The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

🎯 The Ultimate Pitch Deck Collection

The VC Corner • 739 implied HN points • 31 Aug 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. A good pitch deck should include essential slides that clearly outline your business, like the problem you're solving and your market opportunity. This structure helps investors understand your idea quickly.
  2. Telling a compelling story around your startup's journey is crucial. It helps investors connect emotionally and see the value of what you're doing.
  3. Design matters a lot in a pitch deck. A clean and modern design can make your presentation look professional and helps communicate that you are serious about your business.

Dr. Tokens or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the AI Bubble

Investing 101 • 119 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Investing
  1. Mass market manias and speculative bubbles often fund the heavy infrastructure and breakthroughs we later rely on, so irrational hype can leave behind durable, world-changing assets.
  2. Bubbles create real benefits — massive infrastructure, talent concentration, rapid experimentation, and a library of failures to learn from — but they also produce serious harms like surveillance, dependency, regulatory capture, and locked‑in power structures.
  3. Because individual actors follow their incentives, the AI buildout becomes effectively inevitable and hard to stop; the sensible response is nuance—accept tradeoffs, push for responsibility and governance, and avoid both blind cheerleading and paralyzing despair.

I Don’t Know (And Neither Does Warren Buffett)

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Nobody truly knows what the market will do; even famous investors and big firms are just making educated guesses.
  2. Better investors succeed through a rigorous process — disciplined research, solid risk controls, and the honesty to admit and cut losses when they’re wrong.
  3. Accept that investing is probabilistic: don’t trust confident guarantees, do your own homework, and focus on managing downside while letting winners run.

MSTR: Converting index investing into a BTC bid

Jay’s Substack • 219 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. MicroStrategy is changing the way they invest by using Bitcoin. This shows a shift from traditional investing to a more crypto-focused strategy.
  2. The company is seeing success by integrating Bitcoin into their business model. This approach may inspire other companies to consider similar moves.
  3. The concept of turning index investing into Bitcoin bids highlights a trend in finance. It’s a sign that people are exploring innovative ways to invest.

Will the Housing Market Crash in 2026?

Progress and Poverty • 1885 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. An 18-year land-cycle theory says fixed land supply makes real estate unusually prone to recurring speculative booms and busts driven by credit, building cycles, and expectations about future resale values.
  2. The historical pattern is suggestive but weak: the data set is small, several peaks require retrofitting to fit the 18‑year story, and market timing is generally unreliable, so the model is not a strong tool for precise investment forecasts.
  3. Recent housing indicators—high price-to-rent, a large real-estate share of GDP, falling affordability, and elevated new-home inventory—match the theory’s warning signs but differences from 2008 mean a crash is uncertain; the theory nonetheless implies that land-value taxation could dampen speculation and crises often create windows for policy reform.
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The Doomsday Trade

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 255 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
💼 Business Investing
  1. A viral memo about AI, presented as a scenario rather than a prediction, still triggered a huge market selloff when investors panicked.
  2. The memo describes rapid AI adoption causing mass white-collar layoffs, collapsing consumer spending, rising unemployment, and a negative feedback loop that could devastate the economy.
  3. The episode shows markets are highly vulnerable to sentiment and viral narratives, able to wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in value in a single morning.

Join Our New Community Chat

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 219 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. A new community chat has been launched for subscribers to connect and share insights. It's a place for investors to learn from each other and discuss strategies.
  2. The chat does not change the existing newsletter; it simply adds more ways for subscribers to engage. Subscribers can participate in real-time discussions and network with others.
  3. To join the chat, users need to download the Substack app and access the chat feature. It's easy to start, and everyone is welcome to jump in.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 99 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo recently reported stable profits, showing no significant changes in the economy. This suggests that businesses remain steady despite economic shifts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has helped lift capital markets positively.
  3. The effects of monetary policy, like interest rate changes, often take time to show in the economy, explaining why things seem unchanged right now.

