The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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US Federal Reserve says its goal is 'to get wages down'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 279 implied HN points • 24 May 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The US Federal Reserve chairman aims to bring down wages as a solution to high inflation, believing that workers have too much power in the labor market.
  2. Inflation is outpacing US wages, with the federal minimum wage remaining at $7.25 since 2009, showing that real wages have not kept up with rising prices.
  3. Economist Michael Hudson argues that inflation is primarily driven by corporate monopolies increasing prices, not by rising wages as claimed by the Federal Reserve.

Is Yen’s Decline Over?

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 29 Jul 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Traders in currency and bond markets lost big on bets about the weakening yen and rising US interest rates, impacting the yen's value.
  2. The US Federal Reserve's quick actions against inflation caused a change in interest rate outlook, leading to a significant drop in US treasury bond rates.
  3. Market sentiment shifted due to the revised expectations of lower interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve, impacting traders' future predictions.

The price of health insurance has increased 24% over the last year

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 299 implied HN points • 04 Oct 22
🏥 Health Politics Inflation
  1. Health insurance prices went up by 24% over the last year, which is a much bigger increase than most other expenses like food or gas.
  2. While the cost of medical services only rose by around 5.6%, health insurance continues to climb, indicating issues with insurers' pricing.
  3. Deductibles and out-of-pocket costs have also significantly increased, and future premium hikes are expected, putting more financial pressure on families.

Is Japan’s Inflation As High As It Seems?

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 24 Jun 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Japan's inflation rate may not be as high as it seems, with different measures showing varying results.
  2. Central banks like the Bank of Japan use 'core' inflation rates that exclude volatile items to gauge long-term trends.
  3. The challenge for Japan's economy is to achieve healthy inflation driven by domestic demand rather than by high import prices.
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Credit Card Data Spells Trouble

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 04 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is causing consumers to shift spending towards necessary goods and services like food and healthcare.
  2. Americans are turning to credit cards to bridge the gap between rising prices and stagnant wages.
  3. High collective credit card debt and increasing delinquency rates could pose a significant threat to the overall economy.

Rent inflation since Covid

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Rent prices have risen significantly since Covid, especially in areas with low housing supply. This has caused many families to struggle with housing costs.
  2. After a temporary shift in housing demand during the pandemic, some families moved away from expensive urban areas. However, this has led to rising rents in previously cheaper neighborhoods.
  3. Currently, rent inflation seems to be moderating, which is good news for families. If housing construction continues to grow, it could help families afford better living situations.

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side

Risk Musings • 401 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The US economy faces challenges like high interest rates, commercial real estate vacancies, inflation, and climate change.
  2. Despite challenges, positive factors like AI, consumer demand, residential real estate, and labor strength are helping the economy remain resilient.
  3. The tug-of-war between downside risks and bright side factors will determine the economic outcome in the short, medium, and long terms.

CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

Get Ready For Big, Beautiful Inflation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The expansion of the money supply leads to inflation, which makes it harder for regular people to save money and keep their purchasing power.
  2. Government spending that exceeds its income creates a cycle of borrowing and inflation, which ultimately hurts everyday Americans.
  3. Investing in gold and other real assets can be a good idea since they can protect against inflation and the devaluation of currency.

The Great Financial Tightening

Concoda • 443 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The recent market euphoria has set the stage for increased intervention by monetary leaders.
  2. Short squeezes and market dynamics fueled a rapid stock market rally, creating a false appearance of euphoria.
  3. The Great Financial Tightening is expected to bring an end to the latest liquidity surge and reintroduce volatility into markets.

The Financial System is in a Death Spiral

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 59 implied HN points • 09 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The financial system is facing a crisis with inflation rates far exceeding official figures, leading to a significant decrease in purchasing power for individuals.
  2. Central banks are struggling to control inflation through traditional methods like interest rate hikes due to the risk of causing economic turmoil and further financial instability.
  3. There are no easy solutions to the current financial crisis - whether governments keep printing money or raise interest rates, both options have significant downsides that can lead to widespread poverty.

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

"A Year of Moderation" Begins for the Construction Sector

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 21 May 23
💼 Business Inflation
  1. Home Depot reported a 4.2% decline in sales for Q1 2023, marking the start of a period of moderation in the construction sector.
  2. Lower home construction numbers are impacting sales of materials like lumber and affecting big-ticket item purchases.
  3. Factors like higher interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty are contributing to the slowdown in the construction market.

Deflation Nation?

Diane Francis • 339 implied HN points • 13 Dec 21
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation worries are often exaggerated due to flawed measurements like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). People react strongly to these numbers, but they might not tell the full story.
  2. The reported inflation rate in America is at a high of 6.8%, causing a lot of concern and discussion. It's important to look at the bigger picture and the methods used to calculate this figure.
  3. Traditional metrics may not accurately represent the current economic situation. Understanding the limits of these measurements can help in better navigating economic discussions.

