The hottest Economic Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

The Capitalist Crisis

America in Crisis • 59 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economy Inequality Financialization Stock Market Economic Policy
  1. The capitalist crisis is linked to a drop in capital productivity, which can indicate an unhealthy capitalist system due to factors like inequality affecting demand and economic output.
  2. High levels of inequality can lead to a shortage of demand, causing a decline in capital productivity and contributing to a capitalist crisis.
  3. Financialization of the economy and the shift from stakeholder capitalism to shareholder primacy culture can impact business investment decisions, distribution of profits, and even wage disparities in the financial sector.

October Mixed Bag

Net Interest • 3 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Banking Investments Markets Economic Policy Financial Services
  1. Compensation structures in firms can impact employee performance and morale. It's essential to find the right balance to keep people motivated.
  2. Understanding net interest income is important for assessing financial health. It reflects how well a company manages its income from loans and investments.
  3. Mixing insights from different financial areas can provide a broader perspective. This can help in making smarter decisions in finance and investments.

Seven and a half cents

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Social Impact Elite influence
  1. The song 'Seven and a half cents' from the 1954 musical 'Pajama Game' humorously portrayed the impact of a pay increase on workers over time, reflecting the changing economic landscape for working class Americans.
  2. After 1973, the 'rising tide' of economic prosperity ended, leading to a shift in economic policy and an increase in the need for upskilling to maintain living standards, impacting different generations in varied ways.
  3. The analysis of marriage prospects and income growth highlights how economic changes have influenced societal trends, showing disparities in income growth and social outcomes in different eras, emphasizing shifts in economic policy and culture.

How inequality reduction happened 80 years ago

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economic Policy Political History Taxation Social Policy
  1. Inequality reduction 80 years ago was achieved through a combination of high marginal tax rates, pro-labor policies, and strong economic stimulus.
  2. The handling of economic crises by political elites and the choice of policies played a significant role in resolving the issues without internal conflict.
  3. The alignment of political parties and the evolution of party composition have an impact on the feasibility of implementing policies to address inequality and economic instability.

Manchin: "[West Virginians] live within their means." In reality, the state is #1 in medical debt collections.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 99 implied HN points • 04 Nov 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Healthcare policy Economic Policy Social programs Legislation
  1. West Virginia has serious issues with medical debt, leading the nation in collections. This showcases the struggles many residents face in affording healthcare.
  2. Capping out-of-pocket costs for Medicare recipients could really help people in West Virginia. It would make medications more accessible for those who are struggling financially.
  3. Senator Manchin's views do not reflect the reality of many West Virginians. People are trying hard to manage their finances but find it tough due to high medical and living costs.
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March 11, 2024 (Monday)

Letters from an American • 11 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations National Security Legislation Economic Policy
  1. Authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary visited former president Trump in Florida, expressing support for stopping aid to Ukraine, even as U.S. officials stress its importance.
  2. President Biden's proposed budget for 2025 includes funding for Ukraine, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans' benefits, with an aim to reduce the deficit by taxing the wealthy and corporations.
  3. Historical analogies from FDR's era underscore the significance of providing aid to allies, as seen in the Lend-Lease Act during World War II, highlighting the critical nature of supporting democratic nations against dictatorships.

Opus 27: Notes on Davos & The WEF

The Opus Letter • 2 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Public Perception
  1. The World Economic Forum in Davos is hard to access and expensive. Many attendees stay in nearby towns since staying in Davos can cost a fortune.
  2. Networking opportunities at Davos are incredible. You can meet important leaders from various fields, and everyone is open to conversation.
  3. The disconnect between elite discussions and everyday people's concerns is noticeable. Many topics feel irrelevant to the average person, which fuels populism and frustration.

An economic puzzle of the Modi years : the hype is not followed by investment

Get Down and Shruti • 8 implied HN points • 09 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Investment Trends Infrastructure Governance
  1. Despite the positive claims about India's economic growth, there's a mismatch between the hype and actual investment. Many business leaders are cautious and not investing as expected.
  2. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which shows how much is being invested in long-lasting assets, has been low during Modi's years. This suggests businesses might not feel confident about the economy.
  3. Uncertainty from changes in policies and regulations makes businesses hesitant to invest long-term. A stable rule of law is crucial for encouraging investment and economic growth.

