The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

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6 things to know about the stock market.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 05 Oct 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Interest Rates Economic Indicators
  1. Bear markets can last a long time, often around 19 months, and stocks need to regain previous highs to be considered out of a bear market.
  2. Stocks usually don't hit their lowest point until interest rates come down, which is expected around April 2023.
  3. It's tricky to predict the right time to buy or sell stocks; missing key market days can hurt your long-term returns, historically reducing gains significantly.

Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Market prices aren't changing due to temporary factors, leading builders to use rate buydowns instead.
  2. Builders are using rate buydowns to close the gap between mortgage rates and other interest rates in the current market.
  3. The unique market conditions make rate buydowns a strategic tool for builders, influencing the mortgage market stability.

The thing about stocks and interest rates…

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Corporate Earnings
  1. Interest rates are a big deal for the stock market, and higher rates can make investors nervous about how companies will perform. Stock prices might drop if rates keep rising.
  2. Although stocks have bounced back from lows, past market losses have affected confidence. Some experts think the economy is in decent shape, which could help weather rate increases.
  3. Bear markets usually last a while after the last rate hike, suggesting tough times ahead. But this bear market started before the first rate hike, which is something to consider for those hoping for a quicker recovery.
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Clouded Judgement 1.10.25 - Rising Rates

Clouded Judgement • 4 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Growth Interest Rates Inflation Investment Trends Market Analysis
  1. The 10-year Treasury yield is rising even as the Fed cuts rates. This is mainly due to people's expectations of ongoing inflation.
  2. Strong economic growth is encouraging investors to seek riskier assets, which pushes bond yields higher. With low unemployment and good consumer sentiment, the economy looks solid.
  3. Tariffs on imports are increasing costs for businesses, which leads to higher prices for consumers. This adds to inflation worries and drives investors to demand higher bond yields.

How long? How variable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economic Growth Interest Rates Consumer spending
  1. The effects of interest rate hikes from the Fed can take a long time to show in the economy, often around 40 months. This means changes don’t happen immediately after decisions are made.
  2. Different types of goods react to rate hikes differently. For example, inflation for durable goods can keep rising right after a hike, while nondurable goods start to decrease right away.
  3. Today’s economy is more service-oriented than it was decades ago, making it harder to control inflation. This shift means that the impact of monetary policy is felt later and inflation management becomes more complex.

The Fed's $300B Emergency Response

Apricitas Economics • 57 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
💰 Finance Emergency Response Banking System Financial Stability Market conditions Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve lent over $300B in emergency funds to American banks to stabilize the financial system.
  2. Most of the emergency lending was short-term, with a majority of the funds coming from the discount window.
  3. Reforms to the discount window have helped reduce stigma around borrowing from the Fed during financial crises.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

The Risks Still Lurking in the Banking System

Apricitas Economics • 42 implied HN points • 08 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Deposits Market Dynamics
  1. The American banking system is facing increased risks with several banks failing and many regional banks under pressure
  2. Market movements for surviving banks show negative excess returns, with declining valuations particularly for mid-sized regional banks
  3. Understanding rates risk in the banking system requires looking at exposure to long-term assets, especially in real estate lending, and the impact on uninsured deposits

European bond yields may keep rising

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Bonds Markets Economy Interest Rates
  1. European bond yields are likely to keep increasing. This means that borrowing costs in Europe might rise.
  2. In recent weeks, notable increases in bond yields have been seen in the US, UK, and Germany. This suggests changes in how investors view long-term bonds.
  3. Investors might be adjusting their expectations about the future of government bond yields, moving away from the idea that they will consistently decline.

Data Update 3 for 2022: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets • 39 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Asset Classes Investment Strategies
  1. Inflation has been high for a while, affecting how investors view the market. People are worried it won't just go away and are trying to figure out its impact on stocks and bonds.
  2. How we measure inflation can change depending on what we look at. What's important is how the market expects inflation to behave in the future, rather than just focusing on what's already happened.
  3. Interest rates and inflation are closely linked. If inflation expectations rise, it can push interest rates up, and this also affects how different investments perform, particularly when inflation is unexpected.

Japan is the playbook, not the exception

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Management Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. Japan manages extremely high debt levels through financial repression techniques, like central banks purchasing government debt and influencing bond yields.
  2. The duration mismatch between government assets and liabilities incentivizes keeping interest rates low for financial stability.
  3. Artificially low long-term bond yields in Japan lead to wealth redistribution towards older, wealthier households, potentially causing social tension.

Which economic surprises matter?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators Interest Rates Equity markets Bond Markets
  1. Markets react to surprises in economic data, not just the data itself. A deviation from consensus forecasts often triggers market movements.
  2. The size of the economic surprise matters. The impact can vary based on the type of data, with some like inflation having stronger effects.
  3. Economic indicators like inflation, unemployment, PMIs, and consumer confidence are crucial for investors to watch. Interest rates also play a significant role.

This is not what I normally do here…

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Fiscal policy
  1. Focus on empirical observations and data, rather than theoretical predictions, but sometimes theories need to be explored too.
  2. Countries with higher inflation rates tend to see their currencies depreciate over time, while carry tend to work in the short term with interest rate differentials.
  3. Aside from interest rates, fiscal policy can start to influence exchange rates, especially when countries aggressively reduce their deficits. This could potentially lead to a stronger Euro and Sterling against a weaker US Dollar.

Against Cassandras: The government debt ‘bomb’

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Monetization Interest Rates Central Banks
  1. Having high levels of government debt doesn't always lead to default or ruin.
  2. Countries like Japan have managed high debt levels for decades without catastrophic consequences.
  3. Central banks can intervene to keep debt costs low, and factors like demographics and reserve currency status can help sustain government debt.

