The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

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CK Hutchison update (1 HK)

Asian Century Stocks • 353 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Earnings Inflation
  1. CK Hutchison is facing inflation pressures due to weak Euro, high inflation, and high-interest rates.
  2. The company is transitioning towards becoming more asset-light through selling assets and share buybacks to increase return on equity.
  3. Potential factors affecting CK Hutchison's future performance include interest payment repricing, margin rebounds, and growth in the retail segment.

Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: A Warning to Trump

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Government Public Policy Inflation Debt
  1. Biden's spending policies are causing high inflation and soaring public debt. This is leading to economic instability and a potential recession.
  2. Job growth is largely coming from government positions, while the private sector struggles to grow. This could harm the overall economy in the long run.
  3. Cutting government spending may hurt the economy temporarily, but supporting the private sector and reducing inflation could lead to a more stable future for American citizens.

The War on the Middle Class

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 158 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation Middle class
  1. The middle class is facing challenges like wage stagnation and inflation, impacting their standard of living.
  2. Everyday costs like groceries are significantly increasing, impacting individuals' budgets.
  3. Luxury experiences such as stays at high-end hotels are becoming more expensive and less accessible, signaling a broader trend of economic strain on the middle class.

There Are Three Ways to Get Rid of Inflation. One Is "Impossible" and One Will Destroy the Country.

Surviving Tomorrow • 314 implied HN points • 18 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Taxation Wealth Distribution Monetary Policy Economic Theory
  1. Inflation impacts different groups differently: savers punished, poor robbed, debtors rewarded.
  2. Eradicating inflation can be done by destroying the working class, taxing the rich, or creating anti-inflation money.
  3. Anti-inflation money involves investing in new assets, taxing back excessive money, and destroying it for common well-being.
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What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy De-dollarization
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

The McDonald's theory of why everyone thinks the economy sucks

Silver Bulletin • 438 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Inflation Marketing Delivery Services
  1. Americans are spending more money overall, not just paying higher prices due to inflation.
  2. Fast food chains are using strategies like price increases, marketing, and delivery to make customers spend more.
  3. Consumer spending is increasing faster than inflation, impacting people's perceptions about the economy.

Wage Hikes in April Fail Their First Test

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Inflation Consumption
  1. Wage hikes in April in Japan fell short of expectations, rising only by 1% instead of the predicted 2%, indicating a potential setback for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
  2. Real wages in Japan have been dropping for years, not just a temporary post-Covid issue, leading to reduced consumer spending and overall economic impact.
  3. The slow wage growth in Japan has implications on inflation rates, with the Bank of Japan waiting for a 3% nominal wage hike to consider monetary policy changes.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Financial Systems Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

Did the debt ceiling deal really save the US from bankruptcy?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 259 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Banking Economy Reserves
  1. The US's debt situation is a small part of the global debt puzzle, with rising interest rates creating challenges not only for the US but also for poorer countries dependent on dollar debt.
  2. The debt deal exacerbates the unproductive nature of debt as it has been used to replace income for individuals and constrain companies from expansion and investment in productive capacity.
  3. The financial system will face challenges including declining value of US treasuries impacting banking system resilience, inflation persisting, and US dollar losing hegemony due to rising debt and market liquidity issues.

Reading the Mind of BOJ Chief Ueda

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 22 May 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Wages GDP
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is determined to maintain current policies and resist pressure to raise interest rates, emphasizing the importance of waiting for sustained 2% inflation before making any changes.
  2. Japan's inflation is mainly cost-push due to external factors like energy and food prices influenced by global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with wage hikes seen as essential for achieving the desired price and wage growth balance.
  3. A key aspect for Japan's economic recovery and future inflation rate is the slow GDP growth, indicating that the economy is operating below capacity, which poses challenges for potential consumer inflation.

No bubble, no trouble...

Japan Optimist • 235 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Policy Inflation Central Bank
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is focused on ensuring economic growth and controlling inflation.
  2. In Japan, politicians are addressing rising energy costs and affordability concerns, not the central bank.
  3. Japanese elite closely monitor real estate prices to prevent asset bubbles and ensure future generations' prospects.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 4th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Economic Indicators Interest Rates Market Trends Inflation
  1. This week has a packed economic calendar with important earnings reports coming from big companies like New York Times and Qualcomm.
  2. The U.S. elections are on Tuesday, which could distract from other economic updates but are still very important.
  3. Thursday is crucial as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates, along with jobless claims data and several company earnings.

NUMERI ASTRONOMICI

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Debt Inflation Government
  1. Debt levels in America are rapidly increasing, with the first trillion taking 185 years and next trillion completed in just 6 months.
  2. Inflation can silently grow over time, culminating in a sudden and severe loss when it's too late, as seen in the case of Zimbabwe.
  3. The USA is dealing with unbelievably large numbers, including trillions and quadrillions, due to factors like derivatives.

Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update

Musings on Markets • 699 implied HN points • 27 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Investment Market Trends Economic Impact
  1. Inflation has returned strongly in 2022 after a long period of stability. Many businesses and investors were caught off guard as they hadn't adjusted their strategies for high inflation.
  2. Rising inflation is leading to higher interest rates, which can impact the economy and market investments. This has caused a shift in investor behavior, making them more cautious.
  3. Higher inflation also makes the future of economic growth uncertain. Investors are nervous, and their outlook on the economy has worsened, affecting their investment decisions.

