The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Homebuilder Earnings Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Monetary Policy Risk management
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

Housing Worries Are Building

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Economic Trends Home Sales
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In November, housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 1.289 million, marking a 1.8% decrease from October. The overall rate is also down 14.6% compared to November 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts saw a slight increase of 6.4% from October, while multi-family starts fell significantly by 27.6% year-over-year. This shows that the single-family housing market is performing better than multi-family units.
  3. Year-to-date, total housing starts are down 4.3%, but single-family starts are up 7.2%. Multi-family starts, however, have seen a decline of 30.1%, indicating a tough year for that segment of the market.

What's going on with ServiceTitan's IPO, earnings updates, and stock market stupidity

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Earnings Reports IPOs Economic Trends
  1. ServiceTitan is planning to go public, but it has some tough financial hurdles to overcome. The company needs to set a higher share price than what it is aiming for to avoid losing money during the process.
  2. Several companies, like Box and Salesforce, have recently reported positive earnings, showing they are performing better than expected. This positive news suggests some strength in the tech market.
  3. A recent coup attempt in South Korea ended quickly when lawmakers voted against martial law. It highlights the resilience of democratic processes in the country, even in dire situations.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Dividends Economic Trends
  1. The stock market often rises after hitting record highs, so there's less to worry about than some investors think. History shows the S&P usually has a positive return in the year after an all-time high.
  2. Many major companies are currently valued below their usual 5-year averages, meaning there might be good buying opportunities. It's worth looking at stocks like Amazon and JP Morgan as potential investments.
  3. Investing in dividend stocks is still important, but many options are becoming less attractive compared to bonds. Focusing on companies with lower dividend payout ratios can help mitigate risk.

Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 22 Jan 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Risk Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. 2022 was a tough year for stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping about 18%. Negative years are common in the stock market, reminding us that investing carries risks.
  2. Inflation was a major factor in the market's decline, impacting returns on stocks. Higher costs of living affected investors' expectations and how companies performed.
  3. Looking forward to 2023, expected returns on stocks are higher, around 9.82%. However, market conditions can change, making it important for investors to stay informed and adjust their strategies.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 07 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Tesla's future might rely heavily on robotaxis, which could change how we think about car ownership. Instead of selling cars, companies may focus on self-driving vehicles that people can use for convenience.
  2. Nvidia's stock has surged due to its strong position in AI chips, with many analysts still optimistic about its future growth. Most analysts recommend buying Nvidia, suggesting there could be more gains ahead.
  3. Historically, after a strong first quarter in the stock market, gains often continue through the rest of the year. Companies with low valuations and those focused on dividend growth are worth keeping an eye on.

Longs For Shy Bears

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Analysis Economic Trends Short selling Behavioral Finance
  1. It's important to focus on short-term survival in investing, even if you have long-term goals. You need to manage risks carefully in the volatile market.
  2. There are signs of extreme behavior in trends like crypto and AI, but not acting rashly is key. Timing and proper planning are crucial to avoid losses.
  3. The investor expresses a desire to bet against market crazes but acknowledges that it requires careful strategy to be successful.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Statistics
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

The Nvidia economy and the benefits of toilet paper.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Trends Market Analysis Business Models
  1. Nvidia is rising fast in the market and could soon be worth more than Apple. Experts believe its growth is different from the tech bubble of the past.
  2. During election years, the stock market often has ups and downs, but usually rallies in the second half. Historical trends show that certain sectors perform better depending on who wins the election.
  3. Investors should look for companies with strong 'moats' that protect them from risks. Essential products like toothpaste and toilet paper are always in demand, making companies like Procter & Gamble good choices.

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 29 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. After a strong first quarter, stock market gains often slow down or even decline in the second quarter. History shows the market can be vulnerable after big early gains.
  2. Slow and steady rate cuts from the Federal Reserve can be good for stocks. A gradual approach usually leads to bigger gains compared to quick cuts.
  3. Asset-light businesses, like franchises or companies with good credit terms, can grow without needing heavy investments. These businesses can be valuable for long-term investors.

Investing Update: Is This Peak Bullishness?

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high this month, with November being the best month of the year so far. This indicates strong market performance overall.
  2. Many individual stocks are also doing great this year, with a majority of them showing positive results. Specifically, financial stocks are leading the way in performance.
  3. December is traditionally a good month for the market, especially in an election year, which encourages bullish investor sentiment.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Commodities Real Estate Investment Strategies
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Economic Trends Personal Finance
  1. The author added to an existing investment in a debated stock. It's important to keep track of ongoing discussions in the market.
  2. This update is specifically for paid subscribers, suggesting exclusive insights for them. It highlights the value of being a paid member.
  3. Stay engaged with financial updates and portfolio changes to make informed decisions. Regular updates can help you understand market movements better.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Financial Systems Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

Data Update 3 for 2023: Interest Rates and Bond Returns

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Bonds Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. In 2022, both stocks and treasury bonds saw very bad returns, with treasury bonds performing the worst in historical terms. Investors lost significant money as interest rates rose sharply, which was unexpected for a market often seen as safe.
  2. Interest rates increased due to rising inflation and not just the actions of the Federal Reserve. As inflation went up, so did investor expectations, which led to higher rates across the board.
  3. Corporate bonds were also hit hard, especially lower-rated ones, leading to increased costs for companies. As a result, many companies may struggle to pay back debt, especially if the economy weakens.