Price Theory and the Price Level

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Measuring the price level requires price theory because common price indexes are just approximate constructs and can systematically mis-measure the theoretical concept.
  2. The correct price-level measure is the money cost of a constant-utility bundle, so weights should adjust as consumers substitute and as future/asset prices matter; fixed-weight indexes and the exclusion of asset prices produce substitution bias and other errors.
  3. Those measurement flaws make it harder to test theories of price-level determination and can mislead policymakers, causing noisy empirical results and potential policy mistakes.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

¥/$ May Be Heading to ¥125

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 24 Mar 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The yen may be heading towards ¥125, which would be its weakest level in 20 years, mainly due to factors like interest rate gaps between US and Japan.
  2. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions are contributing to yen weakening, despite historical perceptions of yen as a safe-haven currency during crises.
  3. Japan's shift from trade surpluses to deficits impacts its currency, and a weak yen may no longer be seen as entirely beneficial, especially if oil prices keep rising.

We've Already Defaulted

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Government spending is increasing rapidly, and there's a constant cycle of debt without real change. Politicians often promise to cut deficits but end up spending more.
  2. People are finally understanding inflation as they feel its impact at grocery stores. This awareness is prompting more conversations about money and economic policies.
  3. The bond market is crucial to watch for signs of financial health. It's important to pay attention to its trends instead of just focusing on stocks.

Concerns Brewing?

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

Strong and Vibrant

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The economy is described as strong and vibrant.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and inflation has decreased.
  3. Bank of America's Brian Moynihan is optimistic about the Federal Reserve.

The Fear Over Tariffs

Spilled Coffee • 60 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Tariffs can cause prices to rise for consumers, leading to inflation. This means things might get more expensive for everyone.
  2. The ongoing tariffs can create uncertainty in the stock market and economy. Businesses are worried about how these changes could impact their profits.
  3. Monitoring tariffs is important for investors and business owners. They need to stay updated because tariffs affect many products and can cause market fluctuations.

The Fed Pours Jet Fuel On The Inequality Gap

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The monetary system is broken and helps wealthy people while hurting regular workers. It's designed to benefit the rich rather than the working class.
  2. Rising costs and stagnant wages are making it hard for people to trust capitalism. When central banks interfere too much, it creates problems like inflation and high prices.
  3. An interview with economist Steve Hanke explains how the Federal Reserve is making inequality worse. He believes both past and current leaders deserve criticism for their economic policies.

Does A Weak Yen Really Help Japan?

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. A weak yen has atrophied Japan's economic muscles as it relies on it like a crutch, impacting household income and overall economic growth negatively.
  2. Japan's export-driven growth fueled by a weak yen contrasts with Korea's growth driven by innovative products and efficiency improvements, leading to a significant difference in economic performance.
  3. The weak yen raises import prices and benefits big companies over consumers, showing how it indirectly transfers income and highlights the impact on inflation and household spending.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.

The Opinion Of Sheep

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 16 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The US economy seemed fine for a while, but suddenly there was a big drop in consumer spending and job market stats. This showed that things can change quickly in economic situations.
  2. Argentina's economy has had ups and downs recently, with stable inflation dropping from earlier highs, but political transitions and financial mismanagement may put future progress at risk.
  3. Changes in monetary policies can lead to unpredictable economic outcomes, especially if the government isn't careful about managing money supply and interest rates.

June 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Core inflation has stayed close to the Fed's 2% target for 36 months, showing stability even as jobs have held steady.
  2. Currently, home prices are much higher than normal due to supply issues, with the average home significantly overpriced in major metro areas.
  3. Access to credit is also a big problem, lowering home prices but complicating the supply situation, making it hard for buyers.

Path-Breaking Research Explains the Low U.S. Consumer Gallup Poll Readings

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Consumers in the U.S. are feeling pessimistic despite strong economic indicators like GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and declining Misery Index, mainly due to concerns about inflation viewed as a severe economic hardship.
  2. Recent data suggests that Americans usually lag in incorporating the effects of inflation, with sentiment influenced by inflation readings observed 6 to 12 months prior, leading to a risk-averse approach among consumers.
  3. Consumer dissatisfaction might also stem from the rising prices of dining out compared to cooking at home, affecting restaurant spending and consumer sentiment.

The Start of Inflation As We Know It

Informer • 39 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
💾 History Inflation
  1. In the 1930s, Keynes developed a new theory of inflation linked to the proletariat's impact on history.
  2. Economic laws are foundational and apply universally, impacting real-world situations.
  3. Changes in wage dynamics, influenced by trade unions and economic factors, played a key role in reshaping inflation patterns.

Only Bitcoin and Gold Can Stop Governments from Destroying the Currency

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Government spending is out of control, and politicians prefer to keep it high rather than balance the budget. This leads to inflation and dependence on government aid.
  2. Central banks are not controlling spending anymore, which lets governments accumulate more debt. This could cause economic problems in the future.
  3. Bitcoin and gold are becoming alternatives to traditional money, pushing back against government spending and inflation. They remind people that money can't be printed endlessly without consequences.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.