The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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This Is The Most Important Thing We Can Build With AI

America 2.0 (by Gary Sheng) • 216 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI Data Analysis Decision-making
  1. A human-powered, AI-supercharged network is crucial to make collective decisions and bring about positive change.
  2. The bottleneck to effective coordination lies in the quality of input data in attempts to coordinate.
  3. An AI-powered civic information network can revolutionize our ability to understand collective desires and serve the community better.

systems *doing* and complexity *doing*

The Beautiful Mess • 79 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💼 Business Systems Thinking Complexity Theory Collaboration Organizational Culture Decision-making
  1. Bringing different people together in a fun way can help create new connections and ideas. It's important for everyone to share their unique perspectives.
  2. Sometimes it's better to wait and see what happens instead of jumping into action right away. This allows space for good ideas to emerge naturally.
  3. You can simplify complex issues to help understand them, but always remember to keep the messy details nearby so you don't lose important context.

Win the War, Lose the Battle

The Radar • 59 implied HN points • 09 Apr 24
💾 History Military Cold War Decision-making Innovation
  1. Firing military commanders without clear explanations can have significant strategic consequences and impact an organization's long-term success.
  2. The responsible exercise of authority is crucial for the best interest of military organizations and the importance of transparency in such decisions.
  3. Unwarranted firings can not only destroy individual careers but also detrimentally affect the entire organization and potentially alter the course of history.

Good value governance

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Governance Policy Decision-making Risk management Resource Allocation
  1. There's a lot of uncertainty in today's world, not just risk. This means leaders need to understand how these two concepts differ to make better decisions.
  2. Mixing up uncertainty with risk can lead to poor choices and wasted resources. It's important to clarify what you're dealing with to avoid making mistakes.
  3. When leaders are clear about uncertainty, they can use their limited resources more effectively. Strategies that focus on uncertainty tend to be cheaper and work better than traditional risk management.
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Some ways Software Engineers can 10x results with Bayesian Thinking [Math Mondays]

Technology Made Simple • 199 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Software Engineering Machine Learning Inference Debugging Decision-making
  1. Bayesian Thinking can improve software engineering productivity by updating beliefs with new knowledge.
  2. Bayesian methods help in tasks like prioritizing, A/B testing, bug fixing, risk assessment, and machine learning.
  3. Using Bayesian Thinking in software engineering can lead to more efficient and effective decision-making.

Bill vs. Ted

The Radar • 59 implied HN points • 03 Apr 24
💼 Business Leadership Promotions Processes Organizational Culture Decision-making
  1. In promotion processes, advocacy, arbitrariness, and detachment can influence outcomes, sometimes leading to the wrong candidate being chosen.
  2. The complexity and overbuilt nature of promotion processes can obscure the best candidate, favoring manipulation over merit.
  3. Balancing objectivity and fairness in promotions is crucial, as promoting the right people leads to positive organizational outcomes.

mastering group dynamics

Midnight Musings • 1 HN point • 20 Sep 24
🎭️ Culture Anthropology Social Dynamics Decision-making Cultural Identity
  1. Effective group dynamics rely on creating a shared identity where group outcomes are prioritized over personal gains. This unity helps groups work better together.
  2. Good discussions should focus on factual observations rather than emotions or personal pride. This means everyone should feel equally invited to share their views, which leads to better decisions.
  3. Instead of competing to win arguments, groups should aim for collaboration and understanding. Keeping conversations calm and focused helps maintain positive group relationships.

Data will not tell you what to do

Inside Data by Mikkel Dengsøe • 184 HN points • 21 Feb 24
💼 Business Decision-making Problem Solving Innovation Product Management Efficiency
  1. Data may not reveal the best ideas, so trust your intuition and explore beyond the obvious data points.
  2. Focus on solving the big problems first, as they have a more significant impact than smaller issues.
  3. Think in small bets and iterations to make progress in the right direction, even if data may not provide immediate clarity.

A new strategy doesn't always have a happy ending

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 39 implied HN points • 07 May 24
💼 Business Strategy Leadership Decision-making Emotional Intelligence Organizational Change
  1. Starting a new strategy can be hard because it involves making tough emotional choices, not just doing more work.
  2. Leaders may need to make difficult decisions, like letting people go or stopping projects that aren't working, which can be challenging.
  3. Being honest among team members is really important to deal with these emotional decisions effectively.

The Cure to Many Corporate Ills

The Digital Leader Newsletter -- By John Rossman • 176 implied HN points • 18 May 23
💼 Business Leadership Innovation Strategy Decision-making
  1. Customer centricity is vital for businesses to succeed by focusing on customers' needs and expectations.
  2. Amazon's example shows the power of customer-centricity in driving innovation and improving customer experience.
  3. To become more customer-centric, businesses can start by defining what it means for them, exploring current examples, envisioning future scenarios, and drafting guidelines.

How To Swear At Your Coworkers

The Ruffian • 288 implied HN points • 04 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Leadership Crisis Management Workplace culture Decision-making
  1. The use of swearing in the workplace can indicate a lack of self-discipline and quality of thought.
  2. Swearing, when used strategically and thoughtfully, can be a powerful tool for impactful communication.
  3. Maintaining a balance between reasonableness and assertiveness is crucial, knowing when to speak up even if it requires using strong language.

The election model is a little too popular

Silver Bulletin • 334 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election coverage Media influence Decision-making Forecasting Partisanship
  1. The election model became overwhelmingly popular, potentially overshadowing other content.
  2. The author is considering different strategies to manage the model's audience and impact.
  3. There are various options being considered, like putting the model behind a paywall or appealing to different types of audiences.