Regulation as a driver of investment risk

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investment Regulation Market risk Economic Policy
  1. Regulations can increase costs for businesses, affecting their profits. When companies have to spend more on compliance, their margins become thinner.
  2. Different industries face different levels of risk from regulations. For example, manufacturing has higher costs due to regulation compared to services.
  3. Investors should pay attention to companies with high regulatory risks since they can see bigger changes in their stock values. More regulation often means higher investment returns for those companies.

Union Karenina

Malt Liquidity • 6 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
💼 Business Labor relations Automotive Industry Market Analysis Economic Policy Company performance
  1. Coordinated efforts become stronger as the numbers grow, but the value of the individual diminishes.
  2. Union bargaining gains power with a critical mass of numbers, enabling negotiation for better terms.
  3. Tesla's success in the market is partly due to its non-unionized workforce, providing cost advantages compared to unionized competitors.

Extension of inflation model before 1948

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Balance Economic Policy
  1. The historical analysis shows how money flows, such as trade surpluses and fiscal deficits, can impact inflation and economic stability.
  2. The gold standard had a notable impact on economic conditions, causing deflation and influencing policies like interest rates and money supply.
  3. Active economic policy interventions, like wage and price controls during wartime, demonstrated effectiveness in controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy.

Capital Gains are Labor Income

Something to Consider • 0 implied HN points • 27 Apr 22
💰 Finance Taxation Investment Income Economic Policy
  1. Capital gains should be taxed like regular income because all investments require effort and analysis. It's unfair to give special tax breaks to those who already have wealth.
  2. Investing isn't just sitting back and earning money; it involves making decisions and taking risks. Therefore, it shouldn’t be treated so differently from labor income in tax policy.
  3. While there are suggestions to change how investment taxes work, confusing definitions of investments make it complicated. A simpler solution would be to treat all earnings as labor income and reduce advantages for the wealthy.

Zambia: What really is neoliberalism anyway?

Something to Consider • 0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Neoliberalism Corruption Economic Policy Privatization
  1. Zambia's economy heavily relies on copper exports, which makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. If copper prices rise, the economy does better, but if they fall, it struggles.
  2. The country's government is heavily involved in businesses, which leads to corruption and unfair practices in privatization. This has hurt the working class and limited overall economic growth.
  3. To improve Zambia's economy, reforms should focus on reducing corruption and managing state assets better before jumping into privatization. Just selling off state enterprises without good governance doesn't benefit the country.

Making Payroll

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 09 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Social Security Political Dynamics Legislation Economic Policy
  1. The payroll tax cut should stay focused on helping the American people, without getting mixed up in other political issues. If lawmakers complicate it too much, it might not go through.
  2. It’s surprising to see Democrats supporting payroll tax cuts now. In the past, they would have been concerned that it could hurt Social Security, but opinions seem to be changing.
  3. Bringing the payroll tax back to its old rates is unlikely because many people depend on it as their only federal tax. Raising it again could feel like a big burden for those who have the least.

A House Divided

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Political strategy Public Opinion Economic Policy Election Dynamics
  1. Lincoln faced a divided nation and had to adjust his views, ultimately moving towards abolishing slavery when public sentiment shifted. Obama is in a tough spot because he doesn't have a clear, unilateral action like the Emancipation Proclamation to tackle today's issues.
  2. The call for Obama to adopt more aggressive leftist policies, like higher taxes on the wealthy, might not actually resolve underlying economic problems. It's important to recognize that such actions alone won't fix the economy or reduce unemployment significantly.
  3. Moving to the left could risk alienating moderate voters and lead to more gridlock in government. Lincoln was a savvy politician who adapted to his situation, and it's unclear if moving left is the best strategy for Obama as he approaches upcoming elections.

Deficit Disorder

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 19 Aug 11
💰 Finance Economic Policy Debt Management Government spending
  1. There's a constant struggle between short-term and long-term economic needs. Short-term solutions like stimulus often overshadow long-term plans for dealing with debt.
  2. Any attempt to fix long-term debt issues will usually create short-term problems. Cutting spending or increasing taxes can make people suffer right away.
  3. Getting serious about reducing debt often happens when the economy is in a good place, but that can be the wrong time. It shows the challenges in making good political and economic decisions.

Poelittlekul EKonnome

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 08 Aug 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Market Reaction Economic Policy Public Opinion
  1. When someone says a market movement was 'obvious,' they are probably not telling the truth. People who can predict the market usually keep quiet about it and don't broadcast their insights.
  2. Most market predictions you see on TV are not very reliable. The market is pretty efficient, and the news often just reflects what is already known, not new information.
  3. Political explanations for events like market downgrades can be confusing and often contradict each other. Different sides blame each other without clear logic.

