The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Q2 2025 Update: Equanimity Investing

Interconnected • 231 implied HN points • 20 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Equanimity is important in investing; it's about staying calm and balanced during market ups and downs. This mindset helps investors make clearer decisions despite emotional stress.
  2. Finding the right technology companies to invest in can be tough. Those that are poorly understood or misunderstood offer unique opportunities but require patience and education to explain them to others.
  3. Mistakes are part of the investing journey. Continuously learning and admitting when a strategy doesn’t work is crucial for finding future successful investments.

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

Infographics: Shadow Cash Trades & Flows

Concoda • 189 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The infographic shows how 'shadow cash' trades and flows are organized. This helps to understand hidden financial movements.
  2. Mapping these trades can reveal patterns similar to bonds, which is important for investors to know.
  3. Understanding shadow cash can help people make informed decisions about their investments and see the bigger picture in finance.

The Money Market Blindspot: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. A funding squeeze is turning into a big increase in cash availability. This change is happening as market conditions ease, but new issues like the debt ceiling are causing uncertainty.
  2. The financial system has a lot less cash than it had in the past, partly because of changes in how money markets operate. There hasn't been serious funding stress recently, which is a good sign.
  3. Another cash surge is expected to hit the banking system soon. As the Treasury reduces its cash cushion, this could lead to more market volatility down the line.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 20 May 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.
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Money Market Update

Concoda • 243 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jun 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The stock market often rises after hitting record highs, so there's less to worry about than some investors think. History shows the S&P usually has a positive return in the year after an all-time high.
  2. Many major companies are currently valued below their usual 5-year averages, meaning there might be good buying opportunities. It's worth looking at stocks like Amazon and JP Morgan as potential investments.
  3. Investing in dividend stocks is still important, but many options are becoming less attractive compared to bonds. Focusing on companies with lower dividend payout ratios can help mitigate risk.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 443 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve is continuing its balance sheet reduction to avoid financial crises, with expectations of it ending by June.
  2. The U.S. Treasury might reduce its issuance of short-term bills to save costs, especially if the Fed maintains its current policies.
  3. Despite challenges like a strong dollar and global tensions, risk assets are anticipated to perform better than bonds in the near future.

The Bear Cave #245

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. New reports are raising serious concerns about several companies, including Hershey, which was found to have harmful chemicals in its products. This could impact its reputation and sales.
  2. Several high-profile executives have recently resigned from their positions at major companies, suggesting possible instability or issues within those organizations.
  3. There are calls for caution when it comes to tweeting about stocks, as public opinions and statements can significantly affect market perceptions and investments.

Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 22 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. 2022 was a tough year for stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping about 18%. Negative years are common in the stock market, reminding us that investing carries risks.
  2. Inflation was a major factor in the market's decline, impacting returns on stocks. Higher costs of living affected investors' expectations and how companies performed.
  3. Looking forward to 2023, expected returns on stocks are higher, around 9.82%. However, market conditions can change, making it important for investors to stay informed and adjust their strategies.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

Just Own Stocks

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Investing in stocks is a smart long-term strategy. Even if the market feels uncertain, staying invested usually pays off over time.
  2. Many people underestimate the costs of owning a home. Homes can seem like good investments but often don't grow wealth as effectively as stocks.
  3. It's better to invest regularly in the stock market rather than trying to time when to buy or sell. Consistency is key for building wealth over the long run.

Saturday Commentary and Review #193

Fisted by Foucault • 125 implied HN points • 23 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Trends
  1. The war in Ukraine remains largely unchanged, with little progress seen on either side. This ongoing situation leaves many frustrated as the same points keep being reiterated.
  2. There is a growing concern about how free speech is being handled differently in Europe compared to the USA. While the US has strong protections, Europe is imposing more restrictions under the guise of protecting democracy.
  3. The nature of the US economy is shifting towards intangible assets, like intellectual property and brand value, which could lead to increased market volatility. This change means that a smaller number of companies have a larger influence on the stock market.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 07 Apr 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Tesla's future might rely heavily on robotaxis, which could change how we think about car ownership. Instead of selling cars, companies may focus on self-driving vehicles that people can use for convenience.
  2. Nvidia's stock has surged due to its strong position in AI chips, with many analysts still optimistic about its future growth. Most analysts recommend buying Nvidia, suggesting there could be more gains ahead.
  3. Historically, after a strong first quarter in the stock market, gains often continue through the rest of the year. Companies with low valuations and those focused on dividend growth are worth keeping an eye on.