Consumption Pricing Models Are Here to Stay

Condensing the Cloud • 255 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
💼 Business Finance Technology Startups Subscription Models Economic Trends
  1. Consumption pricing models are becoming more prevalent and are beneficial for software companies
  2. Consumption-based pricing aligns cost with value, promotes customer flexibility, and aids in quick scalability
  3. Monitoring key metrics like revenue, RPO, and gross margin is crucial for companies implementing consumption-based pricing models

Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!

Musings on Markets • 559 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
💼 Business Corporate Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Corporate Governance
  1. The Adani Group has rapidly grown in value, but much of this rise is supported by heavy debt. This heavy borrowing raises concerns about their financial stability.
  2. Investors are worried about potential financial manipulation and the use of shell companies by the Adani family. These practices could undermine trust and lead to serious consequences.
  3. Family businesses in India, like the Adani Group, can struggle with control issues that may harm overall growth. It's important for these companies to seek outside management talent to thrive.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Construction Economic Trends
  1. Minneapolis experienced a drop in rents in 2021 and 2022 but the correlation between housing construction and rent trends isn't conclusive. It's important to assess data carefully before drawing conclusions.
  2. Auckland, New Zealand, has visible rent decreases due to effective supply-side reforms, contrasting with Minneapolis where the impact of such reforms is less clear.
  3. The correlation between income, new home construction, and rent inflation post-Great Recession reveals unusual patterns, possibly influenced by mortgage suppression policies, highlighting the need for comprehensive data analysis.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 21 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Crypto Stocks Economic Trends
  1. Investors are advised to stay calm during challenging times. Historical data shows that the stock market often rebounds after geopolitical issues arise.
  2. Bitcoin's next steps may be influenced more by new ETF trends than by traditional events like the halving. Experts believe institutional money could drive significant growth.
  3. Gold has outperformed stocks in about one-third of the last 40 years. However, generally, stocks have offered better returns over that same period.

What Exactly Is Venture Capital?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investment Startups Private Equity Risk management Economic Trends
  1. Venture capital is a type of funding provided to early-stage companies that have high growth potential. It's different from private equity, which usually invests in more mature companies.
  2. Many startups need venture capital to expand, but it's not the main way new businesses get funding. A lot of startups rely on personal savings or small loans instead.
  3. There are common myths about venture capitalists, such as their wealth or ability to innovate. In reality, not all VCs are rich and many investments don't yield huge returns.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

What is a Mutual Fund?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 339 implied HN points • 03 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Mutual Funds Portfolio Management Financial Education Economic Trends
  1. A mutual fund combines money from many people to invest in things like stocks and bonds. This way, even if one investment doesn't do well, everyone shares the impact, reducing risk.
  2. There are different types of mutual funds, like equity funds for stocks and bond funds for fixed income. Each type focuses on different investments to suit various goals.
  3. People like mutual funds because they simplify investing. Instead of picking individual stocks, investors can buy a piece of many investments at once and still have the potential for good returns.

A watershed moment for bond yields

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Bond Market Economic Trends Government Policy Macroeconomics
  1. Long-term bond yields are rising again after decades of decline. This shift suggests that investors are now expecting a risk premium for holding government bonds.
  2. Several factors influence bond yields, including government deficits, demographic changes, and the balance of supply and demand for safe investments. These can push yields higher or lower.
  3. The trends observed in bond markets could change how governments finance their debts in the future. It's a developing situation that could impact financial markets.

People Have More Money Than Ever

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💰 Finance Personal Finance Consumer behavior Asset management Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. Many people have more money now than ever because wages have been rising faster than inflation for over a year. This means that they can buy more with their earnings.
  2. Homeowners are seeing their property values increase, while those looking to buy are facing more expensive housing costs. This shows the trade-off between rising asset values and affordability.
  3. Overall, both asset prices and wages are at all-time highs, which has led to a significant increase in net worth for Americans across all income levels, especially the bottom 50%.

The crisis VCs face turning investments into cash returns

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investments Startups Financial Markets Economic Trends
  1. Venture capitalists are struggling to turn their investments into cash returns. This means they are having a tough time selling their stakes in companies for a profit.
  2. There has been a significant drop in the number of venture-backed company exits. The amount of money made from these exits is now much lower than it was in previous years.
  3. The slow pace of returns is affecting the number of active venture funds. Many funds have stopped working or reduced in size because of the less promising investment environment.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Debt Management Corporate Finance Investment strategy Risk Assessment Economic Trends
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research
  1. The national house price index increased by 3.9% from last year, showing steady growth in home values.
  2. Most cities saw home prices rise month-to-month, but some places like Los Angeles and Miami experienced declines.
  3. While year-over-year growth is still positive, the pace of increase is slowing down, indicating that the housing market might be stabilizing.

Picking Stocks Is Hard

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Financial Analysis Economic Trends
  1. Picking stocks is really tough because most of the returns come from a tiny number of stocks. It means many investors, even pros, often lose money.
  2. About two-thirds of stocks don't do as well as the overall market. This makes it harder for investment managers to pick winning stocks.
  3. Over 90% of active fund managers struggle to beat their benchmarks over ten years. It shows just how challenging stock picking really is.

A Bond Unlike Any Other

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Consumer behavior Market Analysis
  1. McDonald's has a strong supply chain and offers consistent revenue growth because people love their products. This makes it a safe investment in uncertain times.
  2. Ordering through the McDonald's app can save you money due to inflated menu prices for delivery. Always check the app for discounts before you order.
  3. In an inflationary environment, holding stocks like McDonald's is better than bonds. They have stable, predictable revenues that can help beat inflation.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.