The hottest Economic Analysis Substack posts right now

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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The report looks at various local housing markets across the US for January. It compares this year's data with data from January 2019.
  2. The analysis includes information about active listings, new listings, and closed sales in these markets.
  3. The newsletter encourages readers to subscribe for more detailed insights and data on the housing markets.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The housing market shows an increase in home inventory, but sales are not growing much compared to last year. This can put pressure on home prices.
  2. House prices have recently increased year-over-year, but there is a decrease month-over-month for the first time since early 2023.
  3. There are different trends in housing across regions, which means some areas may experience changes in market conditions differently than others.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. A move was made in the portfolio that is worth sharing. It's an important update that could impact future decisions.
  2. The information shared in this post is exclusive to paid subscribers, so it's intended for those who support the content.
  3. Engaging with updates like this can help subscribers stay informed about new developments in the portfolio.

Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

The American Secular Cycles

America in Crisis • 39 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Analysis
  1. America's history follows cyclical patterns of expansion, stagnation, crisis, and resolution, influenced by population growth, economic inequality, and elite competition.
  2. Secular cycles have been identified in American history from 1780 to 1930 and a current ongoing cycle since 1930, driven by demographic mechanisms and economic inequality.
  3. The resolution of past cycles involved significant events like the Civil War and the Great Depression, with policy responses playing a crucial role in resolving economic and political crises.
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Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

Trump v Powell: The Credibility Cost of Politicized Monetary Policy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 12 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Trump wants lower interest rates, but if the Fed lowers them while inflation is still high, it could lead to bigger problems like stagflation. This may feel good short-term but is risky long-term.
  2. Political pressure on the Fed can hurt its independence and credibility. If the public thinks the Fed is making decisions based on politics, it could lead to higher inflation expectations.
  3. Comparing US interest rates with other countries without considering their unique situations is misleading. Monetary policy should be based on domestic economic conditions, not just foreign examples.

Investing Is Like Riding A Roller Coaster

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Investing can be unpredictable, much like a roller coaster ride. You have to be prepared for ups and downs in the market.
  2. Recent years have felt calm for investors, similar to a lazy river ride, but things can change unexpectedly in the future.
  3. No one really knows what will happen in the market next, so it's important to stay cautious and ready for surprises.

Come Hell Or Hyperinflation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market currently seems to be very overvalued, which is raising concerns about its stability. Investors might want to be cautious as prices continue to rise unexpectedly.
  2. As we approach 2025, it's important for investors to reflect on their strategies and consider potential future risks. Making informed decisions now could be crucial.
  3. The ongoing growth in the market may lead to a situation where investors aren't truly aware of the risks involved. It's a good time to question whether the current trends are sustainable.

Let's talk about Tesla

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💼 Business Economic Analysis
  1. Tesla's recent earnings report led to a big jump in their stock price, showing strong investor confidence.
  2. The company added over $100 billion to its market value, which shows just how much investors believe in Tesla's growth.
  3. Understanding why Tesla is thriving right now can help people see what makes companies successful in the EV market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

January 2024 CPI Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Reaction to monthly CPI updates often fails to consider the lag affecting the shelter component, leading to surprises in news interpretation.
  2. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut were influenced by the latest report, shifting them further in the future.
  3. Monetary measures like currency in circulation and M2 trended down post-Covid scare, while the Fed's balance sheet shrinks without obvious disruption.

Stocks I'm Watching As The Market Sells Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market has recently seen a drop, and many analysts still insist it's always a good time to buy, regardless of prices. This seems unrealistic, especially when many factors suggest selling might be a better option.
  2. Big companies like Apple and Amazon significantly influence the stock market, while retail investors are often trading options instead of actual stocks. This creates a speculative environment where many aren't looking for real value.
  3. Despite market challenges, there are still opportunities to find valuable investments that aren't being highlighted in mainstream financial media. It's important to look for these hidden gems amid all the noise.

