The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

It’s Fed Day; who cares?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. A Fed rate decision may have limited impact right now because the chair is a lame duck and shifting US policy (like tariffs) makes the inflation outlook uncertain.
  2. When policy uncertainty is high, companies generally revise their inflation expectations faster and more strongly in response to rate hikes or cuts.
  3. Firms and traders who closely follow central-bank signals tend to anticipate moves and therefore adjust their inflation expectations far less, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

Erb and Harvey are at it again

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Gold has had a huge rally, rising more than 50% in about ten months and breaching record highs around $4,000/oz, which has reignited investor enthusiasm and big price forecasts.
  2. Academic analysis says gold has not been a reliable inflation hedge over typical investment horizons and that high current prices tend to predict poor future real returns, so lofty prices imply limited expected gains.
  3. The rise of gold ETFs created a steady, structural demand that lifted prices, and the only realistic way to trigger much more demand would be a regulatory change letting commercial banks hold gold as reserves — something that looks unlikely.
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Accidentally testing NGDP level targeting

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Accidentally testing market monetarism, particularly nominal GDP targeting, yielded successful results during economic shocks.
  2. Nominal GDP targeting can help stabilize the business cycle by allowing for counter-cyclical inflation and smoothing disruptions in nominal incomes.
  3. Adopting nominal GDP level targeting could lead to improved productivity and reduced reliance on interest rates in monetary policy discussions.

Lessons for today’s investors from the UK in the 1970s

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Cost-push shocks like big commodity price jumps can become long-lasting inflation when governments boost wages and spending while central banks keep rates too low.
  2. Large fiscal deficits or tax cuts can create a short-term growth 'sugar rush' but risk reigniting inflation later if monetary policy is pressured to stay easy.
  3. Fiscal and monetary coordination is crucial: when fiscal policy is expansionary the central bank must act to anchor inflation expectations or inflation will remain elevated.

Solid Start

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Consumer spending remains resilient in 2024.
  2. The economy has seen moderated growth from peak levels.
  3. Inflation persists despite the solid start in the economy.

December 2024 Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

Investing Update: Is The Rally Fading?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Dow has dropped for seven straight days, which is the longest losing streak since 2020. This downward trend is concerning, especially for December, which is usually a strong month for stocks.
  2. Inflation is still on the rise, moving from 2.60% to 2.75%. Although this is in line with expectations, it indicates that the economy hasn't fully stabilized yet.
  3. Many believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% soon. This move is anticipated as a way to address the ongoing inflation issues and support the market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently about 2% lower than their peak in 2022. This means people may find better deals on homes than before.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is down by 9.3% since the peak in 2022. It suggests that renting may be more cost-effective compared to buying right now.
  3. Historically, house prices tend to increase over time, but real prices being above past bubbles shows that it's still a complicated market for buyers.

Feelin’ Fine

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 20 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The economy seems fine despite initial concerns of it being worse.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and capital markets are beginning to overlook inflation.
  3. There are doubts about the Fed tightening aggressively without causing a recession, but signs are not showing any current recession threats.

MMTers Love When Governments Burn Money

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Historically, some governments have burned money they received in taxes instead of spending it. This shows a different approach to managing currency and taxes.
  2. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) suggests that the way governments handle money matters differently than traditional views, claiming that taxes serve to create demand for fiat currencies.
  3. However, there are criticisms of MMT, particularly regarding its historical accuracy about how money is created and the role of taxes, suggesting that it may misinterpret past events.

Let’s Dance

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Signs of deflation in the economy are emerging.
  2. Companies are slowing down price increases and labor markets are loosening.
  3. Consumer spending remains strong with notable growth in January.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.

The Real-World Ravages Of Inflation

Behavioral Value Investor • 111 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation can erode purchasing power over time, leading to financial strain for workers like teachers.
  2. Budget constraints due to inflation can create challenges for both employees and employers in reaching fair agreements.
  3. Understanding historical trends can help predict future economic outcomes and guide investment decisions.

November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.

Why Price Stability Is A Dangerous Illusion

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Many economists believe that keeping prices stable is really important for a healthy economy. They think it helps businesses understand consumer needs better and allocate resources effectively.
  2. However, the idea that money is neutral and only affects price levels can be misleading. When money supply changes, it can cause unfair advantages for some people over others, which leads to wealth redistribution.
  3. Overall, the belief in price stability might hide the real impacts of inflation. Just because prices seem stable doesn’t mean that the economy is healthy; it may actually create problems down the line.

