The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

"I Expect A Crash": Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. A big market crash is expected, but policymakers will keep injecting liquidity to prop up asset prices, so strategies that benefit from those liquidity pulses can still do well.
  2. Focus on transactional and croupier businesses—brokers, exchanges and other market intermediaries—because they profit from asset-bubble activity and the migration of wealthy capital.
  3. Favor precious metals and select emerging markets while avoiding many real-economy and tech bets, since policy appears aimed at maximizing asset values rather than broad economic prosperity.

Top Links 827 Liquid gold. Anti-vax in America. Baltic bloom & The Fable of the Bees.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Gold is a very liquid asset, which means it can be easily bought and sold. This makes it a popular choice for investors.
  2. There is a significant focus on anti-vaccine sentiments in America, indicating a divide in public opinion about vaccines.
  3. The concept of the 'Baltic bloom' and the story of 'The Fable of the Bees' are important topics worth exploring to understand economic and social themes.
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STEALTH QE

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve implemented liquidity injections in response to financial chaos post-COVID-19, leading to a tapering process that raised questions about the true nature of the measures.
  2. Despite the apparent tapering by the Fed, financial markets didn't react as expected, hinting at an expansion in the authorities' toolkit that analysts might not fully comprehend.
  3. The evolution of liquidity measures and updated understandings about the Fed's balance sheet reveal a broader range of tools and potentially hidden liquidity injections.

Cea Weaver vs. The Entire Field Of Economics

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 60 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. Replacing market signals with collective ownership and a flat 30% rent destroys incentives. Builders stop building, maintenance declines, and allocation becomes political instead of efficient.
  2. Funding this by printing money fuels inflation and shifts purchasing power to asset holders and political insiders. That makes costs rise and hurts workers, renters, and savers.
  3. The combined effect is not more affordable housing but less housing and worse quality, plus expanding bureaucracy that benefits friends while everyone else waits. Shrinking private investment and political allocation create scarcity and decay.

The Great Rebalancing

Concoda • 513 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury is focusing on making the bond market stable instead of pushing political goals. This means they might hold back on issuing long-term debt for a while.
  2. Many global investors are interested in buying short-term U.S. debt, which is seen as safer. The demand is so high that the U.S. Federal Reserve may start purchasing more to keep the market in balance.
  3. There are ongoing changes in how the Federal Reserve manages its assets, which could affect interest rates and availability of cash in the banking system.

The Case For A 30% Market Crash

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Markets are extremely overvalued and both stocks and bonds are heavily over-owned, making prices fragile and prone to a large correction.
  2. Weak consumer demand, speculative AI capex, rising tariffs, and a Fed tolerant of higher inflation together threaten profit margins and could force P/E multiples significantly lower.
  3. If multiples revert to more normal levels (around 17x), the S&P could drop over 30% even without an earnings decline, and a falling 'E' would make the crash much worse.

"Chaos" Is Coming In 2026, Says Gold Guru Who Returned 174% In 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Gold and silver rallied sharply in 2025, and precious metals miners massively outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq as investors rotated away from frothy tech stocks toward hard assets.
  2. Silver experienced a real supply shortage and heavy delivery demand in the paper futures market, highlighting a tight physical market that pushed prices higher.
  3. The Federal Reserve resumed big balance-sheet expansion in December 2025, renewing liquidity and debt concerns that are boosting demand for gold and could lead to market turbulence in 2026.

Justin Yifu Lin warns U.S. AI bubble will burst in 5 years, causing another international crisis

Pekingnology • 120 implied HN points • 07 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. Experts believe the AI boom in the U.S. could lead to a financial crisis, similar to what happened in 2008. If the AI bubble bursts, it could have a big impact on the global economy.
  2. China is encouraged to change its economic policies to boost growth. By investing more in technology and infrastructure, China can improve its economy and overcome challenges from the U.S.
  3. Some common beliefs about China's slow growth, like blaming state-owned companies or an aging population, are seen as misunderstandings. The real issues are weak global demand and restrictive technology access from the U.S.

The Dam Has Burst In Silver And Gold - Now What?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Silver and gold have surged sharply — silver is up about 6% and trading near $91 an ounce, signaling a major breakout in precious metals.
  2. This move looks like a "blow-off valve" for excess money printing. Precious metals are absorbing the inflationary pressure that monetary expansion creates.
  3. Whether this is a short squeeze or a blow-off top is less important than the practical choice investors face about taking profits, and there are signs the run-up may not be over.

Our Liquidity Addiction Continues

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed has begun a modest, ongoing balance-sheet expansion—buying short-dated Treasuries to keep banks flush with reserves and control short-term rates—which is a "gradual print" that should be mildly supportive for asset prices and mildly dollar-negative.
  2. Severe shocks like a recession, a large-scale financial or kinetic conflict, or sudden foreign sell-offs could force much larger, faster Fed purchases measured in the trillions, while a change in Fed leadership might try to shrink the balance sheet but would only have limited, mostly technical effects.
  3. Japan’s rising bond yields are a real risk but not an immediate systemic collapse: the BOJ owns a large share of the debt and Japan has big FX reserves and a current-account surplus, so policymakers have tools (yield-curve control, reserve sales) to manage it; investors should favor high-quality, scarce assets and rebalance away from overheated areas.