Illumina Revenue Down

ASeq Newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Illumina's revenue is down by 3% in Q2, which follows a similar trend from Q1. This shows they are struggling to sell their instruments.
  2. Despite the drop in instrument sales, they have seen a slight increase in revenue from consumables, meaning customers are still buying other products.
  3. The decline in instrument sales might be due to uncertainty in the market, causing customers to hold off on new purchases.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The author is identifying stocks to watch for 2025 based on market trends. This can help investors focus on specific opportunities in the stock market.
  2. In the past year, the stocks chosen performed well but not as well as the overall market, particularly the biggest tech companies.
  3. This post offers insights for paid subscribers, suggesting it provides detailed analysis and guidance for making investment decisions.

All These Things That I Have Longed

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Markets are changing rapidly, and many people seem confused about their movements. This uncertainty can affect how prices are set.
  2. Information processing is key to trading today. Knowing how to filter through news and social media can give a trader an advantage.
  3. There is a growing concern that technology might soon outpace human intuition in trading. If everyone relies on AI, we might lose our ability to think critically about market dynamics.

Are Real Wages Rising?

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 11 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Average wage growth has outpaced inflation since the pandemic.
  2. Lower-wage workers have seen proportionally larger wage gains.
  3. Real wage growth depends on the strength of the labor market and can be impacted by inflation and distribution.

It's Always Darkest Before Dawn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The Fed can't stop a bear market from happening when stock prices are extremely high. This means that even with their efforts, a market drop could still occur.
  2. Sometimes it's not worth trying to understand why a strategy failed. It's better to acknowledge it and move on rather than clinging to a losing bet.
  3. Hedge fund managers often write letters during tough times, but many don't take responsibility for their mistakes. It's refreshing when someone admits to being wrong without making excuses.

Catch Me If You Can

Net Interest • 15 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The US stock market has significantly outperformed Europe over the last 15 years, with US stocks providing much higher returns compared to European stocks.
  2. European companies lag behind in major tech innovation, lacking equivalents to successful US companies like Amazon and Google, which has contributed to their slower growth.
  3. Recently, there has been a shift in sentiment among investors towards Europe, with increased interest and consolidation in the asset management industry, indicating potential for future growth.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

China's Premier just consulted these economists. What's their view on the economy?

Pekingnology • 67 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Analysis
  1. Economists discussed the challenges in China's economy and emphasized the need for strong fiscal and monetary policies with institutional reforms.
  2. There is a call for active participation in global digital economic and trade agreements, establishment of open capital markets, and alignment with international provisions.
  3. Encouraging innovation in the financial market requires a tolerant approach to failure, role of long-term institutional investors, less frequent information disclosure, open capital markets, and stable macro policy orientation.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

America's Weakening Labor Market

Apricitas Economics • 51 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. The US labor market has cooled significantly, with job and wage growth decelerating.
  2. The era of the 'Great Reshuffling' in the labor market is ending, as job switch rates decrease.
  3. Businesses are becoming more pessimistic about hiring, leading to lower revenue and hiring expectations.

What was the Tech-cession?

Apricitas Economics • 48 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💼 Business Economic Analysis
  1. Tech layoffs have significantly reduced and share prices of major tech companies have rebounded, indicating a positive shift in the industry
  2. Although tech-sector job growth has slowed, overall employment in the industry remains high compared to pre-pandemic levels
  3. The tech-cession led to a significant decline in compensation which impacted the broader economy, especially in high-tech areas like California

BlackRock’s Barbell

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Warren Buffett believes that being both a businessman and an investor is beneficial. Learning from each role can help improve performance in the other.
  2. Many investment firms, like Schroders and Pimco, struggle when they focus too much on one area and lack diversification. These issues can hurt their profits and reputation.
  3. BlackRock, the largest asset manager, successfully mixes passive and alternative investments. They are moving into higher-margin areas to boost profitability and adapt to market changes.

US Supply Chains are Recovering

Apricitas Economics • 42 implied HN points • 20 Jun 23
💼 Business Economic Analysis
  1. US supply chains are recovering after facing crises due to the pandemic.
  2. Constraints like materials shortages and logistics issues are decreasing, indicating improvements in the supply chain.
  3. Consumer demand for goods has slowed down, leading to manufacturers facing more demand constraints than supply constraints.

