The hottest Financial Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Intel Q3'2024 Financials: Hallowe'en

More Than Moore • 256 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Financial Analysis
  1. Intel's recent financial report shows a drop in revenue but highlights some solid fundamentals when looking closer. The big losses are mostly from costs tied to restructuring and asset impairment, but without those, the numbers look much better.
  2. The company is focusing heavily on improving its margins and operations with new products coming up, especially in AI and client computing. However, they face tough competition in the AI market, lagging behind companies like NVIDIA.
  3. There are expectations for recovery in margins and revenue as newer products are released in the coming years. Overall, the restructuring seems to have some positive signs, but Intel needs to effectively deliver on its promised technology advancements.

OXY's Outsider CEO, Vicki Hollub & Warren Buffett's Next AAPL (Divd Yield - ST: 6%, LT: 11.0%)

Value Investing Substack • 137 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. Warren Buffett has been acquiring Occidental Petroleum shares and the company is focused on returning shareholder capital.
  2. Occidental Petroleum is committed to limiting production growth and allocating capital towards shareholder return.
  3. Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile, and Occidental Petroleum has a high dividend yield compared to other E&P competitors.

The Best and Worst DeFi Investments of 2021

DeFi Education • 799 implied HN points • 28 Dec 21
🔮 Crypto Financial Analysis
  1. Investing in DeFi can be risky, so it's important to recognize projects that might seem profitable but could actually be scams, like Olympus DAO, which raised concerns about being a Ponzi scheme.
  2. Strong projects like Sushi and Rari had mixed results for investors. Issues within the teams or changes in market conditions can dramatically affect performance, showing the need to stay informed.
  3. Timing and strategy are key in investing. It's helpful to sell at good moments and manage how much of your portfolio is in high-risk investments to protect against big losses.

Optimism & Fear

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 117 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. There are optimists and pessimists on Wall Street, correlating to equity and bond investors.
  2. Over time, optimists have been more right than wrong, especially in holding US stocks.
  3. A perfect investment portfolio combines the fears of bond investors with the optimism of equity investors.

OnlyFans Sticky Business Model

SatPost by Trung Phan • 127 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. OnlyFans has grown rapidly, with many creators and subscribers, making billions in revenue. The platform allows creators to earn money through subscriptions and direct messaging.
  2. The business model of OnlyFans is unique. Creators can earn more by keeping subscription prices low and upselling personalized content through DMs, rather than relying mainly on subscription fees.
  3. The success of OnlyFans raises questions about the nature of online connections. While it provides income for many, it sometimes sacrifices genuine connection and quality of interaction.
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How MLB's Atlanta Braves Built A $1 Billion Real Estate Business

Huddle Up • 41 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. The Atlanta Braves have built a $1 billion real estate business around their stadium, which helps increase their revenue significantly. This model allows them to earn money from various sources, not just from tickets and sponsorships.
  2. Their mixed-use development, called The Battery, attracts millions of visitors and generates a large portion of their revenue, with many visitors spending hours there. This shows that expanding into real estate can greatly benefit sports franchises.
  3. Unlike many teams that have to share their income with the league, the Braves keep all the profits from The Battery. This gives them a unique advantage to grow financially without the usual revenue-sharing obligations.

Using Alternative Data for long-term investment debates: Tesla thought exercise

The Data Score • 79 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Alternative Data is not only valuable for short-term predictions but can also enhance long-term forecasts.
  2. Investors should approach long-term investment decisions with a Bayesian mindset, considering various data points and recalibrating views as new information emerges.
  3. Breaking down unanswerable big questions into smaller, measurable components, selecting relevant data metrics, and continuously monitoring and adjusting long-term forecasts can lead to better decision-making in investing.

How to read a stock chart

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 119 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Stock charts show how a company's stock performs over time. You can see if the price is going up, down, or staying the same.
  2. Important parts of a stock chart are the price, high/low for the day, and market cap. These help you understand how the stock is doing right now and in the past.
  3. You can set different timeframes to see how a stock has performed over days or even a year. This helps you get a better picture of its trends.

CIAM Market Size

ciamweekly • 62 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. The CIAM market is growing fast, with estimates ranging from $12.5B in 2024 to $43.6B in 2034. This shows a big interest in managing customer identities.
  2. CIAM is different from IAM, focusing on customers instead of employees. This market is not as big as data storage or CRM but has its own importance.
  3. Companies in this market can earn a lot, but revenue is unevenly spread. Some big firms like Auth0 and Ping pull in significant revenue, while smaller startups are also emerging.

