who navigates the dangers of living under oppressive regimes while trying to survive and help others.
  3. The novel highlights the moral ambiguities of the era, where allies and enemies were often blurred, making readers think about the complexities of political choices.
299 implied HN points โ€ข 02 Nov 24
  1. The election is portrayed as a clear choice between decency and a lack of it. It's important to consider character when voting.
  2. Joe Biden emphasizes that Donald Trump has made false claims and spread misinformation, which is harmful to those in need.
  3. Biden also stresses the importance of holding leaders accountable for their actions and statements, especially in times of crisis.
299 implied HN points โ€ข 21 Jun 25
  1. Slavery changed over time, especially after 1500, when it became more about race and capitalism. Before that, people could become slaves due to war or debt, but that changed.
  2. Wealthy societies benefited from slavery, with the middle class enjoying cheap goods thanks to the suffering of enslaved people. This created a system where profit came at a high human cost.
  3. The idea of race was used to justify slavery, making it seem like it was natural for certain groups to be enslaved. The American Civil War, while costly, was part of the struggle to end this brutal system.
292 implied HN points โ€ข 08 Feb 25
  1. Jo Walton's 'Small Change' trilogy is a really engaging read that reflects current societal issues. It explores themes of resistance against rising fascism.
  2. The books show how characters deal with fear and the threat of losing their freedom. They navigate personal struggles in a world turning towards tyranny.
  3. By blending genres like mystery and historical fiction, Walton creates a unique narrative that challenges readers to think about their own freedoms and choices.
292 implied HN points โ€ข 21 Jun 25
  1. Congress is considering allowing companies to create their own currencies through stablecoins, which could lead to financial chaos like what happened in the past.
  2. There are concerns that regulators may struggle to manage the many stablecoins that could flood the market, posing a risk to the economy.
  3. Instead of issuing more currencies, a better approach might be to adopt practices from the European Union to focus on reducing fees and helping consumers without overloading regulators.
284 implied HN points โ€ข 09 Nov 24
  1. The newsletter aims to make readers smarter and more informed about economic topics. It's designed to keep readers engaged and entertained while learning.
  2. Readers can expect economic insights, historical context, and thoughtful recommendations in the newsletter. The goal is to offer clarity and understanding of complex issues.
  3. The newsletter also seeks to enhance public discourse by steering readers away from sensationalism and clickbait, promoting a more thoughtful examination of current events.
276 implied HN points โ€ข 05 Jun 25
  1. Elon Musk may face financial troubles in the future due to his unexpected fallout with Trump. He thought business deals could be made based on loyalty, but that's not how Trump operates.
  2. Musk is trying to show Trump that he has power, which may help him secure subsidies and support for his businesses, Tesla and SpaceX. It's uncertain how effective this strategy will be.
  3. Thereโ€™s a lot of unpredictability in the political and business landscape, especially with figures like Musk and Trump leading the charge. It's like watching a high-stakes game unfold.
276 implied HN points โ€ข 23 Jan 25
  1. Countries are starting to use their market power for political reasons, which can hurt globalization. This means that economic decisions are becoming more political.
  2. The level of globalization has been changing a lot, and even though it dipped during the pandemic, it has started to recover. Still, many people are concerned about the risks of deglobalization.
  3. Reducing global connections might lead to higher prices and less innovation. The goal now seems to be working with other countries while being careful about becoming too dependent.
269 implied HN points โ€ข 18 Jun 25
  1. Tariffs can harm regular American families by increasing prices and creating uncertainty. They may seem like a good idea to support local industries, but they often backfire.
  2. The U.S. is becoming more isolated in global trade because of unpredictable policies. Other countries will easily find new trade partners, leaving the U.S. at a disadvantage.
  3. The chaos caused by tariffs leads to significant financial burdens on lower-income households. The overall economic impact will hurt many people, especially those with less money.
269 implied HN points โ€ข 08 Jan 25
  1. Al Gore and Bill Clinton came close to tackling climate change 30 years ago, but some politicians blocked progress.
  2. Dealing with global warming will likely cost a lot of money in the future, especially for managing wildfires.
  3. The biggest future dangers from climate change may not be wildfires, but issues related to water systems in Asia.
269 implied HN points โ€ข 17 Nov 24
  1. Throughout history, technological growth has drastically changed, particularly in the last 150 years. This period saw growth that's far beyond anything in earlier times.
  2. Today's society is much better off than before, with greater access to resources and technology. Most people have standards of living that are far superior compared to the past.
  3. Understanding our economic growth is complex. It's important to measure not just resources, but also how people work together and use ideas to improve life.
269 implied HN points โ€ข 29 May 25
  1. Kevin Warsh believes the Federal Reserve should not have authority over bank regulation and should defer to the Treasury instead. This raises questions about what role the Fed really should play in the financial system.