Entering the Bearhole

DeFi Education • 1218 implied HN points • 04 Aug 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. It's tough to decide when to take profits during a bull market because people often fear missing out on more gains.
  2. Investors might take on more risk when their long-term investments are doing well, which can lead to mistakes.
  3. Being aware of your emotions and market psychology can help you make better financial decisions.

Where to Build in Crypto

DeFi Education • 799 implied HN points • 17 Aug 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. There aren't many builders in the crypto space, making each person's contribution significant. With about 7,600 full-time developers, what you create can really shape the future of crypto.
  2. Choosing the right ecosystem is crucial for your project. Ethereum has the most liquidity for DeFi, but Solana offers advantages for certain uses, so it really depends on your goals.
  3. The competition among Layer 2 solutions on Ethereum brings both benefits and challenges. They can be fast and cheap, but also create complexity and can be centralized, affecting the overall developer experience.

An Unforced Error; Try Not to Make Em

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💼 Business Investing
  1. Don’t mix politics into your product or use customer data for political causes, because it easily alienates users and can sink a startup.
  2. Keep your ego in check; overconfidence and not listening lead to avoidable mistakes and failure.
  3. Lead by serving others: take responsibility, lift your team, pay attention to details, and learn by following before trying to lead.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 6: Amazon.com

Behavioral Value Investor • 59 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. What looked expensive by traditional valuation metrics in 2012 ended up being the cheapest thing to buy over the next decade because growth and reinvestment paid off.
  2. Amazon’s durable advantages — better price, selection, convenience, personalization, habit formation, higher inventory turnover, plus AWS — strengthened over time and drove widening economics.
  3. Those advantages translated into real results: roughly 24% sales CAGR and 32% EBIT CAGR from 2012–2022, and about 25% annual stock returns through 2026, well ahead of the S&P 500.

The Ultimate Investors List of Lists (Extended) 🚀

The VC Corner • 199 implied HN points • 13 Sep 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Finding the right investors is super important for startup success. Connecting with the right people can really help your business grow.
  2. Using curated lists of investors saves you time. Instead of searching for hours, you can quickly find potential investors interested in your startup.
  3. Having access to a variety of potential investors increases your chances of success. The more options you have, the better your chances to find the right match.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 5: Omnicare

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A niche business that is hard to replicate can attract strategic buyers and deliver large returns to shareholders when it fits a buyer's needs.
  2. In heavily regulated industries, government rules and reimbursement pressure are persistent risks that should be explicitly included in forecasts and downside scenarios.
  3. New management rarely fixes deep, long‑standing cultural or compliance problems quickly, and frequent CEO turnover is a warning sign that requires conservatism in valuation and risk assessment.

The Stock Market Has No Idea What’s Coming

The Algorithmic Bridge • 520 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Investors are simultaneously dumping SaaS stocks and AI infrastructure stocks because they fear two opposing things at once: that AI will replace software businesses and that AI spending won’t deliver returns.
  2. A recent leap in AI capabilities that lets models handle tasks like legal, finance, and marketing convinced traders that AI can move into the application layer, which sparked the selloff in software companies.
  3. The market’s mixed selling is a rational response to deep uncertainty: if AI truly upends software then heavy infrastructure buildout is justified, but if it doesn’t then that spending looks wasteful, so investors hedge by selling different parts of the ecosystem.

Top Links 1004 Hedge fund correlations. The great fashion reshuffle. Soviet rocket man and China in Myanmar.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Hedge funds are moving more in step with the stock market, which weakens their role as protection against big market crashes.
  2. The fashion industry is in the middle of a major reshuffle as brands, retailers, and supply chains reorganize in response to changing consumer habits and financial pressures.
  3. A Soviet-era ‘rocket man’ figure is linked to Chinese projects in Myanmar, illustrating how old Cold War expertise is being repurposed within modern Chinese strategic initiatives.

