The hottest Federal Reserve Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy De-dollarization
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

What's So Special About the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program?

Without Warning • 235 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Federal Reserve Central Banking
  1. The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program offers unique benefits such as par valuation and no haircut for certain collateral.
  2. Mark-to-market accounting can lead to time-based losses for banks using market-based funding like the BTFP.
  3. Central bank interventions like the BTFP in crises may have implications for bank capital and risk management.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Federal Reserve Inflation Economy
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

More on the Fed and Long-Term Interest Rates

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Federal Reserve Market Analysis
  1. The Fed's impact on interest rates may not be as significant as perceived, with most rate changes occurring outside of Fed meetings.
  2. Changes in long-term interest rates are likely not correlated with new information from Fed meetings.
  3. Interest rate changes during Fed meetings appear independent of changes outside of meetings, indicating that market expectations are already adjusted before meetings.
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The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Trends
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Economy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

The Death of First Republic?

Apricitas Economics • 57 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Deposits Assets Federal Reserve Financial Institutions
  1. First Republic is facing a financial crisis and potential FDIC takeover due to significant uninsured deposit withdrawals.
  2. The bank's investments in long-duration assets like real estate loans have suffered as interest rates rose.
  3. The broader US banking system remains stressed with decreasing deposits and increased borrowing, impacted by the inverted yield curve and changing depositor dynamics.

A Historic Labor Market Recovery

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Labor Market Inflation Federal Reserve Employment
  1. American employment rates have fully recovered from the pandemic, showing a rapid and broad-based labor market recovery.
  2. The recovery is broad-based, with almost all industries and age groups showing increased employment rates.
  3. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maximizing employment for the ongoing historic labor market recovery.

Understanding the Bank Term Funding Program: A Lifeline for Failing Banks Explained in Simple Terms

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Federal Reserve Funding Financial Institutions Economy
  1. The Bank Term Funding Program helps failing banks by allowing them to borrow from Federal Reserve using securities as collateral.
  2. The program has a fixed interest rate and no fees, with credit protection from the Department of the Treasury.
  3. Federal Reserve supports banks through additional funding, monitoring financial system, and providing safety nets for stability.

A tough year

Tech and Finance by G • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Federal Reserve Government spending Recession
  1. The economy is expected to worsen by the end of the year due to various factors like inflation and limited supply.
  2. The Federal Reserve is trying to manage inflation through rate hikes, but there is concern that it may lead to a recession.
  3. There is a prediction that the government will have to print more money to manage high inflation, resulting in a difficult economic situation.

Top 5 financial posts of the trading week 7/2024

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Economy Federal Reserve Global Markets
  1. The S&P 500 closed negatively after a strong streak due to inflation data - investors await the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and S&P Global Services PMI data.
  2. Watching stock behaviors like Super Micro Computer's quick rise and subsequent 20% drop is a valuable lesson in market realities and risks.
  3. Market expectations on Fed interest rate cuts have significantly shifted due to economic data and inflation, with potential talks of future rate hikes pointing to significant market reactions.

Full Summary of Powell Testimony & Transcriptions: Fed's Pressure from Democrats and Republicans on Monetary Policy and Climate Regulations

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Democrats Republicans
  1. The Federal Reserve is facing pressure from both Democrats and Republicans on monetary policy and climate regulations.
  2. Chairman Powell testified before the Senate about the impact of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation.
  3. The Fed is working on instant payment services and discussing potential changes in capital requirements for banks.