The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 2

Yet Another Value Blog • 1631 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Companies Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Strategy
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.

Investing Update: 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 112 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 had a strong year in 2024, finishing with a gain of 23.3%. It was one of the best years for the stock market since the late 90s.
  2. Many stocks performed well, like Nvidia and Palantir, while others like Boeing and Nike struggled significantly. Investors are keeping a close eye on these ups and downs.
  3. Although not as high as 2023, the actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 with a return of 49.5%. This shows a consistent trend of good investment decisions.

The Money Market Blindspot: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Debt Management Economic Trends
  1. A funding squeeze is turning into a big increase in cash availability. This change is happening as market conditions ease, but new issues like the debt ceiling are causing uncertainty.
  2. The financial system has a lot less cash than it had in the past, partly because of changes in how money markets operate. There hasn't been serious funding stress recently, which is a good sign.
  3. Another cash surge is expected to hit the banking system soon. As the Treasury reduces its cash cushion, this could lead to more market volatility down the line.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 443 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Economic Trends Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve is continuing its balance sheet reduction to avoid financial crises, with expectations of it ending by June.
  2. The U.S. Treasury might reduce its issuance of short-term bills to save costs, especially if the Fed maintains its current policies.
  3. Despite challenges like a strong dollar and global tensions, risk assets are anticipated to perform better than bonds in the near future.

Top Links 541 US profits have a long way to fall. Africa's new gold rush. Laos' fx reserves running low & the crisis in the Sahel.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Corporate Profits Economic Trends Global Markets Resource Management Financial Crises
  1. US corporate profits are expected to decline significantly in the future. This could impact the economy and stock markets.
  2. Africa is experiencing a new wave of interest in gold mining. This could bring economic growth to the region.
  3. Laos is facing a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which may lead to a financial crisis. Additionally, the Sahel region is experiencing ongoing challenges and instability.
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Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic Trends Interest Rates
  1. The stock market is experiencing a decline due to concerns about weaker growth in China and delays in new technologies from major companies like Nvidia. Investors are getting nervous, leading to a selloff.
  2. Reports of disappointing job numbers in the U.S. have made investors worried about the economy, especially with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates into a recession rather than a soft landing.
  3. Despite the current market downturn, historical data suggests that bull markets can last longer than many think. This bull market has lasted about 22 months so far, which is still shorter than average.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate Local government
  1. Many cities have the ability to build more homes. This could help solve the housing shortage that many areas are facing right now.
  2. Some regions struggle with local rules that make it hard to build new homes, while others have been affected by tight mortgage lending practices.
  3. The Midwest has been particularly hit by the lack of new housing construction, even with growing demand, mainly due to mortgage issues from the last decade.

21 Century Housing Summary, Missouri Edition

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Policy Impact
  1. Housing prices in Missouri increased from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, but not necessarily because of a bubble. Instead, they align more with normal price patterns over a long period.
  2. There was a lending boom that raised home prices, mostly due to easier access to credit. However, this did not lead to a big increase in homeownership in Missouri.
  3. After the market crash post-2008, home construction dropped significantly, causing a supply shortage which has kept rents and housing prices high, particularly in lower-tier markets.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Trends Urban Development
  1. There's a significant housing shortage in many metro areas, estimated to be about 10% of the total housing stock nationwide. This means many places don't have enough homes for everyone who wants to live there.
  2. The housing shortage has changed over time, often depending on local conditions and policies. Some areas had bigger shortages in the past due to population movement and construction slowdowns.
  3. When housing production drops, it usually leads to people moving away from cities with limited homes. This creates a cycle where demand keeps rising, but construction can't keep up, leading to more shortages.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 21 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Cryptocurrency Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Investing in the stock market during election years is usually a good idea, as many years have shown positive returns regardless of who wins.
  2. Mark Cuban suggested that a Trump presidency could benefit Bitcoin and crypto businesses, mentioning that lower tax rates and business-friendly regulations could boost prices.
  3. Amazon's Prime program remains very popular, with many members sticking around for years, which supports the company’s strong sales during events like Prime Day.

