The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Grading the Trade

The Last Bear Standing • 101 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.

Is the US economy heading for a soft landing? Part 2/2

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economy Market Analysis Recession Inflation Labor Market
  1. The US economy shows signs of avoiding a recession through strong GDP growth, tracked through economic nowcasts.
  2. Retail sales and inflation rates support a soft landing scenario, with consistent growth and falling inflation.
  3. The labor market strength, with healthy wage growth and low unemployment rates, indicates resilience in the US economy.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.
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The Catalyst That Could 'Standardize' Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Financial Crisis Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated through a major financial crisis where people seek an exit ramp from the traditional financial system.
  2. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin allows for success to be tied to its growth, empowering individuals who are tired of traditional financial institutions.
  3. Bitcoin offers a chance for the public to break the cycle of bearing the cost of financial failures by opting out of the current system and embracing digital freedom.

Macro America Great Again

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 8 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics Presidential elections Inflation
  1. Tariffs are taxes on imports that can increase prices for consumers. When companies bring products from abroad, they pay these taxes when the goods arrive in the country.
  2. The concept of comparative advantage suggests that countries should specialize in what they do best. This means countries can save money and resources by trading instead of trying to produce everything themselves.
  3. Using tariffs can lead to higher prices and less efficiency in production. This approach can disrupt supply chains and hurt the overall economy, making things more expensive for everyone.

The Potemkin Economy

The Dollar Endgame • 6 HN points • 23 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Employment Manipulation Unemployment Inflation
  1. Economic data may not reflect the true situation: Reports of a strong economy may be misleading, with statistics like job numbers potentially manipulated to present a facade of growth.
  2. There are concerns about the accuracy of government statistics: Issues like overestimating job growth and manipulating unemployment rates raise questions about the reliability of official data.
  3. The changing nature of employment is worrisome: The shift towards part-time work, decline in full-time jobs, and decreasing workforce participation rates indicate underlying problems in the job market.

Did the Fed engineer a soft landing?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Inflation Wealth Distribution
  1. The Fed helped lower inflation significantly, reducing core inflation by about two percentage points. However, most of the drop in inflation came from factors outside the Fed's control, like global demand changes.
  2. High-income households have played a big role in keeping the US economy strong during tough times. Their spending helped prevent a recession, even as lower-income groups struggled more.
  3. While the Fed's actions can be seen as positive for the economy, they also disproportionately benefited the wealthy. This raises questions about how well the overall economy truly supports everyone.

Headless Market Chickens, Cluckin' Like Crazy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economy Policy Inflation
  1. NPCs in video games are characters controlled by programming and lack independent thought, and this concept is applied to describe certain individuals in real life scenarios.
  2. Passive stock market investors are compared to headless chickens mindlessly moving around, fueled by 'animal spirits' that keep the market going up.
  3. The stock market is considered overpriced, with potential risks of massive deleveraging, deflationary depression, and negative effects of a nation monetizing its own debt.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Affordability Indexes Housing
  1. Real house prices in the US are currently 2.4% below the recent peak, indicating a slight decline in prices adjusted for inflation.
  2. It's important to consider the price-to-rent ratio to understand the affordability of housing markets.
  3. National house prices are historically high after being 10.2% above the bubble peak level, despite the market's ups and downs over 17 years.

Energy Security Concerns Driving Low Carbon Investments

Helix • 19 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investments Energy Climate Inflation Global Markets
  1. The war in Ukraine has highlighted global energy security risks and increased focus on low carbon investments.
  2. Low carbon investments and M&A activities are rising due to the geopolitical shifts caused by the war
  3. The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 promotes green investment and aims to reduce emissions, jobs creation, and economic growth.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Rental market Inflation Earnings
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.

Clouded Judgement 1.10.25 - Rising Rates

Clouded Judgement • 4 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Growth Interest Rates Inflation Investment Trends Market Analysis
  1. The 10-year Treasury yield is rising even as the Fed cuts rates. This is mainly due to people's expectations of ongoing inflation.
  2. Strong economic growth is encouraging investors to seek riskier assets, which pushes bond yields higher. With low unemployment and good consumer sentiment, the economy looks solid.
  3. Tariffs on imports are increasing costs for businesses, which leads to higher prices for consumers. This adds to inflation worries and drives investors to demand higher bond yields.

Calculating inflation with ChatGPT

The End(s) of Argument • 19 implied HN points • 20 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Inflation ChatGPT Information Retrieval
  1. Using Google search for calculating inflation can provide a cite-worthy and reproducible response in under a minute, making it superior to using ChatGPT for such tasks.
  2. Google search process requires less navigation knowledge, provides up-to-date information, and typically avoids providing initially incorrect answers, unlike ChatGPT.
  3. The process of search, like Google, offers an evaluable explanation of knowledge since it can lead to citing reliable sources, while ChatGPT offers disconnected simulations of traditional knowledge-building processes.

How long? How variable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economic Growth Interest Rates Consumer spending
  1. The effects of interest rate hikes from the Fed can take a long time to show in the economy, often around 40 months. This means changes don’t happen immediately after decisions are made.
  2. Different types of goods react to rate hikes differently. For example, inflation for durable goods can keep rising right after a hike, while nondurable goods start to decrease right away.
  3. Today’s economy is more service-oriented than it was decades ago, making it harder to control inflation. This shift means that the impact of monetary policy is felt later and inflation management becomes more complex.

A Historic Labor Market Recovery

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Labor Market Inflation Federal Reserve Employment
  1. American employment rates have fully recovered from the pandemic, showing a rapid and broad-based labor market recovery.
  2. The recovery is broad-based, with almost all industries and age groups showing increased employment rates.
  3. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maximizing employment for the ongoing historic labor market recovery.

The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Trends
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.

Fire and Ice

The Transcript • 39 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics Markets Inflation Financial system
  1. The Fed is facing the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting the financial system.
  2. The impact of recent events on Silicon Valley Bank is causing uncertainty in the markets.
  3. Consumer spending remains steady amidst the uncertainties in the financial sector.

$10 Trillion Stolen Right Under Our Noses

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Government spending Inflation Wealth Distribution Financial impact
  1. Over $10 trillion was recklessly spent on Covid relief, making people significantly poorer.
  2. The government's panicked spending went unnoticed by many due to the distribution method of electronic funds and stimulus checks.
  3. Inflation devalued household savings, widening the wealth gap and creating social stratification.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

Core Inflation is (Finally) Cooling

Apricitas Economics • 46 implied HN points • 13 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Monetary Policy
  1. Core inflation is cooling, signaling a potential slowdown in inflationary pressure.
  2. Data shows a decline in core services inflation and rent prices, indicating progress in curbing inflation.
  3. Businesses and markets expect inflation to remain above 2% in the near future, but long-run inflation expectations are stable.

Cascading Collapse: Navigating the Tumultuous Future of Global Economy and Energy

Anima Mundi • 20 implied HN points • 11 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economy Cryptocurrency Energy Trade Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing challenges due to a disconnect between production and mounting debt.
  2. Focusing on green energy alone may not solve the economic crisis caused by resource scarcity.
  3. Potential scenarios after a financial crash include the possibility of relying on Bitcoin, challenges in returning to the gold standard, and the slow burn decline of the global economy.

Everyone is Frolicking But Me

Kyla’s Newsletter • 36 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Policy Market
  1. Feeling uncertain about the economy can lead to a sense of badness even when things are okay-ish.
  2. Loss aversion bias makes people focus more on potential losses rather than potential gains.
  3. Uncertainty, social media influence, and loud voices can amplify fear and uncertainty, contributing to a sense of badness.