Exogenous Economic Shocks

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Exogenous shocks are unpredictable and can push inexperienced people into reactive, poor decisions. Experienced managers stay calm and can spot opportunities in the chaos instead of just surviving it.
  2. Maintain cash, runway, and clear math on risk/reward so you aren’t forced to sell in a panic. That optionality lets you buy bargains or double down on strong positions when markets misprice things.
  3. Back strong teams and focus on fundamentals like CAC versus LTV and runway, while asking the right questions. Steady, competent leadership and objective decision‑making help organizations steer through storms.

On shovels, Nvidia, and the AI Gold Rush

Marcus on AI • 2410 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Nvidia reported excellent earnings that briefly lifted the stock, but the opening gains evaporated and the share price was down later in the day.
  2. The market reaction was highly volatile and uncertain, and nobody knows whether the stock will head up, down, or stay sideways next.
  3. Even with strong results, lingering concerns about outlook or valuation persist, so investors remain cautious.

Artificial Intelligence and Finance

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Start small with AI projects: cheap, hands-on pilots can improve efficiency and save money while posing little risk to taxpayers.
  2. Real experience matters more than buzzwords; people who haven't worked with AI often buy useless solutions, so leaders should use knowledgeable, practical teams.
  3. AI will reshape finance by automating routine tasks and acting as a decision-support tool, freeing people to focus on higher-value work rather than magically executing better trades.

DeFi Education Q&A (July 2024 pt. 2)

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 10 Aug 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. The DeFi market is currently facing some challenges, so it's important to be cautious and reduce high-risk investments like leverage.
  2. After a market dip, there might be good buying opportunities soon after, but it's wise to approach these with a short-term mindset.
  3. Staying updated on market trends and being part of a community can help you navigate through the ups and downs of investing.

Using Options As A Value Investor: Part 1

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Options can enhance a value investor's returns when used alongside rigorous fundamental valuation and a long‑term investment process.
  2. Never assume unlimited downside risk — avoid naked calls and other strategies that expose you to unlimited losses.
  3. Know the basics: calls and puts give rights to buy or sell at a strike price, American options can be exercised anytime, options trade on exchanges, and using covered positions (like covered calls or puts) limits obligations and can lower your effective purchase price.

2026 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Mule’s Musings • 796 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. AI demand pushed bottlenecks below GPUs into memory and optics, causing HBM and DRAM shortages and sharply higher prices.
  2. Semiconductor equipment stocks rallied largely from multiple expansion and rising expectations, signaling the market expects a major WFE (wafer fab equipment) boom in 2026–27.
  3. The AI buildout is heavily levered — big borrowings, equity stakes, and circular financing are accelerating GPU and data‑center purchases but also raise credit risk if markets or demand turn.

Compound Interest and Trump Accounts

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A new tax-advantaged 'Trump Account' gives qualifying newborns a $1,000 starter deposit (file IRS Form 4547 or use the online portal) and allows up to $5,000 in annual contributions to build long-term equity exposure.
  2. The simplest, most effective strategy is to put the money in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, invest regularly via dollar-cost averaging, and let dividends reinvest and compound; for example, $1,000 plus $50/month at an 8% return for 60 years can grow to roughly $850k.
  3. Success comes from disciplined, boring saving and long-term passive investing instead of market timing, and using accessible brokers and free educational tools can help give a child a financial and academic advantage.

Country Risk: My 2024 Update

Musings on Markets • 959 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Investing in a country is riskier depending on its political structure, level of violence, corruption, and property rights. Democracies can be unstable, while autocracies might promise consistency but can change suddenly.
  2. External factors like reliance on a single commodity, economic growth stages, and climate change can increase a country's risk. Countries tied to one resource are vulnerable to market shifts.
  3. Understanding country-specific risk is important for businesses and investors. Different countries have different costs of capital due to their risk levels, impacting investment decisions.

How (And When) Gold Could Reach $10,000

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. When a dominant power’s currency loses credibility, foreign partners can stop using it and demand hard assets like gold, which can fuel domestic inflation.
  2. If foreign governments and central banks start shifting even a small slice of their dollar holdings into gold, that reallocation can push gold prices sharply higher.
  3. Analysts estimate that buying roughly 10,000 metric tons (about 10% of foreigners' dollar assets) could drive gold toward $10,000, but that would require unprecedented purchases and a major geopolitical loss of confidence.