Now that rates start to fall again…

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Interest Rates
  1. Companies with high operating leverage tend to benefit more from extended periods of lower interest rates.
  2. High operating leverage can lead to a larger increase in profits with a small rise in revenues but can also make companies more vulnerable when the economy slows down.
  3. Investors should consider looking for and investing in companies with high operating leverage as financial conditions become less constrained.

Lawler: Some Thoughts on Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 1 HN point • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Quantitative Tightening (QT) involves reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, but it is not a complete reversal of Quantitative Easing (QE).
  2. QE involved purchasing assets to influence interest rates, like putting pressure on long-term interest rates to stimulate the economy.
  3. The impact of Fed Treasury and MBS purchases has significantly altered the maturity profile of government obligations held by the private sector and influenced interest rates.

January 2019 Data Update 2: The Message from Bond Markets!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 07 Jan 19
💰 Finance Bond Markets Interest Rates Economic Growth Investment Risk Market Trends
  1. Bond markets give hints about future economic growth and inflation. It's important to watch these markets to understand the economy better.
  2. In 2018, the bond yield curve flattened, meaning short-term rates increased. This change often gets people worried about potential recessions.
  3. Both bond and stock markets reacted similarly in 2018, with investors feeling more cautious and demanding higher prices for taking risks.

What if the Fed does not cut rates this year and hikes instead?

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Investors
  1. Market investors and traders are starting to consider the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve instead of a rate cut this year due to stubborn inflation data.
  2. Recent market reactions show a significant shift in expectations, with traders now expecting 3 to 4 interest rate cuts in 2024 compared to the initial expectation of over 7 cuts.
  3. There is now a notable risk in the market as some investors are beginning to hedge against the possibility of an interest rate hike, which could lead to turbulent times if inflation data continues to surprise on the upside.

25% of the world is either in recession or is going through an economic stagnation

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Recession Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. About 25% of the world is facing recession or economic stagnation, impacting major economies like Japan, United Kingdom, Eurozone, Canada, among others.
  2. Countries such as Japan, UK, Denmark, Moldova, and Peru are in recession, experiencing economic decline over quarters.
  3. Economies in stagnation include the Euro Area, Germany, Canada, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia, facing challenges due to factors like interest rates, inflation, and oil production cuts.

Why the Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic History
  1. The Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon due to concerns about a potential inflation resurgence similar to the 1970s.
  2. The Federal Reserve in the 1970s under Arthur Burns made a significant policy mistake by cutting interest rates too soon, leading to high inflation rates later.
  3. Lessons from history emphasize the importance of not cutting interest rates prematurely, and the Fed is cautious about considering rate cuts until more data is available to assess inflation and economic indicators.

Is Gold heading towards $2,500?

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Gold Interest Rates Economy Assets
  1. Owning gold can be beneficial during uncertain economic and geopolitical times as well as when interest rates are low - except during liquidity crises.
  2. The relationship between gold prices and the real 10-year yield is important to monitor, as high real interest rates may make holding gold more expensive.
  3. In 2024, the potential scenarios for gold's price include a base case where rates go down, a bullish case with significant rate cuts, and a bearish case with stubborn inflation.

The Federal Reserve and the War on Health Freedom

Harnessing the Power of Nutrients • 0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 09
💰 Finance Federal Reserve Health Freedom Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve plays a significant role in redistributing wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich, benefiting corporations closely tied to the government.
  2. Through fractional reserve banking, the Federal Reserve creates money out of thin air, leading to inflation, which decreases the value of the dollar and disproportionately impacts the working population.
  3. The welfare state, backed by the Federal Reserve, has facilitated wars on cholesterol and health freedom, impacting public welfare under the guise of promoting it.

Inflation is here

Rob Leclerc • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 21
💰 Finance Inflation Economic Impact Mortgages Interest Rates
  1. Inflation is a looming crisis, with unseen impacts in traditional measures like CPI, causing economic and social turmoil.
  2. Low mortgage rates are fueling a housing market frenzy, with limited supply driving prices sky-high, putting pressure on buyers and sellers.
  3. Potential consequences include prolonged generational effects, hyperinflation risks, and exacerbation of wealth inequality between different age groups.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FPR/DIR/PUB/CIR/01/001

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 03 Mar 21
💰 Finance Regulatory Central Bank Covid-19 Impact Interest Rates Financial Institutions
  1. Central Bank of Nigeria has extended reduced interest rates for another twelve months on CBN intervention facilities.
  2. Financial institutions can roll over moratorium on CBN intervention facilities on a case-by-case basis.
  3. Regulatory forbearance measures are in place for restructuring credit facilities impacted by COVID-19.

What Does the Inverted Yield Curve Mean?

Argos Open Tech • 0 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Economy Markets Recession Interest Rates
  1. An inverted yield curve means short term debt interest rates are higher than long term debt, signaling an unusual economic situation.
  2. Inverted yield curves historically predict recessions, as they suggest decreasing interest rates and a potential economic downturn.
  3. While a recession may not be certain, signs like banking crises and political uncertainty indicate potential economic turbulence ahead.

Vol. 4, No. 1 — The long and short of it

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Stocks Debt Ceiling Interest Rates
  1. Valuabl reflected on their economic predictions and stock picks from 2023 - some were successful, but value investing lagged behind growth tech stocks.
  2. Rate hikes can be regressive, benefiting the rich and putting a strain on the poor through increased credit card bills and mortgage costs.
  3. 2023 was profitable overall for Valuabl, but it was a tough year to beat the market, showcasing the challenges of outperforming in the investment world.