The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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How Much Change When BOJ Eventually Tweaks? Part 1

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Interest rate changes depend on both BOJ policy and financial market conditions, and a policy tweak is likely to result in a gradual, minor impact on rates.
  2. BOJ's intention appears to be maintaining accommodative financial conditions by making small adjustments to policies like the overnight rate and yield curve control.
  3. BOJ's decision-making process is influenced by the balance of risks in moving too early or too late, with a focus on clear evidence of sustained wage growth before significant policy changes.

New Bitcoin ETFs, old coins

Ecoinometrics • 196 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. New Bitcoin ETFs have captured a small percentage of the total supply of Bitcoin.
  2. Increased retail sales in December signal economic growth but also potential challenges for inflation.
  3. Top companies like Apple and Microsoft show there can be sustained growth at the top, with new catalysts like Bitcoin ETFs.

The Beveridge curve and cultural evolution

America in Crisis • 99 implied HN points • 16 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Beveridge curves show the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, highlighting changes in the labor market over time.
  2. Economic policies, such as tax laws and deficit spending, can impact factors like wages and inflation, influencing the overall economic environment.
  3. Cultural evolution in business practices is influenced by economic conditions and government policies, shaping the economy and labor market dynamics.

¥144 Is Weakest Since Last November

Japan Economy Watch • 359 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The weakening of the yen is closely tied to the gap between Japanese and American 10-year government bond rates, with a 97% correlation.
  2. Investors are learning to trust the statements of central banks like the BOJ and US Fed more, impacting market behavior and currency values.
  3. The chronic weakness of the yen reflects Japan's loss of competitiveness, leading to a trade deficit, higher consumer prices, and lower real wages.

Developing a New (Alan) Taylorism for the Remainder of the 21st Century

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 31 May 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. We need to learn from past economic crises so we can prepare for future shocks. They often have long-lasting effects on our economy, making recovery much harder.
  2. Controlling inflation is key for political stability. When inflation is low and stable, people trust their leaders and feel secure about the economy.
  3. Even with challenges, like low interest rates, we have a great chance for investment in things like infrastructure and education. We should take advantage of these conditions to grow.
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CK Hutchison update (1 HK)

Asian Century Stocks • 353 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. CK Hutchison is facing inflation pressures due to weak Euro, high inflation, and high-interest rates.
  2. The company is transitioning towards becoming more asset-light through selling assets and share buybacks to increase return on equity.
  3. Potential factors affecting CK Hutchison's future performance include interest payment repricing, margin rebounds, and growth in the retail segment.

Cutting Interest Rates Isn’t a Cure‑All for the Economy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Cutting interest rates only creates a temporary boom with fake job gains and malinvestment that leads to a deeper bust later.
  2. A real recovery needs market‑driven interest rates, sound money, and fiscal restraint so savings and investment can realign properly.
  3. Labor-market problems are worsened by wage rigidities and regulations, so letting wages adjust and removing hiring barriers helps jobs recover.

Top Links 634 Amerikanizm, tariffs and inflation. The UK's productivity stagnation, & the war-risk business.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Amerikanizm can have impacts on tariffs and inflation. This means policies can affect prices and trade in significant ways.
  2. The UK's productivity is not improving much, which suggests challenges in its economy. This stagnation can lead to slower growth and less innovation.
  3. There are increasing risks related to war for businesses. Companies might face uncertainties that could influence their operations and profits.

The War on the Middle Class

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 158 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The middle class is facing challenges like wage stagnation and inflation, impacting their standard of living.
  2. Everyday costs like groceries are significantly increasing, impacting individuals' budgets.
  3. Luxury experiences such as stays at high-end hotels are becoming more expensive and less accessible, signaling a broader trend of economic strain on the middle class.

Inflation And The Moral Erosion of Society

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 46 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is often misunderstood as just rising prices, but it's really about the government increasing money supply. This change in meaning makes it hard for people to see who is really responsible for the problem.
  2. When money loses value due to inflation, it affects people's lives deeply. It rewards borrowing and spending over saving, changing how society thinks about money and effort.
  3. To fix the issues caused by inflation, we need to go back to honest money that retains its value. Sound money can help society reconnect with hard work and planning for the future.

There Are Three Ways to Get Rid of Inflation. One Is "Impossible" and One Will Destroy the Country.