Investing Update: A Bull Market Scare?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The stock market can be very unpredictable, like a roller coaster with ups and downs. It's important to be ready for sudden changes in the market.
  2. Recently, there was a big drop in the S&P 500, which showed that many stocks were losing value. It's a reminder that market conditions can shift quickly.
  3. Despite the rough week, there were also signs of recovery, with some stocks doing better. This shows that after tough times, markets can bounce back.

The CBO Isn’t Allowed To Forecast An Inflationary Debt Crisis

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) doesn't predict a debt crisis due to its guidelines, but that doesn't mean debt isn't a problem. Just because they aren't seeing a future inflation issue doesn't guarantee everything will be fine.
  2. Economic theories vary widely, and the CBO avoids making bold predictions that could be seen as fearmongering. They focus on neutral assessments rather than trying to forecast potential crises.
  3. Recent history shows that both the CBO and some economists missed significant inflation signals, suggesting that current forecasts about long-term economic stability may not be very reliable.

November 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Data shows that rent inflation has decreased to about 2%, hitting the Fed's 2% inflation target.
  2. There is a hope for rents to gradually decrease towards a reasonable level as construction capacity increases in 2024 and beyond.
  3. Housing prices are settling in a low single-digit trend, making the housing market stable for now.

The Potemkin Economy

The Dollar Endgame • 6 HN points • 23 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Economic data may not reflect the true situation: Reports of a strong economy may be misleading, with statistics like job numbers potentially manipulated to present a facade of growth.
  2. There are concerns about the accuracy of government statistics: Issues like overestimating job growth and manipulating unemployment rates raise questions about the reliability of official data.
  3. The changing nature of employment is worrisome: The shift towards part-time work, decline in full-time jobs, and decreasing workforce participation rates indicate underlying problems in the job market.

The Other Lever

The Last Bear Standing • 97 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Understanding balance sheet policy is crucial in modern monetary policy.
  2. Recent balance sheet movements have had a direct influence on money supply.
  3. Significant shifts in the balance sheet policy can impact inflation and banking sector stability.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

Hitting Pause

The Last Bear Standing • 152 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate hikes soon, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
  2. Inflation has been influenced by significant increases in money supply during the pandemic, impacting consumer behavior and economic growth.
  3. Financial stability is a top concern for the Fed, potentially outweighing traditional inflation targets and leading to a pause in rate hikes.

Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: A Warning to Trump

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Biden's spending policies are causing high inflation and soaring public debt. This is leading to economic instability and a potential recession.
  2. Job growth is largely coming from government positions, while the private sector struggles to grow. This could harm the overall economy in the long run.
  3. Cutting government spending may hurt the economy temporarily, but supporting the private sector and reducing inflation could lead to a more stable future for American citizens.

Heat Check

The Last Bear Standing • 81 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The market has been experiencing significant growth, especially in sectors like Artificial Intelligence and biotech, leading to exponential value increases in certain stocks.
  2. Despite positive economic indicators and accommodative policies, there are some cautionary signals like delays in rate cuts and unexpected inflation data that may impact the stock market.
  3. Investors should remain aware and prepared for the potential scenarios of inflation re-acceleration and its impact on the market.

The Fed Has Stopped Pretending that Price Inflation Is Going Away

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, claiming confidence in lower inflation, but that confidence seems to have faded. The Fed is now uncertain about its inflation goals.
  2. Inflation remains high, especially for everyday necessities like food and housing, causing consumers to struggle with rising costs. Recent data shows that inflation is not improving as expected.
  3. Instead of lowering interest rates, which may not help ordinary people, the Fed should step back and allow the market to adjust naturally. This could help stabilize the economy and provide better opportunities for regular investors.

Energy Security Concerns Driving Low Carbon Investments

Helix • 19 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The war in Ukraine has highlighted global energy security risks and increased focus on low carbon investments.
  2. Low carbon investments and M&A activities are rising due to the geopolitical shifts caused by the war
  3. The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 promotes green investment and aims to reduce emissions, jobs creation, and economic growth.