"The End Of The Monetary Road": Larry Lepard On Gold, Silver & Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The global monetary system looks like it's nearing a major breaking point, with charts pointing to a secular change and rising monetary chaos.
  2. Gold and silver have already made stratospheric moves, and investors who positioned early saw huge gains (one fund reported about 170% in 2025).
  3. These market signals are getting little mainstream attention but deserve close watching into 2026, especially for precious metals and Bitcoin as potential hedges.

Central Bankers Blaming the Victims

cryptoeconomy • 884 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Central bankers are blaming people for inflation to divert attention from their own actions
  2. The 'Greedflation' narrative sets the masses against each other while the elite benefits
  3. Inflation is being driven by government greed and printing of trillions, impacting the public negatively

Chartbook 348 Dollar-like: eurodollars, crypto and the future of global money.

Chartbook • 1101 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Eurodollars are dollars held and used outside the US, which allow businesses around the world to conduct transactions without relying solely on the US banking system. This system grew because companies wanted to avoid US regulations and sanctions.
  2. Stablecoins, like eurodollars, are dollar-linked assets that facilitate transactions, providing a bridge between cryptocurrency and traditional money. They promise to maintain a value equal to the US dollar, similar to how eurodollars work.
  3. The future of stablecoins may involve replacing eurodollars in global finance, but their stability and growth depend on stronger backing systems and regulatory support to avoid issues that have affected both eurodollars and cryptocurrencies.

Warsh Or Not, The Fed’s Next Chair Will Inherit Too Much Power

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed has turned crisis tools into permanent powers, like a standing repo facility and huge emergency lending programs, without clear sunset clauses or limits.
  2. Those powers let the Fed act beyond its original mandate — extending credit to borrowers Congress never explicitly authorized and exercising wide regulatory discretion, as seen in decisions around crypto banks.
  3. Weak oversight and accountability (no independent inspector general and only semiannual Congressional checks) invite political pressure and create moral hazard, making firms more dependent on the Fed and eroding its independence and credibility.

December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The housing market is in a long, slow recovery: construction, rents, and prices are gradually rising and a housing shortage makes a conventional recession hard to trigger.
  2. Measured inflation is roughly at the 2% target once shelter is excluded, but recent CPI gains are mainly driven by rent/shelter and a bit of tariff-driven noise.
  3. Policy and shocks matter: tariffs and looser Fed policy could lift inflation again, but without a major shock or chaotic policy change the slow recovery should keep chugging along as new homebuilding slowly raises capacity.

Substack And The Rise Of The Degenerate Economist

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Independent publishing platforms are upending financial media by letting direct, high‑conviction voices build audiences and monetize their work, so truth and freedom of speech are winning followers.
  2. Contrarian analysts who backed precious metals and other nonconsensus trades were vindicated, and their accuracy has driven growing readership and revenue for independent writers.
  3. Legacy financial outlets will have to adapt by bringing in independent voices and more balanced, merit‑based commentary or they’ll keep losing viewers while independents gain influence.

Top Links 806 The most expensive object in the world. The US deficit and the voracity effect. Dreamcore and 2&3W-motorization.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The most expensive object in the world has caught people's attention, sparking curiosity about its value and history.
  2. The US deficit is being discussed in relation to the 'voracity effect', which looks at how increases in income lead to more spending.
  3. Dreamcore and the rise of motorization with two and three-wheel vehicles suggest changing trends in how people expect to travel.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.

Why Can’t I Have My Own Money Printer?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. If an individual could print money, they'd likely stop producing and live off others because printing is easier than earning, which creates money without creating goods or services.
  2. If everyone printed money, production would collapse and the economy would be flooded with worthless bills, since there would be lots of money but few goods to buy.
  3. The government can also create money and temporarily boost demand, but that too can't substitute for real production, raising a hard question about why private money printing is illegal while institutional money creation is allowed.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 345 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury is planning to issue up to $1 trillion to rebuild its cash balance. This means there will be a lot of money coming into the market soon.
  2. Interest rates for overnight money are likely to increase, as cash levels are tight. The Federal Reserve is expected to intervene to manage these rates if necessary.
  3. There’s a growing uncertainty about the money markets, and upcoming events like Treasury announcements will be closely watched by traders.

Imminent Yield Curve Uninversion

The Bitcoin Layer • 412 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed made minor adjustments to monetary policy recently, ending certain borrowing and investing practices in banks.
  2. The Fed is preparing banks for potential crises by encouraging them to use existing facilities like the discount window.
  3. Financial stability is a concern due to leveraged banks and risky lenders of last resort, indicating underlying instability in the financial system.

