The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

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The Fed's Bullishness Is Pushing Up Rates

The Overshoot • 412 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed is optimistic about the economy, expecting less need to suppress job market for inflation control.
  2. Fed officials anticipate keeping interest rates relatively stable in the coming years.
  3. There is a shift in Fed officials' projections, showing higher interest rates expected by end of 2024.

How Much Change When BOJ Eventually Tweaks? Part 1

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rate changes depend on both BOJ policy and financial market conditions, and a policy tweak is likely to result in a gradual, minor impact on rates.
  2. BOJ's intention appears to be maintaining accommodative financial conditions by making small adjustments to policies like the overnight rate and yield curve control.
  3. BOJ's decision-making process is influenced by the balance of risks in moving too early or too late, with a focus on clear evidence of sustained wage growth before significant policy changes.

¥144 Is Weakest Since Last November

Japan Economy Watch • 359 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The weakening of the yen is closely tied to the gap between Japanese and American 10-year government bond rates, with a 97% correlation.
  2. Investors are learning to trust the statements of central banks like the BOJ and US Fed more, impacting market behavior and currency values.
  3. The chronic weakness of the yen reflects Japan's loss of competitiveness, leading to a trade deficit, higher consumer prices, and lower real wages.

Developing a New (Alan) Taylorism for the Remainder of the 21st Century

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 31 May 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. We need to learn from past economic crises so we can prepare for future shocks. They often have long-lasting effects on our economy, making recovery much harder.
  2. Controlling inflation is key for political stability. When inflation is low and stable, people trust their leaders and feel secure about the economy.
  3. Even with challenges, like low interest rates, we have a great chance for investment in things like infrastructure and education. We should take advantage of these conditions to grow.

Why 3 US banks collapsed in 1 week: Economist Michael Hudson explains

Geopolitical Economy Report • 358 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discussed the collapse of US banks, noting similarities to the 2008 financial crisis and the reliance on government bailouts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's handling of interest rates and bailouts in response to bank collapses indicates systemic issues in the financial sector.
  3. Derivatives, specifically highly leveraged bets, are looming as a significant risk for the banking sector and could trigger the next big crash.
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Cutting Interest Rates Isn’t a Cure‑All for the Economy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Cutting interest rates only creates a temporary boom with fake job gains and malinvestment that leads to a deeper bust later.
  2. A real recovery needs market‑driven interest rates, sound money, and fiscal restraint so savings and investment can realign properly.
  3. Labor-market problems are worsened by wage rigidities and regulations, so letting wages adjust and removing hiring barriers helps jobs recover.

The Fed Hits CTRL+Print Again

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed cut its policy rate to a 3.50–3.75% target range.
  2. It announced fresh balance sheet expansion by buying Treasury bills, effectively restarting quantitative easing to add liquidity.
  3. The decision passed 9–3, showing some dissent while signaling a renewed easing stance that injects more cash into markets.

Discounting the Future: Financial Markets, Memory, & the Mirage of ‘Normal’

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Financial markets are uncertain right now, with discount rates showing anxiety about growth and policy directions. It's a confusing time that could lead to either growth or recession.
  2. The Federal Reserve is divided on its future rates, indicating a cautious approach as they wait for more data. Mixed opinions exist about how to respond to inflation and economic conditions.
  3. The concept of a 'normal' economy has changed significantly since the 1990s. Today, interest rates and inflation are at levels that do not align with past expectations, leading to a new financial landscape.

Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. year mortgage rates are about 6.3%, putting them back in a 6–7% range that may be the new normal similar to pre-2008 levels.
  2. Cuts to the Fed Funds rate don’t automatically lower long-term yields — the 10‑year Treasury has risen even as the Fed moved toward cuts.
  3. After more than a decade of unusually low rates, the current rise back to pre‑crisis ranges signals a durable shift in the interest-rate environment.

The Bonds And The Stock Market

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The stock market has experienced various crashes in the past, but today there are better systems in place to prevent a major crash like in 1987. It's still possible to see market dips, but the overall structure is stronger now.
  2. Interest rates on government bonds are rising, which could impact the stock market negatively if rates reach certain levels. Keeping an eye on these rates is important for understanding market trends.
  3. Government spending is a concern, and both political parties aren't talking about reducing it. If spending continues unchecked, it could lead to serious economic issues in the future.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

Australia's coming housing bust

Asian Century Stocks • 275 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Australia's housing market has experienced a long boom driven by various factors like low interest rates, commodity exports, and immigration.
  2. The affordability of Australian properties is a concern with high housing market values, low rental yields, and high household debt compared to income.
  3. Rising interest rates, declining job market, and decreasing migration from mainland China could lead to a potential housing market slump in Australia.

The Return Of Quantitative Easing

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is restarting quantitative easing to keep reserves ample and preserve policy flexibility.
  2. Huge Treasury deficits and political pressure have pushed up demand for reserves, so the Fed is buying assets to ease policy without formally cutting the federal funds rate.
  3. Restarting QE will help lower government borrowing costs and reduce the Fed’s interest bill, but it risks higher inflation and may look like capitulation to political pressure.