Clouded Judgement 11.22.24 - Is Software Back?

Clouded Judgement • 10 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. There seems to be a shift happening where software companies are performing better while major tech stocks are lagging. This raises questions about whether this trend will continue.
  2. Recent earnings reports from software companies show strong results, suggesting that their business fundamentals might be improving significantly.
  3. There's a strong possibility that the market is looking for new investment opportunities, especially as some investors take profits from the longstanding success of major tech firms.

How the Banking System Changed Post-SVB

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the American banking industry is adapting by relying less on uninsured deposits and more on alternative funding methods like borrowings.
  2. Deposits have restabilized post-SVB crisis, but banks are facing challenges with tight lending standards due to renewed economic pessimism and liquidity concerns.
  3. Banks are cautiously navigating post-SVB crisis by reducing reliance on uninsured deposits, managing securities losses, and addressing liquidity worries amid tighter monetary policy.

Testing the Vibes Hypothesis

Gideon's Substack • 14 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Analysis
  1. A New York Times poll revealed a disconnect between people's perception of the economy and the actual economic data.
  2. Biden voters, especially those under 45, have a more negative perception of the economy compared to older voters.
  3. Possible explanations for the perception divide include demographics, housing costs, rising expectations, and political polarization.

Clouded Judgement 10.11.24 - Budget Flush

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. A budget flush happens when companies spend leftover budget at the end of the year to avoid losing any funds. This can boost sales for software companies looking to close deals quickly.
  2. Last year's budget flush was stronger than usual, with companies spending more due to concerns over budget cuts. This year, a similar trend could happen, driven by a more positive economic outlook.
  3. The performance of software stocks is rising, signaling optimism in the market. Investors are hopeful that major companies will report good earnings, which could lead to more investments in the software sector.

Can monetary policies inflate a stock market bubble?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Easy money policies from central banks can create bubbles in the stock market. When interest rates are low for a long time, investors tend to take more risks.
  2. Looking at historical events, many market crashes followed a time of low interest rates. It shows that keeping rates low can lead to excessive speculation.
  3. Currently, the US stock market is believed to be slightly overvalued, but not in a bubble. Some analysts think markets are around 10% to 20% above fair value right now.

What happens to stocks after an inflation shock?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Stocks usually drop about 4% in real value after a sudden inflation shock. This happens because investors get worried about future profits.
  2. Not all companies respond the same way to inflation. Companies with high profit margins can handle inflation better than those with lower margins.
  3. To prepare for inflation shocks, it's smart to focus on companies that have high markups and strong cash flow. These companies are generally more resilient.

January 2019 Data Update 1: A reminder that equities are risky, in case you forgot!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 03 Jan 19
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. Investing in stocks comes with risk, and it’s important to remember that not every dip in prices is a chance to buy. Stocks can lose value, and there are reasons why they usually offer higher returns than safer investments.
  2. The equity risk premium, which tells us how much investors are being paid to take on the risk of stocks, has increased recently. This might suggest that stocks are undervalued compared to historical norms.
  3. Looking ahead, market conditions could be challenging with potential slowdowns in economic growth and global crises. Understanding these risks helps investors make more informed decisions.

European stocks offer earnings stability in surprising places

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Analysis
  1. European stocks can provide surprisingly stable earnings even in tough times. It's good to look for companies that have shown consistent growth before.
  2. In this uncertain economic climate, having a strategy can help investors feel more secure. Focusing on steady performers might be a smart approach.
  3. Many investors are looking for ways to adapt and manage risks this year. Finding reliable stocks in Europe could be part of the answer.

Market Power in Housing Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 2 HN points • 21 Feb 24
💼 Business Economic Analysis
  1. There is a widely held notion that the homebuilding industry may have oligopolistic power, potentially stemming from a misdiagnosis of the 2008 crisis.
  2. US home construction markets have been experiencing unusual behavior, with demand exceeding supply capacity, builders selling incomplete homes while pushing input prices higher, showing signs not typical of an oligopoly.
  3. Blaming corporations and outsiders for housing issues may perpetuate deep-seated prejudices and prevent solving communal problems effectively.