The hottest Decision-making Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

No country for old men?

A User's Guide to History • 235 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. Presidents have strengths and weaknesses, and age can impact their performance, but wisdom often outweighs age-related challenges
  2. Health issues can affect a president's ability to govern effectively, as seen with Wilson's stroke during the ratification of the Versailles treaty
  3. Age alone should not be a disqualifying factor for a presidential candidate; what truly matters is their ability to make sound decisions

Practical Almanac for Technical Program Managers

Building Rome(s) • 11 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Clarity is the foundation: name goals, constraints, and what “done” means early, use writing to force decisions, and revisit assumptions before they become hidden problems.
  2. Make ownership explicit and real: assign clear accountability and give matching authority so decisions get made and escalations don’t become the default.
  3. Execution is social and continuous: watch handoffs and weak signals at the edges, build structure to avoid heroics, and reinforce decisions and timing so surprises don’t erode trust.

Disaction Bias: When Doing Nothing Causes Disaster

Viruses Must Die • 35 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. People and institutions often default to doing nothing even when action would prevent predictable harm; the coined term "disaction" captures this refusal to act that leads to avoidable disasters.
  2. A mix of psychological and institutional forces — omission bias, exaggerating the risks of acting while downplaying the risks of doing nothing, futility bias, vetos and status pressures, decorum, and failure of imagination — push decision‑makers toward inaction.
  3. Giving this bias a name makes it easier to spot across medicine, science, environment, housing, and government, and reminds us to try sensible actions, admit failures, and reform systems that reward safe-looking inaction.
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Returning Capital is Okay

Sriram Krishnan’s Newsletter • 432 implied HN points • 21 May 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. If your startup isn't progressing or you've lost passion, it's okay to consider returning capital.
  2. Being honest about your situation and returning capital isn't a sign of failure, but shows self-awareness.
  3. Returning capital can be a positive choice that allows you to reset and refocus.

Psychology Links, 2/5/2025

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🔬 Science Decision-making
  1. Humans tend to overreact to potential dangers. It's safer for our brains to think a harmless stick is a snake than to miss a real snake and get hurt.
  2. We often make decisions using shortcuts instead of thinking things through fully. This can lead to big mistakes because our brain swaps complicated questions for simpler ones quickly and without us noticing.
  3. Gossip plays a big role in how we connect with others. It helps us understand people's actions and build trust, showing how important social relationships are in our lives.

High Agency: The Mindset of Successful Leaders

The Engineering Leader • 218 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. High Agency means taking control of your life and making decisions without waiting for perfect conditions. It helps you be proactive and responsible for your outcomes.
  2. People with High Agency are resourceful and resilient, able to turn challenges into opportunities. They thrive on taking calculated risks and learning from their experiences.
  3. You can develop High Agency by taking initiative, accepting responsibility, and being adaptable. It's all about having the mindset to overcome obstacles and create your own path.

Case Study: The Palm on Deakin

Supernuclear • 359 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Having a flexible house configuration is important for long-term sustainability.
  2. Pre-existing trust can reduce the need for strict processes in co-living situations.
  3. Legal and financial decisions have significant impacts, so do thorough research before moving forward.

The Art Of Ignoring Career Advice

Mindful Modeler • 399 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🎭️ Culture Decision-making
  1. Consider advice that resonates with you and ignore what doesn't align with your values.
  2. Question general advice that may not be specific to your unique situation and priorities.
  3. Understand that advice is often based on the experiences and biases of the person giving it, so weigh it against your own goals.

Stop Arguing, Start Debating

The Breaking Point • 239 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Debating involves prepared discussions, clear decision-making frameworks, and open-mindedness to change opinions.
  2. Arguing results in repetitive discussions, lack of agreement, side factions, and revisiting decisions without objective reasoning.
  3. Monitoring if a team is debating or arguing is crucial to ensure effective teamwork and progress towards goals.

industrial decisions

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 393 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Industrial decisions involve standardization and division of labor to optimize efficiency.
  2. Industrializing decision-making processes can lead to increased efficiency but also create templates for fraud.
  3. Not all decision processes should be industrialized; monitoring and flexibility are crucial for long-term success.