Decisions depend on the decision maker

Overthinking Everything • 419 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
🚌 Education Decision-making Gaming Learning Expertise Teaching
  1. Decisions depend on who is making them, as individual factors influence the best choice.
  2. Even in games with 'objective' optimal strategies, decisions are subjective based on each player's abilities and knowledge.
  3. Beginners should consider their own strengths and weaknesses when making decisions, rather than just emulating experts.

The drunkard and the lady

inexactscience • 79 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Mathematics Vision Decision-making Science
  1. Having a vision can help you make significant progress in life. Instead of just wandering aimlessly, a clear goal can lead you to where you want to go.
  2. Without a direction, your progress will be limited and unpredictable. You might only cover a small distance instead of reaching your true potential.
  3. In life, it's important to develop a sense of direction. The more focused and goal-oriented you are, the further you'll move towards your aspirations.

Impact of 'noise' on assessing school shooting threats

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 39 implied HN points • 15 Apr 24
🚌 Education Research School Safety Assessment Training Decision-making
  1. Noise is the unwanted variability in decisions made by different experts looking at the same information.
  2. Variability in assessing threats leads to inconsistency and high costs, such as locking down schools and deploying officers.
  3. Conducting noise audits can reveal inconsistencies in decision-making, highlighting the importance of understanding and reducing noise in evaluating school shooting threats.

The case for narrow utilitarianism

inexactscience • 99 implied HN points • 08 Dec 23
📖 Philosophy Ethics Utilitarianism Critical Thinking Decision-making Moral Philosophy
  1. Utilitarianism is about making choices that increase overall well-being and treats everyone equally. It's a way of thinking that encourages using data and math to improve lives.
  2. While utilitarianism sounds good, taking it too far can lead to poor decisions and people justifying bad behavior. It's important to recognize our own biases and limits.
  3. Narrow utilitarianism suggests we apply these ideas only in clear situations where we understand the problems well. It's better to stay focused and cautious rather than trying to force comparisons between very different choices.

3 Ways to Make More Innovative Decisions

Ruben Ugarte's Growth Needle™ • 59 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💼 Business Innovation Decision-making Leadership Management Entrepreneurship
  1. Innovative decisions are about thinking outside the box. They involve finding unique solutions to problems, rather than just solving them traditionally.
  2. Everyone makes many decisions daily, but not all are innovative. It's important to recognize the difference to encourage creativity in decision-making.
  3. Learning about your natural abilities can help improve your decision-making. Understanding what you're good at can lead to more innovative choices.

Reading the game

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
📖 Philosophy Risk Uncertainty Decision-making Game Theory Innovation
  1. Most games are about taking risks rather than dealing with true uncertainty. In games, the rules and winning conditions are usually clear.
  2. Understanding the difference between risky situations and those filled with true uncertainty is important. Real-life problems, like climate change, involve a lot more unknowns.
  3. To get better at handling uncertainty, we should expose ourselves regularly to uncertain situations. This helps us learn and grow in a world that often feels unpredictable.

A 3-Part Series: Thriving Across the Worlds of Finance, Business, Data, and Technology

The Data Score • 118 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
💼 Business Finance Technology Data Decision-making Integration
  1. Problems in the fields of finance, business, data, and technology are becoming more interconnected and complex.
  2. There is a need to break down silos and create alignment among stakeholders to make more impactful decisions.
  3. Increasing overlap between business, data, and technology requires expertise from multiple domains to navigate high-risk environments.

Why "bias for action" is not good enough

The Caring Techie Newsletter • 11 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Software Engineering Project management Leadership Decision-making Risk management
  1. Having a 'bias for action' can be good, but it's not always the right approach. Sometimes, acting without enough thought can lead to bigger problems.
  2. In situations where you don't fully understand the problem, it might be better to wait and gather more information before jumping to conclusions.
  3. Instead of rushing into decisions, take a moment to think things through. Thoughtful action can help you make better choices.

When prospect theory and poker bubbles collide

The Leap • 1 HN point • 12 Sep 24
🎾 Sports Poker Decision-making Psychology Risk management Gaming
  1. In poker tournaments, players often face decisions that can greatly affect their outcomes. Choosing whether to play it safe or take risks can make all the difference in winnings.
  2. Prospect theory shows that people view gains and losses differently, often fearing losses more than valuing equivalent gains. This means players may avoid risks, even when the potential rewards are greater.
  3. Even though playing aggressively didn't work out this time, taking calculated risks can lead to bigger rewards in the long run. Balancing risk and safety is important in both poker and life.

How Process Impacts Your Culture

Ways of Working • 98 implied HN points • 19 Jul 23
💼 Business Organizational Culture Decision-making Workflow Employee engagement
  1. Our personal relationship with process can impact how we work and interact with others, showing our organizational culture.
  2. Processes are applied in organizations in areas like people processes, team-level processes, company-level processes, and customer processes.
  3. Processes in organizations aim to facilitate work, reduce risk, ensure consistency, but can also hinder creative thinking if taken too far.

Book Review: “Clear Thinking" by Shane Parrish 5/5

Poczwardowski Notes • 78 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
📚 Literature Book review Decision-making Philosophical Storytelling
  1. The book explores clear thinking and decision-making holistically, starting with self-awareness and strengths/weaknesses, delving into the decision-making process, and ending with a philosophical reflection on what truly matters.
  2. An interesting tool suggested in the book is creating a personal board of advisors in your head, made up of people you value and trust, to gain different perspectives when making decisions.
  3. The book shares a recipe for turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results, but emphasizes that success depends on our implementation of the concepts discussed.