The LIBOR scandal, part 1: background

The Jolly Contrarian • 79 implied HN points • 08 Apr 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Banks have structural interest rate risk, which they manage by borrowing at a low rate and lending at a high one.
  2. The LIBOR rate was created as a benchmark for banks to set their interest rates and trade standardized instruments.
  3. Interest rate swaps changed the game by allowing banks to trade interest rates with counterparties, impacting how they managed their structural interest rate risk.

Data Update 3 for 2023: Interest Rates and Bond Returns

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. In 2022, both stocks and treasury bonds saw very bad returns, with treasury bonds performing the worst in historical terms. Investors lost significant money as interest rates rose sharply, which was unexpected for a market often seen as safe.
  2. Interest rates increased due to rising inflation and not just the actions of the Federal Reserve. As inflation went up, so did investor expectations, which led to higher rates across the board.
  3. Corporate bonds were also hit hard, especially lower-rated ones, leading to increased costs for companies. As a result, many companies may struggle to pay back debt, especially if the economy weakens.

Longer, Higher For Longer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates are the core price that coordinates savings and investment, and heavy central-bank intervention has turned them into an administered price that can obscure real market signals.
  2. After a forty-year decline, long-term rates may be shifting higher because of large government debt, weaker anti-inflation norms, and adverse demographics — implying bonds could be "longer, higher for longer."
  3. If long rates stay higher, long-term bonds and real stock returns will likely suffer while commodities (especially gold) may outperform; keeping a very low fixed-rate mortgage and favoring companies with easy access to commodities could make sense.

Money Supply Growth Surges to Multi-Year High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The money supply has accelerated in recent months, with TMS at a multi-year high and M2 hitting record levels above $22 trillion.
  2. That surge is happening despite weak economic signs like rising layoffs, bankruptcies, and rising delinquencies, which makes the growth surprising.
  3. Fed easing (rate cuts and slower quantitative tightening) plus commercial bank lending are driving the increase, and a large share of today’s money stock was created since 2009 and especially since 2020.

The Japanese Maginot Line

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy caused chaos in FX and stock markets. The volatility in bond markets led to unscheduled bond-buying operations.
  2. Yield Curve Control aims to keep bond yields in a tight range to suppress yields and maintain accommodative monetary policy. This strategy becomes crucial in Japan with high government debt.
  3. The BoJ is strategically intervening in bond rates, pushing them back down whenever they approach a certain threshold. They aim to maintain confusion and market control.

Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update

Musings on Markets • 699 implied HN points • 27 Sep 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Inflation has returned strongly in 2022 after a long period of stability. Many businesses and investors were caught off guard as they hadn't adjusted their strategies for high inflation.
  2. Rising inflation is leading to higher interest rates, which can impact the economy and market investments. This has caused a shift in investor behavior, making them more cautious.
  3. Higher inflation also makes the future of economic growth uncertain. Investors are nervous, and their outlook on the economy has worsened, affecting their investment decisions.

Will Kuroda Blink This Week?

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 14 Jan 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan is facing pressure to raise interest rates as the market challenges its efforts to keep rates down.
  2. Despite spending 5% of GDP on purchasing government bonds, the BOJ's attempts to control rates have not been successful.
  3. The future moves of the Bank of Japan will likely affect the yen's value, impacting inflation, trade competitiveness, and overall economic well-being of Japan.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Existing home sales likely ran at a 4.10 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, unchanged from October and about 1.7% below last November; median single-family prices were roughly 1.9% higher year-over-year.
  2. Current-coupon MBS spreads to Treasuries are very low — near late‑2022 levels — driven by unusually low interest-rate volatility and speculation that GSEs will keep buying MBS.
  3. There is concern GSEs are ramping up debt‑financed MBS purchases at the FHFA’s direction; those purchases may be politically motivated, not profitable given low spreads, and not in the public’s financial interest.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part I

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 06 Sep 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Different countries are experiencing different types of inflation, each requiring unique solutions. Japan faces a dilemma with its low headline inflation and core inflation dominated by food and energy.
  2. Central bankers focus on core inflation for long-term trends while considering demand-pull and cost-push sources of inflation. Japan's inflation is mainly driven by cost-push forces, unlike the US and Europe where demand-pull forces are stronger.
  3. Dealing with cost-push inflation is more complex as it involves supply chain disruptions and input price spikes. Timing the response to inflation and adjusting interest rates involves balancing economic growth and avoiding recession.