Will Kuroda Blink This Week?

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 14 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Currency Exchange Market Analysis
  1. The Bank of Japan is facing pressure to raise interest rates as the market challenges its efforts to keep rates down.
  2. Despite spending 5% of GDP on purchasing government bonds, the BOJ's attempts to control rates have not been successful.
  3. The future moves of the Bank of Japan will likely affect the yen's value, impacting inflation, trade competitiveness, and overall economic well-being of Japan.

The Fed & the Central Banking Order of Operations

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Central Banking Monetary Policy Inflation Communication
  1. Central banks follow a specific order of operations during financial crises, involving rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency liquidity facilities.
  2. Dallas Fed President raised the idea of separating asset runoff from rate adjustments, suggesting that the balance sheet and rate policy can be independent during market instability.
  3. Fed officials are discussing the possibility of actively growing the balance sheet during monetary tightening, signaling a potential shift from the traditional central banking order of operations.

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side

Risk Musings • 401 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy Real Estate Inflation Insurance Climate change
  1. The US economy faces challenges like high interest rates, commercial real estate vacancies, inflation, and climate change.
  2. Despite challenges, positive factors like AI, consumer demand, residential real estate, and labor strength are helping the economy remain resilient.
  3. The tug-of-war between downside risks and bright side factors will determine the economic outcome in the short, medium, and long terms.

Is Inflation In 2024 Fueled By Supply Or Demand?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Economics Monetary Policy Supply Chain
  1. Inflation in 2024 could be caused by supply issues, like hurricanes and strikes, which disrupt the availability of goods and services.
  2. Much of the high inflation seen after the pandemic was actually driven by demand rather than just supply problems.
  3. As supply conditions improve, inflation rates might decrease, but currently, tighter monetary policy and slowed spending suggest that inflation could remain high.

The Transcript Q4 2022 Letter

The Transcript • 399 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Market Analysis
  1. The economy is showing strong consumer spending and high inflation, causing uncertainty in monetary policy decisions.
  2. Financial stress alongside economic strength is creating a challenge for the Fed as they monitor inflation and labor market data.
  3. The S&P 500 index earnings are down and the market is at high valuations in comparison to historic norms, presenting a need for price adjustments for balance.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Consumer spending Inflation
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

Weird Markets = Warning Sign

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 157 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economy Central Bank Inflation
  1. Take a step back and gain perspective by reading old writings and revisiting past events.
  2. Weird market behaviors like falling bond yields during interest rate hikes and unconnected tech and bank stock movements can be warning signs.
  3. Investors are struggling to price assets amidst inflation, banking crisis, growth slowdown, global conflicts, and AI innovation.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part I

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 06 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Central Banks Global Economy
  1. Different countries are experiencing different types of inflation, each requiring unique solutions. Japan faces a dilemma with its low headline inflation and core inflation dominated by food and energy.
  2. Central bankers focus on core inflation for long-term trends while considering demand-pull and cost-push sources of inflation. Japan's inflation is mainly driven by cost-push forces, unlike the US and Europe where demand-pull forces are stronger.
  3. Dealing with cost-push inflation is more complex as it involves supply chain disruptions and input price spikes. Timing the response to inflation and adjusting interest rates involves balancing economic growth and avoiding recession.

The Market Vs. The Bank of Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
💰 Finance Market Interest Rates Inflation Financial Markets
  1. Market pressure forced the Bank of Japan to increase the maximum rate of 10-year Japan Government Bonds
  2. BOJ Governor Kuroda believes the rate hike was a technical measure, not a start of tightening monetary policy
  3. The outcome will be shaped by factors like BOJ's bond purchases, impact of interest rate rises on businesses, value of the yen, and course of inflation

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Central Banks Inflation Technology Companies Geopolitical
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets • 679 implied HN points • 11 May 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Investment Economics Market Trends
  1. Inflation has become a major issue for the economy, causing instability in markets with unpredictable effects on stock prices. Understanding inflation's impact is important for making investment decisions.
  2. As inflation rises, interest rates also climb, leading to increased borrowing costs and affecting how risky investments are perceived. This creates uncertainty for investors about how to respond.
  3. There are different potential outcomes for the economy based on inflation trends, ranging from a quick stabilization to severe recession risks. Investors need to adapt their strategies depending on which scenario seems more likely.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.

Investing Update: Signs Of A Market Top?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Inflation Stock Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 reached its 51st all-time high this year, showing strong market performance. However, it ended the week lower, with declines seen across major stock indices.
  2. Inflation is stabilizing, with recent data showing it remains under control. Wage gains have also outpaced inflation for the past 18 months, which is good news for consumers.
  3. Post-election market surges are common, and this trend has continued in 2024. Historically, stock markets tend to do well under a unified government, which seems to be the case now.

A Tale of Two Currencies

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Currency Inflation Monetary Policy Central Bank Financial Crisis
  1. Argentina has a history of economic turmoil with multiple currency crises and hyperinflations.
  2. The government deficit in Argentina has grown significantly since 2011, leading to economic challenges.
  3. Potential solutions for Argentina's economic crisis include complete dollarization, adopting a Bitcoin standard, or exploring joint currencies with other countries like China.