Trade Ideas for 2025

The Last Bear Standing • 53 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Trading Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. There are 17 stock ideas for 2025 that include 10 buying opportunities and 4 stocks to sell. These ideas focus on different industries and market trends.
  2. The author had success in the past year by betting on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. This year, the focus shifts entirely to equity markets.
  3. The listed stocks cover various topics like space expansion, energy storage, and datacenter needs, showing a diverse range for potential investment.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Inflation Supply and Demand
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 199 implied HN points • 23 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Strategies
  1. Nvidia's stock is seen as highly valued and risky by some investors. They believe more affordable competitors are rising, and the AI chip market isn't as profitable as thought.
  2. The stock market is split; while tech stocks soar, many other sectors seem stagnant. It's suggested to balance your portfolio by investing in more stable sectors like industrials and healthcare.
  3. Investing in Japan is gaining attention due to favorable economic changes and companies aiming to boost their values. This could provide good opportunities for diversification.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgages Economic Trends Credit Risk
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 159 implied HN points • 29 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Billionaires Dividends Economic Trends
  1. AI is really changing the game for billionaires, with many seeing huge increases in their wealth this year. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, has gained $65 billion thanks to this trend.
  2. Investors are seeing big changes in the stock market due to AI. Companies tied to AI are outperforming others significantly, which hasn't been seen since the dot-com boom.
  3. Dividends are an important part of investing, and there are companies that have been paying them for over 100 years. These can be good long-term investments since they show a commitment to returning value to shareholders.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Housing prices in different neighborhoods react differently to economic changes. In Atlanta, for instance, while the economy was severely impacted, the wealthy neighborhoods faced less of a decline compared to lower-income areas.
  2. Retirement communities usually rely less on credit markets, as many buyers pay in cash. This makes them interesting places to study housing trends and market responses to economic events.
  3. Local housing supply issues can drive prices up across all neighborhoods, not just low-income ones. When there's not enough housing built, even retirement homes can see rising costs.

❄️ 📈 Meta et Apple, une bonne idée ? La fin de Google Search ?

Snowball • 727 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💰 Finance Technology Market Analysis Company performance Investment Economic Trends
  1. Apple announces mixed quarterly results, with higher iPhone and wearables sales but lower revenues in China.
  2. ESG funds' popularity drops due to rising interest rates.
  3. Startups like Perplexity and Arc are reshaping internet search with artificial intelligence, possibly challenging Google's traditional method.

How VCs and Startups can beat currency depreciation 🌍

The VC Corner • 259 implied HN points • 15 May 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investing Emerging Markets Economic Trends
  1. Emerging markets face big challenges because their currencies often lose value quickly. This makes it hard for investors to see good returns.
  2. Venture capital can be a smart way to invest in tech startups in these markets, targeting companies that can thrive despite currency issues.
  3. Look for signs of potential like high smartphone use and government support for tech growth, as these can help identify promising investment opportunities.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Credit Scores Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Financial Instruments Banking
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

Dallas vs. Austin: Brief Clarification

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Land use
  1. Dallas and Austin are two different cities with their own unique characteristics. It's good to know what sets them apart when considering living or investing there.
  2. Understanding the housing market in both cities can help you make better decisions. Each area has different trends and demands.
  3. Comparing these cities can provide insights into job opportunities and lifestyle options. It’s important to think about what matters most to you.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Updates
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgages Economic Trends
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

Rent inflation since Covid

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Inflation Economic Trends Urban Development Migration
  1. Rent prices have risen significantly since Covid, especially in areas with low housing supply. This has caused many families to struggle with housing costs.
  2. After a temporary shift in housing demand during the pandemic, some families moved away from expensive urban areas. However, this has led to rising rents in previously cheaper neighborhoods.
  3. Currently, rent inflation seems to be moderating, which is good news for families. If housing construction continues to grow, it could help families afford better living situations.