Apple's M&A Strategy, Explained

SatPost by Trung Phan • 79 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. Apple's approach to mergers and acquisitions often focuses on acquiring talent rather than large companies. They prefer smaller deals to bring in experts for new technologies.
  2. Chick-fil-A has become hugely successful with only a few thousand locations by keeping their restaurant experience efficient and engaging. Their franchise model is very selective, ensuring high-quality operators.
  3. Duolingo emphasizes user engagement over strict educational methods because they know it’s crucial to keep users motivated in a competitive app landscape.

Klarna's going public, and I'm excited as hell

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. Klarna is planning to go public, which is exciting news for the fintech industry. Their recent financial improvements and a strong market for BNPL companies are driving this move.
  2. Klarna's growth has been mixed, with rapid increases followed by significant losses in previous years. However, they have managed to reduce losses and improve revenue in the last year.
  3. The current market favors companies like Klarna due to rising stock prices in the fintech sector. This suggests that investors believe there will be less strict regulations on their lending practices.

Gambling with language models

Rain Clouds • 51 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Financial Analysis
  1. Using AI models, like ModernBert, can help in predicting which stocks might perform better based on financial reports and market data. This means you can get insights without needing to be a finance expert.
  2. The project combines cloud computing with machine learning, making it easier to process large amounts of financial data quickly. This is important for anyone looking to analyze stocks more efficiently.
  3. While the model can make predictions, it's important to remember that investing in stocks always carries risks. Just because a model suggests a stock might do well, it doesn't guarantee success.

House hacking a $1.05m fourplex in Boise

The Leonard Letter • 19 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. House hacking a fourplex in Boise with renting possibilities near the university could be a smart move for your portfolio.
  2. Initial financial analysis shows a slight monthly loss, but potential to increase income by furnishing rentals and bundling utilities.
  3. Consider leveraging student housing demand and available options to generate additional income and potentially turn the property profitable.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.

3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

The media is lying about Stock Market Volatility [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 12 Aug 22
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Stock market volatility is not solely caused by 'Robinhood investors'; experts' claims are not well-supported by research and basic math
  2. While individual firms have seen increased volatility, overall market volatility has remained relatively consistent, highlighting the importance of looking beyond surface-level narratives
  3. Opportunity cost plays a significant role in firm-level volatility, with investors impacting individual stocks based on trends, emotions, and investment decisions, even if market-wide volatility does not reflect this

Golden Handcuffs[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 21 May 22
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Golden handcuffs are financial incentives designed to keep employees with a company for a specific period by offering benefits like stock options.
  2. Companies use golden handcuffs to retain good talent, align employee incentives with company success, and when cash flow is limited.
  3. Considerations when dealing with golden handcuffs include potential stock value fluctuations, public vs. private company shares, and evaluating companies for true value amidst market hype.

Data Update 5 for 2022: The Bottom Line!

Musings on Markets • 119 implied HN points • 27 Feb 22
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. Profitability is key for business success, but it's important to dig deeper than just revenue growth. Companies need to focus on actual earnings and how well they can sustain profits in the long run.
  2. Different metrics help measure a company's profitability, including gross profit and net income. Understanding these can provide insights on how companies are doing across various sectors.
  3. Growth isn't always good; it requires careful investment that might affect immediate profits. Companies need to balance reinvestment with delivering returns to their investors.

Nvidia Record High Thoughts

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Nvidia has reached a new all-time high, breaking the $150 barrier recently. This indicates the company's strong performance in early 2025.
  2. The writer remains confident in Nvidia's prospects, indicating a long-term positive view on the stock.
  3. The current stock level prompts reflections on whether to buy more, sell, or adjust their position, highlighting the decision-making process for investors.

Interviewing Company CEOs: The Must-Ask Question Checklist Every Investor Needs

Behavioral Value Investor • 126 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. Prepare questions for a CEO interview to focus on 'what' and 'how' without being accusatory.
  2. Before interviewing a CEO, decide your goals such as learning, relationship building, or understanding culture.
  3. Topics to cover during a CEO interview include strategy, customers, economics, capital allocation, company culture, and CEO motivations.

Five Alive

Net Interest • 11 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. The financial sector is changing a lot, with banks losing their traditional power to new players like private credit firms and fintechs. This shift shows how important it is to adapt to keep up with these changes.
  2. Understanding how organizational structure affects success in finance is crucial. A well-set structure can give firms a big advantage, sometimes even more than just picking the right investments.
  3. The line between public and private finance is getting blurrier. Many financial services now rely on government support, and this trend will likely grow as governments use finance to achieve their goals.