The Scandinavian Model and Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 0 implied HN points • 08 Mar 08
🌍 World Politics Economic Policy Japan Growth Strategies
  1. Japan can aim for both growth and security by adopting a model like the Scandinavian flexicurity, which combines market elements with policies promoting equality and security.
  2. Market-conforming policies that focus on security and equality can increase political tolerance for necessary 'creative destruction' to foster growth - a lesson learned by Nordic countries in the 1990s financial crisis.
  3. Countries like Sweden have seen high productivity growth while ensuring that the benefits are shared with the labor force, unlike scenarios where wage growth lags behind productivity growth.

Facts that Stun

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 21 Jun 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Economic Policy Geopolitics Cognitive Bias Historical Analysis
  1. Smart people can make big mistakes when they ignore reality, as shown in both The Best and the Brightest and The Big Short. It's dangerous to let outdated views cloud decision-making.
  2. People often avoid facts that challenge their beliefs, which can lead to poor outcomes. Instead of facing uncomfortable truths, they find ways to shield themselves from the information.
  3. Personal memories can also be unreliable, just like beliefs about politics or economics. Our past can be shaped by what we choose to remember or ignore, leading to false narratives.

Paris, may day

do clouds feel vertigo? • 0 implied HN points • 07 May 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Diplomacy Geopolitics Economic Policy
  1. It's important to look beyond simple East-West thinking in global politics. Understanding different perspectives can help us see how countries interact in more complex ways.
  2. Economic challenges like inflation are affecting families all over the world. We need to think about how these factors impact our lives and what we can do to prepare for them.
  3. Valuation can be tricky and depends on many factors, including geography and culture. It's interesting to consider how we might value things differently in various contexts.

Investor Taxes and Stock Prices: Threading the Needle!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 11 May 21
💰 Finance Taxation Investments Stock Market Economic Policy Wealth Management
  1. Investor taxes on capital gains and dividends can greatly impact their returns. If taxes increase, investors need to earn more before taxes to maintain their desired profit.
  2. Higher taxes on investors can lower stock prices. This happens because investors adjust their expectations for returns, leading to decreased overall company valuations.
  3. Changes in tax laws affect how companies manage their finances. When taxes change, businesses might choose to keep more cash rather than giving it back to investors, impacting the market.

From Shareholder wealth to Stakeholder interests: CEO Capitulation or Empty Doublespeak?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Aug 19
💼 Business Corporate Governance Economic Policy Corporate Social Responsibility
  1. The Business Roundtable announced a shift in focus from just shareholders to all stakeholders, including customers and employees. This means companies should consider the well-being of everyone involved, not just profit.
  2. Different models of how corporations operate exist, like cutthroat or crony capitalism, which prioritize profits over people. Understanding these models can help us see how corporate decisions affect society.
  3. The statement from CEOs could be seen as either a genuine change or just a way to improve their public image in response to criticism. It's important for companies to actually link good treatment of stakeholders with financial success.

Country Risk: A Mid-year 2019 Update

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 19
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Economic Policy Global Markets Political Economy
  1. When companies invest abroad, they face risks from changing currency values and unstable economies and politics. It's important to balance the potential for growth with these risks.
  2. Different countries have varying levels of risk based on their political stability, legal systems, and economic diversity. Emerging markets often have higher risks compared to developed ones.
  3. Understanding country risk is crucial for investors and businesses. It's not just about where a company is based but also where it operates and earns revenue.

January 2019 Data Update 8: Dividends and Buybacks - Fact and Fiction

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 19
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Policy Corporate Finance Data Analysis
  1. Companies are spending a lot more on stock buybacks compared to dividends. This trend has been growing since the 1980s, with more than 60% of cash returned to shareholders coming from buybacks in recent years.
  2. There's a debate about whether buybacks are good for the economy. Some say they help shareholders while others believe the money should be reinvested in businesses or used to increase wages for workers.
  3. Not all companies use buybacks in the same way. Larger, mature companies tend to buy back more stocks, but many smaller or high-growth companies are still focused on building their businesses instead.

