The hottest Federal Reserve Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Is the Fed Financing the FDIC?

Without Warning • 176 implied HN points • 04 Sep 23
💰 Finance Federal Reserve Insurance Banking Liquidity
  1. The FDIC is primarily funded by banking industry fees, not congressional appropriation.
  2. During the Global Financial Crisis, the FDIC did not borrow money from the Fed but instead used clever financial maneuvers like prepayments to maintain liquidity.
  3. The FDIC may be utilizing the Fed's loans as a form of financing, with evidence suggesting that FDIC guarantees are used to back these loans, allowing for liquidity creation.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.
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Why the market has really rallied following the Fed decision?

Global Markets Investor • 79 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Markets Federal Reserve Interest Rates Economic projections Inflation
  1. The market rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve made unexpected decisions, like not pushing back against expected interest rate cuts and adjusting interest rate forecasts significantly.
  2. Investors were surprised by the Fed's dovish shift towards easing and the embrace of soft landing strategies, which resulted in market excitement and continued rallies in stocks and bonds.
  3. While the market is currently optimistic due to the Fed's stance, there are warnings about potential overbought conditions and the need to watch out for sharp corrections.

Wall Street is waking up to the inflation problem, but is it enough to turn the trend around

Ecoinometrics • 58 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation Market conditions Federal Reserve
  1. Inflation, especially from the services sector, is not returning to pre-COVID levels.
  2. Financial markets are adjusting their expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
  3. Loose financial conditions may benefit Bitcoin and risk assets, but watch for potential reversals signaling a recession or inflation issues.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Economy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

January 2024 CPI Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Inflation Federal Reserve
  1. Reaction to monthly CPI updates often fails to consider the lag affecting the shelter component, leading to surprises in news interpretation.
  2. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut were influenced by the latest report, shifting them further in the future.
  3. Monetary measures like currency in circulation and M2 trended down post-Covid scare, while the Fed's balance sheet shrinks without obvious disruption.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Federal Reserve Inflation Economy
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

More on the Fed and Long-Term Interest Rates

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Federal Reserve Market Analysis
  1. The Fed's impact on interest rates may not be as significant as perceived, with most rate changes occurring outside of Fed meetings.
  2. Changes in long-term interest rates are likely not correlated with new information from Fed meetings.
  3. Interest rate changes during Fed meetings appear independent of changes outside of meetings, indicating that market expectations are already adjusted before meetings.

$1 Trillion Per 100 Days: Is This the Year the Debt Bubble Explodes?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Government spending Federal Reserve Economic Growth National Debt
  1. The national debt is growing at an alarming rate, projected to reach $54 trillion within 10 years, with interest payments set to exceed defense spending.
  2. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is criticized for contributing to unsustainable debt, with 2020 alone seeing over $3 trillion in printing.
  3. Government spending continues to mask weaknesses in the US economy, with debt growth outpacing GDP growth for multiple quarters, driven by reckless deficit spending.

The Death of First Republic?

Apricitas Economics • 57 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Deposits Assets Federal Reserve Financial Institutions
  1. First Republic is facing a financial crisis and potential FDIC takeover due to significant uninsured deposit withdrawals.
  2. The bank's investments in long-duration assets like real estate loans have suffered as interest rates rose.
  3. The broader US banking system remains stressed with decreasing deposits and increased borrowing, impacted by the inverted yield curve and changing depositor dynamics.

A Historic Labor Market Recovery

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Labor Market Inflation Federal Reserve Employment
  1. American employment rates have fully recovered from the pandemic, showing a rapid and broad-based labor market recovery.
  2. The recovery is broad-based, with almost all industries and age groups showing increased employment rates.
  3. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maximizing employment for the ongoing historic labor market recovery.

The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Trends
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.

Should the US Congress Audit the Federal Reserve?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Federal Reserve Congress
  1. The Federal Reserve in the US is uniquely designed and operates independently, unlike other central banks worldwide, being neither part of the government's executive branch nor an independent federal agency.
  2. Calls for a full audit of the Federal Reserve have been advocated by various politicians like Ron Paul and Thomas Massie, aiming for transparency in the Fed's operations and financial decisions.
  3. Besides legislative actions, potential reforms for the Federal Reserve may involve the judiciary branch, particularly through cases that could impact the agency's independence, questioning the traditional Chevron doctrine.

Full Summary of Powell Testimony & Transcriptions: Fed's Pressure from Democrats and Republicans on Monetary Policy and Climate Regulations

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Democrats Republicans
  1. The Federal Reserve is facing pressure from both Democrats and Republicans on monetary policy and climate regulations.
  2. Chairman Powell testified before the Senate about the impact of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation.
  3. The Fed is working on instant payment services and discussing potential changes in capital requirements for banks.

Understanding the Bank Term Funding Program: A Lifeline for Failing Banks Explained in Simple Terms

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Federal Reserve Funding Financial Institutions Economy
  1. The Bank Term Funding Program helps failing banks by allowing them to borrow from Federal Reserve using securities as collateral.
  2. The program has a fixed interest rate and no fees, with credit protection from the Department of the Treasury.
  3. Federal Reserve supports banks through additional funding, monitoring financial system, and providing safety nets for stability.

Top 5 financial posts of the trading week 7/2024

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Economy Federal Reserve Global Markets
  1. The S&P 500 closed negatively after a strong streak due to inflation data - investors await the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and S&P Global Services PMI data.
  2. Watching stock behaviors like Super Micro Computer's quick rise and subsequent 20% drop is a valuable lesson in market realities and risks.
  3. Market expectations on Fed interest rate cuts have significantly shifted due to economic data and inflation, with potential talks of future rate hikes pointing to significant market reactions.

The Federal Reserve and the War on Health Freedom

Harnessing the Power of Nutrients • 0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 09
💰 Finance Federal Reserve Health Freedom Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve plays a significant role in redistributing wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich, benefiting corporations closely tied to the government.
  2. Through fractional reserve banking, the Federal Reserve creates money out of thin air, leading to inflation, which decreases the value of the dollar and disproportionately impacts the working population.
  3. The welfare state, backed by the Federal Reserve, has facilitated wars on cholesterol and health freedom, impacting public welfare under the guise of promoting it.

A tough year

Tech and Finance by G • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Federal Reserve Government spending Recession
  1. The economy is expected to worsen by the end of the year due to various factors like inflation and limited supply.
  2. The Federal Reserve is trying to manage inflation through rate hikes, but there is concern that it may lead to a recession.
  3. There is a prediction that the government will have to print more money to manage high inflation, resulting in a difficult economic situation.