Using Psychology to Improve User Onboarding

UX Psychology • 377 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. Leverage psychology in user onboarding to create informative, enjoyable, and memorable experiences.
  2. Utilize the Zeigarnik effect by using progress meters, reminders, and allowing partial profile completion to keep users engaged.
  3. Decrease complexity with Hicks' law by reducing choices, highlighting easy options, and using progressive onboarding to improve decision-making and enhance user experience.

eisenhower as cybernetician

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 373 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. Dwight Eisenhower highlighted the importance of maintaining balance in national programs and between private and public sectors.
  2. There was a new decision-making system created by the conjunction of military and industrial establishments.
  3. The warning was given that this system could generate outcomes not necessarily desired, seek growth, and be influenced by technological advancements.

A proposal for importing society’s values

Musings on the Alignment Problem • 519 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. AI systems like ChatGPT face value-based decisions that are complex and can be polarizing, highlighting the need to align AI to individual and group preferences.
  2. A proposed process called simulated deliberative democracy aims to use large language models to simulate human deliberations on value questions, offering a scalable and transparent approach.
  3. The proposal presents pros like scalability, transparency, and potential for inclusivity, but also faces challenges such as representativeness, aggregation method complexities, and difficulties in simulating how people change their minds.

Effectiveness is Signal minus Noise

A Bit Gamey • 20 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Effectiveness comes from identifying the few things that truly matter and subtracting everything that interferes with them.
  2. Noise is socially acceptable — it feels like progress because it produces meetings, frameworks and consensus, but it quietly drains momentum and attention.
  3. Real focus means saying no and cancelling projects even when it’s uncomfortable; ask what the signal is, what’s interfering, and what would happen if you removed that interference.

Minimum Viable Process

Lessons • 353 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Process is necessary as a company grows, but be cautious of adding too much without solving specific problems.
  2. Minimum Viable Process means starting from first principles and solving real pain with iterative changes.
  3. Good process can often mean removing things that are no longer effective or necessary.

Second Order Thinking

The Better Letter • 353 implied HN points • 18 May 23
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Second order thinking considers the potential unintended consequences of actions.
  2. Complex systems are prone to unexpected failures and consequences.
  3. Engaging in second order thinking can lead to better decision-making and anticipating outcomes.

Gigaheroes

Trantor Publishing • 159 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
⚔ Fiction Decision-making
  1. The protagonist shows conflicting emotions of thrill and despair while navigating through dangerous situations in the city.
  2. The story involves themes of betrayal, redemption, and facing the consequences of one's actions.
  3. There is a sense of urgency and sacrifice as characters make tough decisions to survive and protect each other in the face of danger.

TBM 275: "Bad" Strategy. Why?

The Beautiful Mess • 1256 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. A company strategy is actually a collection of individual strategies. Each person within a company has their own strategy they try to advocate for.
  2. The communicated strategy in a company is often a negotiated narrative, and the real strategy might not be fully disclosed. There are subtleties and contexts behind the scenes.
  3. Strategies are a negotiation. What may seem objectively right might not align with the current status quo. Different people in different roles might perceive and act on strategies uniquely.

Supreme Court Roulette

Adam's Legal Newsletter • 339 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. One proposed idea is Supreme Court Roulette, where a randomly selected Justice's view becomes the opinion of the Court.
  2. The current system of majority rule in the Supreme Court does not necessarily guarantee better or more reasoned decisions.
  3. Implementing Supreme Court Roulette could lead to more moderate decisions reflective of the country and improve incentives for the Justices.

The subtle art of not giving a f*ck

A Bit Gamey • 13 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. You already care about too many things; the solution is subtraction—choose a few priorities and ignore the rest so your actions have real impact.
  2. Recognize you're not uniquely entitled to success; accepting ordinariness lets you stop complaining and commit to the hard work that matters.
  3. Take responsibility for your responses, set boundaries by saying no, admit when you don't know, and use the reality of death to sharpen what you care about.