How to turn 1M$ into 3.5M$

Amaca • 79 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Over the past 10 years, Nasdaq had higher returns than top Hedge Funds.
  2. Some popular Hedge Funds like Scion Asset Management returned less than Nasdaq.
  3. It may be safer and more profitable to invest in S&P 500 or Nasdaq rather than trying to beat the market with Hedge Funds.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

Picking Stocks Is Hard

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Picking stocks is really tough because most of the returns come from a tiny number of stocks. It means many investors, even pros, often lose money.
  2. About two-thirds of stocks don't do as well as the overall market. This makes it harder for investment managers to pick winning stocks.
  3. Over 90% of active fund managers struggle to beat their benchmarks over ten years. It shows just how challenging stock picking really is.

Back to Earth or Temporary Setback? Revisiting the FANGAM Stocks

Musings on Markets • 59 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. The FANGAM stocks have been key players in the US stock market, but their recent performance has been mixed. Companies like Netflix and Facebook saw big drops, while Amazon and Google surprised with strong results.
  2. Valuations of these companies suggest that Facebook is the most undervalued, as it struggles with its story and user numbers. In contrast, Netflix appears overvalued as it grapples with slowing growth and high content costs.
  3. Companies like Microsoft and Apple managed to stay out of controversies and continued to grow. Microsoft's recent acquisition of Activision shows its ambition, while Apple is benefiting from being seen as a privacy protector.

AI Eats Equity Research

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. AI tools like OpenAI's Deep Research can now quickly gather and analyze financial information, making research much faster than before. This is changing how equity analysts do their jobs.
  2. Instead of relying on research assistants, analysts can use AI to find critical insights in real-time during meetings. This allows them to ask smarter questions based on the latest data.
  3. As AI technology improves, it could take over more of the research tasks that analysts do. This raises questions about the future roles of these analysts in the finance industry.

Clouded Judgement 5.16.25 - Net New ARR Trends

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 16 May 25
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Net new ARR, which shows the growth in quarterly revenue from cloud software companies, has decreased in the latest reports. This is concerning since a drop can suggest financial struggles.
  2. Valuation for SaaS companies is often based on revenue multiples, giving a quick way to compare their worth. The current median multiple is 5.5x, but top companies can reach much higher valuations.
  3. Companies with higher growth rates tend to have larger valuation multiples. It's essential for investors to watch these trends to better understand the market landscape.

Quant Letter: May 2025, Week-4

The Parlour • 4 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. Using machine learning can help build models to categorize investors based on their behavior. This method faces challenges in being validated and understood.
  2. Research is exploring how to optimize portfolios over a longer time frame. This could help in making better financial decisions.
  3. Synthetic data created by agent-based models can provide valuable insights for testing and understanding trading strategies.

Vroom Goes Bust: A Cautionary Tale in the Fast Lane of Online Used-Car Sales

Gad’s Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. Vroom, a once promising player in online used-car sales, faced financial struggles and announced ceasing e-commerce operations.
  2. Comparison between Carvana and Vroom reveals operational challenges like inventory turnover, highlighting Vroom's decline in efficiency.
  3. Online used-car platforms face hurdles like high inventory costs, aging inventory, and challenges in digital transformation.

Clouded Judgement 12.27.24 - 2024 Year End Review

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Financial Analysis
  1. In 2024, the median multiple for cloud software stocks was 6.1x, showing stability throughout the year. This means that software companies were valued similarly at the beginning and end of the year.
  2. Only a few companies had impressive growth, with just 3 companies increasing over 100% in stock price. Most companies had mild performance, with half going up and half going down.
  3. Key companies like Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, and Datadog consistently ranked in the top ten for valuation multiples. This shows their strong market position over the past few years.

#164 – Normal-ish

Below the Line from Kevin LaBuz • 5 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. E-commerce is stabilizing after the pandemic, but shoppers are being more careful with their spending. People are focusing on buying essentials instead of luxury items.
  2. Big companies like Amazon are growing well because they sell a lot of everyday items. Smaller companies are struggling to compete as customers are prioritizing good prices and value.
  3. As the market normalizes, companies are working on improving their core businesses and cutting costs. Some, like Etsy, are trying new strategies to attract customers in a tough economic environment.