The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Audio Debate On Japan’s Inflation, Interest Rates, and Low Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 07 Nov 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Central banks no longer target money supply because the relationship between money growth and inflation became unstable due to changes in financial markets.
  2. In Japan, weak demand for goods and services, not poor monetary policy, has kept interest rates near zero for over a quarter century.
  3. Low aggregate demand in Japan is driven by falling household incomes, lack of competitiveness, and companies hesitating to expand due to weak capacity utilization.

The Forgotten Case Against Milton Friedman

Informer • 98 implied HN points • 14 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interest Rates
  1. Milton Friedman's ideas changed economics by challenging the Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
  2. James Tobin provided an alternative theory of inflation focusing on demand shifts between sectors.
  3. Progressives didn't fully embrace Tobin's theory, leading to disagreements on tackling inflation and interest rates.

Too High for Too Long?

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Inflation measures are flawed, leading to skepticism about high interest rates, causing uncertainty for the US economy.
  2. The current rate hike cycle is more aggressive than previous cycles, potentially risking a recession in 2024.
  3. Challenges in real estate, student loan debts, and credit card debts, along with aggressive hiring, may indicate shaky ground for the US economy.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. In October, existing home sales increased slightly to an annual rate of 4.09 million, which is a small rise from September and up from last year. This shows a steady demand in the housing market.
  2. The median price for single-family homes also went up by about 2.2% compared to last year, indicating that home values are on the rise.
  3. Analysts suggest that the market's estimate of the neutral interest rate, known as R*, is around 1.5%. This estimate aligns well with several economic models, showing a consistent outlook.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Housing inventory has risen sharply toward pre-pandemic levels while existing-home sales remain depressed, which is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. Lower mortgage rates have boosted purchase mortgage applications, but rising unemployment (around 4.6%) and weak sales mean those applications haven't yet translated into substantially more closings.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (about 1–2%), with appreciation steadily slowing and reported data lagging earlier market moves.

Is Yen’s Decline Over?

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 29 Jul 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Traders in currency and bond markets lost big on bets about the weakening yen and rising US interest rates, impacting the yen's value.
  2. The US Federal Reserve's quick actions against inflation caused a change in interest rate outlook, leading to a significant drop in US treasury bond rates.
  3. Market sentiment shifted due to the revised expectations of lower interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve, impacting traders' future predictions.

Is the US economy heading for a soft landing? Part 1/2

Global Markets Investor • 59 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Soft landing in the US economy refers to a scenario where interest rates increase without causing a recession. Achieving a soft landing is challenging due to the unpredictable effects of rising rates.
  2. Current economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with data like US bank lending growth declining and bankruptcy filings increasing. These factors could lead to significant economic problems if extended.
  3. Consumer spending in the US may face limitations, as issues like high credit card debt and rising delinquencies pose risks. The Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates could impact future economic outcomes.

The Credit Card Debt Bomb is Ticking

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 17 Sep 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Total credit card debt in the US surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history, with high interest rates reaching an average of 20.68% in May 2023.
  2. Credit card delinquencies hit an 11-year high in the second quarter of 2023, with 2.77% of all credit card payments being missed.
  3. Delinquency rates for home mortgages and commercial loans are remarkably low, contrasting sharply with the concerning trend of rising credit card debt and delinquencies.

Credit Card Data Spells Trouble

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 04 Jun 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Inflation is causing consumers to shift spending towards necessary goods and services like food and healthcare.
  2. Americans are turning to credit cards to bridge the gap between rising prices and stagnant wages.
  3. High collective credit card debt and increasing delinquency rates could pose a significant threat to the overall economy.

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

Yen At ¥128.6

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 19 Apr 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The yen has weakened to ¥128.6 from earlier lows, fluctuating as markets don't move in straight lines.
  2. MOF interventions in currency markets may not have a lasting effect if the yen's decline reflects fundamentals.
  3. The interest rate gap between the US and Japan is a major factor driving the yen's decline, with investors shifting money to the US due to higher rates.

0% Rates Are Back

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 33 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates are likely to drop to 0% again. This could change how people save and borrow money.
  2. Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, may soon be replaced. This could impact future economic policies.
  3. It's important to stay informed about these changes. They can have big effects on the economy and people's finances.