Surviving Tomorrow • 314 implied HN points • 18 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation impacts different groups differently: savers punished, poor robbed, debtors rewarded.
  2. Eradicating inflation can be done by destroying the working class, taxing the rich, or creating anti-inflation money.
  3. Anti-inflation money involves investing in new assets, taxing back excessive money, and destroying it for common well-being.

Ecoinometrics - Is the Fed doing a soft pivot?

Ecoinometrics • 314 implied HN points • 24 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is trending down, which may lead to a soft pivot by the Federal Reserve.
  2. The base effect impacts inflation calculation, showing a downtrend in core inflation.
  3. Following trends is crucial, but be cautious about liquidity risks, especially as a recession may be looming.

Fischer Black vs. Monetarism

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Fischer Black believed that both money supply and price levels are based on collective beliefs rather than strict numbers. People accept money because they trust others will accept it too.
  2. Inflation and prices are influenced more by market behavior and expectations rather than solely by money supply. This means prices can change based on what people think will happen in the future.
  3. The relationship between money and prices might be less reliable than before. As people use less cash and more digital forms of payment, traditional ways to predict inflation might not work well anymore.

What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

Top Links 568 Stock markets in the 2nd Trump Presidency. How emering markets emerged. Indian food inflation & the global wine glut.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Stock markets might struggle to reach new highs during Trump's second term compared to his first term.
  2. Emerging markets have become more prominent in the global economy, showing their growth potential.
  3. Food inflation in India and oversupply in the wine market are significant trends affecting consumers today.

The Continental Bait-and-Switch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Continentals were accepted at first because people believed they could be redeemed for gold or silver, so the paper acted like a claim to real money.
  2. But leaders kept printing Continentals, broke the redemption promise, and used price controls and legal tender laws to force acceptance, which caused severe inflation and effectively cheated people in a bait-and-switch.
  3. This episode shows paper money’s value often rests on expectations of specie redemption, not just on taxes or legal coercion, so a government declaration alone may not create lasting monetary value.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted national house prices are about 2.7% below their recent 2022 peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 is roughly 3.0% below.
  2. Nominal house prices are very close to record highs—about 0.3% under the February 2025 peak—and in real terms national prices remain about 9.7% above the 2006 bubble peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.9% from its 2022 peak, and rising inventory plus higher inflation have pressured real prices, which fell roughly 2% in 2025.

Daily Chartbook #262

Daily Chartbook • 1598 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. China real estate market poses risks globally, but international policy response is expected
  2. Default rates are rising slowly over the past 12 months
  3. Large-scale M&A deals above $10 billion have increased in the second quarter

Wage Hikes in April Fail Their First Test

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Wage hikes in April in Japan fell short of expectations, rising only by 1% instead of the predicted 2%, indicating a potential setback for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
  2. Real wages in Japan have been dropping for years, not just a temporary post-Covid issue, leading to reduced consumer spending and overall economic impact.
  3. The slow wage growth in Japan has implications on inflation rates, with the Bank of Japan waiting for a 3% nominal wage hike to consider monetary policy changes.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

Paying more for less

Known Unknowns • 275 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Inflation is making everything more expensive and reducing purchasing power.
  2. The shift from shareholder primacy to stakeholder capitalism has made everything more political and divisive.
  3. State and local finances are facing serious challenges that impact daily lives more than national debt-ceiling debates.

Daily Chartbook #252

Daily Chartbook • 1545 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The median home sale price increased by 3.2% from a year earlier, reaching $380,250.
  2. Monthly mortgage payments for the typical U.S. homebuyer increased by 19% to $2,605 compared to a year earlier.
  3. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to -0.90 in July from -1.14 in June.

The Return Of Quantitative Easing

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is restarting quantitative easing to keep reserves ample and preserve policy flexibility.
  2. Huge Treasury deficits and political pressure have pushed up demand for reserves, so the Fed is buying assets to ease policy without formally cutting the federal funds rate.
  3. Restarting QE will help lower government borrowing costs and reduce the Fed’s interest bill, but it risks higher inflation and may look like capitulation to political pressure.

Daily Chartbook #259

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Weakest Links are increasing due to higher costs of capital.
  2. No more interest rate hikes expected due to slowing core inflation.
  3. Inflation has shown soft patches in the past but usually leads to sharp accelerations.

