The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Will Kuroda Blink This Week?

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 14 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Bank of Japan is facing pressure to raise interest rates as the market challenges its efforts to keep rates down.
  2. Despite spending 5% of GDP on purchasing government bonds, the BOJ's attempts to control rates have not been successful.
  3. The future moves of the Bank of Japan will likely affect the yen's value, impacting inflation, trade competitiveness, and overall economic well-being of Japan.

The Fed & the Central Banking Order of Operations

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Central banks follow a specific order of operations during financial crises, involving rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency liquidity facilities.
  2. Dallas Fed President raised the idea of separating asset runoff from rate adjustments, suggesting that the balance sheet and rate policy can be independent during market instability.
  3. Fed officials are discussing the possibility of actively growing the balance sheet during monetary tightening, signaling a potential shift from the traditional central banking order of operations.

Top Links 592 The upside of inflation. Warhammer and the British economy & the Cesarean boom.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation can have positive effects on the economy. It's important to understand how it can sometimes benefit different sectors.
  2. The Warhammer gaming franchise is linked to the British economy in interesting ways. It shows how cultural phenomena can impact financial trends.
  3. There has been a rise in the rate of Cesarean births, often referred to as a boom. This trend raises questions about healthcare practices and preferences.
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The Transcript Q4 2022 Letter

The Transcript • 399 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The economy is showing strong consumer spending and high inflation, causing uncertainty in monetary policy decisions.
  2. Financial stress alongside economic strength is creating a challenge for the Fed as they monitor inflation and labor market data.
  3. The S&P 500 index earnings are down and the market is at high valuations in comparison to historic norms, presenting a need for price adjustments for balance.

CPI 3.1%

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.

The Social Costs Of Inflation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation affects family life in negative ways. It makes everything more expensive and changes how people make decisions about marriage and having kids.
  2. Working-class families suffer the most from inflation. They find it harder to keep up with rising costs, which makes it tough for them to form and maintain stable families.
  3. A return to sound money could help solve these problems. Fixing the financial system can improve family stability and rebuild society's foundations.

Time to Revisit: How Does This Assessment Look Fourteen Months Later?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. There are two main views on inflation: 'Team Transitory' believes inflation will go away, while 'Team Persistent' thinks it will stick around. The debate is important to understand how to deal with the economy's ups and downs.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions, like raising interest rates quickly, play a big role in managing inflation. If the Fed hadn't acted as strongly, inflation expectations could have gone out of control.
  3. Past economic cycles were shaped by different factors, like wars and technological changes. Understanding these historical trends can help us navigate today's economy better.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

Increases in the Money Supply, Not Corporate Profits, Drive Price Increases

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Rising prices are primarily driven by increases in the money supply rather than businesses simply trying to boost profits. Consumers ultimately decide if they accept the prices set by suppliers.
  2. Price controls may seem like a solution to high prices, but they can lead to shortages and hurt the production process. This could lower the living standards of the people they aim to help.
  3. Inflation comes from central banks increasing the money supply, making it so there is more money chasing the same amount of goods, leading to price increases.

Weird Markets = Warning Sign

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 157 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Take a step back and gain perspective by reading old writings and revisiting past events.
  2. Weird market behaviors like falling bond yields during interest rate hikes and unconnected tech and bank stock movements can be warning signs.
  3. Investors are struggling to price assets amidst inflation, banking crisis, growth slowdown, global conflicts, and AI innovation.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part I

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 06 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Different countries are experiencing different types of inflation, each requiring unique solutions. Japan faces a dilemma with its low headline inflation and core inflation dominated by food and energy.
  2. Central bankers focus on core inflation for long-term trends while considering demand-pull and cost-push sources of inflation. Japan's inflation is mainly driven by cost-push forces, unlike the US and Europe where demand-pull forces are stronger.
  3. Dealing with cost-push inflation is more complex as it involves supply chain disruptions and input price spikes. Timing the response to inflation and adjusting interest rates involves balancing economic growth and avoiding recession.

The Market Vs. The Bank of Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Market pressure forced the Bank of Japan to increase the maximum rate of 10-year Japan Government Bonds
  2. BOJ Governor Kuroda believes the rate hike was a technical measure, not a start of tightening monetary policy
  3. The outcome will be shaped by factors like BOJ's bond purchases, impact of interest rate rises on businesses, value of the yen, and course of inflation

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets • 679 implied HN points • 11 May 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation has become a major issue for the economy, causing instability in markets with unpredictable effects on stock prices. Understanding inflation's impact is important for making investment decisions.
  2. As inflation rises, interest rates also climb, leading to increased borrowing costs and affecting how risky investments are perceived. This creates uncertainty for investors about how to respond.
  3. There are different potential outcomes for the economy based on inflation trends, ranging from a quick stabilization to severe recession risks. Investors need to adapt their strategies depending on which scenario seems more likely.

Value Denomination and Stablecoins

DeFi Weekly • 137 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Stablecoins are fragile and rely heavily on banking partners.
  2. The US is growing hostile towards crypto, affecting banks dealing with it.
  3. In a future of multiple currencies, valuable assets like crypto may offer wealth protection.

