The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy De-dollarization
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

The Catalyst That Could 'Standardize' Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Financial Crisis Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated through a major financial crisis where people seek an exit ramp from the traditional financial system.
  2. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin allows for success to be tied to its growth, empowering individuals who are tired of traditional financial institutions.
  3. Bitcoin offers a chance for the public to break the cycle of bearing the cost of financial failures by opting out of the current system and embracing digital freedom.

Proceeding Recklessly

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Housing Affordability Banking System
  1. The Fed's forward guidance has significant implications for market outlook, creating uncertainty for the rest of the year.
  2. There are concerns about a bear steepening of the Treasury Curve due to increased Treasury supply and reduced buyers.
  3. Housing affordability has been negatively impacted by monetary policy, leading to structural changes in rental rates.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

No, I don't think the Fed drives future yields

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Quantitative Easing Market Trends
  1. Forward interest rates are mainly driven by changing economic productivity and sentiment, with the Fed playing a secondary role.
  2. Market sentiment about real future economic activity has a significant impact on interest rates.
  3. Most of the changes in long-term bond yields since 1989 have occurred during Federal Open Market Committee meetings.

Modern Industrial Policy

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 78 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Market Analysis
  1. The equity market faced a valuation correction, driven by different sectors and Treasury supply issues.
  2. Strong growth data and monetary policy shifts are impacting financial conditions and asset valuations.
  3. Investment outlook suggests potential for disorderly market shifts despite some attractiveness in fixed income.

Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Housing Market Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

The Fed & the Central Banking Order of Operations

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Central Banking Monetary Policy Inflation Communication
  1. Central banks follow a specific order of operations during financial crises, involving rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency liquidity facilities.
  2. Dallas Fed President raised the idea of separating asset runoff from rate adjustments, suggesting that the balance sheet and rate policy can be independent during market instability.
  3. Fed officials are discussing the possibility of actively growing the balance sheet during monetary tightening, signaling a potential shift from the traditional central banking order of operations.

The Death of QT

The Last Bear Standing • 179 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Sector Market Analysis Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.

Guan Tao on the yuan's exchange rate as an asset price

Pekingnology • 15 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Financial Stability Monetary Policy
  1. China's Renminbi exchange rate is now seen as an asset price, showing characteristics of asset pricing and requiring an understanding beyond traditional commodity money views.
  2. The flexibility of the Renminbi exchange rate helps release pressure, acts as a shock absorber, and ensures market resilience in the face of fluctuations.
  3. Maintaining a flexible exchange rate policy supports China's pursuit of institutional openness, providing coordination between development and security.

Federal Reserve Policymakers Meet This Week and Ask: “Are We There Yet?”

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation GDP History
  1. The Federal Reserve may lower policy rates due to a significant difference between core PCE and core CPI.
  2. The Fed might not need to act as the economy is thriving with high growth rates.
  3. Fed's caution is influenced by past inflation battles and current inflation metrics compared to historical data.

A Tale of Two Currencies

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Currency Inflation Monetary Policy Central Bank Financial Crisis
  1. Argentina has a history of economic turmoil with multiple currency crises and hyperinflations.
  2. The government deficit in Argentina has grown significantly since 2011, leading to economic challenges.
  3. Potential solutions for Argentina's economic crisis include complete dollarization, adopting a Bitcoin standard, or exploring joint currencies with other countries like China.

The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Conflicts
  1. Geopolitical volatility and flawed monetary policy make current times unique and potentially volatile.
  2. Debt levels, monetary policies, and government spending are creating unprecedented financial challenges.
  3. Artificial market boosts, geopolitical tensions, and social unrest are contributing to a fragile economic situation.

Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

Iceberg Risk

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 117 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic outlook Market Analysis Monetary Policy Investment strategy
  1. The economic outlook for 2023 differs from the consensus, with expectations of lower inflation and resilient growth.
  2. The treasury curve suggests an improved growth outlook without an increase in inflation expectations.
  3. The earnings recession seen in certain sectors is recovering, indicating a positive trend in earnings revisions.

The Stock and Flow of M2

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 98 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Investing Market Analysis
  1. Focus on the rate of change in the money supply to understand the flow of money and system liquidity.
  2. The stock of money may be excessive, but the growth rate is rapidly declining, affecting the outlook for monetary policy and Treasuries.
  3. The impact of monetary policy on housing demand and global manufacturing was immediate in 2022.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Economy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

The Bear is Back!

The Last Bear Standing • 89 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Markets Debt Ceiling
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.

Grading the Trade

The Last Bear Standing • 101 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Fiscal policy Quantitative Easing
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.