All Time High Everything

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 222 implied HN points • 19 Sep 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Asset prices are at all-time highs, so wages and earned income matter less for net wealth and rate cuts/additional liquidity mostly benefit asset owners while eroding purchasing power.
  2. Monetary policy and political incentives now push to support equity prices—Fed easing, vast retirement savings into stocks, and global dollar flows (plus a weakening dollar) are lifting both equities and gold together.
  3. Demographics and fiscal choices are shifting wealth toward older generations and burdening the young, leaving three plausible paths ahead: sustained productivity-led gains, a tech/AI-driven bubble and bust, or an inflation/currency-driven market that masks real weakness.

BOJ Finally Pulls the Trigger on Rate Policy, But It’s a Low-Caliber Gun

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. BOJ's interest rate policy tweak is more about changing the mechanism to keep rates low, gradually raising overnight rates from negative to low positive percentages over time.
  2. Ending Yield Curve Control means BOJ stops directly controlling long-term rates but still aims to keep them low by continuing to buy the same amount of long-term bonds.
  3. BOJ remains focused on low inflation and plans to raise interest rates if it rises too high, but for now, it sees current inflation as temporary due to global factors.

Levelling up my MMT (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 99 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The piece emphasizes deepening practical and conceptual understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to 'level up' how the idea is used.
  2. It reflects on the tension between technocratic, expert-driven knowledge and democratic, public-facing uses of knowledge, and why that difference matters for policy.
  3. The write-up is presented as the first part of a paid, subscriber-focused series, signalling an ongoing, deliberate exploration rather than a one-off note.

The Art of Crypto Kayfabe

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1076 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The investment world can be likened to a wrestling league where different assets compete for your money. Each asset has its own story or gimmick to attract investors, just like wrestlers have unique personas.
  2. Bitcoin is often seen as a rebellious fighter trying to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but it also plays a tricky game of pretending to be both a currency and an investment asset. This duality creates confusion about its true value and purpose.
  3. Like wrestling matches, the market can be influenced by emotions and narratives. The way assets are portrayed and the stories built around them affect how people perceive their worth and make investment decisions.

The Powell Affair and the Limits of The Fed’s Immunity

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. Public officials, including the Fed chair, must be held accountable if they misled Congress; oversight is a constitutional check, not a political gimmick.
  2. Central bank independence should not mean immunity from law or oversight, especially given the Fed’s recent policy overreach and failures like high inflation.
  3. Political motives do not excuse shielding officials from investigation; enforcing the law preserves democratic accountability and forces a debate about how much power the government should have over money.

The Shadow Cash Market: Part II

Concoda • 270 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market is facing challenges with liquidity, prompting officials to consider delaying issuance of long-term bonds until 2027.
  2. There's a growing trend of 'shadow cash markets' emerging as alternatives to traditional cash markets, allowing participants a means to access liquidity that is influenced by stricter regulations.
  3. New trading mechanisms in these shadow markets could pose risks during crises, as they may continue to obstruct major market players despite efforts to stabilize the system.

The Dollar's Death In 2026 Is Now A Mainstream Talking Point

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 49 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The US dollar’s global dominance is eroding as countries and blocs build alternative settlement systems and settle more trade in local currencies, making the dollar increasingly optional.
  2. US fiscal and monetary policy choices plus the weaponization of dollar-based finance are pushing other nations to de-dollarize, and the US Treasury market shows structural fragility that often needs central bank support in stress.
  3. Market signals—rising gold and silver, growth of RMB-linked and commodity-backed stablecoins, and wider mainstream coverage—suggest a steady loss of confidence in the dollar rather than a sudden collapse, with major shifts likely ahead.

The US Must Return To A Gold Standard

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The dollar has been heavily debased over time because the government and the Fed keep creating money, which erodes purchasing power and risks a currency collapse.
  2. Reinstating a gold standard—by promising future redeemability of dollars for gold at the market price and never suspending that promise—would force strict monetary discipline.
  3. Without a hard money anchor like gold, politicians will keep hiding the real costs of spending and war through inflation, so only a gold-based system can deliver lasting monetary stability.

Beyond Growth: A Strategy for Tackling Power. My speech to the EU Conference

System Change • 668 implied HN points • 29 May 23
🌍 World Politics Monetary Policy
  1. The Money Interest holds real power over the planet and must be challenged by focusing on monetary policy.
  2. The economic model discussed highlights the need to shift focus from attacking the 99% for consumption to holding the 1% accountable for overproduction.
  3. To mobilize the majority for change, we must shine a light on the finance sector, educate ourselves on monetary policy, and focus on challenging the 1% instead of the 99%.

Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS sharply tightened MBS/Treasury spreads and pushed current-coupon MBS yields down, even producing a briefly negative option-adjusted spread.
  2. The $200 billion figure likely matches the GSEs' room under the Treasury agreement, so they will probably fund purchases by issuing debt and reallocating Treasury holdings and hedge with longer-dated instruments; because spreads are so tight, debt‑financed MBS could have low or negative risk‑adjusted returns, so investors should plan an exit strategy.
  3. Model estimates of the real neutral fed funds rate imply a nominal neutral range roughly in the low to mid 3% area depending on inflation expectations, so the Fed’s current 3.5%–3.75% target is around or slightly above neutral.