¥/$ May Be Heading to ¥125

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 24 Mar 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The yen may be heading towards ¥125, which would be its weakest level in 20 years, mainly due to factors like interest rate gaps between US and Japan.
  2. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions are contributing to yen weakening, despite historical perceptions of yen as a safe-haven currency during crises.
  3. Japan's shift from trade surpluses to deficits impacts its currency, and a weak yen may no longer be seen as entirely beneficial, especially if oil prices keep rising.

Lending Protocol Taxonomy, part 2: Interest Rates

David’s Substack • 39 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates in lending protocols are usually quoted as annualized percentage rate (APR) or yield (APY).
  2. Different pricing mechanisms in lending protocols include orderbook pricing, utilization-based pricing, auctions, and manual/governance-led pricing.
  3. Protocols like Ajna and Tazz introduce innovative ways to set interest rates without relying on oracles, enabling unique functionalities.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.

Path-Breaking Research Explains the Low U.S. Consumer Gallup Poll Readings

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Interest Rates
  1. Consumers in the U.S. are feeling pessimistic despite strong economic indicators like GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and declining Misery Index, mainly due to concerns about inflation viewed as a severe economic hardship.
  2. Recent data suggests that Americans usually lag in incorporating the effects of inflation, with sentiment influenced by inflation readings observed 6 to 12 months prior, leading to a risk-averse approach among consumers.
  3. Consumer dissatisfaction might also stem from the rising prices of dining out compared to cooking at home, affecting restaurant spending and consumer sentiment.

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

It's Getting Harder to Get a Loan

The Sunday Morning Post • 39 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Banks are making it harder to get a loan due to higher interest rates and tightened lending standards across all loan categories.
  2. Rising deposit costs are influencing banks to be more selective in lending, preferring customers with deposits in their institution.
  3. Banks are tightening lending standards to protect themselves, leading to fewer loans offered and increased charges, covenants, collateral requirements, and reduced loan sizes.

Opendoor Update

Modern Value Investing • 39 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Disappointing Q4 earnings and weak Q1 2023 guidance affect Opendoor's capital base in a tough market.
  2. Changing interest rates and inflation impact Opendoor's financial outlook, causing concern.
  3. Opendoor's shrinking capital base may pose challenges in potential borrowing power and financial stability in the future.

BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Interest Rates
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

Paul Schmelzing Is Coming to Berkeley to Talk About Interest Rates since 1310!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
  2. Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
  3. Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.

6 things to know about the stock market.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 05 Oct 22
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Bear markets can last a long time, often around 19 months, and stocks need to regain previous highs to be considered out of a bear market.
  2. Stocks usually don't hit their lowest point until interest rates come down, which is expected around April 2023.
  3. It's tricky to predict the right time to buy or sell stocks; missing key market days can hurt your long-term returns, historically reducing gains significantly.

The thing about stocks and interest rates…

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates are a big deal for the stock market, and higher rates can make investors nervous about how companies will perform. Stock prices might drop if rates keep rising.
  2. Although stocks have bounced back from lows, past market losses have affected confidence. Some experts think the economy is in decent shape, which could help weather rate increases.
  3. Bear markets usually last a while after the last rate hike, suggesting tough times ahead. But this bear market started before the first rate hike, which is something to consider for those hoping for a quicker recovery.

Running on Empty

The Last Bear Standing • 32 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is mostly just moving money around rather than actually reducing the money supply. This means the impact on inflation might not be as significant as it seems.
  2. The Reverse Repo Facility, which helps maintain liquidity in financial markets, is running low. As it decreases, there could be less stability in short-term funding.
  3. While some people say the situation is either a disaster or not a problem at all, it's more complex. We might see tighter banking conditions and more market volatility as the Fed continues its quantitative tightening efforts.

The Other Lever

The Last Bear Standing • 97 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Understanding balance sheet policy is crucial in modern monetary policy.
  2. Recent balance sheet movements have had a direct influence on money supply.
  3. Significant shifts in the balance sheet policy can impact inflation and banking sector stability.