A Tale of Two Currencies

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Inflation
  1. Argentina has a history of economic turmoil with multiple currency crises and hyperinflations.
  2. The government deficit in Argentina has grown significantly since 2011, leading to economic challenges.
  3. Potential solutions for Argentina's economic crisis include complete dollarization, adopting a Bitcoin standard, or exploring joint currencies with other countries like China.

Dialing Back Restraint

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates may have reached their highest point in this tightening cycle and could start decreasing later this year.
  2. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates too soon and wants to see sustained progress in managing inflation before making any major moves.
  3. Despite some challenges with inflation, the overall economy, especially the job market, remains strong.

The Fed’s FAFO Moment Is Here

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. People are now more aware of the Fed's actions and how they affect the economy. Thanks to memes and social media, understanding monetary policy has become easier for everyone.
  2. The Federal Reserve's credibility is fading as more people realize its reliance on low interest rates and money printing. This could lead to major shifts in how money is viewed and used.
  3. With growing knowledge, many are opting for alternatives like Bitcoin over traditional fiat currency. This trend indicates a potential crisis for the Fed if they can't regain public trust.

Disinflation vs Deflation Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 159 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Disinflation means prices are still going up, but not as fast as before. It's a slowdown in inflation, which can be seen as a good sign for the economy.
  2. Deflation is when prices actually fall, which can seem good for prices but often leads to negative effects like less spending and economic slowdown.
  3. A balanced approach is crucial. Some inflation is often healthy for the economy because it encourages people to spend and invest, avoiding the risks linked to both disinflation and deflation.

Is Japan’s Inflation Really At a 40-Year High?

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 21 Nov 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Japan's inflation trend is not accurately represented by the headline figure of a 40-year high, considering the measure used is specific and not reflective of overall inflation.
  2. Year-to-year comparisons of inflation can be misleading, especially for products with price volatility, potentially skewing the true underlying trend.
  3. The causes and implications of inflation must be carefully analyzed to determine the appropriate monetary policy response, balancing economic growth with the impact of higher interest rates.

Why the market has really rallied following the Fed decision?

Global Markets Investor • 79 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The market rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve made unexpected decisions, like not pushing back against expected interest rate cuts and adjusting interest rate forecasts significantly.
  2. Investors were surprised by the Fed's dovish shift towards easing and the embrace of soft landing strategies, which resulted in market excitement and continued rallies in stocks and bonds.
  3. While the market is currently optimistic due to the Fed's stance, there are warnings about potential overbought conditions and the need to watch out for sharp corrections.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part II

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 08 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Bank of Japan faces a dilemma with interest rates and the yen due to the growing gap between Japan and other countries' interest rates.
  2. Japan's weak domestic demand and a very weak yen are impacting consumer spending and business investment negatively.
  3. There is uncertainty around whether speculators will force the Bank of Japan to raise 10-year bond rates above 0.25% in response to the weak yen.

Audio Debate On Japan’s Inflation, Interest Rates, and Low Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 07 Nov 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Central banks no longer target money supply because the relationship between money growth and inflation became unstable due to changes in financial markets.
  2. In Japan, weak demand for goods and services, not poor monetary policy, has kept interest rates near zero for over a quarter century.
  3. Low aggregate demand in Japan is driven by falling household incomes, lack of competitiveness, and companies hesitating to expand due to weak capacity utilization.

May 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker & Inflation Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation has been steady at around 2% for three years, but the housing market shows some delays in reflecting this change. This means that while prices overall are stable, housing costs might still be catching up.
  2. The shelter component of inflation is lagging behind, which can impact people's housing decisions. It's important to keep an eye on how these housing prices evolve over time.
  3. Tracking housing prices and inflation together is crucial for understanding the market. Knowing how they influence each other can help you make better financial decisions.

In 2021, Larry Summers Won the Inflation Debate. Now His Victory Is Looking a Little Transitory.

Informer • 98 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
💼 Business Inflation
  1. Larry Summers' victory in the inflation debate of 2021-22 is now appearing transitory as inflation rates have steadily decreased without a spike in unemployment.
  2. Wages play a crucial role in determining inflation levels, with high wage inflation being a reliable predictor of high price inflation.
  3. Keynes and his collaborators emphasized the importance of rising money wages as the essence of inflation, diverging from the Quantity Theory of Money.

The Forgotten Case Against Milton Friedman

Informer • 98 implied HN points • 14 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Milton Friedman's ideas changed economics by challenging the Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
  2. James Tobin provided an alternative theory of inflation focusing on demand shifts between sectors.
  3. Progressives didn't fully embrace Tobin's theory, leading to disagreements on tackling inflation and interest rates.

What the hell is happening? July 2023

Philoinvestor • 98 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, so be cautious of nominal vs real rates.
  2. The Fed's rate hike strategy lowered inflation, but current economic conditions are not benign.
  3. China is focusing on sustainable growth and market reforms, rather than massive stimulus measures.