A Year in Review

The Last Bear Standing • 45 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. 2024 showed a strong bull market, with big tech and AI leading the way while smaller companies struggled early on.
  2. Mid-year, signs of inflation and unemployment triggered some market concerns but were quickly eased by positive economic data and rate cuts.
  3. In general, equities did well this year, while bonds had a tougher time, especially U.S. Treasuries, which struggled with rising yields.

We're "On The Cusp" Of Another Inflationary Breakout

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Policy
  1. Gold and silver did better than regular stocks in the last quarter, which is unusual. This could mean something important is happening in the market.
  2. Bitcoin had a fantastic year, showing that people are worried about money losing its value. It’s now a big part of some investment funds.
  3. The U.S. government is spending a lot, which helped the economy grow more than expected. But this could lead to inflation issues in the future.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Urban Development Supply Chain
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

Jumping the Shark

The Last Bear Standing • 55 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investments Cryptocurrency Speculation Economic Trends
  1. The stock market is moving up quickly, with some stocks seeing huge gains in just a short time. It feels like the excitement from early 2021 is returning.
  2. Investors are showing great interest in areas like cryptocurrencies and quantum computing, leading to sudden spikes in these stocks. This might remind people of past market trends.
  3. There's a sense of irrational confidence in some investments, which can lead to risky behavior. The market is moving in unpredictable ways, and that's something to watch closely.

[P] VYX: Checking Out in 2025? (Part 3)

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Business strategy Corporate changes
  1. James Kelly has become the new CEO, taking over from David Wilkinson. This change in leadership may lead to new strategies and directions for the company.
  2. The focus seems to be on developments in 2025, suggesting that there are important plans or changes expected in the near future.
  3. This information is part of a subscription model, indicating that there might be more in-depth content available for paying subscribers.

Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. There's a discussion about housing trends, led by Mike Simonsen from Altos Research. It's important to know what's happening in the housing market right now.
  2. The video linked offers insights on various housing aspects. Watching it can help you understand current market conditions better.
  3. CalculatedRisk Newsletter is supported by its readers. Subscribing helps the creator continue sharing valuable information.

Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Credit Scores Homeownership Real Estate Economic Trends
  1. After 2008, the number of mortgages given to people with lower credit scores dropped significantly compared to those with higher scores. This changed the lending landscape quite a bit.
  2. High real estate prices are affecting mortgage access more than the other way around. Many lower credit score borrowers are struggling to get mortgages, leading to higher rents and home prices.
  3. The tightening of lending rules since 2008 has made it harder for many people to become homeowners, leading to a market where only certain buyers can take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Economic Trends Stocks
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Risk Assessment Financial Data
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

Market Right Now Is "A Story Of Contrasts"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Investment Advice Economic Trends Risk management
  1. The current market is unpredictable and may not be the best time to make forced trades.
  2. It's important to watch for short-term price jumps created by sentiment changes and market positioning.
  3. Relying on experienced traders for insights can be helpful, but always consult a financial advisor before making decisions.

Market Resilience or Investors in Denial: The Market at Mid-Year 2023

Musings on Markets • 799 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Stock Market Risk management
  1. The first half of 2023 surprised many investors who expected a tough year, as markets unexpectedly improved despite fears of inflation and recession.
  2. Tech companies, especially big names like Apple and Microsoft, drove the stock market's gains, while some sectors like energy struggled.
  3. Overall, it's important to stay humble in investing because predicting market trends is extremely difficult, and what goes up can also come down.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 16 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Strategies
  1. Broadcom's stock has seen a significant increase, driven by high demand for its AI products, and investors are optimistic about its future.
  2. Experts, including AI leaders, warn that tech companies need to invest more in AI safety as competition grows, emphasizing the potential risks if AI surpasses human intelligence.
  3. The market for obesity drugs is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the way, indicating a strong investment opportunity.

October 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.