Deja Vu In Turkey: Currency Crisis and Corporate Insanity!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 15 Aug 18
💰 Finance Currency Market Trends Economic Policy Risk management
  1. Turkey is facing a severe currency crisis, primarily due to a drop in the value of the Lira. This situation is made worse by poor business practices and lack of proper regulatory oversight.
  2. Many Turkish companies are mismatching their debts, meaning they borrow in foreign currencies while generating cash flows in the Lira. This creates a big risk for them, especially as the Lira declines.
  3. To prevent future crises, changes are needed. This includes the government not bailing out companies with mismatched debts and banks needing to be more careful about the risks they take when lending money.

January 2017 Data Update 5: A Taxing Year Ahead?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 25 Jan 17
💰 Finance Taxation Investment Corporate Finance Economic Policy Cash Flow
  1. Taxes greatly impact a business's value because they affect cash flows after taxes and the cost of capital. Companies must consider their tax burden when planning finances.
  2. The U.S. has a high marginal tax rate, and its tax policies can lead to situations like trapped cash, where companies hold large amounts of unremitted foreign income to avoid hefty taxes.
  3. Changes in tax law can create winners and losers among companies, depending on how the new regulations affect their effective tax rates and financial structures. This could shift where and how companies choose to operate.

The Trump Effect on Markets: A Financial (not a Political) Analysis!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 11 Nov 16
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Policy Risk management Financial trends
  1. Market reactions to big political events can be surprising and unpredictable. After the election, there were initial drops but then the markets bounced back, showing that how investors react can change quickly.
  2. Expert predictions are not always reliable. In this case, many experts predicted doom, but the market's actual response showed that the public often trusts their instincts over expert advice.
  3. Stories can influence outcomes more than statistics. The narratives around Brexit and the Trump election resonated with many voters, suggesting that emotional connections can sometimes matter more than hard data.

On Market Reactions to Politics

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 24 Jul 11
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Economic Policy Risk Analysis Political Economy
  1. Market prices can drop significantly during political turmoil, even if the long-term company value remains stable. It's important to spot these opportunities to invest wisely.
  2. There are two main views on raising the debt ceiling: one prioritizes immediate economic stability, the other focuses on long-term debt control. Both need serious action to back up the talk.
  3. Currently, the market shows increased volatility, meaning potential big shifts up or down. Smart investors might find good deals in stocks if there's a chance of a debt deal soon.

1200 Hours (working draft)

Logos and Liberty • 0 implied HN points • 17 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor relations Income Inequality Government programs
  1. Consider reducing work hours per year to 1200 from the standard 2000 to balance the needs of families and improve work-life balance for employees.
  2. Implementing a 1200-hour work year would lead to increased bargaining power for workers, better worker productivity, and a potential shift in how the fruits of productivity gains are shared.
  3. Employers could adapt to a 1200-hour work year by paying more, offering flexibility, hiring more workers, adjusting operations, and supporting policies to facilitate the transition.

Smug liberal lockdown supporters should be happy with their skyrocketing grocery bills

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 0 implied HN points • 25 Apr 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Societal Impact Wealth Inequality
  1. Supporters of lockdowns and money printing may face harsh reality with rising grocery bills.
  2. Outsourcing personal agency to bureaucracies and adopting slogans over dialog can lead to negative consequences.
  3. The system may be failing due to cronyism, and a return to true capitalism based on freedom might be necessary.

A Non-Partisan Review of the Upcoming (Feb. 2, 2024) Benchmark Employment Revision

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political Influence
  1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announces politically charged projections for job creation, impacting political narratives.
  2. Economic growth influences the direction of employment revisions: positive during growth and negative during slowdowns.
  3. Annual benchmark revisions under different Presidents show varied trends in estimating actual employment figures.

Political perils of economic policy

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Working Class Republican party Inflation
  1. Real wages have not risen as expected under President Biden's economic policies, leading to declining popularity among working-class Americans.
  2. Historical wage trends show a shift in the perceived economic support for working people by political parties.
  3. Democrats face challenges in translating economic gains into benefits for workers due to the primary focus on growing shareholders' equity in the modern economy.

Future prospects in a secular cycle crisis

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crisis Inflation Stock Market Economic Policy Political parties
  1. The US is experiencing a crisis similar to historical patterns of great nations, but this time, the crises may not be resolved in the same dramatic ways due to modern circumstances like interventions by economic policymakers.
  2. Civil strife in America may resemble the Troubles in Northern Ireland, but the country's size and past responses to radical movements indicate that major turmoil might not lead to political revolution.
  3. The current economic focus is on inflation, with predictions indicating that actions like interest rate adjustments could impact the economy by fall and potentially lead to a soft landing, altering the investment environment.