Did the debt ceiling deal really save the US from bankruptcy?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 259 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The US's debt situation is a small part of the global debt puzzle, with rising interest rates creating challenges not only for the US but also for poorer countries dependent on dollar debt.
  2. The debt deal exacerbates the unproductive nature of debt as it has been used to replace income for individuals and constrain companies from expansion and investment in productive capacity.
  3. The financial system will face challenges including declining value of US treasuries impacting banking system resilience, inflation persisting, and US dollar losing hegemony due to rising debt and market liquidity issues.

Longer, Higher For Longer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Interest rates are the core price that coordinates savings and investment, and heavy central-bank intervention has turned them into an administered price that can obscure real market signals.
  2. After a forty-year decline, long-term rates may be shifting higher because of large government debt, weaker anti-inflation norms, and adverse demographics — implying bonds could be "longer, higher for longer."
  3. If long rates stay higher, long-term bonds and real stock returns will likely suffer while commodities (especially gold) may outperform; keeping a very low fixed-rate mortgage and favoring companies with easy access to commodities could make sense.

Reading the Mind of BOJ Chief Ueda

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 22 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is determined to maintain current policies and resist pressure to raise interest rates, emphasizing the importance of waiting for sustained 2% inflation before making any changes.
  2. Japan's inflation is mainly cost-push due to external factors like energy and food prices influenced by global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with wage hikes seen as essential for achieving the desired price and wage growth balance.
  3. A key aspect for Japan's economic recovery and future inflation rate is the slow GDP growth, indicating that the economy is operating below capacity, which poses challenges for potential consumer inflation.

Links to Consider, 11/14/2024

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Social issues are becoming more relaxed, and many activities that were once illegal are now accepted. This change shows a shift in American values, as old social norms are less effective.
  2. The recent elections showed that voters are focused on inflation, which influenced their choices. Many people felt dissatisfied with the Democratic candidates, especially Kamala Harris, leading to a shift towards Republicans.
  3. Traditional media like TV is losing younger audiences, while platforms like podcasts and social media are gaining popularity. This shift reflects a changing media landscape where people seek different ways to get their news.

No bubble, no trouble...

Japan Optimist • 235 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is focused on ensuring economic growth and controlling inflation.
  2. In Japan, politicians are addressing rising energy costs and affordability concerns, not the central bank.
  3. Japanese elite closely monitor real estate prices to prevent asset bubbles and ensure future generations' prospects.

November 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Multiple inflation measures — shelter CPI (which is lagged), Zillow’s rent estimate, core CPI, goods, and services — are all converging toward about 2%.
  2. Rent inflation functions largely as a transfer rather than a production cost, so it probably shouldn’t drive monetary policy and could be excluded from policy price indexes.
  3. With shelter removed, inflation sits near 2%, but tariffs have pushed goods prices up, suggesting the true neutral target may be a bit higher and there’s room for slightly more stimulative policy.

Five Decades Of Currency Rot: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Currency debasement is a long-running, multi-decade trend that accelerated after currencies were decoupled from gold, and it has generally boosted asset prices and favored people who own assets over those who rely mainly on labor.
  2. The real pain for savers comes from interest-adjusted debasement — when money supply grows faster than bond yields, bondholders lose purchasing power, as seen in the big debasement spikes around 2020–21.
  3. The era of steadily falling long-term interest rates is likely over, so debasement may continue but with a weaker tailwind for valuations; bonds may still lose value in real terms but not as rapidly, and investors should expect different relative performance across stocks, gold, crypto, and housing.

NUMERI ASTRONOMICI

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Debt levels in America are rapidly increasing, with the first trillion taking 185 years and next trillion completed in just 6 months.
  2. Inflation can silently grow over time, culminating in a sudden and severe loss when it's too late, as seen in the case of Zimbabwe.
  3. The USA is dealing with unbelievably large numbers, including trillions and quadrillions, due to factors like derivatives.

Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update

Musings on Markets • 699 implied HN points • 27 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation has returned strongly in 2022 after a long period of stability. Many businesses and investors were caught off guard as they hadn't adjusted their strategies for high inflation.
  2. Rising inflation is leading to higher interest rates, which can impact the economy and market investments. This has caused a shift in investor behavior, making them more cautious.
  3. Higher inflation also makes the future of economic growth uncertain. Investors are nervous, and their outlook on the economy has worsened, affecting their investment decisions.