The Market Vs. The Bank of Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Market pressure forced the Bank of Japan to increase the maximum rate of 10-year Japan Government Bonds
  2. BOJ Governor Kuroda believes the rate hike was a technical measure, not a start of tightening monetary policy
  3. The outcome will be shaped by factors like BOJ's bond purchases, impact of interest rate rises on businesses, value of the yen, and course of inflation

In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets • 679 implied HN points • 11 May 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Inflation has become a major issue for the economy, causing instability in markets with unpredictable effects on stock prices. Understanding inflation's impact is important for making investment decisions.
  2. As inflation rises, interest rates also climb, leading to increased borrowing costs and affecting how risky investments are perceived. This creates uncertainty for investors about how to respond.
  3. There are different potential outcomes for the economy based on inflation trends, ranging from a quick stabilization to severe recession risks. Investors need to adapt their strategies depending on which scenario seems more likely.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

Dialing Back Restraint

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates may have reached their highest point in this tightening cycle and could start decreasing later this year.
  2. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates too soon and wants to see sustained progress in managing inflation before making any major moves.
  3. Despite some challenges with inflation, the overall economy, especially the job market, remains strong.

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Different models produce very different estimates of the neutral interest rate (R*), so there is a wide range of possible values.
  2. No single model clearly stands out as the most accurate, which means model-based estimates are inherently uncertain.
  3. That uncertainty creates a dilemma for policymakers and analysts, who should treat model outputs cautiously and consider multiple estimates and the range of outcomes.

Reading Kuroda's Mind

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 21 Jan 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda defied market expectations and successfully maintained Japan Government Bond rates below his target, causing losses for speculators.
  2. The perception of high inflation in Japan is misleading due to factors like food and energy prices and statistical illusions.
  3. To achieve sustained inflation and reach the 2% target, Japan needs significant wage hikes, as monetary policy alone has not been sufficient.

The Math of the Housing Crunch

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The housing crisis has worsened in recent years due to factors like increased rents and higher home prices, impacting policymakers and individuals alike.
  2. The root of the housing crunch dates back to the Great Recession in 2007, leading to a significant drop in new home construction that never fully recovered.
  3. To ease the housing crunch, there is a need for an increase in the construction of various types of housing units, which has already shown some promise in the rental market.

Disinflation vs Deflation Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 159 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Disinflation means prices are still going up, but not as fast as before. It's a slowdown in inflation, which can be seen as a good sign for the economy.
  2. Deflation is when prices actually fall, which can seem good for prices but often leads to negative effects like less spending and economic slowdown.
  3. A balanced approach is crucial. Some inflation is often healthy for the economy because it encourages people to spend and invest, avoiding the risks linked to both disinflation and deflation.

The Fed Doesn’t Determine the Price of Credit; Markets Do

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve doesn't control credit prices; they are determined by the market's supply and demand. This means that even if the Fed sets interest rates, actual market rates can be higher or lower based on financial conditions.
  2. Recent events in the repo market show that when the government's borrowing increases, it can lead to tighter liquidity in banks, affecting interest rates. This reveals the limits of the Fed's ability to manage short-term capital markets.
  3. To create a strong monetary system, it's important for central banks to recognize their limits and focus on stabilizing money value. Interest rates should be left to the market, not manipulated by policymakers.

How Banks Are Adjusting for Risk

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Banks are tightening lending standards due to economic uncertainty and risk concerns
  2. Banks are responding by decreasing loan-to-value ratios, adding interest rate premiums, and shortening loan maturities
  3. Borrowing money from banks will become tougher in the coming months due to higher interest rates and stricter underwriting standards

Portfolio Update and Performance Review

Modern Value Investing • 117 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Portfolio is up 150% YTD, driven by investments in Meta Platforms and highly shorted stocks like Upstart and Opendoor.
  2. Author is getting more cautious due to rising inflation and interest rates, and has diversified investments.
  3. Author has built a 7% position in long-term treasuries as a partial hedge against market turmoil.

88mph: Fixed Interest Rate Protocol

DeFi Education • 659 implied HN points • 06 Feb 22
🔮 Crypto Interest Rates
  1. 88mph helps users get fixed interest rates instead of variable ones. This can make managing money easier and less risky.
  2. The platform connects users with popular DeFi protocols like Compound and Aave. That means users can benefit from both fixed rates and other yield options.
  3. The 88mph team is considered strong and reliable. This adds trust to the platform for users looking to invest.

Why the market has really rallied following the Fed decision?

Global Markets Investor • 79 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The market rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve made unexpected decisions, like not pushing back against expected interest rate cuts and adjusting interest rate forecasts significantly.
  2. Investors were surprised by the Fed's dovish shift towards easing and the embrace of soft landing strategies, which resulted in market excitement and continued rallies in stocks and bonds.
  3. While the market is currently optimistic due to the Fed's stance, there are warnings about potential overbought conditions and the need to watch out for sharp corrections.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part II

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 08 Sep 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Bank of Japan faces a dilemma with interest rates and the yen due to the growing gap between Japan and other countries' interest rates.
  2. Japan's weak domestic demand and a very weak yen are impacting consumer spending and business investment negatively.
  3. There is uncertainty around whether speculators will force the Bank of Japan to raise 10-year bond rates above 0.25% in response to the weak yen.