The Nvidia economy and the benefits of toilet paper.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Nvidia is rising fast in the market and could soon be worth more than Apple. Experts believe its growth is different from the tech bubble of the past.
  2. During election years, the stock market often has ups and downs, but usually rallies in the second half. Historical trends show that certain sectors perform better depending on who wins the election.
  3. Investors should look for companies with strong 'moats' that protect them from risks. Essential products like toothpaste and toilet paper are always in demand, making companies like Procter & Gamble good choices.

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 29 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. After a strong first quarter, stock market gains often slow down or even decline in the second quarter. History shows the market can be vulnerable after big early gains.
  2. Slow and steady rate cuts from the Federal Reserve can be good for stocks. A gradual approach usually leads to bigger gains compared to quick cuts.
  3. Asset-light businesses, like franchises or companies with good credit terms, can grow without needing heavy investments. These businesses can be valuable for long-term investors.

Stocks Surge as Investors Take Victory Lap Around a Sinkhole

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 42 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The stock market is showing signs of a bear market rally rather than a strong recovery. Some quick rises in stocks do not fix deeper economic issues.
  2. Current economic problems like high auto loan delinquencies and softening profit margins are not going away. They're happening right now and need immediate attention.
  3. Lower interest rates may take a long time to affect the economy, and the financial challenges we're facing will not be resolved by optimistic headlines or temporary stock gains.

The Bear Cave #252

The Bear Cave • 419 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. There are new reports about companies experiencing accounting issues and bad loans. It's important to pay attention to these signs as they could lead to financial trouble.
  2. Many executives are resigning from their positions, which could indicate instability within those companies. If a company keeps changing leadership, it might be a bad sign for its future.
  3. Short sellers are becoming more vocal, and there are discussions about plans that could affect companies negatively. Watching how these short sellers act can give clues about company health.

Another Step in my Mortgage Radicalization

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The mortgage crackdown played a big role in causing the Great Recession. It disrupted the housing market and led to a lot of financial trouble.
  2. Historical patterns show that residential investment usually rises after the yield curve un-inverts, but that didn't happen in the late 2000s. Instead, investment remained low in 2025, unlike previous cycles.
  3. Today, the housing market is influenced by a complicated mix of factors, including high interest rates and potential recession signals. This could impact how homes are built and sold in the future.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

Top Links 626 The coming US labour market shock. Brazil and the bond vigilantes, China and the demand for gold & the triumph of cellular.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The US labor market is expected to face a significant shock soon. This means there might be big changes in job availability and employment rates.
  2. Brazil is experiencing challenges from bond vigilantes. These are investors who are cautious about government bonds and could influence Brazil's economy.
  3. China is seeing an increased demand for gold. This trend indicates shifts in how people are valuing money and investments in that country.

Data Update 3 for 2023: Interest Rates and Bond Returns

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. In 2022, both stocks and treasury bonds saw very bad returns, with treasury bonds performing the worst in historical terms. Investors lost significant money as interest rates rose sharply, which was unexpected for a market often seen as safe.
  2. Interest rates increased due to rising inflation and not just the actions of the Federal Reserve. As inflation went up, so did investor expectations, which led to higher rates across the board.
  3. Corporate bonds were also hit hard, especially lower-rated ones, leading to increased costs for companies. As a result, many companies may struggle to pay back debt, especially if the economy weakens.

Consumption Pricing Models Are Here to Stay

Condensing the Cloud • 255 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
💼 Business Economic Trends
  1. Consumption pricing models are becoming more prevalent and are beneficial for software companies
  2. Consumption-based pricing aligns cost with value, promotes customer flexibility, and aids in quick scalability
  3. Monitoring key metrics like revenue, RPO, and gross margin is crucial for companies implementing consumption-based pricing models

Top Links 619 The payments presidency. The coming rupee shock. Musk’s space juggernaut. Saffron in polycrisis.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. There's a focus on how fintech and payments are shaping politics, especially relating to Trump's presidency. It's interesting to see money technology playing such a big role in politics.
  2. India is facing potential challenges with its currency, the rupee, which could create economic shockwaves. People should keep an eye on how this may affect the global economy.
  3. Musk's ventures in space are being discussed, highlighting the impact of private companies on space exploration. It's exciting to see how the future of space travel is changing because of new technologies.

Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!