Trump Accounts

Points And Figures • 453 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Trump accounts give eligible children a one-time $1,000 federal seed and allow additional contributions (up to $5,000 per year from family, employers, or others) that must be invested in qualifying index-tracking funds and are generally locked until the child turns 18.
  2. Small, regular contributions compounded in low-cost index funds can grow dramatically over time—for example, $5 a month could become roughly $2,900 by age 18—so parents should save what they can and reinvest dividends.
  3. With wealthy donors and employers already contributing, these accounts are being positioned as a tool for financial empowerment and opportunity, so families should consider using them to give children a stronger financial foundation rather than treating them as simple aid.

AI: Now With Less Circle And More Jerk

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A major AI data‑center expansion lost its anchor tenant after financing and changing customer needs, showing that big buildouts can stumble once the real math replaces slides.
  2. Chipmakers and hyperscalers are stepping in to protect GPU demand—Nvidia put down a large deposit and helped recruit a tenant—so suppliers may finance infrastructure to safeguard sales.
  3. That hiccup comes amid Iran tensions, private‑credit stress, and positive real rates, meaning a crack in the crowded AI capex trade could amplify market volatility.

Networked Conviction 004

Investing 101 • 83 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Investing
  1. Structure investing work around three buckets — portfolio updates, Requests For Startups, and general investing ideas — to keep thinking practical and repeatable.
  2. There’s a real opportunity to build AI rollups that actually work, but most pitches fail because they misunderstand how rollups or AI function, so a clear, correct formula is needed.
  3. The best AI rollup ideas come from real-world experience and untapped market gaps, and someone with passion plus a concrete plan can make a meaningful product out of that greenfield.

Foundations of Investing: Inflation

Behavioral Value Investor • 141 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Money can and very likely will lose some of its purchasing power over time. If you just hold cash, it will buy fewer goods and services in the future.
  2. Government actions like printing money or debasing currency have repeatedly driven inflation, and history shows this can sometimes be extreme enough to wipe out savings. Even stable countries can experience long periods of above-target inflation.
  3. Because of inflation, savers should use ways of saving or investing that at least keep up with inflation instead of leaving money idle under a mattress. Investing can help preserve and grow the real value of your savings over the long run.

2025 Annual Letter: Technology is the Cake, Geopolitics is the Icing

Interconnected • 200 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
💼 Business Investing
  1. Put technology first, then assess geopolitical tailwinds or headwinds, then evaluate the company, and only finally consider price. Geopolitics is an unavoidable layer that can make or break a tech investment.
  2. Widespread adoption of AI agents will create strong demand for deterministic guardrails like observability, data governance, DevOps, and security because probabilistic models need rules and audit trails. Agent workloads are also more heterogeneous, which could shift infrastructure demand from GPUs toward CPUs.
  3. Human surveys will likely understate agent effectiveness as people protect jobs, creating a measurement problem for adoption, and political or local backlash against AI data centers can become a bipartisan constraint. Investors should expect regulatory and supply risks and consider modest hedging and risk management.

a16z: The Power Brokers

Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 562 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💼 Business Investing
  1. a16z is built as a firm, not a traditional VC fund — it scales a huge platform of people and services (hiring, sales, marketing, policy and deep networks) to give startups power they couldn’t buy on their own.
  2. Their investment playbook is to find technical founders and category winners early, then double down — paying up and holding positions longer — to capture outsized outcomes.
  3. They’ve moved into a leadership role: shaping policy and building late-stage, public-company-like capabilities so companies can grow bigger in private, which can expand returns but also raises new risks as the firm scales.

How to Build a Data Room That Stands Out 📁

The VC Corner • 719 implied HN points • 22 Jul 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. A data room is a secure online space where startups keep important documents for investors. It shows you're organized and ready to share details about your business.
  2. Having a well-prepared data room can save time and build trust with investors. It helps them understand your company's operations and financial health better.
  3. When setting up a data room, choose good software, organize your documents, and control who can see what. This ensures sensitive information stays safe while sharing essential details.