TBM 320: From Fluffy Concepts to Concrete Outcomes & Behaviors

The Beautiful Mess • 555 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. It's important to translate vague concepts into specific behaviors. Instead of saying you want to be 'data-driven,' describe actual actions that show you are doing this.
  2. Discussing behaviors as a team can spark valuable conversations and help everyone understand what needs to change. It allows people to share experiences and ideas in a meaningful way.
  3. When trying to improve team actions, focus on what gets in the way—like training gaps or social pressures. Identifying these barriers helps create better strategies for change.

You Cannot Be Afraid of Your Team

The Breaking Point • 179 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. If you let fear of how your team will react control your decisions, you're not really leading.
  2. It's important to seek your team's input but remember that final decisions are yours to make.
  3. As a leader, you need to accept that not everyone will be pleased with your decisions, and that's part of the job.

Call out the unsaid

Sriram Krishnan Substack • 294 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Speaking up about unspoken thoughts is important in a group setting.
  2. Being honest and courageous can earn you respect and push organizations forward.
  3. Encouraging open communication in a team can lead to a more comfortable work environment.

The First Principles of Uncertainty

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 222 implied HN points • 01 May 25
📖 Philosophy Decision-making
  1. Uncertainty is a normal part of life and can actually help us stay alert and learn new things. It's important to accept that some things are unpredictable, which makes it easier to handle tough situations.
  2. When making decisions, it helps to separate uncertainties that can be reduced by gaining more information from those that can't be controlled. This way, we can focus on what we can change instead of feeling overwhelmed.
  3. Taking action is a great way to reduce uncertainty. Even small steps can lead to new insights and help us feel more confident in our choices.

TBM 337: Pirates and Garbage Cans

The Beautiful Mess • 343 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Conflict in companies often stays unresolved because people are afraid to ask for help. This fear can make it look like admitting problems is a weakness.
  2. The Garbage Can model shows that decision-making is messy and often relies on chance rather than a clear process. Conflicts may get ignored until something urgent happens.
  3. Unlike businesses, pirate ships had systems in place for resolving conflicts because surviving together was crucial. Businesses can postpone resolving conflicts without facing immediate consequences, which can lead to bigger problems later.

Rethinking mindset

10x your mind • 119 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Decision-making
  1. Rethinking is a wise strategy and can lead to better outcomes.
  2. Cognitive laziness, identity crisis, and fear of admitting wrong hold us back from rethinking.
  3. Pausing to rethink can lead to more informed choices, stronger relationships, and a more fulfilling life.

Humans—and GPT-4—are predictably irrational

The Counterfactual • 219 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Decision-making
  1. Humans often make decisions based on emotions and biases, rather than pure logic. This means they're not always rational, which is important to understand.
  2. Large language models like GPT-4 can show similar irrational behaviors. They can make mistakes in judgment much like humans do, which gives insight into how we think.
  3. The way people attribute beliefs to others can change based on the situation. When faced with strong pressures, people are less likely to jump to conclusions about someone's beliefs.

TBM 268: "Going Deep"

The Beautiful Mess • 1018 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
💼 Business Decision-making
  1. Leaders should 'go deep' and understand team-level details to ensure success.
  2. During challenging times, it's crucial for leaders to understand tradeoffs to make informed decisions.
  3. Leaders should re-establish foundations to encourage direct interactions between teams and senior leaders.

Getting it Right vs. Getting Ahead

In My Tribe • 379 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Decision-making
  1. In a meeting, people can either aim to show they were on the winning side or focus on what will lead to the best long-term results. These two priorities often clash, especially in organizations.
  2. In academia, flattering important figures may help someone advance, even if it doesn't contribute to real knowledge. This can lead to challenges for those who prioritize truth over personal gain.
  3. It's common for workers to try to guess what their managers want rather than providing honest opinions. This can result in a culture where the truth is overlooked for the sake of advancement.