Musings on Markets • 559 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
💼 Business Economic Trends
  1. The Adani Group has rapidly grown in value, but much of this rise is supported by heavy debt. This heavy borrowing raises concerns about their financial stability.
  2. Investors are worried about potential financial manipulation and the use of shell companies by the Adani family. These practices could undermine trust and lead to serious consequences.
  3. Family businesses in India, like the Adani Group, can struggle with control issues that may harm overall growth. It's important for these companies to seek outside management talent to thrive.

Top Links 571 Trump's fiscal shock. The Latino working-class. The Mozambique tuna fishing fleet is for sale.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Trends
  1. Trump's fiscal policies could have a significant impact, leading to major financial changes. It's important to think about what these changes could mean for the economy.
  2. The Latino working class plays a key role in shaping economic trends and discussions today. Understanding their perspectives can help in finding better policies.
  3. There are interesting developments in unexpected areas like the Mozambique tuna fishing fleet. This shows that global events can affect local economies in surprising ways.

Top Links 625 Decomposing economic surprise. When threats work and when they don't. Is quantum the new AI? And the Secret Leviathan.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index for the US shows how unexpected events in the economy can change predictions. It's important to pay attention to these surprises to get a better understanding of the current economic climate.
  2. Understanding when threats are effective or not can help in managing situations better. Knowing the right time to take action can make a big difference in outcomes.
  3. Quantum technology is being compared to AI as a new frontier in innovation. It's exciting to think about how these technologies might change our future.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 21 Apr 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Investors are advised to stay calm during challenging times. Historical data shows that the stock market often rebounds after geopolitical issues arise.
  2. Bitcoin's next steps may be influenced more by new ETF trends than by traditional events like the halving. Experts believe institutional money could drive significant growth.
  3. Gold has outperformed stocks in about one-third of the last 40 years. However, generally, stocks have offered better returns over that same period.

Long-Term Trends in Homes and Households

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Trends
  1. The housing market is facing a demand for new homes estimated between 15 to 20 million units to return to previous trends. This means we need to build more homes each year to keep up with the demand.
  2. Vacancy rates are a key indicator of the housing market's health, showing how many homes are currently empty. An increase in vacancies suggests changes in how many homes we have available compared to the number of people needing them.
  3. As more rental units are being built, the homeownership rate is decreasing. This trend may lead to more discussions about who is buying homes and whether we should limit rental housing to help families become homeowners.

What Exactly Is Venture Capital?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Venture capital is a type of funding provided to early-stage companies that have high growth potential. It's different from private equity, which usually invests in more mature companies.
  2. Many startups need venture capital to expand, but it's not the main way new businesses get funding. A lot of startups rely on personal savings or small loans instead.
  3. There are common myths about venture capitalists, such as their wealth or ability to innovate. In reality, not all VCs are rich and many investments don't yield huge returns.

Top Links 544 The US housing market is stuck. The "dim Sum death cross". How young women are overtaking men & brands are triggering cognitive dissonance.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Trends
  1. The US housing market is currently not moving, which means buying or selling homes is very slow right now.
  2. Young women are becoming more successful than men in many areas, changing the usual dynamics in society.
  3. Brands are creating confusion for people, leading them to think differently about their products and values.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 3rd, 2025

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 04 Aug 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. This week has several important earnings reports from companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald’s. These reports can affect the stock market and investor sentiment.
  2. Many economic events are scheduled for the week, including jobless claims and inflation rates in various countries. These indicators will help us understand the global economic situation.
  3. Keeping an eye on vehicle sales and household debt in the U.S. is crucial. These statistics give insights into consumer behavior and the overall health of the economy.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Trends
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. Real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, are currently about 3% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that while house prices have gone up nominally, they aren't as high when you consider inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is significantly lower than its peak in 2022, indicating that renting may be more affordable compared to buying in some areas right now.
  3. National house prices are still higher than they were during the housing bubble, but the recent downward trend suggests it may take time for prices to recover fully or hit new highs.

Top Links 541 US profits have a long way to fall. Africa's new gold rush. Laos' fx reserves running low & the crisis in the Sahel.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. US corporate profits are expected to decline significantly in the future. This could impact the economy and stock markets.
  2. Africa is experiencing a new wave of interest in gold mining. This could bring economic growth to the region.
  3. Laos is facing a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which may lead to a financial crisis. Additionally, the Sahel region is experiencing ongoing challenges and instability.