The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Financial System is in a Death Spiral

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 59 implied HN points • 09 May 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Central Banks Financial system
  1. The financial system is facing a crisis with inflation rates far exceeding official figures, leading to a significant decrease in purchasing power for individuals.
  2. Central banks are struggling to control inflation through traditional methods like interest rate hikes due to the risk of causing economic turmoil and further financial instability.
  3. There are no easy solutions to the current financial crisis - whether governments keep printing money or raise interest rates, both options have significant downsides that can lead to widespread poverty.

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Fiscal policy Quantitative Easing
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

January 2024 CPI Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Inflation Federal Reserve
  1. Reaction to monthly CPI updates often fails to consider the lag affecting the shelter component, leading to surprises in news interpretation.
  2. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut were influenced by the latest report, shifting them further in the future.
  3. Monetary measures like currency in circulation and M2 trended down post-Covid scare, while the Fed's balance sheet shrinks without obvious disruption.

Deflation Nation?

Diane Francis • 339 implied HN points • 13 Dec 21
💰 Finance Inflation Economics Monetary Policy Market Trends Consumer behavior
  1. Inflation worries are often exaggerated due to flawed measurements like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). People react strongly to these numbers, but they might not tell the full story.
  2. The reported inflation rate in America is at a high of 6.8%, causing a lot of concern and discussion. It's important to look at the bigger picture and the methods used to calculate this figure.
  3. Traditional metrics may not accurately represent the current economic situation. Understanding the limits of these measurements can help in better navigating economic discussions.

No, I don't think the Fed drives future yields

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Quantitative Easing Market Trends
  1. Forward interest rates are mainly driven by changing economic productivity and sentiment, with the Fed playing a secondary role.
  2. Market sentiment about real future economic activity has a significant impact on interest rates.
  3. Most of the changes in long-term bond yields since 1989 have occurred during Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
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The Death of QT

The Last Bear Standing • 179 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Sector Market Analysis Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.

The Fed left rates steady as expected at 5.50%, stocks and gold at all-time highs

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Reaction
  1. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 5.50% and foresees 3 cuts in 2024. First cut likely in June despite some inflation increase.
  2. The Fed plans to slow down the balance sheet reduction pace in the upcoming year, affecting market movements positively.
  3. Market reaction to the Fed's decisions saw all-time highs for stocks and gold, with bonds and cryptocurrencies rallying, and a drop in US dollar and VIX index volatility.

Five Themes of 2023

The Last Bear Standing • 116 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Forecast Monetary Policy Tech Stocks Market volatility Banking Sector
  1. The recession that has been expected is delayed, and there are indications that the economy continues to grow.
  2. Inflation is decreasing, and the Federal Reserve aims to maintain this trend through its monetary policy.
  3. The technology sector has seen a resurgence in 2023, particularly in big tech companies and AI developments.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth Inflation Housing Market
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

What is Yi Gang trying to say in his 1st interview after retiring from PBoC?

Pekingnology • 71 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economics Monetary Policy Currency Financial history Central Banking
  1. Yi Gang discussed the historical significance of Jiaozi, the first paper money, and its implications for currency policies
  2. He emphasized the importance of competition under constraints for a successful monetary system
  3. Yi Gang highlighted the necessity of establishing and enhancing modern central bank systems to maintain currency stability

Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

Federal Reserve Policymakers Meet This Week and Ask: “Are We There Yet?”

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation GDP History
  1. The Federal Reserve may lower policy rates due to a significant difference between core PCE and core CPI.
  2. The Fed might not need to act as the economy is thriving with high growth rates.
  3. Fed's caution is influenced by past inflation battles and current inflation metrics compared to historical data.

The Bear is Back!

The Last Bear Standing • 89 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Markets Debt Ceiling
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.

Grading the Trade

The Last Bear Standing • 101 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.

The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Conflicts
  1. Geopolitical volatility and flawed monetary policy make current times unique and potentially volatile.
  2. Debt levels, monetary policies, and government spending are creating unprecedented financial challenges.
  3. Artificial market boosts, geopolitical tensions, and social unrest are contributing to a fragile economic situation.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

The Catalyst That Could 'Standardize' Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Financial Crisis Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated through a major financial crisis where people seek an exit ramp from the traditional financial system.
  2. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin allows for success to be tied to its growth, empowering individuals who are tired of traditional financial institutions.
  3. Bitcoin offers a chance for the public to break the cycle of bearing the cost of financial failures by opting out of the current system and embracing digital freedom.

Did the Fed engineer a soft landing?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Inflation Wealth Distribution
  1. The Fed helped lower inflation significantly, reducing core inflation by about two percentage points. However, most of the drop in inflation came from factors outside the Fed's control, like global demand changes.
  2. High-income households have played a big role in keeping the US economy strong during tough times. Their spending helped prevent a recession, even as lower-income groups struggled more.
  3. While the Fed's actions can be seen as positive for the economy, they also disproportionately benefited the wealthy. This raises questions about how well the overall economy truly supports everyone.

How long? How variable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economic Growth Interest Rates Consumer spending
  1. The effects of interest rate hikes from the Fed can take a long time to show in the economy, often around 40 months. This means changes don’t happen immediately after decisions are made.
  2. Different types of goods react to rate hikes differently. For example, inflation for durable goods can keep rising right after a hike, while nondurable goods start to decrease right away.
  3. Today’s economy is more service-oriented than it was decades ago, making it harder to control inflation. This shift means that the impact of monetary policy is felt later and inflation management becomes more complex.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

Core Inflation is (Finally) Cooling

Apricitas Economics • 46 implied HN points • 13 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Monetary Policy
  1. Core inflation is cooling, signaling a potential slowdown in inflationary pressure.
  2. Data shows a decline in core services inflation and rent prices, indicating progress in curbing inflation.
  3. Businesses and markets expect inflation to remain above 2% in the near future, but long-run inflation expectations are stable.