What’s Next For DeFi

DeFi Education • 719 implied HN points • 19 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. DeFi, or decentralized finance, allows people to access financial services directly over the internet without needing banks. This is exciting because it can reduce costs and frustrations from traditional banking.
  2. Many people still view DeFi as complicated or risky due to past scams. However, there's a growing acceptance from governments and institutions that could help improve its image.
  3. The future of DeFi looks promising as big companies start to embrace its technology. It’s important for people to learn about DeFi now since it will likely become a key part of the financial system in the coming years.

The Bear Cave #307

The Bear Cave • 489 implied HN points • 04 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. New Era Energy & Digital faces a New Mexico lawsuit that could block its data-center plans, and there are allegations the company used paid stock promotion.
  2. Thirteen deep-dive investigations published in 2025 underperformed the market on average, falling about 8.5% from publication while the S&P 500 rose about 9.9%.
  3. Several CEOs and senior executives recently resigned or were terminated, and multiple companies disclosed paid stock-promotion campaigns, highlighting governance and market-risk concerns among smaller public firms.

Market Making Stuff Up

DeFi Education • 719 implied HN points • 12 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Market makers provide liquidity by buying and selling tokens, improving trading efficiency. They help reduce transaction costs for traders.
  2. Projects hire market makers for better market visibility and tighter price spreads. This makes investors feel more confident when buying tokens.
  3. Market making can be risky and not always profitable. Market makers try to manage risks while looking for ways to profit from fees or token options.

QTR & Adam Taggart: Private Credit, Valuations, Favorite Sectors

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Markets look stronger on the surface than they actually are, with QE, passive flows, and options activity propping up stretched valuations and hiding pockets of fragility.
  2. Private credit is under real stress — many funds face redemptions, gated withdrawals, and questionable marks, creating the risk of a broader credit event.
  3. A more defensive stance is sensible: favor energy, utilities, and staples while selectively pursuing opportunities in nuclear, oil & gas, cybersecurity, psychedelics, and precious metals, and be cautious about overbuilt AI/software plays.

Selling Freddie and Fannie - What's the Real Point?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 3184 implied HN points • 20 Aug 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. The Trump administration is considering selling a part of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which have been government-owned since the 2008 financial crisis. This might result in big profits for investment banks and hedge fund managers.
  2. Freddie and Fannie were once public companies but became like hedge funds over time, leading to risky investments that contributed to their downfall. The move to make them public again raises questions about whether it will end in disaster again.
  3. Selling shares in these companies could lead to higher mortgage rates for homebuyers, which would make buying a home more expensive. Concerns are being raised about whether this plan actually benefits the public.

The Bear Cave #306

The Bear Cave • 489 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. There were no new activist short reports.
  2. Several notable executives left their posts, including Coty’s CEO who received a large cash payout and stock vesting, and board/C-suite departures at ProFrac that point to management turnover.
  3. News coverage centered on legal and fraud issues—high‑profile investigations, big legal bills, and a DOJ indictment tied to a ramp‑and‑dump scheme—while market commentary and relevant tweets were also highlighted.

Private Credit Just Turned Into Public Panic

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A problem that looked like a $25 million issue rapidly blew up into a $26 billion one. That shows how fast losses can escalate.
  2. That magnitude of escalation could trigger or accelerate a panic in private credit, especially if it unfolds over a weekend when markets are thin.
  3. The episode highlights the fragility and interconnected risks in private credit, making the near-term outlook highly uncertain and worth close monitoring.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy A BioTech Ponzi Schemer & Deep State Asset?

2nd Smartest Guy in the World • 4658 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Vivek Ramaswamy made millions from biotech companies that failed, leading to accusations of running a Ponzi Scheme.
  2. Ramaswamy has been critiquing corporations engaging in what he calls 'socially conscious investing' as a threat to America's well-being.
  3. Despite accusations and controversies, Ramaswamy's net worth has been estimated to be over $950 million, raising questions about his business practices.