  2. Historically, the U.S. economy has struggled during banking crises due to a lack of a strong central bank. Events like the Panic of 1907 highlighted the need for a central authority to manage financial stability.
  3. The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve hinges on its ability to monitor and regulate banks. Without this oversight, its role as a lender of last resort becomes less effective, suggesting bank regulation is crucial to the Fed's mission.
269 implied HN points โ€ข 17 Nov 24
  1. Past societies often operated under systems of domination, where a small elite would take resources from the majority. This made it difficult for anyone to improve their situation without facing threats or violence.
  2. Technological progress today is much faster than in earlier times. This rapid change creates new challenges that previous societies never had to deal with, making lessons from the past less applicable.
  3. Understanding the internal workings of elite groups in past societies can provide some insights today. However, we shouldn't assume we are bound by their limitations because our circumstances are very different.
261 implied HN points โ€ข 17 Jun 25
  1. The Trump Mobile T1 smartphone is less about real technology and more about selling a confidence game. It's surprising how many people are willing to overlook this.
  2. The idea of making a high-spec phone in America for a low price is a fantasy. Real manufacturing takes much more investment and planning than what's being promised.
  3. Many reports about the T1 phone show uncertainty and skepticism. Experts think it's more of a marketing gimmick than a feasible product.
261 implied HN points โ€ข 08 Nov 24
  1. There is a question about whether people supported Trump because they wanted to believe false information, or if they believed false information because they supported Trump. It's a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation.
  2. Misinformation has a strong influence on voters, making it hard to trust what is said by those who oppose it. This makes it challenging for others to communicate different perspectives effectively.
  3. To make progress, some Republicans who want change may need to find ways to help their supporters understand the truth and make better choices about who to trust.
253 implied HN points โ€ข 22 Jan 25
  1. The course will focus on American economic history without trying to create a single, simple story. Instead, it will look at different themes and questions week by week.
  2. An important question will be whether America is exceptional and in what ways. This can help us better understand history and economics.
  3. Students will not only learn about historical events but also get a taste of data science to analyze economic models and improve their analytical skills.
253 implied HN points โ€ข 07 Dec 24
  1. Human society has evolved from slow, agricultural growth to rapid industrial progress, but we still struggle with managing this change effectively.
  2. The historical shift from cooperation to domination in societies has created challenges in creating systems that benefit everyone today.
  3. We have the potential for great prosperity, but we need better institutions to help us use our resources wisely and live well.
253 implied HN points โ€ข 03 Nov 24
  1. Populism has a history of connecting leaders with the people's needs. Unlike some modern populists, historical figures often focused on clear policy goals that aimed to help the public.
  2. Modern political movements sometimes rely more on fear and division rather than serving the public's needs. This shift can lead to leaders who promise protection without actual improvement in people's lives.
  3. The way people view historical figures like Andrew Jackson can change based on the context of their actions, showing that understanding history requires looking at both policies and motivations.
253 implied HN points โ€ข 03 Nov 24
  1. Nate Silver analyzes the 2024 presidential polls by juggling different polls and what they say about the voters. He's trying to figure out whether the surprising results are due to model errors or actual changes in voter behavior.
  2. He believes that some pollsters may be hesitant to share results that seem too far from expected outcomes, leading to overly tight poll results. This herding effect makes it hard to know what's really going on in the electorate.
  3. Silver highlights the conflict between different polls, like Selzer's showing a lead for Harris in Iowa and Siena's favoring Trump in Arizona. If both polls are correct, it could suggest big shifts in voter preferences since past elections.
253 implied HN points โ€ข 28 Oct 24
  1. The rally included extreme rhetoric aimed at migrants, suggesting a significant focus on immigration issues as a central theme. This brings our attention to the heated debate around immigration policies in the current political climate.
  2. There were indications of aligning certain statements with far-right ideologies, raising concerns about the nature of such rhetoric and who it appeals to. This shows a growing tension in political dialogues today.
  3. Audience reactions and interactions at the rally highlighted a culture of divisiveness and humor that many find offensive, which suggests a lingering acceptance of controversial humor in political discussions. This reflects broader societal attitudes on race and stereotypes.
246 implied HN points โ€ข 18 Nov 24
  1. Global warming is not just an environmental issue; it is changing how economies and societies work. The costs of addressing climate change could take away resources needed for future progress.
  2. As the climate shifts, we face serious challenges like unstable weather and changing environments. This affects our infrastructure and could lead to even worse disasters if not addressed quickly.
  3. Handling global warming will likely consume a lot of resources that could have helped us adapt to other economic changes. We need to think about how to support those who suffer as we transition to a more sustainable society.